https://t.me/playcivilization/1112
Game of Civilization
#War
#Ukraine
#Operations
To attempt to encircle Avdiivka. So, first, let's remember
the previously made forecast , quote:
Local attacks, very limited in terms of objectives, are taking place with the aim of occupying more advantageous defensive positions where it makes sense. They did not start yesterday, and will happen from time to time, perhaps even somewhere they will lead to some small success, for example, some height will be recaptured from the enemy.
The only good thing about this is that there are shells for artillery.
These actions have no operational significance.
Now that the Ukrainian offensive has virtually completely fizzled out, it is important to understand this - as soon as we try to attack ourselves, all the laws of the positional impasse will turn against us.
And now we look at Avdeevka. How did the Russian command distinguish itself there? In order:
1. The enemy was outmaneuvered with the concentration of troops, the attack was so sudden that on the first day all observers noted very weak artillery fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
2. Thorough reconnaissance - for example, a number of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the preparation of the offensive, strikes were carried out on the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were successful, and this did not lead to the discovery of the plans of the Russian command.
3. To speed up the breakthrough of Russian units through the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reserves of high-precision weapons, the same LMURs, were created, and the interaction of ground units with helicopters was worked out. Also, to accelerate the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense lines, Russian troops are massively using incendiary ammunition, with all the ensuing consequences for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
That is, we are dealing with a pre-prepared attack, carefully planned, for which reserves of material and technical equipment were created, including high-precision weapons, a set of reconnaissance activities were carried out, offensive groups of ground forces were covertly prepared for advance, and a serious detachment of strike aviation forces was allocated.
At the same time, surprise was achieved.
And what? After the first penetrations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the place of the breakthrough, including artillery, and our penetrations during the first hours were stopped. Now the advance of Russian troops has dropped to Bakhmut pace - tens of meters per day at best, the enemy is launching counterattacks.
This is what a positional deadlock looks like.
And this has been written about on the channel more than once.
What has the Russian army not mastered that is necessary at the tactical level for a successful breakthrough in a reasonable time?
The first is the isolation of the combat area. It is clear that some actions were taken in this direction, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to transfer the necessary reserves to the Avdeevka area.
It’s important - if ours transfer more troops to this area, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will do the same. And then again, and again, this “trade in human flesh” has no limits.
The second is counter-battery combat. Everything here at the moment is more complicated than is commonly thought, we will not expand on the topic, we will simply state the fact that the CBB is not effective enough.
And this was enough to slow down the compression of the Russian “pincers” to an acceptably slow rate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Can the operation to encircle Avdeevka end in success?
It depends on what is considered such. Theoretically, having resisted, and having suffered heavy losses, it is possible to cut off this ledge, this, at least, would finally make life easier for people in Donetsk and at least one of the stated tasks of the North Military District would be partially fulfilled.
But it will not be possible to quickly cut off the ledge held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so that they would not be able to leave there and would lose troops in this area, and this is already obvious.
The Russian army will have to change beyond recognition if the country's leadership wants to end this war with a significant victory, and at the cost of losses that, at least with a stretch, could be called reasonable.
Otherwise, we are doomed to months-long meat grinders for every waste heap and every village along the way.
This is trench warfare.
In our current state, we will not be able to overcome it.
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Game of Civilization
#War
#Ukraine
#Operations
Once again about the possibility of a Russian offensive. Namely, to this. What's happening? Local, very limited attacks are taking place with the aim of occupying more advantageous defensive positions where it makes sense. They…
t.me/playcivilization/1112
133.9Kviews
Oct 13 at 23:19
, hienoa työtä raportoinnissa!
helikopterit voi pörrätä etulinjassa 
A-10 sinne ja äkkiä 
