Isku Iraniin

[Teräsmies]

Joku tai jokin pidättelee niitä. Jenkit ainakin viimeksi mutta silti, joku siinä mättää. Pelkääkö ne että arabit yhdistyy ja Israel luhistuu? Kumman alistuneita ne arabi valtiot tuntuu olevan mutta kaitpa se kuuden päivä sota ja Yom Kippur opetti kuka määrää.

Kannattaisi muistaa etteivät iranilaiset eivät ole arabeita. Arabivaltiot olisivat erittäin kiitollisia Israelilaisille jos nämä pommittaisivat Irania koska he eivät siihen kykene.

 

[Sardaukar]

Mitä Iraniin tulee, niin esim. Saudi Arabia ja Israel ovat käytännössä liittolaisia ko. asiassa...

Lähi-Itä ei ole kovin yksinkertainen paikka.

 

[aj77]

Nyt alkavissa neuvotteluissa Iran on ilmoittanut tavoitteekseen neuvotella rikastuslaitteiden laadusta ennemmin kuin määrästä. Obama pitää suurena saavutuksenaan että kuuden kuukauden ajan Iran ei ota käyttöönsä kehittyneimpiä rikastuslaitteita. Iran voitti tämän pelin. Länsi mokasi kun antoi löysää. Rikastuslaitteet toimivat yötäpäivää ja ainoa mistä neuvotellaan on niiden laatu. Ei määrä.

 

[baikal]

Iran ei voita mitään. Epäilen, että Venäjän nähdyt toimet Krimillä linkittyvät nekin Iraniin...siten, että ketju Syyria-Iran-kohtalo on suunnilleen taputeltu. Iran nyt vaan sattuu istumaan niin ison öljylätäkön päällä, että sen on kuuluttava pahan akseliin tästä eteenpäinkin. En usko, että Usa on tyytyväinen Iranin demokraattiseen kehitykseen ja nyt kun Iran vielä todistetusti puuhaa joukkotuhoaseen parissa, niin syntitaakka on todella kompromettoivaa laatua. Iranin retoriset dollari-irtiotot ovat myös asioita, joita ei jätetä niikseen.

 

[aj77]

Riippuu millä mitataan. Jos ydinohjelman käynnissä pitäminen on mitta, niin Iranhan vie länttä miten haluaa. Nyt varsinkin,kun Putin kostaa omat pakotteet entistä suuremmalla tuella Iranille. .

Tuo Israelin haluttomuus Iranin operaatiolle johtuu kansan tuen puutteesta. Ja armeijan. Oliko peräti 70 prosenttia upseereista vastaan.

 

[aj77]

Israel laukaisi uuden satelliitin kiertoradalle vakoilemaan Irania.Ofek 10 satelliitin laukaisua oltiin viivytetty diplomaattisista syistä Iranin neuvottelujen alla. Nyt Israel laukaisi sen vastapainoksi Usan haluttomuudelle keskustella Iranin ydinaseohjelmasta tulevissa neuvotteluissa.

Tämä kertoo kuinka kaukana osapuolet ovat toisistaan. Näissä kuuden maan neuvotteluissa ei ole keskusteltu ollenkaan Ydinaseohjelmasta. Ainoastaan rikastamisesta ja reaktoreista. Iran on edelleen sitä mieltä että heillä ei ole ydinaseohjelmaa niin silloin ei ole mitään keskusteltavaakaan. Israel on vaatinut Usaa nostamaan kissan pöydälle seuraavissa neuvotteluissa. Israel ei ole saanut myöskään Usalta vastausta kuinka sen neuvottelijat reagoivat viimeisimpään tiedustelutietoon jonka vahvisti Israel, englanti, hollanti että Iran on kiihdyttänyt ydinaseohjelmaansa jota sillä ei ole.

Obaman politiikka on kummallista, mutta kun tutustuu hänen elämäänsä ja ideologiaansa ymmärtää mikä on maailman, Amerikan, Israelin kohtalo oleva ellei Israel toimi. Obamalla on vajaa kaksivuotta aikaa toteuttaa palvomansa isänsä suuri unelma. Se onkin hurja unelma.

 

[aj77]

Iranin Stealth minisukellusvene upposi kun harjoittelivat lentotukialuksen upottamista. Kiinalaiset ja venäläiset kaikessa hiljaisuudessa tulivat apuun,mutta jättivät homman kesken. Kuulemma kukaan 10-hengen miehistöstä ei voinut mitenkään selvitä hengissä. Iran saa itse päättää riskeeraako salaisuutensa paljastumisen vai ei yrittämällä sitä nostaa.

