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10 REASONS WHY THERE WILL NOT BE AN INVASION OF RUSSIA
Lukashenko said that he would receive from Moscow “at our first request, comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus,” and mentioned the CSTO in this regard. And now in detail why I do not believe in this horror story.
: point_right: Russia does not save falling regimes with troops. To take out the leader - yes, to save the regime, which has no support base left - no.
The only exception is Syria, but there was already a civil war, and Russian troops did not occupy the territory, they mainly worked through airstrikes. Whom should we bomb? Workshops MTZ and Belaz? Or the striking Belteleradiocompany?
: point_right: Belarusians do not want external intervention and do not want to be part of Russia. Here is the most recent poll of the Academy of Sciences: for joining the Russian Federation - less than 7%. For a closer union - less than 25%. The rest are for the friendship of independent countries. Belarus is not Crimea, which, like, asked him to be saved from the Nazis. There will be no roses.
: point_right: People who do not ask to save them will have to be held back with great force. The occupation troops are tens of thousands of people. And if partisanship begins, which is almost inevitable in this case and on such a social upsurge - hundreds of thousands. And thousands of victims. There is simply no more gentle way.
: point_right: Such an intervention is the loss of the Belarusian people for an even longer time than the Ukrainian. A people who are friendly to Russia today. According to the polls of Vardomatsky's laboratory, more than 70% support the current format of relations - without borders and customs, only 5-7% - for breaking ties.
: point_right: Add to this the flow of coffins home, the claims of their own people, who have not been explained that Bandera's people are striving for power in Minsk, and also the unprecedentedly harsh sanctions of the West.
: point_right: And all for what? For the sake of not leaving Belarus to the EU? Today's opposition is not in favor of this. And this is absurd given the current dependence of Minsk on Moscow. Leaving the EAEU and closing access to the Russian market means stopping the entire economy for a month. We owe Russia more than 70% of our external debt.
: point_right: Intrusion does not solve the problem of internal stability either. The workers will not return to the factories, there will be a collapse of the banking system, tens of billions will have to be injected for humanitarian needs. And these are five Crimea by population. Recall that the Russian economy has not yet recovered itself after the coronavirus.
: point_right: The protesters do not come out with anti-Russian or pro-Western slogans. There is no such agenda at all. The Kremlin is not blind and sees this. Russia has accepted the results of the same unrelated revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
Moscow is always reorienting itself to the winning side. Especially realizing that this side is no more hostile than the authorities taking Russian citizens as hostages for the elections.
: point_right: Read the Kremlin's statement after the morning conversation with Lukashenka. There is a lot about friendship between peoples and enemies, but not a word about support for the current Belarusian president. The Kremlin has taken a wait-and-see attitude.
: point_right: For lawyers. The CSTO Charter does not provide for military assistance without external aggression (an armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) against a member state. Lukashenka blamed the Russians for this throughout the campaign and is now trying to portray a threat from the West.
But it is even difficult to come up with it in this situation. According to rumors, high-ranking Russians and Europeans are already calling up and laughing at these stories. A hybrid attack from the Telegram channel NEXTA is not spelled out in the CSTO charter.
P.S. In order to prevent such a scenario in the future, in case of victory, the transitional Belarusian authorities should not touch Soviet monuments, change symbols or cancel the state status of the Russian language in euphoria. But given that there will be a lot of things to do, and according to all available polls, these measures in Belarus are not supported by the majority, I see no reason to think that the transitional government will go crazy and start doing this at all.
uk.reuters.com
Vai siirtyykö laskuvarjojoukko pois mestoilta.....onko tilalle tulossa joku toinen yhtymä vähän kompassisuunnasta itä?