Syyrian konflikti

Sitä minä mietin kun tuon uutisen luin, että nyt kun Mosul alkaa olla paketissa, niin ovat laittaneet läpimurtohyökkäyksen käyntiin ja koettavat vallata daeshineilta mahdollisimman paljon aluetta ja samalla siepata mahdollisimman monta pakenevaa taistelijaa kiinni siinä ohessa. Mutta tietenkään tästä ei ole kyse, koska Manjib on kokonaan eri puolella Syyriaa. Sitä en sitten tiedä, että olisiko operaatio silti yritys katkaista jonkinlaisia huoltoyhteyksiä ja eristää daeshin osastoja toisistaan?

Veikkaisin Yhdysvaltojen siirtävän joukkoja Syyriaan kurdien alueille ainoastaan suojaksi Assadin ja Turkin joukkoja vastaan. Vähän sama kuin Balttiassa.
 
Veikkaisin Yhdysvaltojen siirtävän joukkoja Syyriaan kurdien alueille ainoastaan suojaksi Assadin ja Turkin joukkoja vastaan. Vähän sama kuin Balttiassa.

Arvelen että homman tarkoitus on pyrkiä todellisella (ei pelkästään dronet tai hyshys-erikoisjoukot) läsnäololla vähän rauhoittamaan tilannetta. Liipasinsormi on monella herkässä mutta useimmat osapuolet eivät oikeasti halua jenkkejä kuitenkaan suututtaa.
Mutta onhan se aika hassua että noin vaan avoimesti ajellaan Syyriaan liput hulmuten. Toivottavasti homma pysyy lapasessa sillä eskalaation vaara on aika ilmeinen ja äkkiä "symbolinen osasto" tai "tilapäinen operaatio" muuttuukin oikeaksi maasodaksi kun "tällä ei homma vielä ihan toiminut mutta jos me vielä ihan pikkusen...".
 
Yle kirjoitti amerikkalaisista.

USA lisännyt joukkojaan Syyrian Manbijissa ja valmistautuu hyökkäämään Raqqaan
Yhdysvallat ja Venäjä yrittävät pitää tukemansa asevoimat erillään, etteivät ne alkaisi sotia keskenään.

5.3.2017 klo 18:34päivitetty 5.3.2017 klo 18:42
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Yle Uutisgrafiikka
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Yhdysvallat on viime päivinä lisännyt sotilaidensa määrää Pohjois-Syyriassa sijaitsevassa Manbijin kaupungissa, josta on tullut Syyrian sisällissodan monimutkaisuuden symboli.

Yhdysvaltain tukema Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) -ryhmittymä valtasi Manbijin viime vuonna terroristijärjestö Isisiltä. SDF koostuu kurditaistelijoista ja heidän kanssaan liittoutuneista syyrialaisista kapinallisista.

Yhdysvallat haluaa joukkojensa näyttävällä vahvistamisella estää SDF:n ja Turkin armeijan välisen yhteenoton. Turkin tukemat syyrialaiset kapinalliset ovat syksystä alkaen vallanneet Syyrian maaperää Isisiltä Manbijin länsipuolelta.

Turkki pitää kurditaistelijoita terroristeina ja on vaatinut kurdeja vetäytymään Syyriassa Eufratjoen länsipuolelta. Yhteenotto olisi siis mahdollinen.

USA ja Venäjä välittäjinä
Turkki ja SDF ovat samalla kumpikin Yhdysvaltain liittolaisia. Yhdysvaltain mukaan Manbijissa ei olekaan enää kurditaistelijoita, vaan kaupungin hallintoa johtaa arabeista muodostettu Manbijin sotilasneuvosto.

Syyrian armeija teki alkuviikosta oman tukijansa Venäjän myötävaikutuksella sopimuksen SDF:n kanssa muodostaa puskurivyöhyke Turkin tukemien joukkojen ja SDF:n väliin.

