Sota Niilistä

In the eyes of Ethiopia’s government, the future is a 145-meter-tall monument of rolled concrete and Francis turbines that spans the Blue Nile River within a shout of the Sudanese border.

That future shifted from vision to reality on 20 February, when Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed (a Nobel Peace Prize winner who has since come under fire for alleged war crimes in the country’s ongoing civil war) pressed a virtual button that turned on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. GERD is by far Africa’s largest hydropower project.

That moment notwithstanding, GERD isn’t complete just yet. The dam’s reservoir is still filling, and the full force of both its power and its downstream effects is yet to be seen. And when you zoom out, Ethiopian authorities’ lack of transparency about the whole project is only clouding the future.
 
One of the first scientists to realise that something was wrong with the lakes was a geologist named Simon Onywere. He came to the topic by accident. Between 2010 and 2013 he had been studying Lake Baringo, Kenya’s fourth-largest lake by volume. The bones of residents of the area around the lake weaken uncommonly fast, and Onywere was investigating whether this may be linked to high fluoride levels in the water. Then, in early 2013, while he was meeting with residents of Marigat, a town near the lake, one old man stood up. “Prof,” he said. “We don’t care about the fluoride. What we want to know is how the water has entered our schools.”

Curious to know what the man was talking about, Onywere visited the local Salabani primary school. There, he found the lake lapping through the grounds of the school. Nonplussed, he took out his map. He looked at the location of the lake and the location of the school, and wondered how the lake had moved 2km without it becoming news.

Onywere rushed back to Nairobi, where he and his colleagues at several Kenyan universities studied recent satellite images of the lake. The images showed that the lake had, in the past year, flooded the area around it. Then Onywere searched for images of some of the lakes nearby: Lakes Bogoria, Naivasha and Nakuru. All of these had flooded. As he extended his search, he saw that Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest lake, had flooded, too. So had Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world.
 
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