Ilmavoimien tulevaisuus

Oho, Sveitsissä kuuman päivän alustava tieto, että voisivat sittenkin ostaa 36 eikä 40. Väittävät, että jopa asiasta vastuullinen ministeri ajaisi tätä pienempää. Kaikenlaiset säästöajatukset käydään läpi jutussa, esim. Amraamin sopiminen Typhooniin ja F-35:een. Voi olla tosin, että saksankielinen lehti vemputtaa muuten alakynteen jäänyttä Typhoonia tällä tavoin lukijoilleen.

New fighter jets - Federal Council could push the purchase price below six billion

Today the Federal Council is discussing the procurement of new combat aircraft. The indications are growing that the Federal Council does not want to exhaust its budget.

Is it the ultra-modern, but also controversial US stealth jet F-35? Or does the state government decide in favor of a European model after all? The race is completely open, reported several sources close to the Federal Council before the possibly decisive meeting of the state government.

According to information from last week's Rundschau, the F-35 jet does particularly well in terms of costs - surprising for some observers. According to the manufacturer Lockheed Martin, the jet can do a lot more than its competitors. Therefore, the question arises as to whether the maximum number of 40 aircraft targeted by the DDPS is needed at all. Or whether fewer aircraft could protect Swiss airspace.

For security politician Beat Flach (GLP / AG), the F-35 could be a good choice for Switzerland. "If the F-35 is cheaper and you need fewer aircraft, then that would be a win-win-win situation," says the National Council. Especially in times of the Corona, every saved franc is to be welcomed in the procurement of combat aircraft.

Only 36 planes?

Whether it is possible to use fewer aircraft is also the question with the other types on offer. The Federal Armaments Office, Armasuisse, has asked all four fighter jet manufacturers to submit an offer for 40 and 36 aircraft, plus logistics and armament.

The manufacturers made only vague information about the price in public. From the federal administration it can be heard that all manufacturers offered 40 aircraft at a price of 6 billion Swiss francs. The price for 36 aircraft is likely to be several hundred million francs below the maximum budget.

Amherd would like to spend less

After the close result of the referendum, Defense Minister Viola Amherd let it be known that she would be very happy if the Federal Council did not have to exhaust the approved budget. "If we can buy a sufficient number of aircraft that are cheaper and suitable, we will also take a good look at them," said Amherd on the Sunday of the vote last September.

According to Airbus Defense, the manufacturer of the Eurofighter, there are certainly potential for savings. "The advantage of our package is that we can make savings without untying the package," says Switzerland Director Franz Posch.

The air-to-air missiles of today's F / A-18 could still be used in the Eurofighter, so you wouldn't have to buy new armament for several million Swiss francs. These missiles could, however, continue to be used in the F-35, as well as in the second US jet offered, the F / A-18 Super Hornet.

Advantages of cheaper procurement

If the six billion are not exhausted, more money would be available for other army projects. Or there are credit balances at the DDPS, which could also be used, for example, to reduce federal corona debts.

With a lower budget, the Federal Council would also take the wind out of the sails of the fighter jet opponents even more. A popular initiative against US jets would have been even more difficult if the jets were available for less than six billion Swiss francs.
 
Oho, Sveitsissä kuuman päivän alustava tieto, että voisivat sittenkin ostaa 36 eikä 40. Väittävät, että jopa asiasta vastuullinen ministeri ajaisi tätä pienempää. Kaikenlaiset säästöajatukset käydään läpi jutussa, esim. Amraamin sopiminen Typhooniin ja F-35:een. Voi olla tosin, että saksankielinen lehti vemputtaa muuten alakynteen jäänyttä Typhoonia tällä tavoin lukijoilleen.


Katsotaan tuleeko Suomen päätös ennen Sveitsiä :)
 
Ehkä olen vain liian kyyninen mutta nämä "mahtuvat helposti budjettiin, joten leikkaamme konemäärää kun uudet luudat on niin tehokkaita" -jutut haiskahtaa taas sellaiselta 'välttämättömyydestä -> hyve' -politiikalta.
 
Nytkö ne jo pelkää, että eivät päätä ollenkaan?