Yhdysvaltain Syyriassa olevien joukkojen komentaja kenraaliluutnantti Stephen Townsend kertooNew York Timesissa, että Syyrian armeijan joukot ovat nyt "kiväärin kantomatkan päässä" Manbijista. SDF:n ja Syyrian armeijan välillä ei ole ollut vihollisuuksia.

Syyrian armeija ei hyväksy sitä, että Turkin tukemat joukot valtaavat sen maaperää, mutta toistaiseksi osapuolet ovat visusti välttäneet keskinäistä yhteenottoa.

Tähtäimessä Raqqa
Kaikkien edellämainittujen asevoimien yhteinen vihollinen on terroristijärjestö Isis. Yhdysvallat ja Venäjä yrittävät pitää keskenään vihamieliset joukot järjestyksessä, etteivät ne alkaisi sotia keskenään, vaan keskittyisivät Isisin lyömiseen.

Vaikka Manbijiin on koottu yhdysvaltalaisia joukkoja, ei niiden kokonaismäärä Syyriassa ole viime kuukausina noussut. Sotilaita on Syyriassa noin 500. Muutos saattaa kuitenkin olla tulossa.

Yhdysvaltain presidentti Donald Trump sai viime maanantaina käteensä puolustusministeriön ehdotuksen, kuinka Isisin pääkaupunkinaan pitämä Raqqa vallattaisiin. Ehdotuksesta kertoo mm.Washington Post.

Raju sotilasvoiman lisäys
Lehden mukaan Raqqan valtaamisen käytännössä ainoa vaihtoehto on SDF:n vahvistaminen, jotta sen voimat riittävät valtaamaan Isisin tärkeimmän kaupungin. SDF on viime kuukausina vähitellen tunkeutunut jo noin kymmenen kilometrin päähän Raqqasta.

Syyriaan pitäisi tuoda Yhdysvaltain raskasta aseistusta, mm. tykistöä, joka tukisi SDF:n noin 50 000 miehen vahvuisia joukkoja etäältä. Lisäksi mukana pitäisi olla rintaman läheisyydessä toimivia Yhdysvaltain erikoisjoukkoja, jotka taas tarvitsisivat omat tukiosastonsa.

Turkki vastustaa jyrkästi aseiden toimittamista kurdeille, mutta Yhdysvaltain lienee mahdotonta tässä suhteessa noudattaa Turkin vaatimusta, lehti arvioi. Itse Raqqan kaupunkiin ei silti hyökkäisi kurditaistelijoita, vaan arabeja.

Vaalikampanjassaan Donald Trump lupasi viedä terrorismin-vastaisen sodan uusille rintamille, mm. Syyriaan. Hän on myös antanut presidentin asetuksen, jolla hän suositteli puolustusministeriölle sotilaallisia konflikteja rajoittavien ehtojen löyhentämistä.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9492902
 
.... monimutkaisuuden symboli.

Yhdysvaltain tukema Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) -ryhmittymä valtasi Manbijin ....


http://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9492902

Saisivat päivittää uutistaan lisää. Vielä monimutkaisemmaksi menee kun lisäillään täysin olemattomia ryhmittymiä. SDF=Syrian Democratic Forces. Tuosta demokraattisuudesta voi tietysti olla mitä mieltä vaan, mutta se on jo toinen juttu.
 
Tässä hyvä, pitkä juttu Turkista, Al-Babista ja sotilaallis -poliittisen tilanteen monimutkaisuudesta muun muassa.

Turkey Won, and Lost, the Race to Al Bab
Ankara’s forces are increasingly isolated in northern Syria
by TOM COOPER

Situated some 35 kilometers northeast of Aleppo city in northern Syria, Al Bab — population 65,000 — was one of the centers of the uprising against the regime of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. Islamic State militants overran the town in November 2013.

Turkey launched Operation Euphrates Shield on Aug. 24, 2016 with the primary aim of reaching Al Bab in order to prevent the Kurdish People’s Protection Units — the YPG — from forming a land bridge connecting various territories the militia controls.

