Wilful blindness lies at the heart of Russia’s problems. Mr Putin’s political blunder was to see Ukrainians as waiting to be liberated by Russian soldiers. Mr Putin’s belief that the US, the EU and the west’s Pacific allies were too divided to be capable of collective action was misguided. Not only have these nations managed to come together, but they are
supplying arms to Ukraine in a manner which suggests they want Moscow defeated. Mr Putin might have wished for a quick military operation capped off by a lightning decapitation of the Ukrainian government. Instead, he faces a grinding war of occupation in the largest all-European country.
Unlike in Chechnya and Syria, where Mr Putin could rely on local proxies to run a dirty war,
war crimes in Ukraine will diminish Russia’s stature in the world. Moscow’s military aggression threatens its foreign policy. Mr Putin is trying to
veto the Iranian nuclear deal unless he gets guarantees that Russia won’t be subject to sanctions if it convinces Tehran to sign up to the pact. Russia remains a vital player in the commodity markets. The “black earth” breadbasket of the Eurasian steppe sees Russia and Ukraine supply a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. Yet Mr Putin’s war threatens
regimes – including Russia’s allies – in the Middle East who are watching wheat prices approaching levels not seen since the Arab spring.
Russia’s invasion could
disrupt energy markets on a scale not seen since the 1970s. Cutting off oil and gas from Russia would be a self-inflicted embargo. But it would also hit Mr Putin’s ability to pay for his war. With the spectre of runaway inflation haunting the west, Washington has begun to woo oil-rich pariahs such as
Venezuela, a Russian ally. Peter Beaumont, a Guardian war reporter,
wrote that where “states stand on the spectrum from fragility to resilience, an issue that takes in everything from social cohesion in conflict to the ability to sustain a protracted war effort” must be understood in conflicts in determining which side can last the course. Mr Putin is fighting the wrong war in Ukraine. Instead of finding a way of living with his neighbours, he has set himself on subduing Ukraine – and risking the ruination of Russia.
www.janes.com
pois, mutta ihmettelen tuota määrä mikä on kertynyt joka paikkaan, helvetin korruptio. Harkittu juttu ja Venäjä joutuu siirtämään nyt joukkojaan varmuudeksi takaisin kauas itään
www.hs.fi