Fighter jets: Will the Federal Council decide in favor of the American F-35, or does the new aircraft turn an additional loop?

Today the Federal Council is to decide which fighter aircraft should form the backbone of the Swiss Air Force in the future. However, after heated discussions in advance, the explosive business could experience a delay.
Seldom has an indiscretion in the run-up to a Federal Council meeting caused such great excitement. On June 21, the NZZ and SRF's “Rundschau” published almost simultaneously that Defense Minister Viola Amherd had asked the Federal Council to procure the F-35 fighter jet. According to information that has been confirmed several times, the fifth generation platform from the American manufacturer Lockheed Martin performed best in the tests carried out by the procurement authority Armasuisse.

The revelation caused hectic activity in the federal administration, among security politicians and above all among the other competing providers. Behind the scenes, the wires ran hot between the departments. A series of media reports resulted from this excitement. They let the F-35 appear in a worse light or brought the supposed political, financial or technical advantages of its three competitors to the fore.
The Federal Council is facing a delicate decision, the consequences of which even experts cannot conclusively assess at this point in time. Observers consider two scenarios to be probable: the Federal Council decides in favor of the F-35 on the basis of the clearly failed evaluation or lets business turn an additional loop during the summer holidays. Regardless of how the state government decides today, a summer with lots of turbulence is guaranteed. In view of the painful history of this billion-dollar business, however, this is not surprising.
Amherd says she does not want to be guided by political tactical considerations. But votes on a certain type of aircraft are easier to win. Air force opponents could suddenly find support from groups that reject a particular jet. When voting on the Gripen, for example, some pilots made it clear that they would prefer the Rafale. This time, however, representatives of the Air Force remained conspicuously silent.
The decision
A lot is at stake for Viola Amherd. Fighter jet procurement is by far her biggest project, and one for which she would be fondly remembered.

If the Federal Council rejects the F-35, it may violate the law
The starting position before the Federal Council meeting on Wednesday's type decision is delicate. On the one hand, the SP and the Europeans are apparently holding out their hands - on the other hand, the American F-35 won the evaluation with good reason.
Expert opinion of the Federal Office of Justice
Since then, the Federal Council has been exposed to domestic and foreign policy calls as if there had never been a selection process. Instead of the best ratio of effectiveness and costs, the focus suddenly seems to be on the origin of the jets. In addition to the F-35, Armasuisse evaluated another US model, the Super Hornet from Boeing, as well as the Rafale from the French manufacturer Dassault and the European joint product Eurofighter.

But how much leeway does the Federal Council actually have? How realistic is a decision based on the sound of political shawms?

The DDPS commissioned the Federal Office of Justice (FOJ) for an expert opinion at the last minute, which came to a clear conclusion: the Federal Council is legally obliged to accept the most economically advantageous offer. The FOJ concludes from the law on public procurement that was passed before 2019 and in particular the associated ordinance.

According to the seven-page report dated June 28, foreign policy aspects should only be taken into account "if two offers are equivalent in the light of the admission criteria". The Federal Council clearly defined and weighted these in its dispatch on the planning resolution for the renewal of air defense in 2019.
Criteria for the evaluation of new combat aircraft
Effectiveness (55 percent): Above all, the jet must convince with its capabilities and be able to be used autonomously for at least six months.
Product support (25 percent): This is about maintenance and logistics. Six months of autonomy are also required for this criterion.
Cooperation (10 percent): The deal is concluded with the country of manufacture (“government to government”). The Federal Council therefore wants to know in the offer what options there are for military cooperation - for example in training.
Direct industrial participation (10 percent): The compensation transactions, like the cooperations, are more of a secondary criterion.
The accompanying music from the manufacturer countries or economic incentives are therefore weighted far less than the first two criteria, i.e. the specific capabilities of the product or the logistical requirements. The comprehensive offer for political cooperation by the German federal government, which represents the European joint project “Eurofighter”, cannot be taken into account in the narrower framework of the evaluation.

Even more adventurous ideas that France is said to have recently deposited with certain federal councilors should, according to the interpretation of the BJ report, have no influence on the decision of the state government. The distance between the F-35 and the next best fighter is simply too great, say several sources independently of one another.
Good faith
The Federal Council decided on the criteria for the evaluation itself, taking into account the recommendations of an advisory group from various stakeholders from politics, the armed forces and industry. In the phase prior to the evaluation, an actually political preliminary decision was made to only consider systems of western states.

