Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Mitään väliähän tuolla ei ole että menettikö Ukraina pari ajoneuvoa Belgorodissa vai ei. Sodassa niitä menee. Minusta näyttää että se operaatio täytti Ukrainan tavoitteet täysin. Tarkkaan mietitty homma millä on vaikutusta pienellä joukkomäärällä. Plus pääsivät vittuilemaan
hyvis
Eversti
Taitaa prigo säästää palkkakustannuksissa aika lailla noilla KIA -määrillä. Jos tuon palkka-armeijan perusroikale tienaa vaikka 1500 - 2500 EUR kuussa (voi olla yläkanttiin) tulee tuosta jo aivan käsittämätön säästö, kaatuneille kun ei tartte liikaa maksella. Varusteet, aseet ja ajoneuvot tietysti maksaa maltaita ja sitä kamaa kuluu. Näyttäisi siltä, että wagnerin rahoituksen on pikku pakko tulla jostain muualta, kuin prigon hodaribusineksista.
No nyt on mukavasti pituutta. Katsaus mitä Venäjällä on saanu partisaanit aikaan 10.5-23.5.2023
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Katselin flightradaria iltapäivästä, ja näytti siltä että kartalla oli jonkinlainen alue miltä useampi kaupallinenkaan kone ei lähettänyt validia paikkatietoa, vaan reitti näkyi tuollaisena katkoviivana. Olisiko ollut tuo ryssän häiriölaiva Ivan Hurs juuri noilla kohdilla menossa.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Antares
Respected Leader
Mark Krutovin kartta, johon merkitty Belgorodin alueelle tehdyn iskun paikkoja:
Using @GeoConfirmed map and adding some more geolocations to it I made this Google map with the key videos and photos from the Belgorod RDK raid, which appeared online during the whole saga.
Suora linkki karttaan:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1kNj35jAbbIsW2OT07xJQMRw0azdDfJg&ll=0,0&z=12
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Lainaan alle Krutovin viittaaman artikkelin käännöksen (hän on yksi artikkelin kirjoittajista), tässä tehdään yhteenvetoa Belgorodin alueelle tehdyn iskun tapahtumista ja aikajanasta:
Using @GeoConfirmed map and adding some more geolocations to it I made this Google map with the key videos and photos from the Belgorod RDK raid, which appeared online during the whole saga.
Suora linkki karttaan:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1kNj35jAbbIsW2OT07xJQMRw0azdDfJg&ll=0,0&z=12
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Lainaan alle Krutovin viittaaman artikkelin käännöksen (hän on yksi artikkelin kirjoittajista), tässä tehdään yhteenvetoa Belgorodin alueelle tehdyn iskun tapahtumista ja aikajanasta:
https://www.svoboda.org/a/reyd-skvozj-tuman-chego-dobilisj-boytsy-rdk-pod-belgorodom/32426187.html
Member of the RDK Ilya Bogdanov, a former employee of the Russian FSB, at the Grayvoron checkpoint
On the morning of May 22, an armed group of people entered the territory of the Belgorod region from Ukraine. The clashes in the Grayvoronsky district lasted more than a day, the local residents were partially evacuated. Responsibility for the raid was claimed by representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), a formation fighting on the side of Ukraine and allegedly composed of Russian citizens. Radio Liberty talks about how far deep into Russia the RDK fighters actually managed to go, what equipment they lost, what they took as a trophy, and whether the neighboring Russian nuclear weapons storage facility was in danger.
According to the Russian law enforcement agencies, the attack on the Belgorod region began at 6 am Moscow time with shelling of the Gaivoron border checkpoint and its environs. Approximately five hours later, a tank drove into the territory of the checkpoint from Ukraine (RBC sources in the regional department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs claim that the “tank unit” returned to Ukraine after shelling the border checkpoint), and shortly after that, a group of armed people with at least 8 armored vehicles and several cars.
The shelling of the Grayvoron checkpoint, which preceded the penetration of the RDK group
The following day, Russian and Ukrainian social networks were filled with conflicting information about the course of the raid and the actions of the Russian military. In particular, it was alleged that a group of RDK fighters reached at least the village of Gora-Podol, 6 kilometers from the border on the outskirts of the city of Grayvoron. Judging by the geolocation of all the videos that have appeared in recent days, in reality, the RDK fighters visited only the border village of Kozinka and on the outskirts of the neighboring village of Glotovo, thus barely reaching the so-called " notch line", which in this area in any case does not pass through the villages through which the RDK fighters moved. An anonymous member of the RDC, who took part in the raid, told Novaya Gazeta. Europe that at least part of the group managed to reach the outskirts of the city of Grayvoron, and the capture and retention of this regional center was the main task of the raid. RS found no video evidence that the RFCs were in Graivoron or the village of Gora-Podil.
