Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Eikö tää nyt oo se sama kahden pataljoonan motti mitä huhuttiin twitterissä jo mielestäni eilen ja täälläkin monta kertaa tänää ollu?

Varmaankin, nyt tuli ainakin todisteita. Mulla menee karttojen resoluutioiden ja kielien kanssa välillä sormi suuhun 😊

Pahoittelen, jos todisteet on jo olleet täällä. Kärppänä olen tätä lankaa seurannut siitä lähtien kun rysyt aloittivat kolmen päivän erikoisensa.
 
Se vaan, että vaikka toimisikin, niin kantama varmaan niin lyhyt ettei tiedolla tee mitään.
Tämä, eikä tuo videon Temupaljastinkaan toimi kuin vasta näköetäisyydellä. Toisaalta, jos paljastimen vuodolla ei ole mitään väliä, niin tuolla voi varmaan välttyä miliisien mielivallalta tiettyyn pisteeseen asti.

Ohjuksesta jos saa jollain oikealla 500 euron paljastimella tiedon kun ohjus on 2km päässä, niin reagointiaikaa jää alle sekunti. Eli ei sillä oikeasti mitään tee ohjuksia vastaan, kun teho on niin heikko siihen paljastamiseen.
 
Hyvin näkee kuinka ryssillä on aina vaan sama ongelma, reagointi yllättäviin tilanteisiin on hidasta ja paniikinomaista.
Paljon koordinoimattomia liikkeitä ja varautuminen olematonta, ei ole suunnitelmia valmiina... :)

Tainnut tulla tämä täytenä yllätyksen heille (tuli se mullekin), koska sutsi satsi ja eskalaation tuoksu pöksyissä.

Täysi tuki multa tälle ihanalle iskulle! Varovainen Ukrainan tässä pitää kuitenkin olla ettei tule ylilyöntejä, kuvia sotilaista varastelemassa jne. Silloin ääni saattaa lännessä muuttua äkisti.

Onneksi edes rysyjen propaganda ei ole onnistunut vielä muuta kuin epämääräisellä filmillä jossa YKSI Ukrainan kaveri käy yhdessä tai kahdessa talossa kääntymässä. Sitäkin he jo mainostivat todisteena vallallaan olevasta ryöstelystä 🤦‍♂️
 
Venäläiset tietenkin väittävät Kurskin hyökkäykseen osallistuvan ulkomaalaisia taistelijoita. Tsetseenikenraali Alaudinovin mukaan alueella on paljon ranskalaisia ja puolalaisia.

Alaudinov reported on French and Polish mercenaries in the Kursk direction​

MOSCOW, August 9. /TASS/. A great many French and Polish mercenaries are being spotted in the Kursk direction. This was stated by Deputy Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, commander of the special forces "Akhmat" Major General Apty Alaudinov, who is in the Kursk direction.

"Right now [pulled] from all directions, we are recording that there are a lot of French, a lot of Poles, that is, a lot of foreigners [in the Kursk direction]," he said in a comment for military correspondent Semyon Pegov, published on his Telegram channel.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21571361
 
Kursk ja Belgorod ovat lähes yhtä kaukana tuolta. Onhan tuossa sekin optio, että tässä vasta tehdään suojapuskuria sivustaan ja sitten lähetäänkin ryssän puolella rajaa kohti Belgorodia, mistä olisi se ilo, että paine Harkovan suunnalla varmaan hellittäisi hyvin äkkiä. Mehevä tilanne kun moni suunta auki niin jos ryssä saa johonkin tuketta niin mennään toiseen suuntaan.
 
Telenkon pitkä twiitti. Tiivistelmä: ryssällä menee päin vittua
Kannattaa lukaista

The Russian Army railway logistics are now in worse shape than when Wagner's revolt over ran Rostov on Don's railway marshaling yard.

Per @Schizointel

>>Ukraine now has physical access and control over the
>>Lgov-Belgorod line
>>Lgov-Vorozbha line

Summer 1940 redux🧵
1/


The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.
And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.
Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.
2/

Image
Image

This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.

Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.
3/

reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
Image

The stability of the Russian power grid is going to be affected with that much baseline nuclear power going off line.
Given 70% of Russian railway engines are electrically powered. This is a huge honking deal...
...a loss of RuAF strategic mobility kind of deal.

4/ Image

And the situation is it is getting worse as Russian civilians are bugging out en mass as refugees from Kursk Oblast.
RuAF doesn't have many fuel tanker trucks because the Russian Army always projects power from railheads.
5/

This is why there was the 40 mile convoy to Kyiv that ran out of fuel in Feb 2022.
Like Texas evacuating Houston in 2005 with Hurricane Rita, Russian civilians are creating a fuel desert where the RuAF needs to go.
6/

npr.org/sections/thetw…
Image

Given the number of confirmed AFU brigades involved in the Kursk operation, and the complete lack of a Russian strategic ground forces reserve anywhere.
It is looking far more like @secretsqrl123 idea strategic envelopment of Belgorod than mine of a strategic raid.
7/

Image

The much reported AFU woes in the Donbas were the result of mostly 2nd line units being put into the front lines behind a "Ghost Army" strategic deception while the elite units were being quietly prepared for the Kursk/Belgorod axis envelopment.
8/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Army
A Ukrainian drone swarm of OWA Drone/propeller cruise missiles have destroyed the VKS munitions stocks at Lipetsk airfield.
This takes the VKS off the table as a strong operational reserve on the Kursk/Belgorod axis.
9/


