Syyrian konflikti

No,Israelilla ei näissä ole varaa antaa siimaa.Ja he ovat sen tehneet selväksi.
 
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5315360,00.html

"Israel rejects Russian offer to keep Iranian forces 100 km from Golan"

Näemmä Israel ei halua mitään sopimusta, joka sitoisi sotilaallisesti käsiä. Seuraavaa ilmaiskua odotellessa.

Ei tuo voi sopia,kun israelilla on ideana saada Iranin joukot kokonaan pois maasta.Kuulemma. Muuten Iran saa rauhassa rakentaa tukikohtiaan Syyriaan. Netanjahu ja kumppanit sanoivat että se on ihan mahdollista saada Iran pois. Jotenkin ne jenkkien kanssa asiaa ajavat,mutta kukaan ei oikein tiedä miten tarkalleen he aikovat sen tehdä? Tietävätkö itsekkään vai onko vain haihattelua.
 
Ainakin 150 ihmistä on kuollut itsemurhaiskujen ja hyökkäysten sarjassa eteläisessä Syyriassa keskiviikkona, kertovat kansainväliset uutistoimistot.
Ääriliike Isis on ilmoittautunut hyökkäysten tekijäksi. Oppositiomyönteisen tarkkailijajärjestön Syrian Observatory of Human Rightsin mukaan hyökkäykset kohdistuivat pääosin hallituksen kontrolloimaan Sweidan maakuntaan. Järjestön mukaan kuolleita olisi 156, joista 62 ovat siviilejä ja loput 94 Syyrian hallituksen puolella olevia taistelijoita, jotka olivat tarttuneet aseisiin puolustaakseen kotejansa. Iskuja seurasi paikallisten aseistettujen ryhmien välisiä yhteenottoja. Järjestön mukaan kolme itsemurhapommittajaa olisivat räjäyttäneet vyönsä Sweidan kaupungissa, samalla kun muut hyökkäykset kohdistuivat kaupungin pohjois- ja itäpuolilla oleviin kyliin.
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10322654

The Islamic State (IS) group has said it carried out the attacks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44949823

ISIS on myös salamurhannut lukuisia kapinallisryhmien komentajia viime viikkoina.
 
http://nedaa-sy.com/en/news/7503

"According to media and field sources, the Syrian regime withdrew its weapons from the villages of rural Suwaida province before the sudden "Islamic State" organization attack on the province, raising further questions about the extent of the regime's complicity in that event. "


ISIS taas vaihteeksi Assadin työkaluna, West Pointissa tullaan luennoimaan Syyrian sodasta vielä pitkään.
 
Debka. Tsänssit sille että totuutta on livahtanut joukkoon on aika pienet.
Jos ohjuksen itsetuho ei toimikaan niin ei se silti välttämättä tarkoita että se päätyy ehjänä viholliselle. Se lävähtää kuitenkin tonttiin kovaa ja tst-kärki voi siinä räjähtää kuitenkin. Ja laskeutumispaikasta riippuen voi täydestä suutaristakin jäädä aika vähän tutkittavaa.
 
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5318331,00.html

"In addition, IDF's two-year-old "Good Neighbor" project, which included providing Syrians refugees with medical and logistic aid, is expected to end during the upcoming weeks with Assad's gaining full control over the area bordering with Israel.
Several IDF officials desire to continue the project, and some more low-scale alternatives are being reviewed."
 
Druusit saivat siipeensä ISIS-pommittajilta Etelä-Syyriassa.

Syrian Media: Druze Minority Targeted in Suicide Bombings that Kill More than 100 People
As Assad's forces battle the ISIS-linked group near the frontier with Israeli Golan Heights and southern Syria, a series of Islamic State orchestrated suicide bombings rocked the area killing 38 people; The deadliest attack occurred in the city of Sweiba, a provincial capital populated by Syria's minority Druze.
Jul 27, 2018, 3:00PM Aaron Sull


A series of suicide bombings and attacks in southern Syria, including a motorcycle bomber who struck at a busy vegetable market, killed more than 100 people on Wednesday, state media reported, blaming Islamic State militants for the carnage

The bombings in the city of Sweiba, a provincial capital populated by Syria's minority Druze, were apparently timed to coincide with attacks by a militant group linked to ISIS on a number of villages in the province, also called Sweida.

The coordinated attacks—the worst in recent months—had all the hallmarks of the Islamic State group and were reminiscent of its horrific assaults that spread mayhem over the past years in Syria, already ravaged by civil war.

suicide bombing 2.jpg
Site of suicide bombings (Photo: Reuters)

Al-Ikhbariya state-run TV showed images from several locations in the province and its capital where the bombers blew themselves up. The breakdown of the fatalities from the attacks was not immediately known and no group immediately claimed responsibility for the bombings.