The raid was accompanied by an information attack, in particular, local residents received fake phone calls demanding to urgently evacuate. The authorities of the Belgorod region also announced the dissemination of false information through specially created telegram channels that masqueraded as Russian ones. Radio Liberty indeed discovered that one of these channels, Grayvoron LIVE, was created on February 22, 2022, a few days before the full-scale Russian invasion, began to publish official news of the Grayvoronsky district shortly before the raid, and on the day of the penetration of the RDK fighters, it abruptly changed its tone to pro-Ukrainian (now this and other similar channels have been removed).
The exact number of participants in the raid is unknown, but judging by the video and the number of armored vehicles, it amounted to several dozen people. The interlocutor of "Novaya Gazeta. Europe" claims that the group included about 150 people. Several publications, including the Agency, identified six participants in the raid, whose faces were caught on video. All of them are Russians, almost all of them are open adherents of neo-Nazi ideology.
Oleksandr Sachkov (right), a Russian neo-Nazi, a fan of Hitler, was arrested in 2019 in Ukraine for creating a neo-Nazi organization, but later released on bail
According to the sources of Novaya Gazeta. Europe, significant Russian forces were sent to the Belgorod region to fight the RFC: at least 3,200 military personnel and 20 pieces of equipment, as well as employees of the FSB, Alpha and Vympel detachments. According to Russian Telegram channels, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin was appointed to command the operation, after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he was dismissed from several positions in the Russian Defense Ministry. Lapin actually appeared in several photos and videos from the scene in the Grayvoron district.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on the "defeat of Ukrainian nationalist formations" that entered the territory of the Belgorod region. According to the ministry, the remaining members of the group were "thrown back" to the territory of Ukraine. A few hours later, the regime of the counter-terrorist operation, introduced the previous evening, was canceled in the region . After the attack on the Belgorod region, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under six articles of the Criminal Code.
Cars in the Belgorod region damaged during the raid
As a result of shelling in the Belgorod region, one local resident was killed and 12 were injured, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said . In addition, according to Russian authorities, one elderly woman died during the evacuation. The Kommersant publication reported the death of two Russian servicemen and the wounding of four more. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the death of more than 70 people from the RDK group that penetrated the territory of the Belgorod region.
A senior Ukrainian official confirmed the formation's losses to The New York Times, but he called them minor and said they did not affect the unit's combat capability. The RDC, in turn, stated that they suffered no losses in killed or in equipment, but reported two wounded during the raid. The interlocutor of "New Europe", who participated in the raid, said that there were "lightly wounded" in the unit, but refused to comment on the losses of the RDK. At the same time, he announced "significant losses" by "two hundred" and "three hundred" by the Russian troops.
In addition to the RDK, the Freedom of Russia legion also claimed responsibility for the raid, however, as the Conflict Intelligence Team project notes , the investigators could not find any evidence of their participation in the breakthrough. “We still have no evidence of its existence as a full-fledged combat unit,” the project summary says. The RDK stated in its official channel that "any political initiatives coming from third-party organizations are not related to the official position of the corps," adding that he meant, among other things, the statements of Ilya Ponomarev, who calls himself the political leader of the "Freedom of Russia" legion .
Based on the video recordings that have become publicly available and their geolocation (including by the volunteers of the Geoconfirmed project), Radio Liberty compiled an interactive map of the main events of the RDK raid in the Belgorod Region, and also calculated how much military equipment the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Russian armed forces could actually lose.
RDK losses in technology
The exact amount of military equipment that was used for the raid in the Belgorod region cannot be calculated based on open data. It can be confidently asserted that the column included at least 8 units of armored vehicles. The interlocutor of "New-Europe" speaks of "a dozen cars and armored personnel carriers."
Several videos of a volunteer detachment column filmed on the territory of Ukraine show 8-10 combat vehicles (not counting light vehicles). On the video , filmed on the highway (judging by the license plates of a civilian car passing by - on the Ukrainian side of the border), four International M1224 MaxxPro armored personnel carriers, one M1151 HMMWV armored vehicle, and presumably another HMWWV armored vehicle (models M1151 or M1152) are clearly distinguishable. In addition, at least two more combat vehicles are visible at the end of the column, it is impossible to distinguish their type due to the low quality of the video. One of the four MaxxPros was also caught on video , apparently filmed at the same location. Another videoof the RDK convoy preparing for the raid was filmed from a drone near the border checkpoint "Grayvoron" on the Ukrainian side of the border. 8 pieces of equipment are distinguishable on it, it is impossible to identify their type due to the quality of the video. In addition, it is not known whether the entire column was in the frame.
