The Iran-China Axis
A demonstration that regional authoritarian powers don’t tend to stay in their region.
Iran’s revolutionary slogan “Neither West, nor East” signified the country’s antagonism to the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But as China rises—and Iranian rulers focus on survival under U.S. pressure—the Islamic Republic is taking a side.
Beijing and Tehran are negotiating a 25-year deal that would deepen economic and military cooperation between the two countries. While talks will continue for months, details about the scope of the negotiations have leaked to the press.
In exchange for what would likely be discounted Iranian oil, China could invest some $400 billion in dozens of industrial projects over a quarter-century. In addition to the construction of airports and railways, Beijing could receive preferential treatment at Iranian ports and develop free-trade zones around the country. The regimes might work together on weapons development while deepening broader military ties.
Iran doesn’t have the good fortune of negotiating again with John Kerry, who turned significant American advantages into the deeply flawed 2015 nuclear deal. Aware of China’s penchant for taking advantage of weaker nations, most notably through the Belt and Road initiative, the not-yet-announced accord has faced significant criticism in Iran—from pro-Western voices as well as hardline former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Defenders of the 2015 nuclear deal say that President Trump’s withdrawal has pushed Iran into China’s arms. Yet Beijing and Tehran have been discussing this partnership since 2016. Iran was as antagonistic as ever even after Western dollars began flowing into the country under the nuclear accord.
China is pushing to deepen ties with Iran as Beijing’s aggressive behavior gives other nations pause. The United Kingdom and Australia are overtly pushing back despite Chinese threats. Chinese neighbors increasingly look to the West in the face of Beijing’s sometimes bullying. While Germany’s Angela Merkel hesitates to criticize her country’s biggest trading partner, other European states are reassessing their relationship with Beijing.
As more Chinese deals with Iran become public, the U.S. shouldn’t hesitate to use its clout in the global financial system to frustrate them. Washington imposed sanctions on a Chinese firm last year for transporting Iranian oil, and the China National Petroleum Corp. gave up on a natural-gas project in Iran as it struggled to find banking channels.
The question is whether this approach would continue under a President Joe Biden. The Democratic nominee says he’ll be tougher on China than Mr. Trump, but he has vowed to return to the 2015 nuclear deal before negotiating a new one. Ending Mr. Trump’s maximum-pressure sanctions regime would throw away hard-won leverage and smooth the path for more Chinese investments.
The new axis, like the growing China-Russia alliance, shows the dangers from ambitious authoritarian powers. American isolationists want the U.S. to retreat to the Western Hemisphere and cede “spheres of influence” to China in Asia, Russia in Eastern Europe, and Iran in the Middle East. But these powers rarely settle for mere regional dominance. They cooperate in their common antipathy to Western democratic values. That’s the larger warning from the Iran-China condominium.