A secondary aim of the Turkish operation is to destroy ISIS forces in Al Bab. In this goal, the Turks succeeded. But in their main aim, they failed.

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The Turkish military deployed elements of its Special Forces Command, special forces of the federal gendarmerie, parts of the 2nd Armored Brigade equipped with Leopard 2A4 tanks and the 5th Armored Brigade equipped with older M60 tanks.

These units are supported by two artillery regiments including the 106th equipped with Firtna self-propelled howitzers. Bayraktar tactical drones and F-16 fighter-bombers from the Turkish air force’s 8th Main Jet Base and E-7T radar planes from the 3rd MJB also support Operation Euphrates Shield.

A dozen Syrian insurgent groups provide the infantry element of the operation. These include units of the Free Syrian Army — such as the 13th Division, Sultan Murad Division, Hamza Division, Mutassim Brigade, Brigade of Mountain Falcons and a half-dozen others — and also independent Islamist groups such as Ahrar Ash Sham, Faylaq Ash Sham and even Harakat Noureddin Az Zenghi.

In all, insurgent groups provide some 3,000 fighters.

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A still from a video showing Turkish commandos from the OKK together with one of ACV-15s that Ankara donated to Syrian insurgents. YouTube capture
So far, the Turkish armed forces and allied Syrian insurgent forces have liberated an area the size of Arkansas. Despite several vicious ISIS counterattacks and some losses, the coalition liberated Al Bab in late February 2017.

Besides ISIS resistance, the operation repeatedly faced other obstacles. The coalition clashed with the YPG and forces loyal to the Syrian regime. Russian air force jets based in Syria bombed Turkish and allied troops.

Officially, the YPG is the military wing of the Democratic Union Party, an organization of Syrian Kurds. But Turkish commanders assert that the YPG is actually an offshoot of the extreme-left Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization not only by Turkey, but all of NATO including the United States.

The PKK has been at war with Ankara for 30 years.

Indeed, large parts of the YPG reportedly are staffed by Kurds who are Turkish citizens and therefore members of the PKK. Although the administration of the former U.S. president Barack Obama acknowledged that the PYD is at least “aligned” with the PKK, it is also a centerpiece of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which the United States declared its most effective partner in Syria in the war against ISIS.

The PYD and YPG’s — and thus PKK and SDF’s — aims in regard to Al Bab are clear. Together with Manbij, around 30 kilometers farther east, the town should serve as a land connection between the Kurdish-controlled enclave around the town of Efrin in northwestern Syria and Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria.

Correspondingly, the YPG launched its own attacks on the area around Al Bab.

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One of at least nine Leopard 2A4 tanks of the Turkish 2nd Armored Brigade knocked out in an ISIS counterattack southwest of Al Bab in the period Dec. 22 to 24, 2016. All the vehicles left behind by their crews were subsequently destroyed by Turkish air strikes. ISIS release
In attempt to lessen tensions between Turkey and the YPG, the Obama administration not only demanded that the Kurds withdraw from Manbij and the area east of Euphrates River, but also threatened to end all support for them if they failed to follow the order.

The YPG announced its withdrawal and Washington confirmed this no less than three times — but, in fact, nothing happened. On the contrary, on Nov. 14, 2017, the YPG announced its own advance on Al Bab, in turn provoking a battle with Turkish and allied forces in Qabasin at the same time these forced faced an ISIS counteroffensive.

The U.S. reaction to this clash was to announce a halt of its support for the Turkish operation against ISIS. However, for all practical purposes, this meant that the U.S. military was using military bases in Turkey to support a terrorist organization at war with Turkey, a NATO member and therefore a U.S. ally.

Around the same time, Turkish coalition forces began feeling the presence of the other major players in Syria — Iran- and Russia-backed Syrian forces.

