etappisika
Luutnantti
Mielestäni tuo kaveri joka oli haavoittuneen seurassa oli hyvinkin asiallinen huomioon ottaen kuumottava ja hengenvaarallinen tilanne.
Morapuukko
Alikersantti
Tämä on ilmeisesti toisen henkilön kuvaama video samasta kähinästä.
Oli jossain vaiheessa juttua, että noin 100000 pääsi Ukrainan hallussapitämälle alueelle, 100000 joutu ryssiin ja loput jäi kaupunkiin. Kuinka paljon lopuista sitten on hengissä on toinen juttu.
Tosiaan, ei oo vissiin vielä täällä käsiteltykään;
Tässä kävi niin, että vastauksena Viron aselähetyksille Venäjä karkottaa Viron lähettilään. Vastauksena tähän, sekä Viro, että Latvia karkottavat Venäjän lähettiläät.
Viimeksi muokattu:
ajs178
Respected Leader
Stenvallilla alkaa olla jo aikamoinen kokoelma näitä Ukrainan sodan inspiroimia maalauksia. Kannattaisi kysyä joltain ukrainalaiselta taidegallerialta tai museolta, jos voisi pitää näyttelyn vaikka Lvivissä. Luulen että voisivat kiinnostaa ukrainalaisia. Tai miksei Puolassa
Antares
Respected Leader
Jaroslaw Wolski arvioi aikaisemmin ryssän kapasiteettia remontoida / modernisoida / aktivoida "varastovaunuja" sekä rauhanaikana että sota-aikana. Tämä oli hänen arvionsa, jossa tehtiin useita oletuksia. Myös Pekka Toveri kertoi aikaisemmin arvionsa. Ainakin julkisten lähteiden ja taistelukentältä saatavan kuva- ja videomateriaalin perusteella nämä arviot vaikuttivat liian suurilta. Oletan että arviot kertoivat teoreettisesta kapasiteetista, olettaen ettei tule ongelmia osaavan työvoiman määrän kanssa, varaosien ja uusien osien saatavuuden kanssa tms.
JR2 juoruili tänään Uralvagonzavodin ongelmista, kopioin ketjun tekstin alle:
#Russian Uralvagonzavod (tank production) urgently needs metal machinery workers. Local Prison Directorate is to select and send 250 workers there. The situation is dire in all military industry factories. Shortage of electronics, electricity & automation is gravely critical.
Russia assess the vacancies to 40k-50k. All retired personnel was requested to return to jobs. Still few want to take the job due to low salaries. Military industry pays machinery operators 40k rubles (€550) a month while non-military - even 80k.
Russians anonymously say:
“I can take it, but I need a salary like a private in [special military operation], three meals a day & free lodging.”
“I left the job in military industry with 27k rubles. Average worker age was 58 and growing.”
See the assembly of the Mi-28 and guess their age.
And the training of young professionals is on decline for years. 5 years ago 220k trainees started their apprenticeships. 18 years ago it was 688k. If the tendency is linear the pool is shrinking the way that cannot be reversed in a day. YouTubers, TikTokers are better paid.
ajs178
Respected Leader
Kyllä Trabi myös on edelleen sympaattinen
Eihän se "Gertrud" ollut kuin Itävallan ulkoministeri joka on perussuomalaisten veljespuolueen mandaatilla hallituksessa. Mut ei tuo merkkaa mitään kuten Huhtasaarikin hanakasti totesi. Ihan normaalia suhdetoimintaa ja kyllä ne muutkin tekee Euroopassa vaikutustyötä.
Tuleepahan mieleen että millaisia valokuvia/videoita on jossain venäläisessä kassakaapissa joissa aiheena on Scholz ja joku Irina.
Poisto
Viimeksi muokattu:
Hilan lukko
Ylipäällikkö
Jawohl, Karin se oli.
ultimateidiot
Kapteeni
Joo, vähän aikaa sitten tuli 30mm konetykistä viereen, ja kaveria osu jalkaan, mutta kanoille ei kyllä saisi siltikään vittuilla... ja sehän on siinä videollakin, että se koitti sitä peltiaitaa saada kranaatilla nurin että saisi kaverille evakuointireitin? Yllättävän rauhallinenhan tuo on tilanteeseen nähden.