The rare attacks in Sweida came amid a government offensive elsewhere in the country's south. Government forces are battling the ISIS-linked group near the frontier with Israeli Golan Heights and near the border with Jordan. The group also has a small presence on the eastern edge of Sweida province.

ISIS has been largely defeated in Syria and Iraq, but still has pockets of territory it controls in eastern Syria and in the country's south.

Since their offensive in June, Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces have retaken territories controlled by the rebels along the Golan Heights frontier and are now fighting militants in the country's southern tip.

The death toll, initially reported at 27, quickly climbed. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported a series of suicide blasts in the city of Sweida and the clashes in the province's countryside.

The Observatory said the attacks killed 56 people, including 28 pro-government fighters, four attackers and 12 militants. The discrepancy in death tolls is common in the early hours of such large attacks.

An activist-operated media platform on Facebook, Sweida News Network said a local militia was fighting the advancing ISIS-affiliated group and that at least 30 militiamen were killed in clashes with the militants.

Al-Ikhbariya said one of the attackers hit at a vegetable market in the city of Sweida just after 5 AM, a busy time for the merchants at the start of their day.

suicide bombing.jpg
Site of suicide bombings (Photo: Reuters)

The bomber drove through the market on a motorcycle and there detonated his explosives, the TV station said. A second attacker hit in another busy square in the city. Two other attackers blew themselves up as they were chased by security forces, the TV said.

The city of Sweida has largely been spared most of the violence that Syrian cities have witnessed in the years since the conflict started in 2011.

For the southern offensive, government forces redeployed troops from Sweida province last month to attack rebels and ISIS-affiliate militants in the nearby provinces of Daraa and Quneitra.

http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news...ael&utm_campaign=MiddayNewsletter+-+Recurring
 
Miten olisi yksi silta Mustallamerellä?

Pöh? Aluehan "äänesti liittymisestä" ja venäjän parlamentti hyväksyi pyynnön.

Teknisesti se on venäläisten mielestä osa venäjää. Syyrian pohjoisosa on Turkkilaistenkin mukaan osa Syyriaa, mutta silti sinne vedetään motari. Iso ero.
 
http://warisboring.com/will-the-syrian-kurds-team-up-with-bashar-al-assad-against-turkey/
Will the Syrian Kurds Team Up with Bashar Al Assad Against Turkey?
There's reason to believe they will
26241473562_8a5f8a2eae_o-e1532734677809-970x350.jpg


WIB POLITICS July 30, 2018 Paul Iddon

The Syrian Kurds have announced they are willing to work with the Syrian regime against their remaining opponent – the jihadist Haya’t Tahrir Al Sham group, which currently controls the country’s northwestern province of Idlib – in return for Damascus’s help against the Turkish occupiers of the nearby Syrian Kurdish exclave of Afrin.

Syrian president Bashar Al Assad has reconquered most of the country — with Russian and Iranian help, of course. His conquest of the southern region of Daraa in the summer of 2018 leaves only Idlib and the Syrian Kurdish territories, known as Rojava, outside of his control.

Al Assad has already said — in an interview with Russia Today on May 31, 2018 — that he is open to negotiations with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, but quickly added that he will resort to military force if the SDF fails.

The Kurds have already begun talks Damascus over the return of Syrian state employees to the country’s Tabqa Dam, which is currently under their control, and have ceased naming their local police security forces with the Kurdish name Asayish. Along with earlier reports that they began removing banners and flags depicting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s imprisoned leader Abdulla Ocalan, this signifies the Kurds are trying to make nice with Damascus ahead of negotiations.


Given frequent talk from U.S. president Donald Trump about pulling pro-Kurd U.S. forces out of Syria, the Kurds may well seek to work with Damascus to secure their interests. Furthermore, avoiding antagonizing Damascus would help them maintain control over their primary northeastern territories along with the Arab regions of Raqqa and large swaths of the eastern Deir Ez Zor province, the latter of which they Kurds seized during their offensives against ISIS.

“The YPG have an obvious incentive to explore working with the regime, given that the U.S. has signaled that it intends to leave Syria, and soon,” Aaron Stein, a senior resident fellow at The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, told War Is Boring. “The challenge, of course, will come when the two sides try and decide on a definition of autonomy for Kurdish held areas, and what regime return looks like in certain areas.”

“I also assume there will be challenges about command and control and how the YPG would fit into an Assad-backed grouping of militias,” he added. “Only time will tell, but a grand bargain is really the only way the YPG can try and maintain their war gains.”


Prof. Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and director of the Middle East Studies Department at the University of Oklahoma, said the Kurds might cooperate with Al Assad. “Cooperation between the [Syrian Arab Army] and YPG is a possibility,” Landis told War Is Boring. There has already “been an uptick in YPG operations around Afrin,” Landis added.