The T-72 tank also participated in the beginning of the attack on the Grayvoron checkpoint, it can be seen in one of the first videos of the breakthrough at the checkpoint, filmed from a drone, as well as in several videos that circulated in Ukrainian telegram channels in the first hours after the start of the raid . This tank does not appear on further videos of either the Russian side or the RDK, it is possible that after the capture of the checkpoint, it returned to the territory of Ukraine (this is also claimed by the Russian law enforcement agencies).
In the video taken from a drone near the checkpoint, one can distinguish a Ukrainian KrAZ Cobra armored vehicle, a MaxxPro armored personnel carrier and an HMMWW M1151 armored vehicle. Russian Telegram channels also circulated information about the participation of an American Cougar armored car in the raid, but Radio Liberty was unable to find it on any videos from the Grayvoron region.
On the evening of May 22, the Russian pro-military telegram channel published two pictures of the MaxxPro armored car captured by Russian troops. It can be identified by the arrow (the rune "Tivaz" popular with nationalists) on the front left door, the same car can be seen on the video of the RDK column before entering the territory of Russia. General Lapin was photographed at the same armored personnel carrier, which confirms the fact that the vehicle was captured. Later, Russian sources released pictures of another MaxxPro photographed in a hangar. It is alleged that he was also left by the RDK in the Belgorod region, but Radio Liberty did not find convincing evidence of this. The white cross on the front door of the car is similar to the MaxxPro marking taken from the window of the house in Glotov, but we cannot unequivocally state that this is the exact car.
On the afternoon of May 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense in its daily report showed a video with several strikes that the Russian military inflicted in the area of the Grayvoron checkpoint. As established by independent investigators, three of these strikes were inflicted on Ukrainian territory near the checkpoint, two hit the checkpoint itself. In one of the fragments, it can be seen that four units of vehicles standing near the wall of the checkpoint building were hit, one of these vehicles is apparently an M1152 HMMWV, another one is a KrAZ Kobra. Both cars are near the epicenter of the impact.
Armored vehicle M1151 HMMWV, probably damaged during a Russian strike in the area of the Grayvoron checkpoint
Later on May 23, the Zvezda TV channel of the Russian Defense Ministry published a video of allegedly lost RDKs during the raid of vehicles. Two M1151 HMMWV armored vehicles, one M1152 HMMWV vehicle, a Polish Dzik-2 armored personnel carrier and a pickup truck appear in the video. Some experts questionedin the authenticity of this video, in particular, noting the too clean tires of two HMMWV vehicles, the nature of the damage, the location of the vehicles, which does not correspond to the position of the vehicles in the video of the impact on the checkpoint. It is possible that the HMMWV vehicles for this video were brought from other places, perhaps they were captured not during this raid, but at another time and in other regions. At the same time, Russian or Ukrainian sources did not previously report the destruction or capture of Dzik-2 armored cars or MaxxPro armored cars. A participant in the raid, who spoke with New Europe, said that two HMMWVs did indeed fall into the trenches near the checkpoint and were left where they were later shown on the video of the Zvezda TV channel.
On May 23, the pro-military publication "Ridovka" published a video of a damaged KrAZ "Cobra" vehicle with a burnt body lying in front of it. There is no evidence that this particular vehicle was used by the RDK, although a similar "Cobra" participated in the raid and, apparently, came under direct attack at the checkpoint.
After the end of the raid, the official channel of the RDK published two videos with equipment, as can be understood from the content of the posts, which was preserved after the group left for the territory of Ukraine. The first video , filmed from a moving car, shows a captured Russian armored personnel carrier and a pickup truck. According to the characteristic details of the interior, it can be clearly established that the video was shot from the MaxxPro armored personnel carrier. The second video shows two MaxxPros and the same Russian APC. Based on the fact that at the beginning of the raid there were at least four MaxxPros in the RDK convoy, these videos do not refute the loss of two American armored personnel carriers of this type. In addition, the HMWWV and Dzik-2 participating in the raid, which, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, were lost by the group during the operation, have not yet been shown by the RDK.
Thus, Radio Liberty considers the loss of one MaxxPro by the RDK group to be convincingly confirmed, assesses as very likely the losses of Dzik-2, KrAZ "Cobra" M1152 HMMWV (hit at the checkpoint) and another MaxxPro, and two M1151 armored vehicles may also be among the losses HMMWV. These findings are consistent with those of the independent Oryx project.
Russian losses in technology
On the afternoon of May 22, RDK fighters were reliably able to take the Russian armored personnel carrier 82A as a trophy. This car is featured in several videos, including videos made after the group returned to Ukraine. The armored personnel carrier probably needs to be repaired, in any case, the fee for this repair was announced by the RDK in the official telegram channel, and in one of the videos, the RDK fighter complains that he "has no traction."