Aiemmin uutisoitiin Usan lentotukialus replikasta jonka sanottiin olevan elokuvalavaste Iranin elokuvateollisuudelle. Se mikä jäi uutisoimatta että sen jälkeen 27.huhtikuuta laivaston komentaja Ali Fadavi kertoi mielipiteensä että harjoitella pitää lentotukialuksen upottamista. Eilen hän antoi vielä sotaisempia lausuntoja : They [Americans] know nothing. We have been making and sinking replicas of US destroyers, frigates and warships for long years, and we have sunk the replica of their vessels in 50 seconds through a series of operational measures."

Nyt yksi heidän salaisista aseistaan on pohjassa.

 

[jee3z]

Mielestäni kirjoittelin tänne eilen mutta viestiäni ei näy missään..

 

[aj77]

Hengellinen johtaja puhuu kovia. Ohjusten massatuotantoa.


Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threw a large spanner in the works of nuclear diplomacy Sunday, May 11. Less than a week before the next round of talks with the six powers, he said: “The Revolutionary Guards should definitely… not be satisfied with the present level [of missile production]. They should mass produce.”
Referring to Western concerns that Iran is designing missiles able to carry nuclear warheads, Khamenei said: “They [the West] expect us to limit our missile program while they constantly threaten Iran with military action. So this is a stupid, idiotic expectation.”
Khamenei spoke during a visit to the aeronautics fair organized by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which are responsible for Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
In recent weeks, Washington, Tehran, Moscow and the International Atomic Energy in Vienna have pumped out a stream of optimistic reports about the progress made in drafting a comprehensive nuclear accord and Tehran’s faithful observance of the interim deal reach last November.


Se mikä on jäänyt vähälle huomiolle täällä lännessä on Iranilaisten kovanlinjan kannattajien lausunnot ja mahdolliset toimet.Tuo Ajatollahin ohjusuho taitaa liittyä myös tähän. Taiteillaan kovan linjan ja lännen neuvottelujen välissä. Aina kun Rouhani saapuu takaisin Iraniin häntä on vastassa mielenosoitus.Kenkää lentää ja varmaan sukkaakin. Huhujen mukaan kovan linjan vallankumouskaartin komentajat ovat uhonneet että eivät ikinä luovu ydinaseesta. Rouhanin neuvottelut ei käy laatuun.

Ajatollah yrittää taiteilla niin,että harhautetaan länttä tässä muka neuvotteluissa ja jatketaan ydinaseprojektia. Jos se ei onnistu niin onko Iranissa sotilasvallankaappauksen vaara?
Siinäpä kysymys.

 

[VanhaPate]

Jokohan joku iski?

'Deadly fire' at Iran military explosives facility

A fire and explosion at a military explosives facility near the Iranian capital Tehran has left at least two people dead, reports say.

The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (Isna) said the fire was in an "explosive materials production unit".

A pro-opposition website reported a huge blast near the Parchin military site, south-east of the capital, but this was not confirmed.

Parchin has been linked to Iran's controversial nuclear programme.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been given access to the complex since 2005.

Analysts say the IAEA suspects Iran of experimenting with explosives capable of triggering a nuclear weapon at Parchin.

Windows shattered

The pro-reform website Sahamnews said the explosion on Sunday evening was so intense that windows of buildings 15km (nine miles) away were shattered.

The glare from the blast could also be seen from a great distance, the report added.

Isna, quoting Iran's defence industries organisation, said: "Unfortunately, due to the incident, two workers of this production unit lost their lives."

It gave no further details.

Last month, the IAEA said more activity had been conducted at the Parchin military base.

It said Iran had also missed a deadline to answer further questions about its nuclear programme.

Iran is in negotiations with six world powers on a permanent agreement over its nuclear industry.

The West suspects Iran of trying to develop a nuclear weapon but Iranian leaders insist they only want atomic energy.

Talks are focused on lifting Western sanctions in exchange for a scaling-back of Iran's uranium enrichment programme, and a deadline for the agreement has been set for 24 November.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29508534

Midnight Explosion at Iran’s Alleged Nuclear Weapons Site

Parchin blast blew out windows for miles

Around midnight on Oct. 6, local sources in Tehran reported a massive explosion at the Parchin military complex in Iran. The explosion shattered windows in a 15-kilometer radius and created a huge bright flash in the night sky.

