fade
Eversti
Persujen pakolaispuheet ovat yhtä järkeviä kuin kylähullun puheet Lotossa huijaamisesta. Uutisessa puhutaan tohtori-tason osaajista, ei Irakista lomamatkalle lähteneistä kouluttamattomista 20v.
Hienosti ymmärretty.
Suomen itäraja vuotaa koko ajan, tohtorit toki jatkavat muualle.
fade
Eversti
Vaihtoehtoja mitä saattaa tapahtua kuukauden sisällä tai toukokuun loppuun mennessä, kun Venäjän armeija ei saavuta (oikeasti) tavoitteitaan:
--
1) Russia might propose a peace deal, a new one, of some sort. Whether that's a promise to cease fire for a time, a push to make concessions for a part of Ukraine, while conceding control of other currently occupied regions back to Ukraine, though Ukraine seems unlikely to accept this, or much of a ceasefire at all, until Russia is pushed back to it's pre-war boundaries, or further.
2) Russia might already be making plans to bolster it's force here with a mass conscription of troops, this opens a can of worms, but at this point, if that does happen, that can't really change much on the ground for around two months. What happens between that time would likely be Russia attempting to shorten their fronts, and consolidate their gains the best they can.
3) This possibility has gained unfortunate traction in recent days, the possibility of tactical nuclear weapon use has been hinted at numerous times in the past, and does not seem like something the Russian government seems entirely reluctant to do at this point. Such an action, seen in the eyes of the Russian General staff, and likely Putin, might seem less consequential than a full Russian retreat from Ukraine. The west seems to be under the impression that since the world has maintained a moratorium on using such weapons since 1945, Russia would never do so, this assumption to me is foolish, and might lead to problems.
4) Nothing fundamentally changes?
5) Ukraine keeps pressure on as Russias offensive collapses, driving them back, Russia offers a cease fire while they try to get manpower together with mobilization, Ukraine either accepts it and digs in for a third offensive, or refuses and keeps pushing back. Eventually Ukraine is such an embarassment that Russia withdraws and a non agreed peace returns, leaving them in defacto war state as Russia cannot agree to surrender.
--
Ajatus siitä, että Nato ei tee lisätoimia, jos 3. kohta tapahtuu on hiukan outo. Sehän tarkoittaisi, että ampumalla 1-2 taktisen ydinasetta kriisialueelle olet lähellä voittoa ja voit sanella ehtosi. Samalla Naton (jopa EU) olemassaolo olisi uhattuna. Ja Kiina voisi valloittaa Taiwanin ampumalla sinne pari taktista ydinpommia johonkin nurkkaan.
--
1) Russia might propose a peace deal, a new one, of some sort. Whether that's a promise to cease fire for a time, a push to make concessions for a part of Ukraine, while conceding control of other currently occupied regions back to Ukraine, though Ukraine seems unlikely to accept this, or much of a ceasefire at all, until Russia is pushed back to it's pre-war boundaries, or further.
2) Russia might already be making plans to bolster it's force here with a mass conscription of troops, this opens a can of worms, but at this point, if that does happen, that can't really change much on the ground for around two months. What happens between that time would likely be Russia attempting to shorten their fronts, and consolidate their gains the best they can.
3) This possibility has gained unfortunate traction in recent days, the possibility of tactical nuclear weapon use has been hinted at numerous times in the past, and does not seem like something the Russian government seems entirely reluctant to do at this point. Such an action, seen in the eyes of the Russian General staff, and likely Putin, might seem less consequential than a full Russian retreat from Ukraine. The west seems to be under the impression that since the world has maintained a moratorium on using such weapons since 1945, Russia would never do so, this assumption to me is foolish, and might lead to problems.
4) Nothing fundamentally changes?
5) Ukraine keeps pressure on as Russias offensive collapses, driving them back, Russia offers a cease fire while they try to get manpower together with mobilization, Ukraine either accepts it and digs in for a third offensive, or refuses and keeps pushing back. Eventually Ukraine is such an embarassment that Russia withdraws and a non agreed peace returns, leaving them in defacto war state as Russia cannot agree to surrender.
--
Ajatus siitä, että Nato ei tee lisätoimia, jos 3. kohta tapahtuu on hiukan outo. Sehän tarkoittaisi, että ampumalla 1-2 taktisen ydinasetta kriisialueelle olet lähellä voittoa ja voit sanella ehtosi. Samalla Naton (jopa EU) olemassaolo olisi uhattuna. Ja Kiina voisi valloittaa Taiwanin ampumalla sinne pari taktista ydinpommia johonkin nurkkaan.
Kaikki sujuu täysin suunnitelman mukaan!