Post-raid videos from the Belgorod region show two burnt Russian Ural-4320 vehicles and a Soviet-style T-12 anti-tank gun. Most likely, they were destroyed during the RDK raid.
Some observers noted that Belgorod-22 (also known as Object 1150 or military unit 25624) is located about 16 kilometers from the Grayvoron checkpoint near the Russian village of Antonovka. Information was circulating in Russian and Ukrainian social media accounts that last year nuclear weapons were delivered to this storage facility for use in the war against Ukraine, others wrote that after the start of the RDK raid, a hasty evacuation of charges was carried out, still others that the purpose of the raid was to capture a nuclear weapons.
Satellite images of "Object 1150" taken on April 10, May 2, 6 and 20:
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Senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Studies in Geneva, head of the Russian Nuclear Forces project Pavel Podvig told Radio Liberty that the storage facility in the Belgorod Region belongs to the so-called "Object C": it is one of 12 central storage facilities for nuclear weapons in the case of bringing nuclear forces to a high degree of readiness, they are delivered to other storage facilities close to military units that have the means to use nuclear weapons - in the case of Belgorod-22, this is the Morozovsk air base, naval units in Novorossiysk and, possibly, a missile unit in the Kursk region, armed complexes "Iskander".
According to Podvig, Belgorod-22 bunkers can contain and service at least several dozen tactical nuclear weapons, while whether they are there now and whether they were there before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is unknown. Podvig noted that some publications of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation indicate that military unit 25624, to which the repository belongs, is active, but this does not necessarily mean that the repository is not empty.
The interlocutor of Radio Liberty believes that if, after the beginning of the invasion, nuclear charges were delivered to Belgorod-22 or, on the contrary, removed, this would become known. "I think that we can judge such activity from the information that one way or another is reported by foreign observers, in particular the United States. I am sure that these storage facilities are under surveillance. And I think that if some activity were taking place, then we would know about it, at least by the expression of concern from Western countries. There is no such expression, therefore, I think it can be said with great confidence that no movements took place there, "Podvig said.
Iskander missile launchers at a military parade in St. Petersburg, May 9, 2023
The expert noted that the 12th GUMO of the Russian Federation pays increased attention to ensuring the safety of nuclear storage facilities, and is sure that it would be impossible to capture it by a relatively small sabotage group. "The storage facilities themselves are equipped with all defense systems, not to mention the fact that the bunkers in which warheads are stored or can be stored are fortified structures that are extremely difficult to destroy even with a direct hit. Therefore, I think that such a threat to capture such objects is really actually does not exist,” says Pavel Podvig.
The telegram channel OCHK-VGPU published on May 22, without reference to sources, a list of Russian military personnel and civilians wounded at that time during the raid. Among the wounded soldiers, one is listed as a member of military unit 25594. It also belongs to the Russian nuclear arsenal, but is assigned to another central storage facility in the Vologda region. Even if in reality this soldier served in the Belgorod region and was wounded, this may rather indicate that the soldiers of the nearest units were sent to liquidate the border breach than to attack the storage facilities. The RDK fighters did not reach him for more than 10 kilometers.
The Russian authorities called the group that carried out the raid in the Belgorod region a "sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." The Kremlin believes that the purpose of the attack is an attempt to "divert attention from the situation in the Bakhmut direction."
Mikhail Pololyak
Ukraine denies direct participation in the raid. Mikhail Podolyak , an adviser to the office of the President of Ukraine , said that Kiev "follows" the events with interest, but does not have a "direct relation" to them. Andriy Yusov , a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine , commenting on the raid, called its participants "opposition-minded citizens of Russia who are ready for an armed struggle against Putin's criminal regime."
At the same time, Andrey Chernyak , a representative of the GUR, in a commentary for the Financial Times, acknowledged "cooperation" with the formations that entered the territory of the Belgorod region. “Of course, we communicate with them. Of course, we share some information. And, one might say, we even cooperate,” said Chernyak. The New York Times, citing an anonymous senior official, writes that the Ukrainian military acted "as support" in case they had to defend the border from the Russian military. Chernyak also denied the transfer of American equipment received by Ukraine to the RDK.
RDK leader Denis Nikitin admitted in a conversation with the Financial Times that the group used American military equipment during the raid: at least two M1224 MaxxPro armored personnel carriers and several Humvees (probably referring to the HMMWVs caught on video). However, he refused to reveal how the formation obtained this technique. The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to comment on the invasion of Belgorod and the use of American equipment.
Patrick Ryder
The US is "skeptical" about reports that American military hardware was used in the raid, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said . He noted that the United States does not approve of strikes on Russian territory, including with the use of American weapons. At the same time, Miller added that "it is up to Ukraine to decide how to wage this war." Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that the United States did not give permission for Ukraine to transfer American equipment to third parties and did not receive such a request from Kiev.
