Tässä analyysiä.
Liitän lopputuleman tähän jo. Pelkään, että juuri näin käy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-russias-planning-in-syria-2015-9
Tit-for-tat
Ironically, this strategy is nearly a mirror image of the equally flawed American plan for Syria. American policy similarly holds that convincing Assad’s external supporters to abandon him requires changing the balance of power in the civil war sufficiently to make clear that the regime has no future.
And so America and its partners have gradually increased their assistance to the Syrian opposition. But far from seeing the Assad regime as a "dead man walking," the Russian and Iranian supporters of the regime have simply doubled down in an attempt to create their own facts on the ground.
The Russian and American policies are similar in another important respect: Neither is likely to convince the other side to abandon their policy toward Assad or produce the desired negotiation. To the contrary, the supporters of the Syrian opposition — not just the United States, but also Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey — are more likely to counter-escalate.
In a manner familiar from the endless proxy civil wars of the Cold War era, escalation follows escalation, ultimately serving only to sustain the civil war indefinitely and increase the violence astronomically.
Eventually, all sides will learn that changing the balance of power on the ground will not work, grow exhausted of struggle, and find some genuine compromise on the future of the Assad regime. That could take many years, however, and, in the meantime, we should expect the Syrian civil war to get worse.