This would probably have been the moment to raise fundamental concerns about American jets. Bringing this in, underpinned by European policy considerations, is, firstly, too late and, secondly, not expedient. Promises made by individual states are likely to have little weight in the framework of EU structures.


The report from the FOJ indicates that the equal treatment of providers is crucial for an award procedure. The lawyers at the FOJ write that the providers should be able to rightly assume that the Federal Council will actually apply the award criteria and not change them.

Finally, the report argues with a principle of the rule of law: "If this trust is disappointed, there is a violation of the principle of good faith." The FOJ paper seems to restrict the Federal Council's room for maneuver considerably. Apart from a significant change in one of the manufacturing countries, there is hardly any reason imaginable that would legitimize a deviation from the defined process.
Transparent justification for the type decision
A purely political decision, as the then VBS boss Ueli Maurer made during the failed Gripen project, should not be an option this time. However, this also restricts the domestic political leeway: The SP lures with an offer that at first glance could mean an almost historic unblocking of Swiss security policy.

The Social Democrats promise not to launch any initiative against a European fighter plane. This was agreed with the Greens and the Group for a Switzerland without an Army (GSoA). This would politically complete the procurement by Parliament. The way for security policy discussions without focusing on the fighter jets would be possible. A referendum against the choice of a US type is already in preparation - with the addition that an initiative would also be possible in the case of “blatant inconsistencies”.

In the interpretation of the BJ report, a decision in favor of an aircraft other than the F-35 and thus against the result of the Armasuisse evaluation would have to be understood as a “blatant inconsistency”. So one way or another, an initiative cannot be ruled out. This makes communication of the backgrounds as transparent as possible for the type decision all the more central.

The Federal Council has little political freedom of action. It could probably only ask Armasuisse to review the calculation independently, but strictly on the basis of the evaluation criteria.

For this reason, among other things, the head of the VBS, Viola Amherd, had the procurement aspects of the procedure checked in the spring. She also wanted more and, above all, more detailed information from Armasuisse - for example with the assumption of life cycle costs. All providers had to charge 180 flight hours per year. Amherd wanted to see these numbers so that apples could be compared with apples. Only then were other factors taken into account.
F-35 - or zero decision on Wednesday?
With the F-35, the ratio of flight hours to simulator can obviously be improved compared to the competition. Simple operation and different forms of use than with conventional combat aircraft allow this. Because the platform is also fully networked, the training options have also evolved.

The Federal Council is facing a delicate situation at its meeting on Wednesday. According to the expert opinion, the public procurement law restricts it legally. It can therefore be assumed that the state government will either choose the alleged test winner F-35 or, if the opponents of American jets in the Federal Council are in the majority, make a zero decision and only continue to deal with the issue after the summer break.

This would be devastating, because then, of all things, the rumors and indiscretions are likely to chase down during the holiday season with little news. Except for the presumed test winner, all actors, states, providers and political parties have the incentive to position themselves. The attempt to do everything better with this aircraft procurement would have failed.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Vittu mitä pellejä nuo käkikellovuoristolaiset. Heidän valtion uskottavuus menee vessan pöntöstä alas, kun ensiksi jätetään asia aivan viimeiseen mahdolliseen päivään ja sitten paskahousupelkurit Federal Councilissa eivät uskalla laittaa vähän omaa niskaa peliin ja tehdä päätös, ja hankkia ylivoimaisin kandidaatti. Vaan nyt toivotaan että saadaan pyöriteltyä peukaloita ja viivästytettyä asiasta päättämistä kuukausitolkulla taas kesälomien taakse, ja koitetaan tunkea molemmat kädet perseeseen.
 