Raid through the fog. What did the fighters of the RDK near Belgorod achieve
1 hour(s) ago
Member of the RDK Ilya Bogdanov, a former employee of the Russian FSB, at the Grayvoron checkpoint
On the morning of May 22, an armed group of people entered the territory of the Belgorod region from Ukraine. The clashes in the Grayvoronsky district lasted more than a day, the local residents were partially evacuated. Responsibility for the raid was claimed by representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), a formation fighting on the side of Ukraine and allegedly composed of Russian citizens. Radio Liberty talks about how far deep into Russia the RDK fighters actually managed to go, what equipment they lost, what they took as a trophy, and whether the neighboring Russian nuclear weapons storage facility was in danger.
Raid in the Fog of War
According to the Russian law enforcement agencies, the attack on the Belgorod region began at 6 am Moscow time with shelling of the Gaivoron border checkpoint and its environs. Approximately five hours later, a tank drove into the territory of the checkpoint from Ukraine (RBC sources in the regional department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs claim that the “tank unit” returned to Ukraine after shelling the border checkpoint), and shortly after that, a group of armed people with at least 8 armored vehicles and several cars.
The shelling of the Grayvoron checkpoint, which preceded the penetration of the RDK group
The following day, Russian and Ukrainian social networks were filled with conflicting information about the course of the raid and the actions of the Russian military. In particular, it was alleged that a group of RDK fighters reached at least the village of Gora-Podol, 6 kilometers from the border on the outskirts of the city of Grayvoron. Judging by the geolocation of all the videos that have appeared in recent days, in reality, the RDK fighters visited only the border village of Kozinka and on the outskirts of the neighboring village of Glotovo, thus barely reaching the so-called " notch line", which in this area in any case does not pass through the villages through which the RDK fighters moved. An anonymous member of the RDC, who took part in the raid, told Novaya Gazeta. Europe that at least part of the group managed to reach the outskirts of the city of Grayvoron, and the capture and retention of this regional center was the main task of the raid. RS found no video evidence that the RFCs were in Graivoron or the village of Gora-Podil.
The raid was accompanied by an information attack, in particular, local residents received fake phone calls demanding to urgently evacuate. The authorities of the Belgorod region also announced the dissemination of false information through specially created telegram channels that masqueraded as Russian ones. Radio Liberty indeed discovered that one of these channels, Grayvoron LIVE, was created on February 22, 2022, a few days before the full-scale Russian invasion, began to publish official news of the Grayvoronsky district shortly before the raid, and on the day of the penetration of the RDK fighters, it abruptly changed its tone to pro-Ukrainian (now this and other similar channels have been removed).
The exact number of participants in the raid is unknown, but judging by the video and the number of armored vehicles, it amounted to several dozen people. The interlocutor of "Novaya Gazeta. Europe" claims that the group included about 150 people. Several publications, including the Agency, identified six participants in the raid, whose faces were caught on video. All of them are Russians, almost all of them are open adherents of neo-Nazi ideology.
Oleksandr Sachkov (right), a Russian neo-Nazi, a fan of Hitler, was arrested in 2019 in Ukraine for creating a neo-Nazi organization, but later released on bail
According to the sources of Novaya Gazeta. Europe, significant Russian forces were sent to the Belgorod region to fight the RFC: at least 3,200 military personnel and 20 pieces of equipment, as well as employees of the FSB, Alpha and Vympel detachments. According to Russian Telegram channels, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin was appointed to command the operation, after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he was dismissed from several positions in the Russian Defense Ministry. Lapin actually appeared in several photos and videos from the scene in the Grayvoron district.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on the "defeat of Ukrainian nationalist formations" that entered the territory of the Belgorod region. According to the ministry, the remaining members of the group were "thrown back" to the territory of Ukraine. A few hours later, the regime of the counter-terrorist operation, introduced the previous evening, was canceled in the region . After the attack on the Belgorod region, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under six articles of the Criminal Code.
Cars in the Belgorod region damaged during the raid
As a result of shelling in the Belgorod region, one local resident was killed and 12 were injured, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said . In addition, according to Russian authorities, one elderly woman died during the evacuation. The Kommersant publication reported the death of two Russian servicemen and the wounding of four more. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the death of more than 70 people from the RDK group that penetrated the territory of the Belgorod region.
A senior Ukrainian official confirmed the formation's losses to The New York Times, but he called them minor and said they did not affect the unit's combat capability. The RDC, in turn, stated that they suffered no losses in killed or in equipment, but reported two wounded during the raid. The interlocutor of "New Europe", who participated in the raid, said that there were "lightly wounded" in the unit, but refused to comment on the losses of the RDK. At the same time, he announced "significant losses" by "two hundred" and "three hundred" by the Russian troops.
