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COUP UPDATES: Putin Reportedly Leaves Moscow | Machine Gun Positions Around Moscow | Wagner Convoy Heads to MoscowAs the coup continues, here's the latest updates from our various sources live on the ongoing Twitter Space:
- Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago
- Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force
- Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin's Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.
MY THOUGHTS:- This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin.- We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces- Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt (THIS IS AN EVOLVING STORY. UPDATES BELOW IN THREAD)
 
www.is.fi

Kommentti: Kapina voi tarjota Putinille pakotien ulos sodasta – tekeekö Prigozhin juuri viimeistä palvelusta isännälleen?

Ukrainan sota tulee ensi kertaa toden teolla venäläisten silmille ja kotikaduille, mutta Wagnerin kapinan lopullinen hyötyjä saattaa silti olla Vladimir Putin, Arja Paananen kirjoittaa.
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"Jos Putin ja hänen voimakoneistonsa onnistuisivat kukistamaan Prigozhinin kapinan nopeasti ja tarpeeksi näyttävästi, se heikentäisi toki hetkeksi Putinin valtaa, mutta se antaisi sen jälkeen Kremlille tekosyyn vaikka minkälaisiin yhteiskunnan sisäisiin sorto- ja rajoitustoimiin. Putin voisi siinä rytäkässä perua helposti myös vuoden 2024 presidentinvaalit ja julistautua Venäjän elinikäiseksi johtajaksi".
 
Girkin ajatuksia Wagnerin toimista. Rostovissa pidettiin paljon meteliä jotta taisteluhaluiset joukot keskittyisivät sinne ja kovin kärki mahdollisimman nopeasti Moskovaan vältellen joukkoja jotka kykenevät taisteluun. Wagnerin heikkouksina Girkin näkee huollon ja suuren ja taisteluhaluisen osaston kohtaamisen. Moskovassa hän arvioi olevan tuplasti koko Wagnerin verran miehiä mutta näiden taisteluinto on valtava kysymysmerkki.
So, the strategic idea of Prigozhin's team is extremely clear, logical, very risky, but it strikes with courage and has a chance of success in an atmosphere of sluggishness and demotivation of all power structures of the Russian Federation. Having gained a foothold in Rostov and diverting attention to themselves, they sharply throw the most combat-ready shock units (several thousand bayonets) into a raid on Moscow. Their task - bypassing all major centers (Voronezh passed by, passing Lipetsk as well) and trying not to get involved in battles with local garrisons (even without blocking them) - to rush to Moscow and by all means reach it as soon as possible. Further - the calculation is made on the panic and flight of all senior officials and the seizure of power "lying on the ground." Further, Prigozhin will only have to take the turn of those eager to urgently swear to him "suddenly seeing the light" officials of all ranks and solemnly enter the Kremlin. "And there - it will be seen" (what will happen next with Russia, the criminal and the garcon, I'm sure, worries the least, for that he will certainly become the "best in hell" and go down in history as the first criminal who took the post of ruler of our unfortunate country ).
This strategy has only two vulnerabilities: the possibility of a collision with relatively large units that are combat-ready and do not want to surrender (or remain neutral) before approaching Moscow, and - inevitable in this case, problems with supplying the strike force, which will fight in isolation for longer than a couple of days from the supply will not be able to. And then - inevitably defeat.
And here the Wagner strategists again "guessed" the decision - to "dig in" part of the forces in Rostov and attract there the efforts of those who are still ready to fight (at least at the level of intentions) for the Kremlin.
In general, there are twice as many "service people" in Moscow than in the entire "Wagner" and many times more than in its shock group. But how many of them are able to fight and whether they will do it at all is a big question. This is the whole "intrigue" and the key to the outcome of this (I will pay tribute) brilliantly daring "raid". Whether
the idea will work or not, we will find out, perhaps, already at the beginning of the next day.
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Krisun juttua Moskovassa vastassa olevista poliiseista ja kansalliskaartista. Niin kuin tälläkin palstalla tiedetään, niistä ei miltään osin ole taistelemaan wankkereita vastaan. Moskovassa asuvia ex-wankkereita laitettu turvasäilöön ja turvallisuuselinten kenraalit pohtivat keskenään, miten tilanteesta selviäisi, kenen puolella kannattaa olla. Pari poimintaa, joissa olennaiset:

1/ The security forces in Moscow are reported to be utterly incapable of resisting a heavily armed force like Wagner. Police generals are said to considering which side to back, while forces on the ground are already defecting to Wagner.