Any explosion at Parchin is a big deal. For the central reason that it’s a major site for Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. The state-run Fars News Agency confirmed the explosion in a short announcement. The agency stated the “fire” was the result of an incident at an explosive production facility and two employees had been killed.

Military police and security forces blocked access routes leading to the complex, and sirens from firefighting and medical emergency vehicles could be heard throughout the night.

To be sure, we don’t know if the explosion was an accident or a deliberate attack. Any going-ons at Parchin are also highly secretive. But it’s an odd time for an explosion. The blast occurred in the middle of the night at the end of the Muslim Feast of Sacrifice—an important holiday in Iran—when few employees would likely be there.

Parchin is also a key target for anyone trying to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. It’s one of the most important gridlocks in the recent nuclear negotiations between Iran, the United States and the rest of the P5+1 working group. Late last month, Israel—which is not part of the P5+1—alleged Iran carried out nuclear implosion tests at Parchin.

Parchin is one of the perennial mysteries of Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency inspected the facility in 2003, searching for evidence of explosive chambers and research facilities used to develop triggers for nuclear bombs. The IAEA didn’t find proof after a limited search and requested further access—which Tehran denied.

In 2012, satellite imagery indicated a large clean-up effort, including what appeared to be the washing of the site and the demolition of several buildings. The IAEA still requests detailed inspections of Parchin.

The Parchin military complex was first established in 1910 to produce explosive and gunpowder for the Persian army. Iran renovated and expanded the site in 1997 to produce rocket fuel, advanced explosives, tanks and missiles.

Today, Parchin hosts several industrial complexes and enough housing for at least 500 military and civilian personnel.

Explosions and sabotage efforts are not unprecedented at Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian national police commander Gen. Ahmadi Moghaddam said in 2012 that Tehran regularly anticipates sabotage and explosions.

Less than two month ago, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have arrested 13 “nuclear terrorists” who intended to sabotage nuclear facilities. Parchin was subject of another explosion in mid-2007, which killed five employees. We do know that the U.S. and Israel managed to sabotage Iranian centrifuges at Natanz using the Stuxnet virus.

Of course, the U.S. and Israel never owned up to unleashing Stuxnet. There may have been other incidents, or maybe not. Iranian officials will also likely deny any sabotage attempts if they occur—at least initially—as this would put pressure on Tehran to retaliate.

In 2013, Iranian officials announced the capture of several “nuclear terrorists” who blew up several power lines in 2012 near the uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow. If the officials were telling the truth, they took a long time until mentioning it.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/mi...ans-alleged-nuclear-weapons-site-1047e064df30

 

[Teräsmies]

Mielenkiintoista kuinka viime vuotisessa sopimuksessa Iran lupasi ettei käynnistä plutoniumin valmistukseen kelpaavaa Arakin reaktoria, mutta eiväthän he tarvitse sitä koska rikastetun uraanin valmistukseen tarvittavat sentrifugit on melkoisen helppo kätkeä vakoilevilta silmiltä.


Kukaan ei esimerkiksi tiennyt että Pohjois-Korealla oli 2000 sentrifugia pyörimässä ennen kuin P-Korealaiset päättivät paljastaa kyseisen laitoksen. Iranissa tuollaisen laitoksen kätkeminen lienee helpompaa.

The scientist, Siegfried S. Hecker, a Stanford professor who previously directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, said in an interview that he had been “stunned” by the sophistication of the new plant, where he saw “hundreds and hundreds” of centrifuges that had just been installed in a recently gutted building that had housed an aging fuel fabrication center, and that were operated from what he called “an ultra-modern control room.” The North Koreans claimed 2,000 centrifuges were already installed and running, he said.

American officials know that the plant did not exist in April 2009, when the last Americans and international inspectors were thrown out of the country.

http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3273/nork-enrichment-facility

Tässä taulukko kuinka paljon plutoniumia tai uraania tarvitaan pommia varten.

 

[Teräsmies]

Tässä vielä yksi artikkeli joka todistaa etteivät Iranilaiset ole halukkaita luopumaan sentifugeista.

(Reuters) - U.S. nuclear negotiators should stop focusing on Iran's number of centrifuges and should push for a deal, which could help build confidence between Iran and the coalition of countries fighting against Islamic State militants, a senior Iranian politician said on Wednesday.