In addition to the RDK, the Freedom of Russia legion also claimed responsibility for the raid, however, as the Conflict Intelligence Team project notes , the investigators could not find any evidence of their participation in the breakthrough. “We still have no evidence of its existence as a full-fledged combat unit,” the project summary says. The RDK stated in its official channel that "any political initiatives coming from third-party organizations are not related to the official position of the corps," adding that he meant, among other things, the statements of Ilya Ponomarev, who calls himself the political leader of the "Freedom of Russia" legion .
Raid map and vehicle losses on both sides
Based on the video recordings that have become publicly available and their geolocation (including by the volunteers of the Geoconfirmed project), Radio Liberty compiled an interactive map of the main events of the RDK raid in the Belgorod Region, and also calculated how much military equipment the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Russian armed forces could actually lose.
RDK losses in technology
The exact amount of military equipment that was used for the raid in the Belgorod region cannot be calculated based on open data. It can be confidently asserted that the column included at least 8 units of armored vehicles. The interlocutor of "New-Europe" speaks of "a dozen cars and armored personnel carriers."
Several videos of a volunteer detachment column filmed on the territory of Ukraine show 8-10 combat vehicles (not counting light vehicles). On the video , filmed on the highway (judging by the license plates of a civilian car passing by - on the Ukrainian side of the border), four International M1224 MaxxPro armored personnel carriers, one M1151 HMMWV armored vehicle, and presumably another HMWWV armored vehicle (models M1151 or M1152) are clearly distinguishable. In addition, at least two more combat vehicles are visible at the end of the column, it is impossible to distinguish their type due to the low quality of the video. One of the four MaxxPros was also caught on video , apparently filmed at the same location. Another videoof the RDK convoy preparing for the raid was filmed from a drone near the border checkpoint "Grayvoron" on the Ukrainian side of the border. 8 pieces of equipment are distinguishable on it, it is impossible to identify their type due to the quality of the video. In addition, it is not known whether the entire column was in the frame.
The T-72 tank also participated in the beginning of the attack on the Grayvoron checkpoint, it can be seen in one of the first videos of the breakthrough at the checkpoint, filmed from a drone, as well as in several videos that circulated in Ukrainian telegram channels in the first hours after the start of the raid . This tank does not appear on further videos of either the Russian side or the RDK, it is possible that after the capture of the checkpoint, it returned to the territory of Ukraine (this is also claimed by the Russian law enforcement agencies).
In the video taken from a drone near the checkpoint, one can distinguish a Ukrainian KrAZ Cobra armored vehicle, a MaxxPro armored personnel carrier and an HMMWW M1151 armored vehicle. Russian Telegram channels also circulated information about the participation of an American Cougar armored car in the raid, but Radio Liberty was unable to find it on any videos from the Grayvoron region.
On the evening of May 22, the Russian pro-military telegram channel published two pictures of the MaxxPro armored car captured by Russian troops. It can be identified by the arrow (the rune "Tivaz" popular with nationalists) on the front left door, the same car can be seen on the video of the RDK column before entering the territory of Russia. General Lapin was photographed at the same armored personnel carrier, which confirms the fact that the vehicle was captured. Later, Russian sources released pictures of another MaxxPro photographed in a hangar. It is alleged that he was also left by the RDK in the Belgorod region, but Radio Liberty did not find convincing evidence of this. The white cross on the front door of the car is similar to the MaxxPro marking taken from the window of the house in Glotov, but we cannot unequivocally state that this is the exact car.
On the afternoon of May 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense in its daily report showed a video with several strikes that the Russian military inflicted in the area of the Grayvoron checkpoint. As established by independent investigators, three of these strikes were inflicted on Ukrainian territory near the checkpoint, two hit the checkpoint itself. In one of the fragments, it can be seen that four units of vehicles standing near the wall of the checkpoint building were hit, one of these vehicles is apparently an M1152 HMMWV, another one is a KrAZ Kobra. Both cars are near the epicenter of the impact.
Armored vehicle M1151 HMMWV, probably damaged during a Russian strike in the area of the Grayvoron checkpoint
Later on May 23, the Zvezda TV channel of the Russian Defense Ministry published a video of allegedly lost RDKs during the raid of vehicles. Two M1151 HMMWV armored vehicles, one M1152 HMMWV vehicle, a Polish Dzik-2 armored personnel carrier and a pickup truck appear in the video. Some experts questionedin the authenticity of this video, in particular, noting the too clean tires of two HMMWV vehicles, the nature of the damage, the location of the vehicles, which does not correspond to the position of the vehicles in the video of the impact on the checkpoint. It is possible that the HMMWV vehicles for this video were brought from other places, perhaps they were captured not during this raid, but at another time and in other regions. At the same time, Russian or Ukrainian sources did not previously report the destruction or capture of Dzik-2 armored cars or MaxxPro armored cars. A participant in the raid, who spoke with New Europe, said that two HMMWVs did indeed fall into the trenches near the checkpoint and were left where they were later shown on the video of the Zvezda TV channel.