Vittu mitä pellejä nuo käkikellovuoristolaiset. Heidän valtion uskottavuus menee vessan pöntöstä alas, kun ensiksi jätetään asia aivan viimeiseen mahdolliseen päivään ja sitten paskahousupelkurit Federal Councilissa eivät uskalla laittaa vähän omaa niskaa peliin ja tehdä päätös, ja hankkia ylivoimaisin kandidaatti. Vaan nyt toivotaan että saadaan pyöriteltyä peukaloita ja viivästytettyä asiasta päättämistä kuukausitolkulla taas kesälomien taakse, ja koitetaan tunkea molemmat kädet perseeseen.
Värikkäästi ilmaistu, mutta todenmukainen jos jänistävät päätöksestä. Miten sellaisella muskelilla päästään läpi mistään jatkoäänestyksestä jos luottoa omaan ei olisi? Rima vapisee jo. Se on tosin koko Sveitsin ilmavoimien olemassaolon...

Jos siis F-35 voitti vertailut, niin tilanne vaikuttaisi olevan F-35 tai go home, yllättävän kirjaimellisesti myös jälkimmäisen osalta.
 
Värikkäästi ilmaistu, mutta todenmukainen jos jänistävät päätöksestä. Miten sellaisella muskelilla päästään läpi mistään jatkoäänestyksestä jos luottoa omaan ei olisi? Rima vapisee jo. Se on tosin koko Sveitsin ilmavoimien olemassaolon...

Jos siis F-35 voitti vertailut, niin tilanne vaikuttaisi olevan F-35 tai go home, yllättävän kirjaimellisesti myös jälkimmäisen osalta.
Mikäli eivät saa F-35:n valintaa sinetöityä tänään, niin Sveitsin liittovaltion neuvosto on kyllä sitten täynnä oman poliittisen onnen karjeristionkijoita, joille oma poliittinen ura menee isänmaan edelle. Ja tässä tulee mieleen se, että olisi yksi hyvä syy laitella niitä kausilimiittejä muuallekin kuin presidenteille, ettei politiikasta tehdä sitten uraa, ja se oma ura menee sitten itse maan asioiden hoitamisen edelle.

Ja mitä ne idiootit siellä Liittovaltion Neuvostossa kuvittelivat? Jos F-35 voitti evaluaatiot ja oli myös taloudellisin valinta, että jostakin ihmeellisestä eurosolidaarisuudesta tuotaisiin kuitenkin heille Typhooneja ja Rafaleja päätettäväksi ja samalla näytettäisiin kinnasta koko kilpailulle ja avattaisiin Sveitsin valtio oikeusteitse korvausvelvolliseksi kilpailun sääntöjen rikkomisesta. Ja samalla vedettäisiin kaikilta tulevilta kilpailuilta uskottavuus alta.
 
Sveitsin poliitikot odottelevat, että maassa alkaa kesälomakausi ja sen keskellä joku muu iso uutinen maailmalta tai kotimaasta. Sen katveessa sitten ilmoitetaan kähminnän tulos.
 
Ruotsi ja Saab saakoon keskittyä Pikku-Grippeänsä tuunailemaan, kun kaikista ilmansuunnista muut Pohjoismaat turvaavat Ruotsia 143 F-35:lla.
(Hermostuneita ihmisiä selvästi liikkeellä, kun pitää sohia joka (tarpeettomaan) suuntaan, vähän niinkuin paniikissa ;) )

Miten se oli; sotakoneella on neljä ulottuvuutta; pituus, leveys, korkeus ja poliittinen ulottuvuus. Viimeinen on aina se tärkein, ja siksi kaikkea epämääräistä on liikkunut julkisuudessa. Sen verran paljon, että F-35-fanejakin selvästi hermostuttaa enemmän kuin koskaan. Ei sieltäkin leiristä muuten olisi jostain vuodettu asioita (joista ehkä kuullaan tarkempaa vuotoa myöhemmin) ja tapetoitu lehtiä mielipiteillä, ettei esimerkiksi datasuvereniteetilla enää olekaan väliä.

Selvästi ei ole sikäläisen PV:n mielestä, jos F-35 valitaan, mutta se ei sitten olekaan siinä tapauksessa ollut sikäläisen arvioinnin kriteerinä, ja se on jätetty poliitikoille. Siitä sitten seuraa debaattia, kuten huomaamme, oletettavasti myös poliittisen johdon sisällä. Mutta eiköhän se tulos sieltä tule kun on valmis.
 
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