"This is something like a trivial matter and we should not bargain over trivial matters," Iran's Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani told a news conference in Geneva. "This is not going to be useful, this is not going to solve any real problems."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/us-iran-nuclear-larijani-idUSKCN0I40Z120141015

 

[JOKO]

Kuinka paljon yksi sentrifugi tuottaa rikastettua uraania? Onko 2000 sentrifugia paljon vai vähän?

 

[Teräsmies]

Kuinka paljon yksi sentrifugi tuottaa rikastettua uraania? Onko 2000 sentrifugia paljon vai vähän?

Olli Heinosen mukaan saisivat tarpeeksi materiaali ainakin kahta pommia varten. Kiinalaisten CHIC-4 imploosioase vaatii joidenkin lähteiden mukaan vähintään 10 kiloa 90% rikastettua uraania ja tuota kyseistä imploosioasetta AQ Khan kaupitteli Iranilaisille sekä Gaddafille sentrifugien ohella.

2000 centrifuges when operating at full capacity are sufficient to annually produce 1.8 tons of low enriched uranium (LEU) or at 3.5% U-235. This projected output is consistent with the needs of a small LWR currently under construction that was also shown to Dr. Hecker. North Korea may however face some material and quality limitations that would restrict enrichment output.[5] On the other hand, such an enrichment plant can also easily be used for military purposes. There are two options to proceed with to make high enriched uranium (HEU): reconfigure the current 2000 centrifuge installation or add 800 new centrifuges for that purpose. An additional 800 centrifuges would be able to convert annually 1.8 tons of LEU to 40 kgs of HEU, an amount sufficient for the country to generate the necessary fissile material needed for one or two new nuclear bombs. Currently, North Korea is estimated to have between 25-40 kg of plutonium stocks, an earlier ingredient it had used to build and test its first bomb in 2006. Should North Korea use its current 2000-strong centrifuge capacity on an uninterrupted basis to produce 1.8 tons LEU annually, and have additional 800 centrifuges to enriched LEU further to HEU, we can expect its HEU stocks to exceed its current plutonium stockpile after three years.

http://38north.org/2011/06/heinonen062211/



Artikkeli vuodelta 2004.

They have yielded dramatic evidence of China's long-suspected role in transferring nuclear know-how to Pakistan in the early 1980s. The designs were later resold to Libya by Pakistani scientists through the trading network that is the focus of an international investigation.

One weapons expert who has seen the Chinese blueprints said: "It was just what you'd have on the factory floor. It tells you what torque to use on the bolts and what glue to use on the parts." The designs were "very, very old" but "very well engineered".

Weapons experts expressed surprise at what they described as a wholesale transfer of sensitive nuclear technology to another country. Notes in the package suggested that China had assisted Pakistani scientists on the fine points of bomb-building over several years.

The blueprints, which were flown to Washington last month, have been analysed by experts from the US, Britain and the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency.

Weapons experts in Libya also found large amounts of equipment used in making enriched uranium, the essential ingredient of nuclear weapons.

That discovery helped expose the nuclear trading network that officials say funneled technology and parts to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

The central figure in the network, Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, acknowledged last month that he had passed nuclear secrets to others.

The selling of weapons designs is seen as the most serious activity linked to the network. The Chinese documents contain most of the information needed to assemble a bomb, assuming the builder could acquire plutonium or enriched uranium, experts confirm.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3491329.stm

 

[ctg]

Kuinka paljon yksi sentrifugi tuottaa rikastettua uraania? Onko 2000 sentrifugia paljon vai vähän?

Manhattan Projekti käytti 22 000 sentrifugia tuottamaan kilokramman rikastettua uraania päivässä 44 miljoonalla taalalla. Joten kaksi tuhatta on hyvin, hyvin vähän tuohon tarkoitukseen. Ja huomaa nyt että tämä sama asia on mennyt kohta kolme, neljä kymmentä vuotta eteenpäin samalla tavalla.

 

[aj77]

Manhattan Projekti käytti 22 000 sentrifugia tuottamaan kilokramman rikastettua uraania päivässä 44 miljoonalla taalalla. Joten kaksi tuhatta on hyvin, hyvin vähän tuohon tarkoitukseen. Ja huomaa nyt että tämä sama asia on mennyt kohta kolme, neljä kymmentä vuotta eteenpäin samalla tavalla.