On May 23, the pro-military publication "Ridovka" published a video of a damaged KrAZ "Cobra" vehicle with a burnt body lying in front of it. There is no evidence that this particular vehicle was used by the RDK, although a similar "Cobra" participated in the raid and, apparently, came under direct attack at the checkpoint.
After the end of the raid, the official channel of the RDK published two videos with equipment, as can be understood from the content of the posts, which was preserved after the group left for the territory of Ukraine. The first video , filmed from a moving car, shows a captured Russian armored personnel carrier and a pickup truck. According to the characteristic details of the interior, it can be clearly established that the video was shot from the MaxxPro armored personnel carrier. The second video shows two MaxxPros and the same Russian APC. Based on the fact that at the beginning of the raid there were at least four MaxxPros in the RDK convoy, these videos do not refute the loss of two American armored personnel carriers of this type. In addition, the HMWWV and Dzik-2 participating in the raid, which, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, were lost by the group during the operation, have not yet been shown by the RDK.
Thus, Radio Liberty considers the loss of one MaxxPro by the RDK group to be convincingly confirmed, assesses as very likely the losses of Dzik-2, KrAZ "Cobra" M1152 HMMWV (hit at the checkpoint) and another MaxxPro, and two M1151 armored vehicles may also be among the losses HMMWV. These findings are consistent with those of the independent Oryx project.
Russian losses in technology
On the afternoon of May 22, RDK fighters were reliably able to take the Russian armored personnel carrier 82A as a trophy. This car is featured in several videos, including videos made after the group returned to Ukraine. The armored personnel carrier probably needs to be repaired, in any case, the fee for this repair was announced by the RDK in the official telegram channel, and in one of the videos, the RDK fighter complains that he "has no traction."
Post-raid videos from the Belgorod region show two burnt Russian Ural-4320 vehicles and a Soviet-style T-12 anti-tank gun. Most likely, they were destroyed during the RDK raid.
nuclear storage
Some observers noted that Belgorod-22 (also known as Object 1150 or military unit 25624) is located about 16 kilometers from the Grayvoron checkpoint near the Russian village of Antonovka. Information was circulating in Russian and Ukrainian social media accounts that last year nuclear weapons were delivered to this storage facility for use in the war against Ukraine, others wrote that after the start of the RDK raid, a hasty evacuation of charges was carried out, still others that the purpose of the raid was to capture a nuclear weapons.
Satellite images of "Object 1150" taken on April 10, May 2, 6 and 20:
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Russian nuclear weapons storage base on satellite imagery
Senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Studies in Geneva, head of the Russian Nuclear Forces project Pavel Podvig told Radio Liberty that the storage facility in the Belgorod Region belongs to the so-called "Object C": it is one of 12 central storage facilities for nuclear weapons in the case of bringing nuclear forces to a high degree of readiness, they are delivered to other storage facilities close to military units that have the means to use nuclear weapons - in the case of Belgorod-22, this is the Morozovsk air base, naval units in Novorossiysk and, possibly, a missile unit in the Kursk region, armed complexes "Iskander".
According to Podvig, Belgorod-22 bunkers can contain and service at least several dozen tactical nuclear weapons, while whether they are there now and whether they were there before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is unknown. Podvig noted that some publications of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation indicate that military unit 25624, to which the repository belongs, is active, but this does not necessarily mean that the repository is not empty.
The interlocutor of Radio Liberty believes that if, after the beginning of the invasion, nuclear charges were delivered to Belgorod-22 or, on the contrary, removed, this would become known. "I think that we can judge such activity from the information that one way or another is reported by foreign observers, in particular the United States. I am sure that these storage facilities are under surveillance. And I think that if some activity were taking place, then we would know about it, at least by the expression of concern from Western countries. There is no such expression, therefore, I think it can be said with great confidence that no movements took place there, "Podvig said.
Iskander missile launchers at a military parade in St. Petersburg, May 9, 2023
The expert noted that the 12th GUMO of the Russian Federation pays increased attention to ensuring the safety of nuclear storage facilities, and is sure that it would be impossible to capture it by a relatively small sabotage group. "The storage facilities themselves are equipped with all defense systems, not to mention the fact that the bunkers in which warheads are stored or can be stored are fortified structures that are extremely difficult to destroy even with a direct hit. Therefore, I think that such a threat to capture such objects is really actually does not exist,” says Pavel Podvig.
