Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Tuore arvio venäläisten sotilaiden määrästä Ukrainassa:

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the #Russian forces in #Ukraine currently consist of 462,000 military and 35,000 National Guard troops, responsible for the functioning of the occupation regime.

This number of troops allows the Russians to carry out rotation - to withdraw units and subdivisions and bring them to the front line.


 
Tämä on kohta pari viikkoa vanha arvio / analyysi, mutta en muista nähneeni tätä täällä aikaisemmin. Ukrainalainen vishun_military OSINT-ryhmä arvioi ryssän hävittäjien ja helikopterien määriä Krimillä, numerot tekstin mukaan joulukuun 2023 alusta (julkaistu 28.12.2023):

https://t.me/vishun_military/3974

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Russian aviation group in Crimea. The enemy uses 7 main and 4 auxiliary airfields to deploy aircraft on its territory .

As of the beginning of December, it included:

55 fighters and 54 helicopters.

Depending on the type:


Aircraft:
13 Su-24
26 Su-27/30
2 MiG-29
14 Su-25


Helicopters:
30 Mi-8
6 Mi-24
13 Mi-28/Mi-24
11 Ka-52


@vishun_military

t.me/vishun_military/3974
45.1Kviewsedited Dec 28, 2023 at 21:07

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Konetyyppien perusteella vaikuttaisi siltä että Krimin sotilaslentotukikohdat ovat ryssän Naval Aviation -ilmavoimien käytössä - tai ainakin sinne on sijoitettu selvästi vanhempia hävittäjiä kuin mitä ryssän varsinaisilla ilmavoimilla (Aerospace Forces).

Kopioin kuvan merkinnät listaksi, koska kuvan merkinnät eivät täsmää tuon artikkelin tekstin listan kanssa (lista on kenties tiivistetympi ilmaisu tästä, tosin ainakin MiG-31BM puuttuu artikkelin listasta kokonaan):

Aircraft:
13 Su-24M
10 Su-25SM (voisiko olla myös SM3?)
11 Su-30SM
2 MiG-29
9 Su-27/30
4 MiG-31BM
4 Su-25
6 Su-30


Helicopters:
4_Mi-28
30 Mi-8/17
11 Ka-52
4 Mi-24/35

5 Mi-28 or Mi-24/35
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Valtavasti kalustoa... Joku on laskenut että Ukraina häviää sodan ja romaniasta tulee uusi etulinja Puolan kanssa?

Niin tai sitten ovat NATOn etulinjan maa, sodan osapuolen naapuri, jonka ilmatilaan on jo ohjuksia lentänyt, Mustanmeren rantavaltio ja Moldovan rajanaapuri, jossa ryssäläinen mielikuvitusvaltio ja yksi maailman pahimmista salakuljetusongelmista.

Mustanmeren valvontaa, ukrainalaisten kouluttamista ja sota-avun logistiikkaa tehdään suurelta osin Romaniasta. Syytäkin varustautua.
 
Tämä Ukrainan mobilisaatio-ongelma on kyllä hankala käsittää. Kuten NATO:n euroopan joukkojen entinen komentaja Ben Hodges toteaa, se aiheuttaa jo luotettavuusongelmia lännen silmissä. Muuten hän peräänkuuluttaa mm. NATO:lta kovempia otteita esim.ohjustorjunnassa.

I think this hurts the credibility of Ukraine. They're asking for things from the West, but yet they're not willing to fix their manning system so that men and women who should be serving return home to serve.

Lähde:https://news.err.ee/1609215794/gen-...ukraine-encourages-iran-north-korea-and-china

Tästä on pakko olla samaa mieltä ja huolta olen tästä jo pitkään kantanut.

Toivottavasti tulee muutos.
 
Tottakai tuota pitää tukkia, mutta se pitää suhteuttaa siihen mitä oli ennen sotaa. Tuo arvo saattoi tulla parissa suuressa konttilaivassa yhden viikon aikana ja niitä tuli jatkuvasti ryssien satamiin, nyt kaikki salakuljetetaan milloin mistäkin ja seassa on varmasti B-luokan tavaraa sekä tahallisesti sabotoituja osia.

Eli jos kaikki vienti USA:sta on saatu 200 miljoonaan kuukaudessa niin siitä pitää vain nakertaa summaa pienemmäksi rajoja sulkemalla ja vientiä vaikeuttamalla, ei se nousevalla käyrällä varmasti ole.
 