3/ Checkpoints manned by police and National Guard units have been set up on the outskirts of the city. Former Wagner members living in Moscow are being taken into preventative custody. Behind the scenes, the generals are said to be "discussing how to serve the new regime."

4/ The security forces are in no shape to fight off Wagner. An Interior Ministry source says: "No one on the police force is ready for combat operations. Absolutely no one."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672598608154181634
 
Lawrence Freedmanin (Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London) pitkä kirjoitus, ajatuksia Prigozhinin kapinasta:

Prigozhin's Mutiny​

What's going on in Russia?​

24.6.2023

Prigozhin's Mutiny​

What's going on in Russia?​


LAWRENCE FREEDMAN
JUN 24, 2023
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Having been told for months that Putin was fully in control and not vulnerable to coups, his authority is now being directly challenged in a way that may have far-reaching implications for the regime as well as the course of the war. The confidence there would be no coup was due to there being nobody obvious to lead one, given a serious candidate would need to be backed by credible military capabilities.

Now we have a candidate. This coup is being led by the boss of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin. At first the smart money was on his failure because the full weight of the Russian state is against him. Before he made his moves, he was declared a traitor, his offices were raided, and his bases shelled. But the Russian state is inept and decrepit. If the aim was to catch Prigozhin unawares and shut him up it failed, because he appears to have had some notice of what was being prepared for him and so took his own initiatives. If you are going to move against your opponents you need to be decisive. Prigozhin got away (like Zelensky in February 2022).

Instead a column of his men crossed from the Donbas into Russia, without hindrance, moving towards Rostov-on-Don. This is a vital command centre and logistic hub for the war. As he did so his people reportedly hacked into local TV and radio, broadcasting appeals for support, claiming that those who support Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu are the real traitors and supporters of Ukraine.

Putin now appreciates the danger that he should have realised weeks ago. In his Saturday morning address he denounced those stabbing Russia in the back at a time of war, insisted that they would be punished, confirmed that a ‘counter-terrorism’ regime was now in place in Moscow, and promised his people that everything was under control. He managed to do this without actually uttering Prigozhin’s name. The Wagner boss has become Voldemort.

There are many uncertainties about developments on the ground. These are situations when rumours are fertilised and grow rapidly, so it is unwise to talk yet with great confidence about what is happening let alone how events will unfold. But at times like this speculation is unavoidable.

How did we get here?

We are on reasonably sure ground when charting the development of this crisis for the Russian state. The tension has been evident for months, gaining attention with Prigozhin’s frequent complaints that he was being starved of ammunition during the long battle for the city of Bakhmut. At one point he threatened to walk away from the battle unless his needs were met, agreed to carry on when told that he would get his supplies, and then still grumbled that it was not enough. Once Bakhmut was taken, after months of gruelling urban combat, there were further complaints that weaknesses among Russian regular forces had allowed the Ukrainians to take back territory on the flanks, thus rendering the efforts of his men useless.

This led to a wider critique of the quality of Russia’s senior command for being out of touch with the harsh realities of the war, playing down casualties, and talking as if all was well when clearly it wasn’t. Then Shoigu made a push to have the Wagner group and other private military companies put under his direct control. Prigozhin made a big show of rejecting Shoigu’s orders. He was already in mutinous mood.

Through this it was assumed that Prigozhin was sufficiently close to Putin to have some latitude when it came to making a noise. Perhaps it suited Putin for a friendly critic to keep his main military advisors on their toes. Yet was he so friendly? The sharper the criticisms the closer they got to Putin. The accusation that the President was being kept wilfully uninformed by his underlings was hardly a ringing endorsement of his leadership. He was either gullible or complicit.

