POLITICS
At the beginning of winter, the situation with the ammunition of the occupiers will become acutely critical
Alexander Kovalenko
September 2, 2022 | 10:26
The Russians began to have problems, shortages, with ammunition. It is these messages that increasingly catch the eye, and even accompanied by some very beautiful graphs and tables. Well, in order not to experience overly high hopes that tomorrow they will run out of 122-mm, 152-mm and other shells, and then ask completely inappropriate questions over the next six months - we explain.
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, many said that, one way or another, the Russians should run out of missile weapons, cruise missiles, aviation, ballistic missiles.
And now, just a week later, caustic questions were already heard from numerous “experts” from the sofas that the shelling was continuing! True, these "experts" did not pay attention to the fact that in comparison with February, already in March, shelling with this range of weapons decreased by 15% -20%.
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, many said that, one way or another, the Russians should run out of missile weapons, cruise missiles, aviation, ballistic missiles.
And now, just a week later, caustic questions were already heard from numerous “experts” from the sofas that the shelling was continuing! True, these "experts" did not pay attention to the fact that in comparison with February, already in March, shelling with this range of weapons decreased by 15% -20%.
To date, the Russian command, in agreement with Minsk, has gained access to 1405, 1398, 1886 warehouses and 25, 43, 46 ammunition storage arsenals. In August, they removed more than 12 thousand tons of ammunition to reduce the delivery time.
But the Belarusian moneybox is not endless, especially in conditions when, without the tactics of a barrage, the Russians cannot help but attack and defend. And this is a mega-gluttonous tactic.
The next, very important point - in almost all warehouses in Russia, ammunition was stored in conditions that were not quite acceptable, and a significant part of them are simply not suitable for use. And therefore, you can safely throw out all sorts of tables with shot BC and, which theoretically are still in storage, because they do not reflect the real situation.
Let me remind you that in addition to ammunition depots and storage centers, Russia still has the production of ammunition, which initially suggests that they will never run out of ammunition, namely, the degree of its scarcity will increase.
Summing up.
In the near future, 2-3 months, the invaders will still be provided with ammunition of all calibers as needed. They will not be able to implement the tactics of a barrage of fire everywhere, but exclusively in separate and narrow sectors of the front.
In late autumn, early winter, the situation with BC will move from scarce to acutely critical. They will not stop firing, of course, but they will be able to do it with much less intensity, which will significantly affect their ability to defend all bridgeheads. After all, how to keep the defense, if you need to fire 60 thousand shells per day, and 10 thousand were brought to you. And tomorrow 5 thousand. And the day after tomorrow there was no delivery at all.
As they say - Christmas is coming!
Koneiden määrä ei kerro mistään mitään jos niitä ei kukaan huolla eikä niillä kukaan lennä. Venäjä varastaa jo siiviilikoneistakin varaosia jos sitä varastamiseksi voi tässä vaiheessa sanoa kun ovat varastaneet (kansallistaneet) ne ulkomailta vuokratut koneet jo aikoja sitten. Ei se tilanne taida olla paljon sen parempi ilmavoimillakaan. Pakotteet ovat hidas tapa sotia mutta juurikin näissä asioissa siitä on hyötyä heti eikä vasta huomenna kun Venäjä ei tuota ja valmista itse paljon muuta kun puhdasta paskaa tai ainakin paskaa.
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