Nostetaan tuosta lopusta tuon tytön kommentti:
Most pleasant moment. When I was brushing my teeth for first time in a month and watching how the Russian tank "Ural" was burning
Tarkennuksena Venäjä karkotti Viron suurlähettilään, johon vastauksena Viro ja Latvia karkottavat venäjän lähettilään.
hyvis
Majuri
Mikä siitä 2A4 Leosta tekee useamman kirjoittajan mielestä huonon? Pitäisi olla kaikilla mittareilla melkoisen paljon parempi vaunu, kuin mikään, mitä vanjalla on laittaa sitä vastaan. Vai olenko missannut joitain? Se käsittääkseni on ergonomisempi, nopeampi, vakaampi, paremmin panssaroitu (ainakin etusektorista), sillä on läpäisykykyinen a-tarvike ja se on luultavasti paremmalla, tai vähintään yhtä hyvällä optoelektroniikalla varustettu, kuin mikään vanjan T-sarjalainen. Ainoa miinus taitaa tulla isommasta koosta ja sitä kautta painosta. Että mikä mättää?
stunt cock
Luutnantti
No ei niissä kuvissa ainakaan kassit näy.
etappisika
Luutnantti
Vaikea tietysti sanoa mitä kaveri päässä liikkui, mutta adrenaliinit tapissa, kaveri haavoittuneena, tilanne epäselvä, ei radioita jne, niin siinä saattaa jaloissa pörräävät kanat tuntua yhtäkkiä helvetin ärsyttäviltä. Ja käsittääkseni tuolla kranaatilla oli ideana saada hajotettua sitä estettä. Mutta näin sohvasoturina en kehtaa psykologisoida tämän enempää. Larppaukseksi en kuitenkaan kutsuisi.
IT-nörtti
Luutnantti
Tai paksu Sisu, eli PakSu
Antares
Respected Leader
Jaroslaw Wolski kirjoitti arviostaan 4.1.2023, lainaan twitter-ketjun alle kokonaisuudessaan: LÄHDE
Will Russia run out of tanks?
Someday for sure, but not in 2023 - and that's what this thread is about.
Please keep forwarding.
Russian losses in technology are overwhelming at first glance, in real terms irretrievably around:
1900 tanks
3200 BMP/WP/TO
800 OTHERS
In total, the whole "technique" from tanks to armored vehicles RUS irretrievably lost about 6000 pieces.
Knockout?
Unfortunately not.
First of all, RUS had a gigantic hardware potential. Tanks as an example:
"3+3+3"
3300 tanks in line
3000 machines that can be mobilized in a year and 3000 machines that can be "recovered" with a sufficiently large and long mobilization process.
At the same time, it is important to emphasize that there are more tanks in Russia - even several thousand, but the vehicles above the above-mentioned 9000 machines in total are already a certain "black number" whose real value is impossible to estimate.
The loss of about 2000 tanks is severe (2/3 out of 3300 full-time machines) but it is "only" 1/3 of what the Russians are able to mobilize in a year. Surprise? I already explain why not. In Russia, up to a certain point, the production data of tanks/BMPs and repair plants were open.
ON THE ROOM:
UVZ (eli Uralvagonzavod eli Nizhny Tagilin tehdas) up to 200 to 300 machines per year
Kurganmash - as above (BMP only)
Omsk as a repair shop - 62 T-80BVM per year, etc.
And there are also 5 regional repair plants which become factories after mobilization.
They renovated from 80 to 180 pieces of technique. Yes, during peacetime RUS had the ability to produce/renovate from 860 to 1500 pieces of technology.
Below, an information board of one of the five regional plants with "production" (cars repaired with mileage reset) -
(HUOM: otsikon käännös: VOLUME OF PRODUCTS BY YEAR - alla olevan kuvan alkuperäinen lähde A. Khlopotov blogim julkaisu 6.8.2015 LINKKI, LINKKI 2
ONE of the repair and repair plants in Russia (БТРЗ № 61) only in 2015 renovated 188 T-72 and T-80 tanks... And these are not modernized cars, but overhauled (major repairs))
How much are RUS able to repair on a war footing? In theory, the minimum is DOUBLE in relation to peacetime. Estimated from 1600 to 3000 pieces of technology. Currently, the Russians say that in one of the mobilized repair plants they will release 230-260 units per year, e.g. T-62M
Propaganda because it is openly stated? Not necessarily - it is completely convergent, e.g. with the known duplicated peacetime values of district repair facilities. And they have five working units, plus 3 large factories that survived the USSR.
