Isku Iraniin

ctg kirjoitti:
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http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/11/03/article-2056873-0EA536C900000578-291_634x354.jpg

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2057210/Iran-ready-war-Tehran-retaliate-Israel-West-attack-nuclear-plants.html

Cobra on kutsuttu koolle. Luulen, että Whitehall on suljettu yleisöltä.

General Hassan Firouzabadi said: ‘We take every threat, however distant and improbable, as very real, and are fully prepared to use suitable equipment to punish any kind of mistake.

‘The United States is fully aware that a military attack by the Zionist regime on Iran will not only cause tremendous damage to that regime, but it will also inflict serious damage to the U.S.’

Iran insists it has a nuclear programme only to produce energy.

But a report by the International Atomic Energy Association, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, to be published next week, will conclude that Iran is attempting to produce nuclear weapons in defiance of UN sanctions.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2057210/Iran-ready-war-Tehran-retaliate-Israel-West-attack-nuclear-plants.html#ixzz1d3qqK7Tk

Tuskin Iran antaa periksi. Sota sytyy, josta taitaa tulla yksipuolinen näytös vielä kun nyt Israelkin on mukana. Saavat syyttää itseään
 
George Bush insists that Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. So why, six years ago, did the CIA give the Iranians blueprints to build a bomb? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/jan/05/energy.g2?INTCMP=SRCH
 
Today the President of Israel, Shimon Peres, said that a military strike against Iran is growing increasingly likely by the day.

This comes just days before the report on Iran’s nuclear program is going to be released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a United Nations body.

Peres has been quite clear that the push for an attack on Iran is gaining steam saying that an attack on Iran was becoming “more and more likely” in an interview on Israel’s Channel Two on Saturday.

Peres made this even clearer in a statement to Israel’s Hayom, in which he said, “The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option”. http://theintelhub.com/2011/11/07/israeli-president-says-attack-on-iran-is-increasingly-likely/
 
Radar kirjoitti:
Tuon uuden mallin väitetään olevan nimenomaan toimiva suljettua tutkaa vastaan AGM-88E Advanced Anti- Radiation Guided Missile

Millä tarkkuudella tutkan paikka on mahdollista kauempaa määrittää? Loogisesti ajatellen voisi kuvitella paikanmäärityksen jäävän melko roheaksi. Olemattoman pieni virhe vie ohjuksen satojen metrien päähän maalista.
 
kunnas kirjoitti:
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kunnas kirjoitti:
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miheikki kirjoitti:
Yhteenvetoa Iranin aseistuksesta ja strategiasta.

http://www.verkkomedia.org/news.asp?mode=3&id=1748

Ei kovin vakuutava sotavoima. Toki varmasti pystyy haitata öljynkuljetuksia ainakin hetken aikaa
Tuosta voi olla montaa mieltä. Hormuzin salmi on vain 50 km:ä leveä joten siitä ampuu yli vaikka raketinheittimellä.
Rannikolta laukaistavia merimaaliohjuksia on melkein mahdoton tuhota. Maalinosoitus tapahtuu vaikka minisukellusveneestä. Pintalaivasto on helppo tuhota mutta niihin Iranin laivaston teho ei perustu.
Todennäköisesti jenkit miehittää rannan...

Rantaa on 150 mailia Hormuzin salmen kohdalla. Siihen tarvitaan paljon sotilaita. Jenkeillä ei ole enään niin suuria maihinnousu joukkoja ja nekin on Irakissa ja Afganistanissa. Iran luultavasti ottaa huomioon maihinnousu aikeet ja lisää sotilaitaan alueella. Esim Persianlahden sotaan osallistui 540 000 USA:n sotilasta. Esim. M1 tankkeja ja tykkejä ei voida käyttää montaakaan koska jenkeiltä ei löydy tarpeeksi maihinnousu kalustoa. Isommat maihinnousu alukset (ja miksei pienemmätkin) voivat joutua merimaaliohjusten tai miinojen uhriksi.

Persianlahti on kapea ja Iranilla on pitkä rantaviiva. Tankkeriliikenteen pysäyttäminen onnistuu varmasti. Hormuzin hallinta ei ole ratkaiseva asia.
 
SOME US arms control groups have cautioned against overreaction to a key UN report on Iran's nuclear research, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to change its behaviour. Documents provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency give new details of the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, officials and experts said. The agency is due to release a report this week laying out its findings.

Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report. ''Let them publish and see what happens,'' said Iran's Foreign Minister and former top nuclear official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semi-official Mehr News Agency reported at the weekend.

