https://war.obozrevatel.com/kovalen...re-v-chem-otlichie-i-chego-mozhno-ozhidat.htm
Kovalenko: Russian strikes on Ukraine in October - how they were different, and threat forecast
Alexander Kovalenko
Special Project
War
1.11.2023 12:00
4 minutes
11.4 t.
In October, Russian occupiers carried out attacks on the territory of Ukraine, using both Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones and missile weapons. The practice, it would seem, is already familiar, but still the shelling this month differed in a number of indicators from previous ones
. How? Let's figure it out together.
Throughout October, the Russians carried out attacks on Ukraine, primarily using the Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drone component, with missiles playing a secondary role. At the same time, UAV strikes did not set a record, which in a sense was predictable.
In turn, the missile strikes were also significantly different from the previous ones. First of all, this difference lay in the range of weapons used. And now more details.
Missile strikes
During October,
the Russian occupiers used primarily ballistic and aeroballistic missiles , as well as (more than in previous months)
Kh-59 guided missiles .
According to official information published in open sources, in October the following number of missiles were launched and intercepted by air defense systems in Ukraine:
5/4 – “Iskander-K”
7/0 – “Iskander-M”
16/13 – X-59
4/0 – P-800 "Onyx"
What first catches your eye is the
complete absence of components of sea- and air-launched cruise missiles , namely: the Caliber SLCM and the KRAB X-101/55/555. The last time the Kh-101/55/555 was used was on September 21, and the Caliber was used on September 25.
In addition, it is worth noting
the increased intensity of use of the X-59 , which was not used so often previously.
This may indicate that the Russian occupiers
are meticulously accumulating Kh-101/55/555 cruise missiles and Kalibr SLCMs to strike energy infrastructure - given their range of destruction, covering the entire territory of Ukraine, but the low effectiveness of air defense penetration and high the percentage of their turnovers due to interceptions during kicks.
To maintain a stable level of terror and strikes in the middle affected zone (up to 500 km), ballistic and aeroballistic missiles are used, some of which are
not intercepted in most regions of Ukraine due to the lack of necessary means of destruction .
In addition, these strikes confirm previously published information about the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex to produce 9M723, 9M728 missiles and other modifications of the Iskander subgroup, namely: an
average of 2-3 missiles per week.
In fact, a month's production of these missiles was used in October.
Shahed-131/136
Many were confident that a new record for Shahed-131/136 raids would be set in October, although I expressed skepticism on this issue. This is largely due to the fact that, according to available information, Iran
's average monthly production of these kamikaze drones is still around 250 units per month . At the same time,
Russia was never able to launch mass serial production of this product , which also excluded the growth of its use without prior accumulation.
As a result, in October Russia applied it to Ukraine... and there is a nuance here. The fact is that on the evening of September 30, 30 Shahed-131/136 were launched, which already on the night of October 1 were shot down in the amount of 16 units. In this case, I would start from the fact that the raid itself was carried out on September 30, but in official statistics it was counted as a result on the morning of October 1, and therefore according to Shahed-131/136 we will have two values - taking into account the raid and the number of people shot down as of the last day of September and the first day of October.
Thus,
in October, a raid was carried out on Ukraine and the destruction of 253 (283)/229 (213) Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones . It is worth noting that this is less than the record figure for September - 491 (521), and even for May - 413, but exceeds the June (197), July (246) and August (167) figures.
One cannot ignore the fact that since mid-October,
the number of drones in raid groups has decreased by half . After the 12th, there were no raids of more than 14 units, and small groups prevailed.
This all indicates that
Russia is now accumulating the potential of Shahed-131/136, taking into account the need for them during the period when the temperature drops below 0 ° C for maximum terrorist effect on the energy infrastructure of our country . In addition, this confirms the absence in Russia itself of mass serial production of this type of kamikaze drones.
Conclusions and threats in the future
It is obvious that Russia is preparing for attacks on Ukraine with both missile and drone components in winter or when temperatures drop below 0 ° C.
The aggressor country cannot afford regular strikes with cruise missiles in quantities that ensure a high percentage of air defense breakthrough, and
therefore accumulates them to plan systematic strikes : either several dozen (from 40 to 60), but with long pauses, or limited ammunition (in on average 10-15), but with greater frequency.
In turn, the accumulation of kamikaze drones can be 50 +/- 10-20%, taking into account the production increase, which will allow the aggressor from the end of December 2023 to mid-late January 2024 to repeat at least the May figure.
The material was published as part of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance group .
HURR:
has strengthened the medium and long range OP
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