So will the RUS complement themselves with a light hand in two years of losses?
Neither - fortunately, the repairs of the Armed Forces in Russia in the previous decade were made with the use of components from the mobilization states
As a result, in some RUS groups they have terrifying deficiencies: hence, for example, we see the "new" T-62M and T-90M, but with vehicles with 2A46 guns have problems. In turn, they have a lot of W46 engines, but problems with the W84MS, etc.
Redevelopments in Russian with a margin of 5% are now hiccuping. Therefore, RUS will not get the maximum capacity to mobilize the industry.
BUT you should be aware that without major problems, a year after the holiday mobilization of the industry, they will implement a little more than 2000 pieces of "techniques", i.e. tanks, IFVs, TOs, KTOs, AHSs, etc. So 1/3 of the losses they have already suffered. And because they intensively buy missing components in the countries to which they exported SPW.
We can expect an improvement, not a deterioration, of the RUS mobilization capacity of the industry.
So where will the bottlenecks of the Russians be?
- senior officers
- artillery ammunition
- communication in the attack
- battlefield aviation,
etc.
But it will certainly not be "lack of technology".
Someday for sure, but not in 2023 - and that's what this thread is about.
Please keep forwarding.
Russian losses in technology are overwhelming at first glance, in real terms irretrievably around:
1900 tanks
3200 BMP/WP/TO
800 OTHERS
In total, the whole "technique" from tanks to armored vehicles RUS irretrievably lost about 6000 pieces.
Knockout?
Unfortunately not.
First of all, RUS had a gigantic hardware potential. Tanks as an example:
"3+3+3"
3300 tanks in line
3000 machines that can be mobilized in a year and 3000 machines that can be "recovered" with a sufficiently large and long mobilization process.
At the same time, it is important to emphasize that there are more tanks in Russia - even several thousand, but the vehicles above the above-mentioned 9000 machines in total are already a certain "black number" whose real value is impossible to estimate.
The loss of about 2000 tanks is severe (2/3 out of 3300 full-time machines) but it is "only" 1/3 of what the Russians are able to mobilize in a year. Surprise? I already explain why not. In Russia, up to a certain point, the production data of tanks/BMPs and repair plants were open.
ON THE ROOM:
UVZ (eli Uralvagonzavod eli Nizhny Tagilin tehdas) up to 200 to 300 machines per year
Kurganmash - as above (BMP only)
Omsk as a repair shop - 62 T-80BVM per year, etc.
And there are also 5 regional repair plants which become factories after mobilization.
They renovated from 80 to 180 pieces of technique. Yes, during peacetime RUS had the ability to produce/renovate from 860 to 1500 pieces of technology.
Below, an information board of one of the five regional plants with "production" (cars repaired with mileage reset) -
(HUOM: otsikon käännös: VOLUME OF PRODUCTS BY YEAR - alla olevan kuvan alkuperäinen lähde A. Khlopotov blogim julkaisu 6.8.2015 LINKKI, LINKKI 2
ONE of the repair and repair plants in Russia (БТРЗ № 61) only in 2015 renovated 188 T-72 and T-80 tanks... And these are not modernized cars, but overhauled (major repairs))
How much are RUS able to repair on a war footing? In theory, the minimum is DOUBLE in relation to peacetime. Estimated from 1600 to 3000 pieces of technology. Currently, the Russians say that in one of the mobilized repair plants they will release 230-260 units per year, e.g. T-62M
Propaganda because it is openly stated? Not necessarily - it is completely convergent, e.g. with the known duplicated peacetime values of district repair facilities. And they have five working units, plus 3 large factories that survived the USSR.
So will the RUS complement themselves with a light hand in two years of losses?
Neither - fortunately, the repairs of the Armed Forces in Russia in the previous decade were made with the use of components from the mobilization states
As a result, in some RUS groups they have terrifying deficiencies: hence, for example, we see the "new" T-62M and T-90M, but with vehicles with 2A46 guns have problems. In turn, they have a lot of W46 engines, but problems with the W84MS, etc.
Redevelopments in Russian with a margin of 5% are now hiccuping. Therefore, RUS will not get the maximum capacity to mobilize the industry.
BUT you should be aware that without major problems, a year after the holiday mobilization of the industry, they will implement a little more than 2000 pieces of "techniques", i.e. tanks, IFVs, TOs, KTOs, AHSs, etc. So 1/3 of the losses they have already suffered. And because they intensively buy missing components in the countries to which they exported SPW.