Dr Salehi said the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is ''100 per cent political'' and the UN's nuclear watchdog was ''under pressure from foreign powers''.

US intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they choose to.

Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear scientist contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research Centre, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program.

The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military strikes on Iran.
Israeli newspapers reported last week that there was high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's nuclear installations.
''One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more difficult to dial down tensions,'' said Peter Crail, a non-proliferation analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.

''It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's nuclear program with a few air strikes if nothing else works. That's simply not the case.'' http://www.theage.com.au/world/iran-nuclear-report-triggers-appeal-for-calm-20111107-1n3s4.html#ixzz1d4E8uTiK
 
Israel and the West’s rhetoric has been – to put it lightly – heated when it comes to Iran and it has only intensified over recent days and weeks.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, issued a grim warning to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom, which have all reportedly been weighing an unprovoked strike on Iran.

Lavrov said that taking military action against Iran would be a “very serious mistake fraught with unpredictable consequences”.

Indeed the consequences would be unpredictable to a degree, yet predictable in that the fallout would be far from positive for the region and the world... http://www.activistpost.com/2011/11/russian-foreign-minister-issues-grave.html
 
JOKO kirjoitti:
Radar kirjoitti:
Tuon uuden mallin väitetään olevan nimenomaan toimiva suljettua tutkaa vastaan AGM-88E Advanced Anti- Radiation Guided Missile

Millä tarkkuudella tutkan paikka on mahdollista kauempaa määrittää? Loogisesti ajatellen voisi kuvitella paikanmäärityksen jäävän melko roheaksi. Olemattoman pieni virhe vie ohjuksen satojen metrien päähän maalista.

Se on tutkan taajuudesta kiinni. Mitä matalataajuuksinen tutka niin sitä vaikeampi paikka on määrittää. Yhden L-alueen tutkan tarkkuus on 0.2 astetta.
 
Radar kirjoitti:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/11/03/article-2056873-0EA536C900000578-291_634x354.jpg

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2057210/Iran-ready-war-Tehran-retaliate-Israel-West-attack-nuclear-plants.html

Tuon perusteella USA:n maajoukkojen (taisteluun lähetettävien) määrä olisi pudonnut 2003 Irakin sodastakin lähtien.

Pohdimpa sitäkin, oliko USA:n joukkojen lisääminen Afganistaniin toissa kesänä tarkoitettu pelkästään Talibaneja varten? Nythän joukot ovat edullisessa asemassa ja nopeasti hyökkäykseen lähetettävissä maata pitkin Irakista ja Afganistanista sensijaan että joukot pitäisi kuljettaa paikalle suoraan USA:sta tai laskea ensin maihin Irakiin jne.

Maahyökkäys ei vaadi läheskään sellaista valmisteluaikaa kuin 2003. Uskoisin että sotasuunnitelmat on olleet olemassa jo jonkinaikaa ja Iranin maaperä on kartoitettu vuosien aikana satelliiteista (SAR-tutkalla, IP, optroniikalla), tiedustelukoneista ja maasta käsin. Esimerkiksi laivaston SPY-1 tutkalla näkee Persianlahdeltakin aika pitkälle Iranin puolelle mitä siellä tapahtuu.

Tulee mieleen että miksi asiat päätettiin näin pitkälle? Olisiko syynä ollut että ensi yritettiin pakotteilla ja black-opseilla viivyttää ja haitata toimintaa kunnes suunnitelmat, aseet ja joukot + tiedustelu olivat valmiina sekä Irak rauhoittunut.

Jos Iran tosiaan on valmis tuottamaan Plutoniumia niin onko tuo senverran vaativampi operaatio että tuotanto pitää tehdä maanpäällä tai vähemmän salatusti ja tässä vaiheessa nuo laitokset on helpompi tuhota?

Tällaisia operaatioita ei kuitenkaan suunnitella ihan muutamassa viikossa vaan sitä on tehty jo vuosia.

Saas nähdä miten öljyn hinta pomppaa kun sota alkaa.
Nyt onkin mielenkiintoista nähdä miten pörssikurssit heilahtavat kun juhlat alkavat....niin kun ei olisi muutenkin jo tarpeeksi sekavuutta markkinoilla.
 
Torygraph kirjoitti:
As a war in Iran draws closer, Britain should press for peace

Tough diplomacy and sanctions rather than an Israeli air strike remain the best option for dealing with the global pariah.