Fiercely opposing the idea of any parts of Syria being controlled by somebody other than the regime, commanders of loyalist militias including Quwwat Nimr and Liwa Suqour As Sahra announced, in late October 2016, their plans for an offensive on Al Bab.

Sources in Damascus even indicated the regime’s intention to establish a sort of a no-fly zone for Turkish aircraft over northern Syria.

The focal points of loyalist military operations in Aleppo are Kweres air base, 30 kilometers east of Aleppo City, and the town of As Safira, around 25 kilometers southeast of Aleppo. Constructed with Polish support in the late 1960s as the primary base of the Syrian air force academy, Kweres was besieged by ISIS from 2013 until November 2015.

For its part, As Safira is one of the major centers of the Syrian defense industry, and houses a number of factories that manufacture ammunition. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps owns and operates many of the factories.

Immediately after lifting the siege of Kweres, the Syrian regime repaired the base. A squadron of L-39 fighter-bombers, optimized for night missions, deployed to Kweres. The regime sent a Buk M1E surface-to-air missile system, operated by a combined Russian and Syrian crew, to defend the base.

After As Safira came under repeated attacks by insurgent-operated multiple rocket launchers in October 2016 — prompting the IRGC to complain about “U.S. air strikes” on its factories — the Russians bolstered the town’s defenses with one of its own S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. This in turn prompted the Turkish military to temporarily halt operations against ISIS.

In October 2016, YPG units from Efrin enclave deployed north of Aleppo in cooperation with regime forces and the IRGC and launched several attacks on the western flank of the Turkish coalition, forcing the Turks and their allies to redeploy some units from fighting ISIS to this new front line.

IRGC artillery repeatedly shelled Syrian insurgent and Turkish army positions, and on Nov. 24, two air strikes by Syrian L-39s killed at least three Turkish army soldiers.

Eventually, the IRGC and Russians managed to convince the Syrian regime to prioritize the offensive on eastern Aleppo. With this battle lasting well into late December 2016, the Turkish coalition had enough time to surround Al Bab on three sides. However, the coalition’s first major push into the town was stopped by an ISIS counterattack on Dec. 23, 2016.

As the Turks and their allies got bogged down battling ISIS in Al Bab, the regime advanced on the town from the south in January 2017. This is what led to clashes between Syrian and Turkish coalition troops in early February 2017 — and also prompted the Russian air strike that killed another three Turkish soldiers on Feb. 9.

After failing to reach Al Bab on time, regime forces attacked ISIS position farther east and reached YPG positions southwest of Manbij on Feb. 28. Turkey thus won the race to Al Bab.

It was a hollow victory. The political problems related to Operation Euphrates Shield now loom far greater than the military challenges ever did.

A majority of the Turkish units deployed inside Syria were involved in the coup attempt against Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan in April 2016. Wary of emboldening potentially disloyal troops and also fearing retaliation by Syria and Russia, Ankara has been reluctant to fully reinforce Operation Euphrates Shield forces with all the air and artillery support they require.

Moreover, owing to disagreements between the Turks and Americans over the status of the YPG and PYD, the Pentagon likewise has held back some support for the Turkish coalition.

Another issue is the tense relationship between Turkey and its allies from the Syrian insurgency. Ankara — which has openly supported the Syrian uprising over the years — has recruited and paid thousands of Free Syrian Army and Islamist combatants to participate in Operation Euphrates Shield.

At the same time, under U.S. pressure the Turkish government strictly curbed the flow of supplies to moderate insurgents in Idlib governorate, while still permitting Qatar to supply Islamist militants in the same area. Although stubbornly ignored by nearly all Western governments, this imbalance could have grave consequences in the near future.

Ever since the start of the Operation Euphrates Shield, various insurgent commanders and sympathizers have insisted that the ultimate aim of the enterprise should be to lift the siege of eastern Aleppo or to drive all the way to ISIS’s de facto capitol in Ar Raqqa.