Millälaissa samallatavalla? Sentrifugreiden tuotanto tehoissa on eroa. On kehittynyttä ja vanhempaa mallia. Manhattan projektin aikaisten myllyjen tuotantoteho ei varmaankaan ole samaa kuin nykyisten tai edes kymmeniä vuosia vanhojen. Ainakin uutisoitu on Iranin uuden tyyppisten sentrifugereiden hankinnasta jolloin Netanjahu taas saanut syyn möykätä.

 

[Teräsmies]

Millälaissa samallatavalla? Sentrifugreiden tuotanto tehoissa on eroa. On kehittynyttä ja vanhempaa mallia. Manhattan projektin aikaisten myllyjen tuotantoteho ei varmaankaan ole samaa kuin nykyisten tai edes kymmeniä vuosia vanhojen. Ainakin uutisoitu on Iranin uuden tyyppisten sentrifugereiden hankinnasta jolloin Netanjahu taas saanut syyn möykätä.

Tuossahan ylhäällä olevassa tekstissä Olli Heinonen kertoo kuinka paljon pommiin tarvittaan uraania 2000 sentrifugia pystyy nykyään tuottamaan.

There are two options to proceed with to make high enriched uranium (HEU): reconfigure the current 2000 centrifuge installation or add 800 new centrifuges for that purpose. An additional 800 centrifuges would be able to convert annually 1.8 tons of LEU to 40 kgs of HEU, an amount sufficient for the country to generate the necessary fissile material needed for one or two new nuclear bombs.

 

[Teräsmies]

ay Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

As the Nov. 24 deadline for Iran and the great powers to negotiate a comprehensive nuclear agreement approaches, both sides may be confronted with momentous choices. What happens if the decade-long search for an arms-control accord falters? Although there is little evidence that the West is contemplating alternative strategies, important actors in Iran are beginning to consider life after diplomatic failure.

Since the exposure of its illicit nuclear program in 2002, the Islamic republic has wrestled with a contradictory mandate: how to expand its nuclear infrastructure while sustaining a measure of economic growth. The reformist president Mohammad Khatami avoided debilitating economic sanctions by suspending nuclear activities. Then came the tumultuous presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which privileged nuclear empowerment over economic vitality. Current president Hassan Rouhani has succeeded in negotiating an interim agreement — the Joint Plan of Action — but he faces diminishing prospects for a final accord. Iran has finally come to the crossroads, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many hard-line elements seem ready to forge ahead with their nuclear ambitions even if they collide with economic imperatives.

Artikkeli kokonaisuudessaan täällä.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...5cea2c-5fb5-11e4-91f7-5d89b5e8c251_story.html

 

[Teräsmies]

PARIS — Secretary of State John F. Kerry on Wednesday said it would be more difficult to reach a deal with Iran curbing its ability to build nuclear weapons if negotiations extend beyond a Nov. 24 deadline.

“I want to get this done,” Kerry said during a series of meetings in which the Iranian negotiations figured prominently. “And we are driving toward the finish with a view of trying to get it done.”

Kerry said Iran is entitled to develop its nuclear program for civilian, not military, use.

“They have a right to a peaceful program but not a track to a bomb,” Kerry said. “We believe it is pretty easy to prove to the world that a plan is peaceful.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...5428ce-63a7-11e4-ab86-46000e1d0035_story.html

Samaan aikaan toisaalla...

Yhdysvaltain presidentin Barack Obaman kerrotaan olleen salaa yhteydessä Iranin johtoon.

http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2014110618814696_ul.shtml


Milloinkohan Iran pääsee testaamaan ydinasetta?

 

[Teräsmies]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium gas has grown by 8 percent to nearly 8.4 tonnes in about two months, U.N. atomic inspectors say, an amount world powers probably will want to see cut under any nuclear deal with Tehran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a confidential report on Iran to IAEA member states on Friday, less than three weeks before a Nov. 24 deadline for Iran and six world powers to resolve their stand-off over Tehran's atomic activities.

Iran's holding of refined uranium gas is one of the factors that could determine how much time it would need for any attempt to assemble nuclear weapons. Iran says it has no such goal but the West wants verifiable action by the Islamic Republic to make sure it cannot produce an atomic bomb any time soon.

Iran and the six states will meet in Vienna from Nov. 18 to try to seal a long-term agreement to end a dispute that over the last decade has often raised fears of a new Middle East war.

The IAEA report said Iran's stock of uranium gas refined to a fissile concentration of up to 5 percent stood at 8,390 kg, a rise of 625 kg since its previous report in September.

http://news.yahoo.com/irans-uranium-stockpile-grows-deadline-nuclear-deal-100329181.html