The telegram channel OCHK-VGPU published on May 22, without reference to sources, a list of Russian military personnel and civilians wounded at that time during the raid. Among the wounded soldiers, one is listed as a member of military unit 25594. It also belongs to the Russian nuclear arsenal, but is assigned to another central storage facility in the Vologda region. Even if in reality this soldier served in the Belgorod region and was wounded, this may rather indicate that the soldiers of the nearest units were sent to liquidate the border breach than to attack the storage facilities. The RDK fighters did not reach him for more than 10 kilometers.
Side reactions
The Russian authorities called the group that carried out the raid in the Belgorod region a "sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." The Kremlin believes that the purpose of the attack is an attempt to "divert attention from the situation in the Bakhmut direction."
Mikhail Pololyak
Ukraine denies direct participation in the raid. Mikhail Podolyak , an adviser to the office of the President of Ukraine , said that Kiev "follows" the events with interest, but does not have a "direct relation" to them. Andriy Yusov , a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine , commenting on the raid, called its participants "opposition-minded citizens of Russia who are ready for an armed struggle against Putin's criminal regime."
At the same time, Andrey Chernyak , a representative of the GUR, in a commentary for the Financial Times, acknowledged "cooperation" with the formations that entered the territory of the Belgorod region. “Of course, we communicate with them. Of course, we share some information. And, one might say, we even cooperate,” said Chernyak. The New York Times, citing an anonymous senior official, writes that the Ukrainian military acted "as support" in case they had to defend the border from the Russian military. Chernyak also denied the transfer of American equipment received by Ukraine to the RDK.
RDK leader Denis Nikitin admitted in a conversation with the Financial Times that the group used American military equipment during the raid: at least two M1224 MaxxPro armored personnel carriers and several Humvees (probably referring to the HMMWVs caught on video). However, he refused to reveal how the formation obtained this technique. The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to comment on the invasion of Belgorod and the use of American equipment.
Patrick Ryder
The US is "skeptical" about reports that American military hardware was used in the raid, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said . He noted that the United States does not approve of strikes on Russian territory, including with the use of American weapons. At the same time, Miller added that "it is up to Ukraine to decide how to wage this war." Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that the United States did not give permission for Ukraine to transfer American equipment to third parties and did not receive such a request from Kiev.
Sergei Dobrynin
Columnist for Radio Liberty, investigative journalistMark Krutov
Facebook krutovmark
-TripleX-
Respected Leader
Muun muassa tässä se kerrotaan, oli paljon muitakin joilla sama asia, jos tuo linkattu TG aukeaa niin sieltä varmaan pääsee vielä eteenpäin.
Antares
Respected Leader
An Ukrainian “Bureviy” MLRS on a Tatra (T815-7T3RC1) vehicle chassis. It is an advanced BM-27 Uragan. The 220mm rockets have a 65km range, 30km more than the standard Uragan missiles which it can fire, too. Warhead is 90-100kg heavy.
Source:
https://t.me/mysiagin/22331
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Kaapattu T-80BVM, ei tietoa missä tai milloin, mutta tämän mukaan voisi olla ennestään näkemätöntä materiaalia:
Source:
https://t.me/mysiagin/22331
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Kaapattu T-80BVM, ei tietoa missä tai milloin, mutta tämän mukaan voisi olla ennestään näkemätöntä materiaalia:
Viimeksi muokattu:
Kaksi laukausta per tykki 40 sekuntiin. Mikä ampumamuoto tuollainen on?
putkirassi
Kapteeni
Viisaita sanoja ja tässä sitä ollaan.,
toimistohuuhaa
Kersantti
Eskalaatio mainittu. Venäläisiä pelottaa. Naurattaa, miten totaalisesti asetelmat ovat kääntyneet ympäri. Minkäs pelon edessä sitä oltiin ihan paskat housussa vaikkapa euroopassa ihan hiljan?
Ja lännellä on vielä paukkuja kyllä eskaloida ihan kunnolla. Vastahan tässä jotain kylmän sodan reliikkihävittäjiä sinne vähän laitellaan. Ja muutama pitkälle lentävä puikko.
No siis joo, onhan sinne nyt muutakin mennyt, mutta vaaaaaltavasti hitechiä on pistämättä, puhumattakaan niiden käyttäjistä. Että joo, kyllä venäläiset ehkä perustellusti ovat tulleet siihen tulokseen, että eskalaatio ei olisi heidän kannaltaan kovin mukavaa.
Majakovskin yhteenveto vastahyökkäyksestä ynnä muusta. Hiukan pessimistinen sävy, arvelee että vastahyökkäys kuitenkin tarvitsisi kunnon hävittäjät tueksi.
https://threadreaderapp-com.transla...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fi&_x_tr_pto=wapp
https://threadreaderapp-com.transla...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fi&_x_tr_pto=wapp