Obviously, nothing of these things happened. The cold fact is that Turkey runs the operation for Turkish reasons. While insurgents and Turkey share several common interests, this is by coincidence rather than by design. Ankara isn’t trying to win the Syrian civil war for Syria’s rebels — nor necessarily end the conflict on terms that the United States, Russia, Iran or the Syrian regime would applaud.

While successful in liberating Al Bab from ISIS, the Turkish coalition operation failed in its other, arguably more important goal — to prevent the Kurds from linking their territories in northeastern Syria to regime holdings around Aleppo. Considering the open cooperation between the PYD and YPG and Damascus, this development directly threatens Turkish interests.

A video from late October 2016 showing BM-21s operated by Jaysh Al Mujahidden, part of the Free Syrian Army, targeting defense factories in As Safira

https://warisboring.com/turkey-won-and-lost-the-race-to-al-bab-f6d3172c095a#.px8o6uyyt
 
Next step. Yhdysvaltain merijalkaväki on perustanut tykistötukikohdan Syyriaan tukemaan taisteluita.
 
Länsikoalition ilmaisku pieleen Raqqan lähellä. YK totesi Syyrian ilmavoimat syylliseksi avustuskuljetusrekkojen tuhoamiseen Aleppossa syyskuussa.

US-led coalition suspected of carrying out airstrikes that killed 14 in Syria
According to a human rights organization, 14 civilians were killed in northern Syria in a series of airstrikes. The organization added that the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS most likely carried out the attacks.
Mar 9, 2017, 2:00PM Becca Noy

reuhalebaleppo0903.jpg

Syria (archive) Photo Credit: Reuters/Channel 2 News


14 civilians, including 6 children, were killed in airstrikes in northern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The organization added that the aircraft that carried out the airstrikes were most likely warplanes belonging to the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. The airstrikes targeted the ISIS-held northern city of Raqqa.

Last week, a UN report determined that the Syrian government was responsible for the deadly airstrike that hit a humanitarian aid convoy last September in Aleppo. 14 aid workers were killed in the attack. The UN determined that Russia was not involved in the attack, saying that the Syrian Air Force “meticulously planned and ruthlessly carried out” the attack.

http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news...illed-in-suspected-coalition-airstrikes-27129
 
Mouawiay ei olisi koskaan voinut kuvitella, mihin tuo teinipoikien arabikevään innostamana spreijaama lause "Sinun vuorosi seuraavaksi" johtaisi. Lause oli tarkoitettu Syyrian presidentille Bashar al-Assadille.

daraa-siria-jovenes-revolucion-comienzo-atef-najib-assad-1603-1458147519.jpg


http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/201703102200083686_ul.shtml

Nyt Mouawiay on parikymppinen mies, joka taistelee Vapaan Syyrian armeijan joukoissa. Hän myöntää, että jos olisi tiennyt tekonsa seuraukset, hän ei olisi koskaan spreijannut Assadin vastaista lausetta.

Pojat saivat heti tuta spreijauksen kustannukset. Poliisi pidätti heidät kuudeksi viikoksi. Heitä lyötiin ja kidutettiin sähköiskuin. Kun poikien vanhemmat ja sukulaiset tulivat poliisiasemalle rukoilemaan lastensa vapauttamista, heille sanottiin: "Unohtakaa nämä lapset. Menkää kotiin vaimojenne luo ja tehkää lisää lapsia. Jos ette onnistu, niin lähettäkää vaimonne tänne, niin teemme sen puolestanne."