Tässä tämänpäiväisiä ryssän foorumilta:
And now several TG people say around 1000 are trapped in Oskil, and another 1000 in Oleksandrivka (Kherson oblast), and are being systematically annihilated.
They say UA sources are confirming.
If true, this weekend sounds like the bloodiest one yet.
One can hope they surrender, even though that violates Kievs orders.
----
Many Donbass telegram channels have turned into outright gore forums, seriously. One almost gets desensitized to seeing dead people, and you only react when they look particularly gruesome.
Not a wild guess that several hundred UA soldiers perish each day, only along a part of the Donbass front. And they keep sending in more.
Yesterday some OSINTers said that UA started sending "territorial defense" troops to the east
----
AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
·
10h
3 possible COA(courses of actions) and encirclements
1)Around Kharkov
2)Smaller Donbass encirclement
3)Larger Donbass encirclement
Viimeksi muokattu:
fade
Eversti
Venäjän rajan saa ylittää, jos matkustusasiakirjat ovat kunnossa. Venäläisiltä vaaditaan viisumi. En tiedä miksi tätä pitäisi muuttaa ts. muuttaa Suomi suoraan vihamieliseksi Venäjälle? Jos sieltä joku FSB-kaveri tulee rajan yli vakoilemaan niin tulkoon - Suomessa on lait, joiden puitteissa voivat tehdä mitä haluavat ja poliisi voi ottaa kiinni, jos lakeja räikeästi rikkovat.
Aloittakoot venäläiset itse rajojen rikkomiset/sotatoimet Suomea vastaan, jos niin haluavat - Suomen ei pidä kärjistää tilannetta sulkemalla itä-raja siviileiltä, kun emme ole vielä sodassa.
Eikä sieltä ole tulossa massoittain pakolaisia (mm. irakilaiset tajusivat mitä tapahtuu), saati venäläisiä, kuten Persut esittävät - valitettavasti suurin osa ihmisistä haluaa asua kotiseudullaan viimeiseen asti. Tämä on näkynyt Ukrainasta, kun porukka jää väkisin sotatoimialueelle (koti on siellä). Sitä paitsi Suomessa on nyt lähes vihamielinen ympäristö venäjää puhuville.
Joo, mehän tässä tilanteessa tosiaan kärjistämme, haemme Natoon ja kaikkea.
Pakolaistulva on ihan testattu hybriditoimi Venäjän toimesta meidänkin rajalla(ja muualla Euroopassa), mutta mitäpä noita miettimään. Pahojen persujen juttuja varmasti.
Kaikki sujuu täysin suunnitelman mukaan!
Tässä tämänpäiväisiä ryssän foorumilta:
And now several TG people say around 1000 are trapped in Oskil, and another 1000 in Oleksandrivka (Kherson oblast), and are being systematically annihilated.
They say UA sources are confirming.
If true, this weekend sounds like the bloodiest one yet.
One can hope they surrender, even though that violates Kievs orders.
----
Many Donbass telegram channels have turned into outright gore forums, seriously. One almost gets desensitized to seeing dead people, and you only react when they look particularly gruesome.
Not a wild guess that several hundred UA soldiers perish each day, only along a part of the Donbass front. And they keep sending in more.
Yesterday some OSINTers said that UA started sending "territorial defense" troops to the east
----
AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
·
10h
3 possible COA(courses of actions) and encirclements
1)Around Kharkov
2)Smaller Donbass encirclement
3)Larger Donbass encirclement
Katso liite: 61053
Ukraine of course continues its escalations into the asymmetric / terror warfare, hitting various sites on Russian territory. There’s still no certainty of how they’re doing it apart from clues like the fact that several ‘saboteurs’ were arrested in Russia by the FSB yesterday, who were working for Ukrainian SBU. One was in Crimea, had explosives and was planning on bombing a shopping mall in Simferopol.
Many in Russia understandably are feeling fed up, and some believe Russia may eventually designate Ukraine as a terrorist state, which could open pathways for eventual formal declaration of war and mobilization, if need be.
Russia is likely to formally recognize Ukraine as a terrorist state The assassination attempts on Russian state media figures, which the FSB links to Ukraine’s SBU, and the attacks in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region are the pretexts for this move.
Margarita Semonyan, head of RT/Sputnik, added her voice to the mix. Western critics and some pro-Russian ‘maximalists’ believe she’s slowly softening the Russian public for the eventual acceptance of nuclear use.
fade
Eversti
Rajan saa kiinni aseettomilta siviileiltä todella helposti kriisitilanteessa. Jos haluat puhua "hypridi"-vaikuttamista ja kuinka se on oleellista nykytilanteessa, kun alla olevia kuvia jaetaan niin ...Joo, mehän tässä tilanteessa tosiaan kärjistämme, haemme Natoon ja kaikkea.