Nor did Putin make any effort to distance himself from Shoigu. Whenever he speaks about military operations, which he has been doing recently more often than at any point since the Ukrainian counter-offensive began, he takes the Shoigu line that all is well, that the Ukrainians are taking a beating, that NATO equipment is nothing special, and that his forces are being prepared for a long haul should this be necessary. One continuity in his pronouncements is that he remains far surer about why the war had to be fought than how it can be won. On this he remains remarkable vague.

Boiling over

It is the question of the war’s necessity that made Prigozhin’s latest accusations so incendiary. Those made on Friday were quite different in nature and direction to anything that had gone before, challenging not only the conduct of the war but the whole basis upon which it was launched. The shots might have been aimed at Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, the commander-in-chief, but Vladimir Putin was clearly in the firing line.

Remember that the pretext for this war was that Ukraine was mounting a ‘genocide’ against the Russian-speaking people of the Donbas, egged on by NATO. That made the invasion urgent, both to safeguard the potential victims and to remove the hateful neo-Nazi regime that was engaging in such terrible acts. The whole sequence of events leading to the 24 February 2022 invasion was orchestrated in line with this theory, starting with the Security Council meeting on the morning of 21 February which was asked whether the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics (DNR/LNR) be recognised.

Putin immediately decided that they should be, confirmed the next day that this covered the classical boundaries of these oblasts rather than the DNR/LNR enclaves, and gained authority from the Duma to do whatever was necessary to defend them. This was followed by a staged incident in Luhansk, a request for help to meet Kyiv’s aggression, and then the full-scale invasion.

In his Friday morning video Prigozhin took down this whole contrivance. He explained that there was no extraordinary threat to the Donbas prior to the invasion, that artillery exchanges were no more than usual, and that the whole business was a put-up affair by Shoigu and other corrupt officers, backed by oligarchs making money out of the military build-up. So damning was the charge that the FSB, the security agency, opened a criminal investigation against Prigozhin. Later Prigozhin was on air again, showing images of the aftermath of an attack by Russian missiles and helicopters on a Wagner camp. He moved even further onto the rhetorical offensive. ‘The evil carried by the country’s military leadership must be stopped.’ The official Russian media denied the attacks, insisting sniffily, that they remained preoccupied with the fight against Ukrainian forces.

What is going on?

Maybe this was an elite fight that got out of hand, a consequence of a military system that failed to achieve unity of command and allowed a number of these private military companies, not just Wagner, to operate independently and according to their own agendas. Since he moved out of the shadows during the course of this war Prigozhin has shown an interest in an eventual political career. He has his own propaganda machine and significant name-recognition among the population. Most importantly he commands a substantial body of men – as many as 25,000 engaged in his current manoeuvres.

The language we have to describe these events often fails to grasp their singular nature. When we talk of coups we imagine armed men rushing into the Kremlin to arrest or kill Putin and installing a new leader, with the main media outlets seized to ensure that everyone knows who is now in charge. In that sense it is not a coup and Prigozhin has insisted that he is not mounting one. His aim is solely to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov and replace the ‘meat-grinding’ strategies they have followed in the war. At any rate following Putin’s speech whether or not this was his intention, Prigozhin is in a direct confrontation with the Russian President. One of them will be a loser.

Prigozhin will have some supporters among the civil and military elite, for his arguments if not for his character, and he is after all not short of funds when it comes to buying favours and intelligence. And while most will take it for granted that their careers and wellbeing depend on Putin’s survival, few can have many illusions left about the mismanagement of this war and the costs it is imposing on Russian society and economy. Most for now will be keeping their heads down, but if this goes much further then there will be demands for loyalty that will carry their own risks.

There has been some fighting, sufficiently serious for Wagner to claim to have shot down three helicopters, but it has not yet got close to a civil war, which would mean that the armed forces were completely divided against each other as if they were confronting an external enemy. On the ground Wagner does not appear to have faced much resistance, even as he walked into the Russian army’s main command centre.