Maaliskuun puolivälissä mielenosoittajat lähtivät Daraan kaduille vaatien poikien vapauttamista, ja poliisi avasi tulen tappaen joukon mielenosoittajia. Heinäkuuhun mennessä mielenosoitukset olivat levinneet jo pääkaupunkiin Damaskokseen. Aleppossa Assadin vastustajat alkoivat aseistautua. Vuoden sisällä sota oli laajentunut koko Syyriaan.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Mouawiay ei olisi koskaan voinut kuvitella, mihin tuo teinipoikien arabikevään innostamana spreijaama lause "Sinun vuorosi seuraavaksi" johtaisi. Lause oli tarkoitettu Syyrian presidentille Bashar al-Assadille.

daraa-siria-jovenes-revolucion-comienzo-atef-najib-assad-1603-1458147519.jpg


http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/201703102200083686_ul.shtml

Nyt Mouawiay on parikymppinen mies, joka taistelee Vapaan Syyrian armeijan joukoissa. Hän myöntää, että jos olisi tiennyt tekonsa seuraukset, hän ei olisi koskaan spreijannut Assadin vastaista lausetta.

Pojat saivat heti tuta spreijauksen kustannukset. Poliisi pidätti heidät kuudeksi viikoksi. Heitä lyötiin ja kidutettiin sähköiskuin. Kun poikien vanhemmat ja sukulaiset tulivat poliisiasemalle rukoilemaan lastensa vapauttamista, heille sanottiin: "Unohtakaa nämä lapset. Menkää kotiin vaimojenne luo ja tehkää lisää lapsia. Jos ette onnistu, niin lähettäkää vaimonne tänne, niin teemme sen puolestanne."

Maaliskuun puolivälissä mielenosoittajat lähtivät Daraan kaduille vaatien poikien vapauttamista, ja poliisi avasi tulen tappaen joukon mielenosoittajia. Heinäkuuhun mennessä mielenosoitukset olivat levinneet jo pääkaupunkiin Damaskokseen. Aleppossa Assadin vastustajat alkoivat aseistautua. Vuoden sisällä sota oli laajentunut koko Syyriaan.

Tulee väkisin mieleen klassikko "Romani ite domum!"
 
Vähän on eri ääni kellossa liittolaisilla.

Syyria (ja Iran) haluavat Turkkilaiset ja niiden liittolaiset pois ja Venäjä haluaa syventää liittolaisuutta.
Geopolitiikkaa...

Putin hails closer Moscow-Ankara ties on Syria crisis

In-Depth Coverage

Iran Press TV

Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:59PM

Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised close interactions between Moscow and Ankara as part of efforts to find a promising solution to the nearly six-year-long foreign-sponsored militancy in Syria.

"We are actively working to solve the most acute crises, first of all in Syria. I'm very pleased to note, and few seemed to expect it, that our military and special services have established such efficient and close contact," Putin said as he welcomed Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the start of talks focusing on Syria in the Kremlin on Friday.

The Russian president also praised the coordination between his country, Iran, and Turkey to maintain a ceasefire in Syria.
Erdogan, for his part, noted that cooperation in the construction of Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline, which will run from Russia's southern region of Krasnodar across the Black Sea to Turkish Thrace, and building of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey's southern province of Mersin, has regained pace and is increasingly developing.

Defense industry and energy are among the main areas of trade cooperation between Ankara and Moscow, the Turkish leader said.

The comments come as Turkey and Russia have been supporting opposing sides in the conflict in Syria. While Russia has stressed the need to support the legitimate Syrian government, Turkey has been offering support to the anti-Damascus militants.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/l...presstv01.htm?_m=3n.002a.1961.qa0ao069zz.1sxf



Syria calls on UN to force Turkey to withdraw troops

In-Depth Coverage

Iran Press TV

Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:46PM

Syria has called on the United Nations and the Security Council to oblige Turkey to immediately withdraw its "invading forces" from the Syrian territory, stop cross-border attacks and maintain regional and international security and stability.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/l...presstv01.htm?_m=3n.002a.1961.qa0ao069zz.1sxk
 
Iran yrittää päästä Israelin rajalle Golanilla. Voi olla, että myöhemmin paukkuu, sillä Israel ei katso moista hyvällä.

