Kun painuivat päät muun kansan maan, vain THL uskoi yhä
Tärkeintä on uskoa aina niitä ihmisiä joilla on Virka. Mieluiten vakivirka. Koska joskus nekin arvaavat oikein
THL:n lippua virkamiesten, käsivarret hiirikyynärpäiset kantaa...
https://www.iltalehti.fi/koronavirus/a/e8db9cea-80bc-486c-b3f2-253da34ce6a8
"Helsingin ja Uudenmaan sairaanhoitopiiri Hus tiedotti aiemmin tällä viikolla, että sen potilasvirrat ovat tähän mennessä noudattaneet hämmästyttävän hyvin THL:n matalampaa ennustetta covid-19-taudin kehittymisestä. Ennuste tehtiin 25. maaliskuuta.
– Husin potilasvirrat ovat olleet yllättävänkin yhtenevät matalamman tason ennusteiden kanssa. Kuitenkin rakennamme valmiuttamme mallien vakavimpien skenaarioiden mukaisesti ja jopa niiden yli. Näin varmistamme, että kaikille potilaille voidaan tarjota paras mahdollinen lääketieteellinen hoito, sanoo toimitusjohtaja Juha Tuominen Husin tiedotteessa."
STM:n lääkintöneuvos Mikko Paunio (yksi maanpuolustuskurssien pääopettajista) kirjoittaa kommenttia omaan artikkeliinsa, napattu Facebookista. Keskeisin viesti on, että USA:ssa arvioivat vasta-aineseerumiotoksilla oireettomien/lieväoireisten määrän olevan Kalifornian Santa Claran maakunnassa, sikäläisissä olosuhteissa, jopa 50-80 -kertainen testeillä varmistettujen määrään ja infektoituneista kuolleiden osuus olisi näin 0,2-0,12 prosenttia. Syyttää WHO:n pomoa harhaanjohtamisesta, mutta toiseen suuntaan kuin mitä Trumppi syyttää.
Tämäkin uusi tieto antaa viitteitä THL:n arvioiden ja ennusteiden oikeellisuuteen (THL arvioinut Suomen olosuhteissa infektion saaneiden kuolleisuudeksi 0,1-0,05%, oireettomien / lieväoireisten osuus 20-30 kertainen suhteessa testeillä osoitettujen määrään), vaikka täälläkin on tietäjien joukko ulvonut sieltä päitä vadeille kuin paraskin susilauma. Jos olettaa että Suomen terveydenhuoltojärjestelmä toimisi kokonaisuutena paremmin kuin USA:ssa, nuo arviot asettuisivat hyvinkin kohdalleen.
Further evidence of erroneous WHO Feb 25th lethality assessment of SARS-CoV-2
18.4.2020 Mikko Paunio, MD, MHS (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health), adjunct professor in general epidemiology at the University of Helsinki
Outbreak continues in NYC
My interpretation of herd immunity build-up in NYC was premature as this data (1) is lagging and epidemic has so far only plateaued. Such build-up seems however peferctly plausible (see below) in cities like NYC with such high infection rates. Serological surveys from NYC will tell later on what level of herd immunity was reached in NYC after the epidemic has taken its course.
Chinese: “Herd immunity in Wuhan is far from reality”
Chinese now claim that almost no one – including healthcare personnel and security officials - in their epicentre of COVID-19 outbreak Wuhan - except those who had COVID-19 have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The Chinese claim is hard to understand unless immunity against SARS-CoV-2 wanes rapidly.
In my report I describe convincingly that asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections are very common in different populations.
The following information is now available, which I have not included in my report.
Linköping Hospital staff survey
A PCR swab survey was done in early April in Linköping University Hospital in Sweden after COVID19 patients had been admitted to the hospital. The survey was done as a precautionary measure to make sure there would be enough health care personnel in the surgical ward if the epidemic situation got worse.
All of the 50 healthcare personnel of the surgical ward were tested. It appeared that 50 % were SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive and when State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell commented, he said that the number of those with immunity would be higher. Almost all had no symptoms.
Boston homeless survey
Broad-scale testing took place at the Pine Street Inn homeless shelter in Boston’s South End in early April because of a small cluster of COVID-19 cases. Of the 397 people tested, 146 (37%) people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
Santa Ana serosurvey
Standford University and local officials of Santa Ana County organized a large sero-survey in early April to find out the true rate of infections in the population. The study group was targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geo-graphic characteristics. They now report the prevalence of antibodies to SARSCoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people. Their report is not yet peer reviewed.
They summarize their findings as following:
“The most important implication of these findings is that the number of infections is much greater than the reported number of cases. Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study.17 The infection to case ratio, also referred to as an under-ascertainment rate, of at least 50, is meaningfully higher than current estimates.10,18 This ascertainment rate is a fundamental parameter of many projection and epidemiologic models, and is used as a calibration target for understanding epidemic stage and calculating fatality rates.19,20 The under-ascertainment for COVID19 is likely a function of reliance on PCR for case identification which misses convalescent cases, early spread in the absence of systematic testing, and asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that go undetected.”
If multiply the current NYC confirmed COVID-19 cases by 50 I get over six million infected in NYC, which could be sufficient to provide herd immunity for the NYC population.
"A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower."
Their IFR estimate is close to my estimate based on serosurveys from Denmark and Finland.
WHO’s risk assessment based on information from Wuhan in February 25. was wrong
Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward and the team leader of the Wuhan mission in February 25. said that “he did not see evidence that a large number of mild cases of the novel disease called Covid-19 are evading detection”. He also claimed that SARS-CoV-2 would be approximately as lethal as Spanish flu.
References
1.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
2.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-..._XocCH5nB9bMI83OT1BCDPHMK_-zCyz5nqfoqngruvXRk
3.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/...Igr1B3eyOSMdyq9JZQLMIUVuZ8DD9PKK5u85PX0k0NoYU
4.
https://www.wsoctv.com/news/trendin...DQeoKgvaeQoJKErb5UhpMvQNL2Tm3vG995pPuU_q9OvGU
5.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10....wUQOsl3iO3e0oeT_X82_hrd2YIW0Hiu8jK-lMY7gGUN0M
seura.fi
Jos massiivinen ruudinpolttotehtävä lankeaa hoidettavaksi, niin tiedottamislinjalta ei kannata odottaa liikoja ajankohtaisia tietoja....eikä ainakaan faktoja per päivä.
areena.yle.fi
www.is.fi