Image


Meanwhile, AFU ground forces are making amphibious raid demonstrations at the Kinburn Spit to try and freeze RuAF ground units in Kherson from redeployment.
10/


Image

RuAF desperation on the Kursk/Belgorod axis is such they are sending the following:
- MT-LB w/a 9K55 Grad-1 multiple rocket launcher
- MT-LB w/a twin 2M-3 25 mm naval gun,
- MT-LB w/a ZU-23-2 gun, & an
- MT-LB w/a MT-12 Rapira 100 mm AT-gun.
11/

mil.in.ua/en/news/mt-lb-…

1723223902518.webp

This MT-LB "Franken-Grad" just screams of a deep attrition of RuAF trucks available to mount 122mm rocket launchers on them.
An AFU thrust into Belgorod would allow it a pivot to the East to envelop the RuAF incursion into Kharkiv.
12/

The Kursk incursion forces the RuAF to spread their inadequate local reserves and covers the Western flank of an AFU thrust into Belgorod.
Pocketing 100K RuAF troops at Belgorod, with 14 brigades behind RuAF's strategic northern right flank, with no strategic reserve
13/

...looks like N. France in the summer of 1940.
I'm not saying Belgorod will be successfully enveloped by AFU, or that Russia will fall 6 weeks afterwards if it is.

I will say General Guderian is smiling.

14/14 End Image
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Telenkon pitkä twiitti. Tiivistelmä: ryssällä menee päin vittua
Kannattaa lukaista

The Russian Army railway logistics are now in worse shape than when Wagner's revolt over ran Rostov on Don's railway marshaling yard.

Per @Schizointel

>>Ukraine now has physical access and control over the
>>Lgov-Belgorod line
>>Lgov-Vorozbha line

Summer 1940 redux🧵
1/


The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.

And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.

Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.

2/
Image
Image

This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.

Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.

3/
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
Image

The stability of the Russian power grid is going to be affected with that much baseline nuclear power going off line.

Given 70% of Russian railway engines are electrically powered. This is a huge honking deal...

...a loss of RuAF strategic mobility kind of deal.

4/ Image
And the situation is it is getting worse as Russian civilians are bugging out en mass as refugees from Kursk Oblast.

RuAF doesn't have many fuel tanker trucks because the Russian Army always projects power from railheads.

5/
This is why there was the 40 mile convoy to Kyiv that ran out of fuel in Feb 2022.

Like Texas evacuating Houston in 2005 with Hurricane Rita, Russian civilians are creating a fuel desert where the RuAF needs to go.

6/
npr.org/sections/thetw…
Image



Given the number of confirmed AFU brigades involved in the Kursk operation, and the complete lack of a Russian strategic ground forces reserve anywhere.

It is looking far more like @secretsqrl123 idea strategic envelopment of Belgorod than mine of a strategic raid.

7/

Image

The much reported AFU woes in the Donbas were the result of mostly 2nd line units being put into the front lines behind a "Ghost Army" strategic deception while the elite units were being quietly prepared for the Kursk/Belgorod axis envelopment.

8/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Army

Ghost Army - Wikipedia

A Ukrainian drone swarm of OWA Drone/propeller cruise missiles have destroyed the VKS munitions stocks at Lipetsk airfield.

This takes the VKS off the table as a strong operational reserve on the Kursk/Belgorod axis.



9/

Image


Image

Meanwhile, AFU ground forces are making amphibious raid demonstrations at the Kinburn Spit to try and freeze RuAF ground units in Kherson from redeployment.

10/

Image

RuAF desperation on the Kursk/Belgorod axis is such they are sending the following:

- MT-LB w/a 9K55 Grad-1 multiple rocket launcher
- MT-LB w/a twin 2M-3 25 mm naval gun,
- MT-LB w/a ZU-23-2 gun, & an
- MT-LB w/a MT-12 Rapira 100 mm AT-gun.
11/
mil.in.ua/en/news/mt-lb-…


This MT-LB "Franken-Grad" just screams of a deep attrition of RuAF trucks available to mount 122mm rocket launchers on them.

An AFU thrust into Belgorod would allow it a pivot to the East to envelop the RuAF incursion into Kharkiv.

12/<i></i>

The Kursk incursion forces the RuAF to spread their inadequate local reserves and covers the Western flank of an AFU thrust into Belgorod.

Pocketing 100K RuAF troops at Belgorod, with 14 brigades behind RuAF's strategic northern right flank, with no strategic reserve
13/<i></i>

...looks like N. France in the summer of 1940.

I'm not saying Belgorod will be successfully enveloped by AFU, or that Russia will fall 6 weeks afterwards if it is.

I will say General Guderian is smiling.

14/14 End Image
Jossain näin juuri uutisen, että Kurskin NPP on katkaistu sähköverkosta.

Edit.


https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1821926755281576132
1723223452765.webp
Edit2.

Voi johtua tästäkin.

1723223614416.webpEi taas aukea nämä twitter-linkit perskele.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Jossain näin juuri uutisen, että Kurskin NPP on katkaistu sähköverkosta.
Onko mitään hajua, kuinka isoa osaa tuo vastaa venäjän koko sähköntuotannosta? Ja eikä se Rostovin voimala ole myös pois verkosta?
 
Montako päivää menee, että voimme lukea Iltapaskasta seuraavat otsikot?
"John Helin: Ukrainan hyökkäys voi osoittautua tuhnuksi" ja
"Ilmari Käihkö: Ukrainan hyökkäys aiheuttaa turhaa kärsimystä venäläisille"
 
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