Tatarigami_UA ajatuksia ryssän uudesta talvihyökkäyksestä:

I've found a few articles, including one from Bild, suggesting that the Russian Winter Offensive has already failed. However, based on my observations, Russian forces continue to increase troop concentrations in both the Kupyansk and Bakhmut areas. They will fail, but not yet


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Viestin kommenteissa oli kysymys: Any assessment of the quality of these troops?

Johon Tatarigami_UA vastasi näin: The quality of Russian recruits continues to drop, and they even fill their "elite" units with 45+ y.o unfit guys, so that on paper they meet quota. However, there are a lot of them, and they have an artillery advantage, as well as a drone advantage in some areas of the frontline
 
Tottakai tuota pitää tukkia, mutta se pitää suhteuttaa siihen mitä oli ennen sotaa. Tuo arvo saattoi tulla parissa suuressa konttilaivassa yhden viikon aikana ja niitä tuli jatkuvasti ryssien satamiin, nyt kaikki salakuljetetaan milloin mistäkin ja seassa on varmasti B-luokan tavaraa sekä tahallisesti sabotoituja osia.

Eli jos kaikki vienti USA:sta on saatu 200 miljoonaan kuukaudessa
niin siitä pitää vain nakertaa summaa pienemmäksi rajoja sulkemalla ja vientiä vaikeuttamalla, ei se nousevalla käyrällä varmasti ole.
Ei tämä aivan noin yksinkertaista ole.

"Russia each month imports billions of dollars in technology for its war effort, evading Western sanctions by routing the trade through China, NATO member Turkey and other countries, according to a new report by the KSE Institute, a think tank at the Kyiv School of Economics, to which Newsweek was given exclusive access."

 

Lainaan artikkelin tekstin spoilerin taakse jos joku haluaa lukea sen (artikkeli julkaistu 11.1.2024):

https://www.ft.com/content/96c4f3f8...SEGMENTIDdcee0941-6e02-a9de-5643-b340f3ef2e3a

Moscow imports a third of battlefield tech from western companies

Ukrainian officials find US and European components in Russian equipment

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Components found include semiconductors, automotive parts and bearings © Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Chris Cook in London

4 HOURS AGO

Russia obtained at least one-third of its foreign-sourced critical battlefield components from companies based in the US and its allies last year — in large part because of outsourced production facilities in states that apply weaker export controls.

These goods — worth a total of $7.3bn — were mainly manufactured in countries that are not part of the US-led export-control coalition, according to an analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics. The largest share of these goods — worth around $1.9bn — were produced in China.

The 485 types of component in the analysis include semiconductors, computer parts, electronics, automotive components and bearings. The list relies on analysis of components found by Ukrainian officials in Russian equipment on the battlefield.

The analysis accounts for $22bn of Russian imports over the first nine months of 2023 and highlights how outsourced production can make it easier for Russia to buy controlled goods from countries whose customs officers will not apply checks at the border.

The data also shows the critical role of China in Russia’s supply networks, including goods made by non-coalition companies. A majority of the goods on the list were made in the country, which has been joining an ever-deepening partnership with Moscow.

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The US, EU and its allies are tied up in Russia's battlefield component supply chain​

Origin of Russian imports of critical battlefield components​

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Olena Bilousova, a senior researcher at KSE, said: “It’s been a normal business strategy for years for western technology companies to have manufacturing facilities across Asia. But these factories need to be made to comply with the same strength of export controls as they would at home.”

The US is the only country to insist that goods made in a third country may potentially be covered by domestic controls. The “foreign-direct product regulations” (FDPR) are extraterritorial and can cover goods made in third countries if content, software or technology originating in the US has been involved in their production.

FDPR provisions apply even if the producer is not American. The US dominance of semiconductor technology means the FDPR has particular impact on this sector.

However, Emily Kilcrease, a sanctions expert at the Centre for a New American Security, said that applying the FDPR is difficult. It “is necessarily one of the tougher mechanisms to use just because the activity is, by definition, not happening at home. China is one of our more difficult enforcement environments”.

Data reviewed by the Financial Times shows the goods were sold to Russia via distributors and intermediaries. Kevin Wolf, a partner at Akin law firm in Washington and a former assistant commerce secretary, said that if the US companies had no knowledge of the eventual export to Russia and did not cause it, they would not contravene American law.

But the US adding “distributors and other middlemen” to its sanctions list would be “a very effective way of addressing diversion of semiconductors and other items”, he said. “This would prohibit shipments to the listed entities by any company — even if the whole transaction happens outside the US.”

A US Treasury official also drew attention to a new executive order issued in December that targets banks involved in such trade, which they hoped would disrupt these networks. Washington has given notice that it could target institutions “determined to have conducted or facilitated any significant transaction, or provided any service, involving Russia’s military industrial base”.