Twice in the opening decade of this century, Britain has embarked on misbegotten wars – in Afghanistan, where our soldiers are about to resume control of the killing fields of Helmand, and in Iraq. This week may mark the entry to the third and potentially most devastating conflict, this time against Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will shortly issue a report on Tehran’s alleged attempts to develop a nuclear weapon. Specifically, it is expected to confirm the building of a steel container to test the explosives needed to detonate a bomb, as well as detailing plans for uranium enrichment centrifuges and claiming that engineers are working on modifying ballistic missiles to carry nuclear payloads.

This time, the mood is more ominous. Senior Foreign Office figures, alarmed by Israel’s growing isolation in the Middle East, no longer regard air strikes as unthinkable. Far from being surprised at reports that Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for an assault, diplomats point out that Iran has already passed several nuclear “thresholds” that the Israeli PM previously indicated would be insupportable. In the words of one source, “the temperature is rising”.

Were Israel to strike nuclear sites, Iran would certainly retaliate with rocket attacks on Tel Aviv, leaving Barack Obama with little or no choice but to join the conflict in defence of America’s ally, and ours. With Nato already saying that it would play no part in any conflict (a stance on which Germany would surely insist), pressure would fall on Britain to stand with the US, allowing, at the least, for attacks to be launched from the UK base in Diego Garcia.

Reports that Britain’s Armed Forces are stepping up contingency planning to join in an air and sea offensive may be exaggerated. Some sources suggest that such claims have been leaked by MoD officials so worried by the growing mood of aggression in the Pentagon that they wish to sound an alarm, aimed at ensuring Britain’s non-participation.

Still, as Enoch Powell said, “history is littered with wars which everyone knew would never happen”. Several factors beyond the Iranian nuclear advances suggest the runes may now point to conflict. The Arab Spring, besides leaving Israel isolated, has weakened Iran, the last great civilization to choose pariah status. While Israel may see an opportunity to strike, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, held in disdain by a young electorate, might welcome a chance to re-establish itself as a glorious guardian of the revolution.

Saudi Arabia, increasingly concerned about Iran, is thought tacitly to approve the idea of an attack. In America, embroiled in pre-election fever, Mitt Romney, the most plausible Republican challenger, claims that Obama “has thrown Israel under the bus”. :dodgy: :maija: :lanssi:

Lue lisää http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8874531/As-a-war-in-Iran-draws-closer-Britain-should-press-for-peace.html
 
According to a cable released by the Wikileaks in October 2009, “Amano reminded [the] ambassador on several occasions that he would need to make concessions to the G-77 [the developing countries group], which correctly required him to be fair-minded and independent, but that he was solidly in the US court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program.”

In an atmosphere of cringing obedience to Washington, Mr. Amano cannot choose but to play into the hands of the US officials who look over his shoulders and observe with diligence what he puts to paper in the report he writes about Iran.

The US-engineered new allegation against the Islamic Republic which is part of a 15-page document issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency is that Iran carried out “work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components. Some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003” and “some may still be ongoing.” This new allegation is indeed based on the fiction of the laptop of death.

Allegations against the Islamic Republic practically started in 2004 when a mysterious figure handed over to the CIA a laptop he had purloined from an Iranian technician purportedly working at a nuclear plant in Iran. The laptop which has come to be known as the laptop of death is said to contain pages and pages of top-secret information in English detailing Iran’s lust for attaining technical knowhow to produce nuclear payroll for Shahab III missile.

When closely scrutinized one can see that the claim soon begins to lose credibility. Nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation says the biggest loophole in the claim is the crude manner in which the laptop documents were constructed: “What led many of us to have serious doubts about it was how utterly unconnected from reality some of the information seemed. Some of the reports indicated that some of the view graphs were done in PowerPoint, which suggested to me that the program was not terribly sophisticated.” [Inter Press Service, 12/9/2006; New York Times, 12/4/2007]

Another fault which shoots another hole in the claim is that the documents were written in English, a language barely used in official Iranian documents let alone in documents of such paramount sensitivity.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/11/08/iaea-iran-report-thrives-on-laptop-of-lies/


Iippojen puhemies oli kovin tohkeissaan tänä aamuna kun se rupesi manaamaan suurta pahaa. Kaikki oli taas niin kovin väärin, ja kun toimittaja kysyi, "Oletteko valmiita menemään yksin?" niin kiertely alkoi. Joten vahdoin kanavaa ja jatkoin lattian pyyhkimistä.
 
