I met the IDF at all levels in Israel. From a meeting with Yoav Gallant, the defence minster, and IDF strategic planners, to ordinary IDF soldiers. Here’s two long posts on two of my conclusions.
Conclusion 1: Political / Strategic
There is no question that the hawks are in charge and they see Israel’s current crisis as an existential threat. They see four political groupings in the Middle East. Three of them were described as “branches of the same poisonous tree”. They see them as based on an overarching idea of Islamist totalitarianism (based on Muhammad as the first totalitarian dictator - not the racial theories of Nazism or class politics of communism but the conquering ideology of early Islam). It was called a marriage of that early “conquering Islam” with the idea of a totalitarian state with a singular leader.
They perceive three variants, as briefed from an Israeli strategic perspective:
1) “Salafist jihadis in a hurry”. Extremist Sunnis such Al Qaeda and Islamic State.
2) More patient Sunni jihadists: namely the Muslim Brotherhood. Backed by two aggressive players: Erdogan (strategic backing) and Qatar (money). They lost power in Egypt because the Egyptian military didn’t want to be neutered as the Turkish military were by Erdogan. They still dominate half of Libya (with the other half backed by Sisi’s Egypt). They dominate Gaza (Hamas). The Qataris have been funding them there in the hope they would be “domesticated”. In Syria, they are mixed up with AQ remnants around Irbil. Jordan & Israel (in the West Bank) have mild and conciliatory versions. Hamas are friends of Iran but not a proxy: they work with not for them).
3) The Iranian dominated camp. Mainly Shia. Iran wants a regional and global revolution - it doesn’t accept the global post-1945 order. Israel is presented as the embodiment of this global evil: hence “the Zionist entity”. This is an exterminatory position, as far as Israel is concerned. Iran doesn’t have the checks Turkey has (ie NATO membership, EU ties). That this is a revolutionary agenda is the only conclusion, because otherwise Iran has no logical quarrel with Israel. We were told in no uncertain terms that a reckoning is coming before Iran gets nukes.
This category also encompasses the Iranian proxy system in which they’ve invested huge effort and resources. It has little to do with Iran as a state, per se: it’s all about the Islamic revolutionary agenda. Hezbollah in Lebanon (such as it still exists as a state). Syria: dominated in equal parts (Russians - air force, Iran - militias, including Hezbollah). Iranian dominated militias in Iraq. Yemen - the Houthis. Their plan: relieve pressure on Gaza, punish Israel.
That’s why Israel sees the current fight as an existential threat. They’re surrounded. Israel’s plan in response: taking attacks to Iran in Syria, not just their proxies (most notably including the IRGC general and his team coordinating the proxies, in the strike on 1 April).
4) This is the camp that stands against the three Islamist threats. They see Israel as still in broadly good standing in spite of differences (see the response to the Iranian missile attacks). Even the Palestinian Authority are against Hamas. This camp further includes Egypt under Sisi, Saudi, UAE, Jordan, Morocco, and US elements in Syria (Kurds). Also Greece & Cyprus (the IDF train for Lebanon in the Troodos mountains in Cyprus).
en.wikipedia.org
