Sanctions can bring the two ambitious powers closer, as China can fill the void these sanctions create for Russia’s economy.
"Russia's growing cooperative relationship with China will get closer, as the latter attempts to adapt to recent rounds of new sanctions, resulting from its invasion of Ukraine," said Colares.
That can mean finding new markets for its exports, and securing its eastern border, as its troops venture into Ukraine.
"Obviously, selling more coal or energy to China makes sense for Russia and was going to happen even if Russia had not invaded Ukraine," Colares said.
"Like in trade, closer ties to China also allows Russia to keep fewer troops on its border with China, as the recent transfer for military assets and troops from that region to Belarus demonstrates. Short of US and NATO-ally imposition of secondary sanctions against any country that trades with Russia, the Sino-Russia commercial relationship has zero chance of reversing."
Meanwhile, China and Russia need each other in the U.N. Security Council, where they can derail any action against their territorial ambitions. For instance, Beijing abstained from a resolution that deplored Moscow's Ukraine invasion.
In short, sanctions may help Washington and its allies save face in front of Moscow's aggression. Still, they won't have any meaningful impact on Russia's economy, as China stands by to help its "ally" cope with the consequences. And they won't help European allies of the U.S. become less dependent on energy imports from Russia either.
"In sum, closer cooperation between the two countries (and Iran, in some cases), whether motivated by their territorial expansionism or desire to play the role of a spoiler to U.S. and Western alliance interests, there is very little chance that existing sanctions will reverse an already crescent approximation," said Colares.
"Western leaders' recent tranches of sanctions show a myopic incrementalism and unwillingness to abandon a green agenda that impedes reassertion of energy prowess."
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