The KSE data suggests that Russia has been importing rising volumes of products made by some western producers — such as Analog Devices, a US-based chipmaker. Russian imports of its goods rose from $123mn in 2021 to $269mn in the first nine months of 2023. Only $20mn of the Analog chips entering Russia in 2023 were listed in filings as made in the US, $93mn were made in China and $53mn in Malaysia.

Analog chips are listed by the Ukrainian government’s sanctions body as having been recovered from a variety of Russian arms. Its components have been found inside the rockets of the 9M544 Tornado-S, a multiple-launch rocket launcher, as well the Russian-built versions of the Iranian Mohajer-6 and Shahed drones.

Analog told the FT that it had ceased all sales into Russia and Belarus, “instructed all of our distributors to halt shipments of our products into these regions” and that “any post-sanctions shipment into these regions is a direct violation of our policy and the result of an unauthorised resale or diversion of ADI products”.
 
Saako joku tämän spoilerin taakse, miljardin edestä aseita olisi vähän niinkuin hukassa. Kiinnostaisi tietää tarkempi sisältö.

 
Saako joku tämän spoilerin taakse, miljardin edestä aseita olisi vähän niinkuin hukassa. Kiinnostaisi tietää tarkempi sisältö.


U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Was Poorly Tracked, Pentagon Report Concludes​


The Defense Department’s inspector general found that American defense officials and diplomats in Washington and Europe had failed to quickly or fully account for all of nearly 40,000 weapons sent to Ukraine.

Jan. 11, 2024Updated 10:41 a.m. ET

More than $1 billion worth of shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones and night-vision devices that the United States has sent to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by American officials, a new Pentagon report concludes, raising concerns they could be stolen or smuggled at a time Congress is debating whether to send more military aid to Kyiv.

The report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, released on Thursday, offers no evidence that any of the weapons have been misused after being shipped to a U.S. military logistics hub in Poland or sent onward to Ukraine’s battlefields.

“It was beyond the scope of our evaluation to determine whether there has been diversion of such assistance,” the report stated.
But it found that American defense officials and diplomats in Washington and Europe had failed to quickly or fully account for nearly 40,000 weapons that by law should have been closely monitored because their sensitive technology and relatively small size makes them attractive bounty for arms smugglers.

The report was sent to Congress on Wednesday and a copy of it was provided to The New York Times. The Pentagon’s inspector general released a redacted version of it on Thursday.

The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government databases “may increase the risk of theft or diversion,” the report found.

Even with better methods in place, it concluded, tracking additional materiel sent to Ukraine will “be difficult as the inventory continues to change, and accuracy and completeness will likely only become more difficult over time.”

The number of the weapons reviewed in the report represents only a small fraction of about $50 billion in military equipment that the United States has sent Ukraine since 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region. Most of the weapons that have been delivered so far — including tanks, air-defense systems, artillery launchers and ammunition — were pledged after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Still, the Pentagon investigation offers a first glimpse of efforts to account for the most high-risk tools of American military might that have been rushed to Ukraine in the last two years. An increasing number of lawmakers, skeptical of the costs of being Ukraine’s single largest military benefactor, are resisting sending more aid to Kyiv and have demanded the oversight.

The report did not detail exactly how many of the 39,139 high-risk pieces of materiel that were given to Ukraine in the years before and after the invasion were considered “delinquent” but it put the potential loss at about $1 billion of the total $1.69 billion worth of the weapons that had been sent.

As of last June, the latest data available, the United States had given Ukraine more than 10,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, 2,500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles and about 750 Kamikaze Switchblade drones, 430 medium-range air-to-air missiles and 23,000 night vision devices.

Dangerous combat conditions made it largely impossible for Defense Department officials to travel to the front lines to ensure the weapons were being used as intended, according to Pentagon and State Department officials responsible for tracking them.

The required accounting procedures “are not practical in a dynamic and hostile wartime environment,” Alexandra N. Baker, the acting undersecretary of defense for policy, wrote in a Nov. 15 response to an earlier draft of the report.

She also said there were not enough to Defense Department employees at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv to easily track all of the most sensitive weapons and equipment, which she said currently total more than 50,000 items in Ukraine “and growing.”

It “is beyond the capacity of the limited D.O.D. personnel in country to physically inventory, even if access were unrestricted,” Ms. Baker wrote in her response, a copy of which was included in the report.

Lara Jakes, based in Rome, reports on diplomatic and military efforts by the West to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. She has been a journalist for nearly 30 years. More about Lara Jakes
 
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