Nor is it an insurrection. Prigozhin has urged people to go out on to the streets to get rid of their ‘weak government’, (‘we will find weapons’). To the extent that they know what is going on the Russian people are likely to be alarmed and perplexed but they are not going to rush out onto the streets and start building barricades. It is certainly not a drive to make peace. At Rostov Prigozhin has taken care to show that he is not interfering with the business of Southern Command as it tries to manage the war, although one must assume that the officers involved must be a tad distracted at the moment. He wants to appear patriotic and claims that he has a better way to fight the war.

It is, however, a mutiny. As such everything for Prigozhin depends on whether his accusations ring true to other troops and prompt them to join his ranks, or at least refuse to start fighting his men. By and large Wagner has shown more discipline and elan than many other Russian forces and it would not be surprising if they gained the upper hand in any fighting. This could soon have a knock-on effect on the cohesion of the loyalist military response.

Prigozhin is clearly not alone in his disdain for the higher command of this war. There are many military bloggers, often extremely nationalistic and pro-war, who are candid about the failings of Russian forces and also blame corruption and complacency at the top. What distinguishes him from others is that he has a large and apparently loyal force at his disposal. Unlike other generals he also has actual victories to his credit, albeit pyrrhic in nature. His men were to the fore in the capture of Soledar and Bakhmut. Elsewhere during the recent Russian offensive there were only costly failures.

Furthermore we know that for many in the front lines, especially those that have been fighting in the Donbas, conditions have been miserable, casualties extremely high, and commanders absent. The Wagner group has claimed that contracted Russian troops would rather be with them than under Gerasimov’s chain of command. Those in the Donbas have supposedly served as part of the LNR and DNR militias, but these have been hollowed out, as their troops kept on getting killed, and now seem to be run as rackets by the remaining local warlords. One of the many tragedies of this war is how those supposedly being protected from mythical Ukrainian atrocities have suffered harsh treatment at the hands of their protectors. Vital cities have been reduced to ruin. Since the first moves in the Donbas to challenge the Ukrainian authorities in the spring of 2014 this region has been impoverished.

What Next?

It is telling that Moscow’s instinctive response is to insist that the mutiny is already failing and that Wagner fighters are seeing the error of their ways and returning to join their true comrades. There is a hope, present in Putin’s speech, that the Wagner troops can be divided from their leader. Denying bad news is the default position of this regime but there is no evidence for now that the mutiny is faltering.

The big question is how the rest of the armed forces will respond. One of the most remarkable videos to emerge so far shows Prigozhin talking in Rostov with Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev, the deputy chief of Russia's military intelligence service, who were both presumably on duty at the command HQ, and now appear to be effectively hostages. Alekeev had not long before issued his own video urging Prigozhin to abandon his adventure. Intriguingly from the same room Prigozhin’s main ally in the high command, General Sergei Surovikin (incidentally a participant in the 1991 coup against Gorbachev), had issued a similar appeal, delivered more in sadness than in anger. So where is Surovikin now? He is potentially a key player.

Shoigu and Gerasimov, who Prigozhin also claimed to be in Rostov, do not appear to be there now. As they still have Putin’s backing it will be up to them to organise the counter-mutiny. Prigozhin now has to decide whether to continue with his march on Moscow as he has promised knowing that preparations are being made to receive him. The UK MOD claims that his men have already reached a half-way point at Voronezh What happens now depends on the loyalty of troops. There are reports – rumours – of some from mainstream forces going over to Wagner. Many more may be passive spectators. If he can’t mobilise substantial loyalist units then Putin is in trouble. If he can then Prigozhin will be isolated and potentially crushed. One factor in all of this is where the loyal troops come from given that so much of the army is bogged down in Ukraine.

Even if Wagner is defeated quickly, which I would not take for granted, then this is still a big shock to the regime and it will have been weakened. If the confrontation goes in the other direction then all bets are off and panic may start to grip the Kremlin. The problem for autocrats like Putin is that they don’t really know what is going on among their people, and that tends to add to the panic. Moreover once the high command looks vulnerable what will the junior commanders do in their battles with Ukrainian forces? How keen will they be to die for a cause that seems lost? For now those watching events with the greatest enthusiasm will be the Ukrainian high command. There are opportunities opening up for offensive operations that they never expected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672595331572178946
 
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