IRGC-controlled Iraqi militia forms ‘Golan Liberation Brigade’
By Amir Toumaj | March 12, 2017 | [email protected] | @AmirToumaj
Nujaba-golan-300x200.jpg

Photo 1: Harakat al Nujaba Golan Liberation Brigade, as portrayed in propaganda video.

The Iranian-controlled Iraqi militia Harakat al Nujaba this week announced the formation of its “Golan Liberation Brigade.” While it is not uncommon for entities to name themselves after areas they aim to “liberate,” the militia’s spokesman has said that the unit could assist the Syrian regime in taking the Golan Heights, a region in the Levant that has been controlled by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.

If true, the unit would likely participate in a future offensive to capture territory from Syrian opposition in the part of the Golan Heights still controlled by Syria, before moving on to the much taller order of dislodging the Israelis across the border. This week’s announcement reflects Tehran’s priorities in southern Syria since finally taking the fiercely contested city of Aleppo late last year: crush Syrian opposition, and pose military threat to Israel from the Golan Heights. While the Islamic Republic is incapable of credibly challenging the Jewish state’s fortress in the Golan, reaffirming ideological commitment to fighting Israel signals defiance to a global audience amid a reportedly converging American-Arab-Israeli military alliance against Tehran.

Harakat al Nujaba, or Movement of the Noble, has sustained operations in the Syrian and Iraqi combat zones. An offshoot of the Iranian-backed militias Asaib Ahl al Haq and the Hezbollah Brigades, Harakat al Nujaba was formed in 2013 to fight in the Syrian Civil War as part of Iranian-led Iraqi expeditionary forces. The militia joined the Popular Mobilization Forces, the umbrella organization of Iraqi militia, the following year, after the Islamic State incursion into Iraq. Operating as one of the largest Iraqi-Shiite militia contingents in Syria, the militia has claimed to field 10,000 forces. Harakat al Nujaba played an important role in assisting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and pro-Syrian regime forces conquer Aleppo late last year.

The Iraqi militia functions as an extension of the Islamic Republic. Having sworn full allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the militia promotes velayat-e faqih (guardianship of jurisprudence), the Islamic Republic’s founding ideology. Harakat al Nujaba takes direct orders from Major General Qassem Soleimani, the chief of the IRGC extraterritorial branch the Qods Force. Last year, the Iraqi militia, which is also known as Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, proclaimed that it and Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful foreign militia, were “the twins of resistance.”

The militia leader Akram al Kabi is close to the top Iranian leadership, including the supreme leader. A co-founder of the Asaib Ahl al Haq – itself an offshoot of the Mahdi Army – Kabi was designated in September 2008 by the US Treasury as a terrorist for aiding Iraqi insurgents. In 2015, he openly said he would depose the Iraqi government if Khamenei issued the order. Last year, top Iranian officials close to Khamenei gave Kabi a highly publicized reception in Tehran, unprecedented in scope and scale for a militia leader. This past December, Harakat al Nujaba publicized Kabi’s meeting with Khamenei on the sidelines of a conference in Tehran.

Harakat al Nujaba has divulged some details about the Golan Liberation Brigade. The commander of the militia’s forces in Syria released a statement declaring the unit to be a synthesis of combat experiences gained in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. The militia’s official spokesman confirmed the event as a press conference March 8 in Tehran at the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, saying the unit was formed following “recent victories” (an implicit reference to Aleppo). He claimed the Golan unit is comprised of “special” forces.

“Should the Syrian government make the request, we are ready to participate in the liberation of occupied Golan with our allies,” the spokesman said. “We will not permit the soil of Arab countries to remain in the grasps of occupiers.”

Harakat al Nujaba also released a video promoting the Golan unit that showed fighters marching in columns and carrying a banner reading, “Israel will be destroyed.”

Tehran’s goal of establishing a foothold in the Golan Heights is not a secret. Last year, the head of the Israeli foreign and defense legislative committee revealed without divulging details that Israel had repelled several Iran-directed attempts to move forces into Syrian Golan Heights.