“The possible deal to be struck between the YPG and SAA is one of security,” he elaborated. “The YPG needs help from the SAA to protect the Kurds from Turkey’s military and the SAA need help ruling north Syria and policing against both rebel and ISIS attack.”

The possibility of an American withdrawal is also a key factor motivating the Kurds to reach a deal since they “need another military to take the place of the Americans should they decide to withdraw from Syria.”

“The SAA and Russian air force could play that role at the price of the PYD [ruling Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party] giving up much of its autonomy,” Landis concluded. “How much? We don’t know.”

Al Assad has strongly opposed Turkey’s military incursions into Syria. Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield beginning on Aug. 24, 2016 pushed ISIS out of a 60-mile wide swath of northwestern Syrian border territory separating Rojava’s main northeastern territories from the smaller, isolated Afrin. Turkey still retains forces in this area.

YPJ_fighters_Afrin_February_20181-1024x765.jpg
At top — Kurdish YPJ fighters in Afrin. Photo viw Wikipedia. Above — Kurdish YPG fighters. Photo via Flickr

In its second cross-border operation, Operation Olive Branch beginning in January 2018, Ankara invaded Afrin. The Turkish military has also established 12 so-called observational posts in Idlib as part of its deescalation agreement that is allowing Russia and Syria to sequence operations against opposition-held areas across the country.

“For now, Turkey has an incentive to work closely with Russia,” Stein explained. “However, Russia needs to balance its relationship with Assad and [Turkish president Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, and I think Assad is deemed more important. Therefore, I’d argue it’s beholden to Assad’s ability to sway Russia to pressure Turkey on its behalf. If Assad empowers the Kurds, Russia doesn’t have much of a choice but to follow.”

This implies that sometime in the future, rather than seeking to reconquer Rojava and the aforementioned SDF-controlled territories in Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor, Al Assad will support the SDF/YPG against Turkish forces in Afrin and possibly the Euphrates Shield zone, as well.

“The possibility of the YPG coming to terms with the Assad/Iran system around a deal where the YPG assists in the pro-Assad forces reconquering Idlib and then they conduct joint attacks against Turkey in the Euphrates Shield and/or Afrin zone is very plausible,” Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, told War Is Boring.

“The Assadists and PKK are deeply intertwined and have long been close allies,” he added. “The YPG’s tilt towards the Americans is the more anomalous part of this picture, and with the Americans drawing down normality is returning.”

“A U.S. withdrawal would finalize the transfer of this instrument they have built up, the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces, into the hands of the Assad-Iran-Russia coalition, who can use it as a governing body in the north-east and as shock troops for terrorist attacks and so on against Turkey.”

Orton noted that if the Turkish military chooses to “stand its ground” in those areas it currently controls in Syria, “it is not clear that the pro-Assad forces, even assisted by the YPG, can force Turkey out.”

He pointed out that the Russians recently managed to “neutralize Israel in Daraa” by convincing Tel Aviv to acquiesce to a regime takeover of the border region with the Golan Heights in return for a promise not to allow Iranian-backed militias into those areas. “That kind of political skill might well be brought to bear against Turkey.”

Compared to Daraa, however, Idlib “is more difficult,” Orton said. Any potential regime offensive could result in another enormous influx of refugees fleeing across the Turkish border. The United Nations anticipated that as many as 2.5 million people could be displaced, adding to Turkey’s already enormous refugee population.

“But the steadfastness of American allies in the face of a determined regime axis, and an absent America, has proven less than rock solid on nearly every occasion it has been tested so far, so the outcome is difficult to predict,” Orton concluded.
 
Kapinallislähteet epäilevät, että Assad aikoo hyökätä myös Idlibiin, Turkin tulitauko-tarkkailupisteistä huolimatta. Assad aikoo katsoa bluffaako Turkki.
Jonkin tason pokeria ja shakkia tuolla pelataan. Ja sinänsä mielenkiintoinen asetelma, että USA on Turkin NATO-kumppani, mutta samalla ollut halukas tukemaan kurdeja, Venäjä on olevinaan kavereita Turkin kanssa, mutta on myös Assadin tukija ja ilmeisesti halukas tekemään ase- ja öljydiilejä kurdien kanssa. Israel-Iran-akseli tuo oman lusikkansa soppaan. Äkkiseltään tuntuisi siltä, että Turkilla on tässä eniten hävittävää: laajempi sota olisi sille haitallinen niin välittömien sotatoimien seurausten kuin "valloitussodasta" todennäköisesti seuraavien länsisuhteiden murenemisen muodossa.
 
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...astana-on-verge-of-collapse-due-to-idlib.html

"There are indications that the Syrian army will launch an operation against rebel forces in Idlib in September, after completing operations in the south of the country in Daraa and Quneitra. The possibility of such an operation against Idlib, where more than 100,000 militants have amassed following rebel evacuations from all over Syria, has made Turkey nervous. "
 
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