Nämä tuoreimmat käänteet eivät ole ensimmäinen kerta kun Venäjän ja Azerbaijanin suhteissa on nähty rakoilua, vaan se on jatkumoa useamman vuoden trendille.
Aikavälillä 27.9.2020 - 10.11.2020 käytiin lyhyt sota Armenian ja Azerbaijanin välillä, jolloin Azerbaijan valtasi palasia Vuoristo-Karabachin (eng. Nagorno-Karabakh) alueesta. Kyseinen alue jäi Armenian hallintaan aikavälillä 1988–1994 käydyn sodan jälkeen - kenelle alue "oikeasti" kuuluu, se riippuu keneltä kysytään.
Ryssällä oli puolustussopimus Armenian kanssa, mutta eivät korvaansa loksauttaneet hädän hetkellä. Azerbaijan on tärkeä kauppakumppani ja on ostanut paljon ryssän aseita, joten asia oli tätä myöten selvä.
Vuonna 2023 Azerbaijan hyökkäsi jälleen, vallaten koko Vuoristo-Karabachin. Tämän jälkeen Armenia ja Azerbaijan allekirjoittivat rauhansopimuksen jossa tunnustettiin aluemenetykset.
Turkki on Azerbaijanin liittolainen ja maat ovat lähentyneet viime vuosina - jotkut näkevät maan "heimoveljinä" mutta tässäkin on sävyeroja riippuen siitä, keneltä kysytään. Samalla Venäjän vaikutusvalta Kaukasuksen alueella on heikentynyt, erityisesti Ukrainan sodan takia. Georgian kaappaaminen on ainoa "positiivinen" valopilkku ryssän näkökulmasta. Iran on nähty perinteisenä vastavoimana Turkille ja Azerbaijanille, mutta tällä hetkellä hekin ovat eräänlaisessa alennustilassa.
25.12.2024 tapahtui tämä:
Eli kuvamateriaali ja selviytyjien kertomukset viittaa, että tänään Bakusta Groznyyn ollut Azerbaijan Airlinesin lento 8243 olisi ammuttu alas Venäjän ilmatorjunnan toimesta. Kone yritti kolme kertaa laskeutumista Groznyyn ja vikalla kerralla matkustajien mukaan kuultiin ulkopuolinen räjähdys. Mielestäni ansaitsee oman ketjunsa kuten MH17 koneella oli, vaikka ei varmaan samanlaista mielenkiintoa herätäkkään.
https://maanpuolustus.net/threads/azerbaijanilaiskone-ammuttu-alas-groznyissa.8757/
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Tuorein käänne tässä koneen alasampumisessa ja siitä seuranneessa, pitkäksi venähtäneessä "tutkinnassa" oli tämä (tämä noottilappu on jaettu julkisuuteen tänään eli 2.7.2025 - eli monen muun tapahtuneen jälkeen):
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Azerbaijani media have published an anonymous letter containing an explanatory note by a Russian air defense captain from Grozny (Chechnya), claiming that the fire at the Azerbaijani AZAL Embraer E190 passenger plane was opened on the orders of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Reportedly, the letter also contains video footage, audio recordings, and details about the poor condition of the equipment.
The plane crashed on December 25, 2024 as it approached Grozny. In all probability, it was shot down by a Russian air defense missile. 38 people were killed.
ASTRA media claims to have spoken to the air defense commander who gave the order to shoot at the plane. According to them, he did not deny that he wrote the note. Azerbaijani media also claimed that the authenticity of the audio message and the note have been confirmed.
Text of the explanatory note:
"Regarding the questions addressed to me, I, Captain Dmitry Sergeyevich Paladichuk, can explain the following: I am the commander of combat vehicle No. 274, head of the crew, and was on combat duty covering the city of Grozny from December 24 to December 25, 2024. At 05:40 on December 25, 2024, an order was received to switch to combat readiness level 1. At 05:48, I reported the transition to readiness level 1 via mobile communication. The mobile connection at the site was unstable, and I had no other reliable means of communication. Fiber-optic cables were laid but not connected to the terminal, and there was no digital phone with a dialing panel.
At 08:11, the target detection station identified a potential target, which I locked onto for precise tracking using the MRLS, and I reported this to the command post of the 51st Division. At 08:13, I reported updated coordinates: azimuth 338 degrees, range 7,000 meters, altitude 490 meters, speed 118 m/s, heading 230 degrees. I was given an order by phone to destroy the target. The target was not visible optically due to very dense fog, which I reported to the command post.