We can expect an improvement, not a deterioration, of the RUS mobilization capacity of the industry.
So where will the bottlenecks of the Russians be?
- senior officers
- artillery ammunition
- communication in the attack
- battlefield aviation,
etc.
But it will certainly not be "lack of technology".
Wolski kirjoitti 9.1.2023 eli pari päivää myöhemmin toisen ketjun, jossa antoi täsmennyksen siitä miltä tilanne näyttää tällä hetkellä: LÄHDE
The quoted data is in about 10 days: RUS delivery of 55 tanks to the front. Monthly, this is the level of about 160 machines, but RUS has not yet fully developed the restoration of machines - because they do not have many components - which is roughly 1/4 to 1/5 of the originally planned capacity
Viitatun ketjun käännös:
A small summary of what armor has recently been observed by colleagues in deliveries to the front: Approx. 20 T-62M/MW Approx. 20-25 T-80B/BW and T-72B/BW (All above long-term maintenance vehicles that could be restored to working order - mentioned @wolski_jaros );
Approx. 15 pieces of a jumble of different types. From T72B3xx through T-80BWM to T-90A/S/M - here are vehicles that have been repaired (also as a result of combat damage) and possibly brand new. The stream of deliveries is irregular, seems a bit chaotic (constant problems with the usual, i.e. uneven accessibility to some components), but it is there.
And although they do not benefit from the internal competition for even snatching available engines or side gears ("Prigożyn style" Oj, joj ), unfortunately, they are, for better or worse, in a replenish losses in armored technology.
The fact that it more and more often takes the form of "slightly flimsy" equipment is noticed not without malicious satisfaction. More coming soon as more materials become available.
However, this would mean around 1,900 tanks a year minimum. Fortunately, the RUS have serious shortages in the 2A46 cannons, W46 engines, side gears, etc. Therefore, these deliveries will be non-linear and "jerky" (sometimes more, sometimes less, depending on the availability of components)
In this thread:
(katso ylle lainattu teksti, spoilerin takana)
I gave the estimated minimum values:
How much are RUS able to repair on a war footing? In theory, the minimum is DOUBLE in relation to peacetime. Estimated from 1600 to 3000 pieces of technology. Currently, the Russians say that in one of the mobilized repair plants they will release 230-260 units per year, e.g. T-62M
Estimated 1,600 to 3,000 units of "technics" (armored vehicles)
Tank delivery figures theoretically indicate the upper range of ALE
due to the mentioned problems with the availability of components, I still insist that they will deliver over 2k machines (up to 3k) but tanks, BMPs, and BTRs. However, you should watch the deliveries carefully because there are a lot of them anyway. A lot.
However, in tanks, I think that the smallest problem will be with the T-80BVM and T-90M and ... T-62M. Where the RUS are in the forest, there are the T-80B and above all: the T-72B and T-72A families.
Viitatun ketjun käännös:
A small summary of what armor has recently been observed by colleagues in deliveries to the front: Approx. 20 T-62M/MW Approx. 20-25 T-80B/BW and T-72B/BW (All above long-term maintenance vehicles that could be restored to working order - mentioned @wolski_jaros );
Approx. 15 pieces of a jumble of different types. From T72B3xx through T-80BWM to T-90A/S/M - here are vehicles that have been repaired (also as a result of combat damage) and possibly brand new. The stream of deliveries is irregular, seems a bit chaotic (constant problems with the usual, i.e. uneven accessibility to some components), but it is there.
And although they do not benefit from the internal competition for even snatching available engines or side gears ("Prigożyn style" Oj, joj ), unfortunately, they are, for better or worse, in a replenish losses in armored technology.
The fact that it more and more often takes the form of "slightly flimsy" equipment is noticed not without malicious satisfaction. More coming soon as more materials become available.
However, this would mean around 1,900 tanks a year minimum. Fortunately, the RUS have serious shortages in the 2A46 cannons, W46 engines, side gears, etc. Therefore, these deliveries will be non-linear and "jerky" (sometimes more, sometimes less, depending on the availability of components)
In this thread:
(katso ylle lainattu teksti, spoilerin takana)
I gave the estimated minimum values:
How much are RUS able to repair on a war footing? In theory, the minimum is DOUBLE in relation to peacetime. Estimated from 1600 to 3000 pieces of technology. Currently, the Russians say that in one of the mobilized repair plants they will release 230-260 units per year, e.g. T-62M
Estimated 1,600 to 3,000 units of "technics" (armored vehicles)
Tank delivery figures theoretically indicate the upper range of ALE
due to the mentioned problems with the availability of components, I still insist that they will deliver over 2k machines (up to 3k) but tanks, BMPs, and BTRs. However, you should watch the deliveries carefully because there are a lot of them anyway. A lot.
