Thomas C. Theiner
This video was released by the Armenian Ministry of Defense on the first day of the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war [
alempana twiitti-upotus, jossa video].
The Armenians released half a dozen of such gloating videos in the first three days of the war... and then none, because after three days Azerbaijan had broken through Armenian minefields and defense lines and began to run circles around the hapless, incompetently led, shoddily equipped Armenians.
The reason I am showing you this video is to make everyone realize that the first days of an offensive are ALWAYS the most difficult for an attacker.
In the first days defenders sit in their prepared positions behind by minefields, and still have all their tanks & artillery, still have ample ammunition, still have all their troops, still have functioning logistics, still have reserves.
An offensive needs to grind down these resources of the defender, before a breakthrough can be accomplished and exploited.
There are various ways to do this and all of them take time: the 1991 Gulf War ground campaign lasted just four days, because before its start coalition aircraft had subjected Iraq for 38 days and nights to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history.
We can't judge the success of the Kherson offensive now. The Second Battle of El Alamein looked like a disaster for the British for its first twelve days, the Battle of Waterloo shaped up to be a disastrous British defeat until 4 pm in the afternoon. In Normandy the allies failed to achieve any of their goals on the first day and it took them 55 days to finally exhaust the Germans and break out from Normandy.
Every day now Ukrainian troops degrade russian manpower, equipment, and logistics. We will know the outcome of the battle in a few days... when one side will run out of troops, ammo, logistics, and reserves.
The russians, whose supply lines run over the Dnipro bridges, which are pounded relentlessly by HIMARS strikes, are likely to be exhausted first... but until then Ukraine will lose many troops, tanks and vehicles... but these losses tell us nothing about the success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive.
At this point no one can make an assessment about the success or failure of the offensive - not even the russian general staff, not even the Ukrainian general staff.
So be patient. For now fighting rages and we don't know, which side has the upper hand in manpower and materiel.
I believe it to be the Ukrainians, because they have more and better trained troops, Western precision weapons, higher morale, ample ammo supplies, and now also air support (thanks to American HARM missiles and Turkish TB2).
Once Ukrainian troops reach the Dnipro, we will now for sure. Until then: Слава Україні!
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Alkuperäinen twiitti, josta teksti