At 08:13:30, I issued the fire command to the operator. At 08:13:33, the missile was launched. At 08:13:47, the TSVS BM-72V6 system indicated that the target was missed. At 08:13:48, I gave the order to fire again. According to the MRLS data, the first missile was launched when the target had the following coordinates: azimuth 319 degrees, range 7,300 meters, altitude 697 meters, speed 80 m/s. The second missile was launched when the target had the following coordinates: azimuth 311 degrees, range 8,000 meters, altitude 1,300 meters, speed 120 m/s."
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Nyt viime päivinä ryssä on pidättynyt väkivaltaisesti hyvin rikkaita ja merkittävissä asemissa olevia, Venäjällä asuvia azerbaijanilaisia. Tätä ei ole tehty salassa vaan tv-kamerat ovat olleet joka kerta mukana. Kaksi azerbaijanilaista on kuollut OMON-joukkojen käsissä (taisi olla väitetysti "kuulusteluissa"), tosin nämä eivät ole olleet näitä rikkaimpia miehiä.
Ukrainalainen Anton Gerashchenko tarjosi 30.6.2025 tällaisen kuvauksen tapahtumista sekä oman arvionsa syistä:
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A major diplomatic clash has erupted between Azerbaijan and Russia: Russia is losing its influence and control in Asia.
On June 27, during a raid in Russian Yekaterinburg, allegedly aimed at "detaining an ethnic gang," two Azerbaijani nationals were killed, nine arrested, and several others injured.
Preliminary reports identify the victims as Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov - members of a prominent family within the Azerbaijani diaspora.
According to defense lawyers, some of the detainees were tortured: one has broken ribs, two are in critical condition in the hospital. One of the arrested persons is unable to walk; the defense claims he was tortured with electric shocks.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry voiced a strong protest to Russia, condemning the actions of Russian law enforcement as "ethnically motivated violence."
A parliamentary delegation from Azerbaijan canceled its planned visit to Russia.
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Culture banned all cultural events, including concerts, exhibitions, and performances, organized by Russian citizens.
Prominent Azerbaijani journalist and activist Afgan Mukhtarli called for the Russian embassy to be burned down.
"Any self-respecting nation would have razed that embassy to the ground," he wrote.
A visit to Baku by a Russian Deputy Prime Minister was also canceled.
According to Azerbaijani authorities, the incident is part of a systematic campaign of pressure by Russia against the Azerbaijani community.
️ Context:
The Yekaterinburg raid has sharply escalated already strained relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.
The first visible rift came back in December, when a Russian air defense system shot down an AZAL (Azerbaijan Airlines) plane over Grozny. Azerbaijan is still awaiting an official response or even an apology from the Kremlin.
While the downing of the plane may have been accidental, the current actions appear to be deliberate and demonstrative: using a murder case from 2001 as a formal pretext, and carrying out the arrests with exceptional brutality.
So far, there has been no official response from Moscow to the accusations made by Baku.
The Kremlin is becoming increasingly irrelevant — and even obstructive — to official Baku.
Moscow has virtually lost its ability to influence Azerbaijan through formal channels.
The alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan is opening up a historic opportunity to create a major oil and gas hub, one that could displace Russia on the global energy market.
Moreover, Turkey is systematically taking advantage of Russia’s waning regional influence to expand its role in the South Caucasus — and potentially, in the broader North Caucasus region as well.
If Erdoğan and Aliyev succeed in normalizing relations with Armenia (and it was announced that Azerbaijan and Armenia would start talks on signing a peace treaty soon), the only remnant of Russian influence in the region would be the Ivanishvili regime in Georgia.
It’s also worth noting that many Azerbaijani nationals hold powerful positions in Russian business circles.
Thus, the highly demonstrative crackdown on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg may be a message from the Kremlin to Baku: stop drifting toward Turkey, or we’ll go after your top business elites.
But if Moscow is resorting to such crude methods of pressure, it suggests it has no other levers left.
This is yet another "multimove" by Putin - one that is likely to backfire and lead to a total collapse of influence instead of strengthening.
Situation with Azerbaijan is not just an isolated failure, it’s a symptom of a systemic breakdown.
Video: Azerbaijan's largest TV channel blamed Putin for repressions and humiliations: "What's going on, Putin? Are you that worried that Azerbaijan became a strong state for the first time in 200 years?" the TV host said and added that Russia was used to dominating the peoples it has forced to be a part of Russia.
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Televisiossa on käyty kiivasta propagandasotaa, tässä se mitä Clash Report jakoi 30.6.2025:
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Russia–Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate
Azerbaijan’s state TV accused Russia of repression and imperialism after several Azerbaijanis were detained over decades-old cases.
Baku canceled all Russia-related cultural events, calling the detentions “systematic and unjustified violence.”
