Uutisia Tsekeistä
- Viestiketjun aloittaja RKSTAK
- Aloitus PVM
ido59
Majuri
Jandan analyysi tsekkien vaalituloksesta on varovaisen optimistinen. Tai näkee torjuntavoittona.
Hallituksen muodostaminen ja pystyssä pitäminen tulee olemaan vaikeaa.
Nato-suhteet jatkunevat maltillisesti lännen valtavirrassa. Rauhanpuheet Ukrainasta lisääntynevät, mutta tulkitsen ettei tässä uutta orbania olla saamassa. Pahimmat ryssäfiilit eivät saaneet suosiota.
Heikon hallituksen vuoksi maanpuolustushenkisen pressa Pavelin suhteellinen valta kasvaa, ainakin näkyvyys ulkopolitiikassa.
Hallituksen muodostaminen ja pystyssä pitäminen tulee olemaan vaikeaa.
Nato-suhteet jatkunevat maltillisesti lännen valtavirrassa. Rauhanpuheet Ukrainasta lisääntynevät, mutta tulkitsen ettei tässä uutta orbania olla saamassa. Pahimmat ryssäfiilit eivät saaneet suosiota.
Heikon hallituksen vuoksi maanpuolustushenkisen pressa Pavelin suhteellinen valta kasvaa, ainakin näkyvyys ulkopolitiikassa.
CZECH ELECTION: INITIAL SUMMARYWHAT HAPPENED: populist centre-left ANO clearly won with 35%, while the incumbent centre-right coalition lost the majority
WHAT TO EXPECT:
1) with ANO isolated, the only option is to form a coalition with both protest parties - far-right (SPD) and hard-right (Motoriste)
2) any ANO-led coalition with hard/far-right parties will be extremely fragile since it consists:
MAGA-like party (Motoriste)
far-right pro-Russia party (SPD)
random libertarians (Svobodní)
two minor far-extreme entities (PRO and Trikolora)
3) ANO will be the most policy-moderate part of the expected coalition. Fringe & protest parties will likely lead domestically-focused culture wars from their parliamentary seats.
4) Russia policy: expect ANO to keep moderately pro-NATO line within European mainstream. Staying mute not to trigger its coalition partners, but keeping much of the policies in place. Likely coalition partners will rhetorically call for peace talks and appeasement, mainly to satisfy their radical voters.
5) China policy: not a major issue for any party. Expect almost no rhetorics on China. Czech national security institutions keep pretty hawkish line, as they did during previous ANO cabinet (2017-2021), which is expected to continue. Much of China policy will likely be driven by Czech President Petr Pavel, an uber-hawk on China,
GOOD NEWS:
1) the most pro-Russian & pro-Chinese coalition of Communists and Socialists collapsed, failed to make it to the parliament (not making the 5 % threshold, made only 4.5%)
2) the fragile coalition set-up will increase the power of President Petr Pavel, who sets the strategic policy boundaries (EU & NATO membership, support for Ukraine, increased defence budget) and will likely be more visible in foreign policy
3) pro-Russian or pro-Chinese elements across Czech politics got serious beating, even dominant pro-Russian far-right party (SPD) dropped heavily from expected 10-12% to final below 8%
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