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The ninth anniversary of the “return to the native harbor” may be the last for Crimea within the Russian Federation
Despite the statements of the head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksenov and President Putin accused of war crimes, the peninsula is poorly protected and it will be almost impossible to keep it in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Since the fall, the RF Armed Forces have zealously undertaken to strengthen the Crimea and the Isthmus from a possible invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The positions of the Russian troops were located to the north of the peninsula, later defense lines were added to them in the area of Armyansk and Ishun. According to Russian officers, trenches, lines of gouges, anti-tank barriers and ditches cut through the isthmus. Concrete boxes of fortified firing points grew along the roads. But the peninsula's defense scheme has several weaknesses that negate its potential effectiveness.
Fortifications are poorly connected with each other and are not a single system of defensive structures.
The quality of concrete and other materials is so low that bunkers can be seriously damaged by fire from heavy machine guns or 120mm mortars, that is, with the active use of artillery and missiles by the Ukrainian army, Russian firing points will turn into a shooting range for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Crimea is poorly covered from the air. Since January, all available air defense systems have been concentrated there, often exposing other sectors of the front and the nearest rear, but this, according to the military stationed in Crimea, is not enough, because the personnel are badly trained, and the air defense systems are unsuccessfully placed. “They often cover not military, but administrative facilities, besides, we have a lot of air defense at parades and in words in Moscow. In fact, in the ending here on the spot, there are four to five dozen installations of various types scattered throughout the peninsula. In the event of serious raids, there will be nothing to repel them,” says a Russian officer stationed in Crimea.
The Ukrainian Air Force not only survived, but also increased in size since the beginning of the war. In the event of an attack on Crimea, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will use not only attack aircraft, but also attack helicopters, and before that, sabotage groups, drones and artillerymen will work with Russian air defense systems and crews.
And here we move on to the main point that devalues the entire fortification activity of the RF Armed Forces on the peninsula. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupy settlements to the north and northwest of the isthmus, for example, Skadovsk and others, then the entire peninsula will be in the zone of fire damage by HIMARS and other long-range artillery systems. Considering that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have no problems with adjusting the fire (due to the large number of supporters in the Crimea and the DRG), the Russian troops from Armyansk to Yalta will be sitting ducks.
“Our strategists are preparing for a repeat of 41-42 years. But the Ukrainian partners are unlikely to trample on us with tank columns. They will kick them out of Genichesk and Skadovsk, throw them back to Armyansk or Ishun, cut off the Crimean bridge, and then they will methodically knock out air defense, equipment, warehouses, people and ships with which they will try to supply the group from the mainland. A month or two and we will be left without Crimea and without a fleet, ”says a Russian officer of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
@Volyamedia