Pakolaistulva on ihan testattu hybriditoimi Venäjän toimesta meidänkin rajalla(ja muualla Euroopassa), mutta mitäpä noita miettimään. Pahojen persujen juttuja varmasti.
Persut eivät ole pahoja, suurin osa on vain ... Toki se myönnettäköön, että Halla-Aho on erittäin hyvä kirjoittaja, sitä ei voi kukaan kieltää.
Ps. en enää vastaile tänne ohi ketjun aiheesta. Persut puhuvat pakolaisista kuin erään tv-sarjan kaveri ...
Viimeksi muokattu:
fade
Eversti
Zelenskyy: Some will wait for an international tribunal, others will wait “for the night” to take revenge on occupiers
Denys Karlovskyi – Friday, 29 April 2022, 20:49
www.pravda.com.ua
According to Zelensky: "I know that there are people in our society who will seek out every [Russian soldier who has committed mass murders of Ukrainian civilians - ed.].
Nothing can be done about it. This is not a threat. I’m telling you frankly, as a father, as a husband. I know that there are many people who feel like that in Ukraine.
Some will wait for an international tribunal, while others will wait for the night, as we say. That’s all there is to it."
fade
Eversti
F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’
Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.
- A former F-35 test pilot weighed in on the fighter jet’s performance in the Ukraine conflict and how it represents a massive leap forward from Cold War-era aircraft.
- Billie Flynn contends the F-35 is so different from Soviet Cold War fighters that pilots used to the latter would be unable to transition to the F-35.
- Flynn also thinks the F-35 is the most survivable aircraft for the dangerous skies over Ukraine.
Furthermore, Flynn believes the jet’s network of sensors, and ability to share data with other aircraft and ground assets, would make it an efficient air-defense killer, identifying S-400s and similar platforms and then killing them with ruthless efficiency. Flynn asserts that while nobody wants NATO dragged into the war, if it was, NATO would “completely destroy the Russian forces.”
Aika outoa, ettei muka neuvostohävittäjän pilottia pystytä kouluttamaan F-35:een... Aikamoista aliarviointia. Erilainen laitehan se on, mutta mitä sitten... Ei ne lentäjät tyhmiä ole vaan parhaista parhaimpia.--
F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’
Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.finance.yahoo.com
- A former F-35 test pilot weighed in on the fighter jet’s performance in the Ukraine conflict and how it represents a massive leap forward from Cold War-era aircraft.
- Billie Flynn contends the F-35 is so different from Soviet Cold War fighters that pilots used to the latter would be unable to transition to the F-35.
- Flynn also thinks the F-35 is the most survivable aircraft for the dangerous skies over Ukraine.
Furthermore, Flynn believes the jet’s network of sensors, and ability to share data with other aircraft and ground assets, would make it an efficient air-defense killer, identifying S-400s and similar platforms and then killing them with ruthless efficiency. Flynn asserts that while nobody wants NATO dragged into the war, if it was, NATO would “completely destroy the Russian forces.”
Aikansa siinä tietysti kestää, joten ei muuta kuin tuumasta toimeen! Eri asia on sitten se, että haluaako jenkit noin arvokkaita koneita antaa Ukrainan käyttöön.
arix
Respected Leader
Aika iso riski että joku pilotti saadaan lentämään väärälle puolelle rajaa tutkittavaksi.
Rahalla, kiristämällä, jne...
Ympäristöministeri Emma Karin puoliso ja vasemmistoliiton kansanedustaja Jaakko Laakson poika.
Siihen kategoriaan ui hienosti, pojasta polvi paranee...sanotaan..Täällä pitäisi olla VittuMitäPaskaa-vaihtoehto noissa tykkäyksissä
fade
Eversti
Ukrainian Officer's Defiant Dispatch From Inside Mariupol's Besieged Steel Plant
Ukrainians holed up at the Azovstal Steel Plant are running low on food and ammunition, but they say they will fight to the very end.
www.thedrive.com
--
The Azovstal plant, located in the heart of Mariupol, “is larger than some major European cities,” he said. “From here, we have fire control over the enemy to a depth of 6-8 km. The enemy is still trying to storm, but suffers losses and retreats.”
Krotevych ticks off a list of Russian forces and military equipment he said his forces have destroyed. They include about 1,200 troops killed, scores of tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed, and even an Su-25 damaged.
As he readies for another dangerous night inside the Azovstal plant, Krotevych waxes philosophical about how much longer the Azov Regiment can hold out.
“Sometimes we are surprised by our endurance,” he said. “This is a very philosophical question, which depends only on the spirit of our soldiers.”
However, he said, “the Azov fighters are ‘gods of war’ and these words are not exaggerated. If you've seen videos of fights, you realize that most fierce fights are not documented. However, even what is there is beyond higher professionalism.”