The North Korean air force only has a handful of relatively modern fighters including the early versions of the Soviet Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum and the MiG-23 Flogger that could threaten American warplanes. Neither are likely to be able to get close enough to a B-1B, B-52 or a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber before being unceremoniously blown out of the sky by American fighter escorts. The only chance the North Korean air force would have of successfully engaging American bombers is if by chance they caught those aircraft without U.S. or allied fighter cover.
North Korea would have a better chance at shooting down a bomber with a surface-to-air missile battery if the American aircraft were close enough. While the overwhelming majority of North Korean air defenses are older Soviet systems, Pyongyang does field some surprisingly capable indigenous weapons.
“They have a mix of old Soviet SAMs [surface-to-air missiles], including the S-75, S-125, S-200 and Kvadrat, which are likely in more or less good condition,” Vasily Kashin, a senior fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics
told The National Interest earlier this year. “They used to produce the S-75 themselves — and those could have received some significant upgrades. In addition to them, since early the 2010s they are fielding an indigenous modern SAM system which is called KN-06 by South Korea and the U.S.”
It is not clear how many KN-06 SAM batteries Pyongyang has built, but the North Korean weapon is a surprisingly capable system that is similar to early model versions of the Russian-built S-300. “No one knows exactly how many such systems exist,” Kashin said. “The KN-06 has phased array radar and tracks via missile guidance system and maybe equivalent to the early S-300P versions but with greater range.”
North Korean KN-06 surface-to-air missile. KCNA photo
Kashin — who is a specialist on Asian matters — said that South Korean sources have written that the KN-06 has been successfully tested. The weapon is thought to have a range of up to 150 kilometers. One of the reasons that the KN-06 is often ignored — even though information is available about it — is that Western analysts often underestimate Pyongyang’s industrial capabilities.
The North Korean threat cannot be dismissed out of hand. Pyongyang has shot down American military aircraft in the past — and gotten away with it. One such event took place on April 15, 1969, during the Nixon administration, when a North Korean MiG-21 downed a U.S. Navy Lockheed EC-121 Warning Star reconnaissance aircraft, killing all 31 crew members onboard. Nixon ultimately did not retaliate but he did briefly consider a nuclear strike in response to the North Korean provocation.
“When I got to see the colonel, it was very simple. He described the shooting down of the EC-121 about a hundred miles at sea. And that he had a message, which he showed me at that time, saying to prepare to strike my target,” Bruce Charles, a former U.S. Air Force F-4 Phantom II pilot on temporary duty that day at Kunsan Air Base at the time
told NPR. Charles’ F-4 was primed for launch carrying a 330-kiloton B61 tactical thermonuclear bomb. “”The order to stand down was just about dusk, and it was not a certainty. The colonel said, ‘It looks like from the messages I’m getting, we will not do this today. I do not know about tomorrow.’”
On Dec. 18, 1994, North Korea
shot down an unarmed U.S. Army OH-58 Kiowa reconnaissance helicopter over the DMZ, killing one pilot and capturing another. The Clinton administration — realizing that there were no good options for retaliation — chose restraint.
But North Korea hasn’t just attacked American aircraft in the past; it has also attacked U.S. Navy vessels. On Jan. 23, 1968, North Korea seized the U.S. Navy surveillance ship USS
Pueblo — killing one sailor and capturing 83 others. The ship remains in North Korean hands, but the crew was eventually released on Dec. 23, 1968. Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson considered a host of retaliatory measures —
including a nuclear strike — but ultimately backed down.
It is unclear how the current administration will react, but the situation is only becoming more unstable.