However, in tanks, I think that the smallest problem will be with the T-80BVM and T-90M and ... T-62M. Where the RUS are in the forest, there are the T-80B and above all: the T-72B and T-72A families.
Näiden lisäksi ovat regional repair plants eli aikaisemmin mainitut "armored repair plant" tai Бронетанковый ремонтный завод / БТРЗ. Wolski kirjoittaa että näitä olisi viisi ja ne olisivat alueellisia eli oletan että palvelevat kyseistä sotilaspiiriä TAI toinen vaihtoehto olisi että sijainti on alueellinen eli yksi per "sotilasalue" mutta jokainen olisi erikoistunut tiettyjen sotakoneiden huoltoon eli koko maan osalta nämä viisi hoitavat kaikkien "armored" ajoneuvojen huollon.
HUOM: Wolski puhuu twitter-ketjussaan viidestä "regional repair plants" muttei nimeä niitä. Tutkin asiaa ja kirjoitin tästä toisessa ketjussa (LINKKI). Ainakin vuodelta 2014 löytyi artikkeli jossa mainittiin kahdeksan tällaista korjaamoa. Ehkä vuoden 2014 jälkeen Venäjä on tehnyt yhtiöjärjestelyjä joiden myötä muutama näistä on jäänyt virattomiksi? Tai ehkä Wolski puhuu raskaamman sotilaskaluston remontoijista, jolloin ehkä muutama näistä kahdeksasta "pajasta" ei ole laskettu mukaan?
Löysin lisäksi kaksi sodan aikana perustettua (ainakin näiden perustaminen on kerrottu julkisuudessa) joten näitä on kymmenen (oletuksena että jokainen on toiminnassa, tämä ei ole perusteellinen tutkinta joten virheiden mahdollisuus on ilmeinen):
- JSC "22 BTRZ",
- JSC "61 BTRZ",
- JSC "81 BTRZ",
- JSC "103 BTRZ",
- JSC "144 BTRZ",
- OJSC "163 BTRZ",
- OJSC "560 BTRZ",
- JSC "192 CZZHT"
- JSC "71 BTRZ"
- JSC "72 BTRZ"
Venäjällä on näiden lisäksi muita korjauspajoja muulle kalustolle, heillä on erikseen mm. 9-й ЦАРЗ / JSC "9 CARZ"/ 9 TsARZ / 9-Y Tsentral'nyy Avtomobil'nyy Remontnyy Zavod eli "9th Central Automobile Repair Plant". Kuten nimestä voi päätellä, nämä tekevät "automobiilien" huoltoja mutta löysin myös tietoa että korjaisivat (ainakin joskus) myös MT-LB kalustoa.
Modernisointia ja uustuotantoa tekevät tehtaat ovat erikseen (Wolskin ketjusta arvio kapasiteetille):
- UVZ / JSC Uralvagonzavod - T-90M, T-72B3, T-72B3 obr 2016, T-72B3 obr 2022 - up to 200 to 300 machines per year
- Kurganmash / JSC Kurganmashzavod - (BMP only) - up to 200 to 300 machines per year
- Omsk / Omsktransmash as a repair shop - 62 T-80BVM per year, etc.
Venäjällä pitäisi siis ainakin teoriassa olla korjaamokapasiteettia panssarivaunujen ja muun kaluston kunnostamiselle. Iso kysymysmerkki on sopivien aihioiden määrä, osaavan työvoiman määrä, varaosien sekä uusien osien määrä yms.
He ovat kärsineet kaluston osalta menetyksiä jokaisessa kategoriassa joten korjattavaa ja korvattavaa on runsaasti. Wolskin kirjoittama on yksi arvio kapasiteetista mutta se ei välttämättä vastaa todellisuutta tällaisena aikana.
Leaderwolf
Respected Leader
Ehkä ainoita hyviä asioita Saksassa nykypäivänä, on yhä tuo kieli. "Flugabwehrraketengeschwader 1" . Kaikki kuulostaa wunderwaffeilta saksaksi.