JA tämä:
From Azerbaijan's state TV report on Russia:
What happened, Mr. Putin? Are you so worried that Azerbaijan has become a strong state, has returned lands, restored sovereignty, defends its interests, and that President Ilham Aliyev is recognized globally?
You are used to dominating peoples forcibly included in Russia. Whether tsarist or Soviet times, Russians were the master race; others were second-class. Though those empires are gone, the mindset persists.
In the past, Stalin used the NKVD; now Putin uses OMON. The year ’37 continues—harsher and more serious.
But does the Kremlin understand it’s not 1937? The former Soviet republics have been independent over 30 years. History forgets nothing: Stalin’s repressions, January 20, Khojaly, 30 years of occupation—all endured, not only by Armenia, but at the hands of Russia.
Yes, at the hands of Russia. For 30 years, it blocked resolution of Karabakh, played with our national pride—and now shows its strength to Azerbaijanis inside Russia.
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Azerbaijan on vastannut pidättämällä maassa asuvia venäläisiä, syyttäen näitä mm. vakoilusta ja kyberrikoksista. Pidätettyjä on esitelty televisiossa ja naamat ovat olleet heilläkin mustelmilla (tässä se mitä Nexta kirjoitti eilen kun video julkaistiin):
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Baku holds up the mirror — and suddenly Russia doesn't like the reflection
Azerbaijani media are publishing footage of detained Russian citizens — young, disoriented, and visibly roughed up. According to the agency Report, these are members of two organized crime groups suspected of drug trafficking, moving narcotics from Iran, and cyber fraud.
But what's more interesting than the charges is the presentation: the video is shot exactly like Russian arrest clips of migrants — including Azerbaijanis. Camera rolling, faces on the floor, carefully staged “neutralization” for public effect.
It’s a mirror message: Russians will now be treated the same way they treat migrants (and others). A powerful signal not just to Moscow, but to the whole post-Soviet space: yes, it turns out you can do that too. Biting back.
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Ainakin kahden miehen osalta syytökset voivat pitää paikkansa:
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NEW: Two Russia-funded Sputnik staffers in Baku were detained, allegedly undercover FSB agents.
Earlier today, security forces raided Sputnik’s office in Azerbaijan and took control of the premises.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry says it cannot reach the journalists and is “deeply concerned.”
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CaucasusWarReport kirjoitti aiheesta näin eilen:
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Now that Russia is steadily losing its grip over Armenia and Azerbaijan, with both countries edging closer to signing a long-awaited peace agreement, Moscow appears to be scrambling to reassert control. In Armenia, a failed coup attempt was orchestrated through elements within the church clergy, but Prime Minister Pashinyan was forewarned by allied intelligence agencies, effectively neutralizing the plot. Despite this, Russia still maintains a degree of influence in Armenia through its military presence, including bases and stationed troops.
Meanwhile, Russia’s military and economic influence in Azerbaijan has sharply declined. Baku is now strengthening defense ties with Israel, Turkey, Italy, and others, while expanding trade and infrastructure partnerships with China and Europe. As both South Caucasus nations pivot westward and eastward, the Kremlin’s traditional leverage in the region is steadily unraveling. In response, Russia has resorted to intimidation tactics in an attempt to retain influence and disrupt their strategic realignment.
JA näin:
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We won’t comment too much until the official details are released, but Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan have reached an agreement on the Zangezur corridor during Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent visit to Turkey. Under this deal, Russia will have zero control over the corridor effectively being cut out entirely.
In response, Moscow attempted a failed coup against Pashinyan through clerical channels last week to disrupt the ongoing negotiations. Now, it’s trying to pressure Azerbaijan, but those efforts are also falling flat. In essence, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are forming a new regional axis that openly challenges Russian influence.
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HUOM: kun seuraa twitteristä eri tilien kommentointia niin tulee tiedostaa niiden taustat, sikäli kun ne ovat tiedettävissä. Clash Report on turkkilainen ja CausasusWarReport on ulkomailla asuva azeri (ilmeisesti taustalla on useita kirjoittajia eikä vain yksi). Hänen tunnustamansa väri tiedetään:
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Ryssä yrittää tietysti esiintyä rauhankyyhkynä ja diplomaattina, mutta sanojen ja tekojen ristiriita on hyvin suuri:
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Russian Foreign Ministry:
We call on Baku to ensure that relations return to level of strategic cooperation.
JA näin:
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Peskov commented on the conversation between Presidents Zelenskyy and Aliyev:
"Ukraine will now do everything possible to add fuel to the fire, to provoke the Azerbaijani side into emotional actions and to push for the continuation of such emotional responses. This is very easy to predict. Russia has never threatened and does not threaten Azerbaijan."