Katon siitä ilmapuolustusta, on niilä jonkin verran ohjuksia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_of_the_Iranian_Army
 
Iran threatens Israel with "destruction"

Tensions in the diplomatic game between Israel and Iran will increase after the IAEA's nuclear report.
Now threatens Iran's Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri with "destruction" if Israel goes on the attack.
- Our response should not be limited to the Middle East, said Masoud Jazayeri to the Iranian TV channel Al-Alam according to AFP.

http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/1.2617067/iran-hotar-israel-med-odelaggelse

Hmmm tuleeko isku myös euroopaan?
 
Hejsan kirjoitti:
Iran threatens Israel with "destruction"

Tensions in the diplomatic game between Israel and Iran will increase after the IAEA's nuclear report.
Now threatens Iran's Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri with "destruction" if Israel goes on the attack.
- Our response should not be limited to the Middle East, said Masoud Jazayeri to the Iranian TV channel Al-Alam according to AFP.

http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/1.2617067/iran-hotar-israel-med-odelaggelse

Hmmm tuleeko isku myös euroopaan?

Jos tulee, niin Iranista päästään lopullisesti. Vastaisku on nimittäin aika kova
 
CBS dokumentti vuodelta 2008 Israelin ilmavoimista jossa haastatellaan silloista komentajaa.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4336313n
En usko että moni poliitikoista ja sotilasjohtajista ajattelee erilailla kuin haastateltu Ilmavoimien komentaja joka sanoo että mikäli Isrealin ilmavoimat häviää yhdenkin sodan, israel lakkaa olemasta.

Israel ei koskaan salli Iranin saavan Ydinasetta varsinkin Iranin uhkausten jälkeen. Israel aloittaa sodan vaikka yksin ja tekee kaikkensa jotta Iranin ydinohjelma tuhotaan. Vaikka sitten taktisia ydinohjuksia.

Nämä kaksi äärinäkemystä vastakkain, varustettuna tuhovoimaisilla aseilla on tämänpäivän Kuuban ohjuskriiisi ja Pandoran lipas.

Lähitulevaisuus näyttää miten maailmanrauhan/sodan käy.
Euroopan valuuttakriisi kalpenee tämän konfliktin rinnalla joka voi nähdä jopa rajoitetun ydinaseen käyttämisen II kerran historiassa.
Ja jos näin käy, kukaan ei voi sanoa mihin päädytään.
 
Ali Shamkhani, entinen amiraali ja Iranin puolustusministeri uhoaa:

Konfliktin kulminaatiopisteet:

Iranin nestemäistä poltto-ainetta käyttävät Shahab-3 ja 3B ja uudempi kiinteätä polttoainetta käyttävä Sajjil-2 jolla on mahdollisesti jopa 2000 km kantama.

Israelin Arrow-3:
Aegis BMD:
 
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Tämä on pari vuotta vanha raportti mutta tänään se on aktuelli.

Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf

Tässä on toinen

Hard Target: Rolling-Back Iranian Nuclear Programmes
http://www.acig.info/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=62&Itemid=47

Iranian Strategic SAM Deployment
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/09/iranian-sam-network.html
 
MOSCOW – A Russian scientist accused of helping Iran develop technology necessary to build a nuclear weapon has denied assisting its nuclear program, a Russian newspaper reported Thursday.

A report released this week by the U.N. nuclear agency said a "foreign expert" had assisted Iran with developing an advanced detonator essential for triggering a nuclear chain reaction. The Washington Post identified him as Vyacheslav Danilenko, a scientist who had worked on the Soviet nuclear program.

The newspaper Kommersant reported that it had spoken to the 76-year-old Danilenko, and quoted him as saying: "I am not a nuclear scientist and I am not the founder of the Iranian nuclear program."

Danilenko, an expert in a process that uses explosions to create tiny diamonds for a range of industrial uses, had worked in Iran in the 1990s. The Post said he told investigators from the International Atomic Energy Agency that he thought his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects.

Kommersant said that starting in the 1950s and until his retirement he had worked at one of the Soviet Union's top nuclear weapons research centers, ...

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111110/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_iran_nuclear

Jotenkin tuntuu että ne ovat päättäneet iskeä faktoista välittämättä.
 
At least one massive explosion at a military weapons depot near the Iranian capital Tehran on Saturday killed several people and was felt at least 45 km miles away, local media reported.

The Revolutionary Guards - Iran's elite military force - said a munitions store at a base in Bidganeh, near the city of Karaj, had exploded, according to a statement carried by the semi-official Fars news agency. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/15-dead-after-explosion-rocks-revolutionary-guards-base-outside-iranian-capital-1.395158
 
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