Senior Iranian military commanders are known to operate in Syrian Golan. Last July, the then-commander of the IRGC Basij paramilitary publicized an inspection of Quneitra by the Israel border. In January 2015, an Israeli strike in the area killed several high-value targets including IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi and multiple Hezbollah operatives.

A chasm remains between the capabilities and ambitions of Harakat al Nujaba and the IRGC to retake the Golan from Israel. The combined forces of the Syrian regime and IRGC-led militias are no match for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and this disparity is expected to hold for the foreseeable future. Israel could also adopt a more proactive approach in Syria to foil IRGC encroachment by the Golan, for example coordinating with Syrian rebels positioned in the area. Syrian Golan’s flat geography furthermore denies the IRGC suitable terrain to replicate the southern Lebanon model of concealing rocket launch sites dispersed across a widespread area, making it easier for the IDF to search and destroy weapons systems. For years, the IDF has been fortifying positions in the rocky plateau of Golan to face greater capabilities than the IRGC and its allies can muster.

Yet the claim to retake Israeli Golan underscores Harakat al Nujaba’s ideological commitment to the IRGC’s and Khamenei’s declared goal of destroying Israel. Khamenei and his top Guard generals have frequently spoken that that the divine hand would aid the faithful who take steps towards “divine-inspired” ideological principles.

Brandishing the formation of the Golan unit also challenges Arab countries on the Palestinian issue, as the Tehran has accused them of abandoning the cause in service of Israel. The Islamic Republic has slammed reported Arab-Israeli rapprochement and talks to form a US-brokered military coalition with the goal of countering Tehran, as covered in The Wall Street Journal. Last month, top Iranian government officials hosted another round of the Support of Palestinian Intifada Conference in a show of unity and defiance. This past week, Tehran’s interim Friday prayer leader this week excoriated “some leaders in Islamic countries who are with Zionists,” calling them “not human.” Suffering from loss of legitimacy over support of Syrian President Bashar al Assad against a Sunni-Arab uprising and nervous over a converging Israeli-Arab alliance, the Islamic Republic is projecting to the globe and “sell-out”Arab leaders a defiant commitment to fighting Israel.

The Iraqi militia’s Golan unit and IRGC-led expeditionary forces could help pro-Syrian regime forces take opposition-held areas in the south. In February 2015, IRGC-led forces launched a failed campaign in the Daraa and Quneitra in the south. Since conquering Aleppo last year, the IRGC-led expeditionary forces and other pro-Syrian regime forces have been able to redirect their dwindling assets to several fronts in north, central, and south Syria. Pro-regime forces backed by Russian air power have been pounding Daraa in the south for more than a month to slow an opposition offensive, and have recently launched a new bid to capture it. An IRGC colonel was also killed last month in the area. A pro-Syrian regime propaganda outlet late last month reaffirmed the government’s intention to retake all of Daraa and open a major border crossing with Jordan. Meanwhile, pro-regime forces have made progress in the northern pocket of Quneitra Governorate, located in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan.

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Map 1: southern Syria front, March 2017. Red: pro-Syrian regime forces. Green: rebel forces including Free Syrian Army and al Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat Fath al Sham. Black: Islamic State affiliates. Credit: Liveuamap.

The IRGC’s goals in southern Syria are to crush Syrian opposition forces, and build the capability to open another front against Israel. The IRGC hopes a viable Golan foothold would serve as deterrence against Israel and US, and that it could activate in a future conflict, such as another Israel-Hezbollah war. For now, the IDF’s fortified posture in the Golan remains a difficult, if not futile, target for the Guard and its allies. The IRGC nevertheless intends to project steadfast commitment to ideological principles and defiance of adversaries.

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Photo 2.

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Photo 3: Harakat al Nujaba Golan Liberation Brigade flag at front, and “Israel will burn” banner in the back.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...qi-militia-forms-golan-liberation-brigade.php
 
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