IT-nörtti
Luutnantti
= 99,71%
Ukrainan konflikti/sota
OXPAHA
Kenraali
Olitko hereillä helmikuussa -22?
Nick Kane
Eversti
A Forum of support for Russian volunteers took place in Kyiv, organized by 24.02 Foundation. This charity foundation unites the wives and friends of Russian volunteers who fight on Ukrainian side. One of its tasks is to provide confidentiality and transparency of passing aid to volunteers.Representatives of Freedom to Russia Legion and Siberian Battalion were among the Forum's participants.The participants were addressed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, via video.A Memorandum of support for Russian volunteers who fight against Putin's regime was presented at the event. Its authors call on oppositioners who don't support the Kremlin's policy to help Russian combat units within the AFU."Right now the volunteers risk their lives daily for free Russia, for the country's future, for a decent life in a truly great (not by size but by quality of life) state, for the principles of humanity, democracy and freedom of speech. Our goal is the triumph of justice and law in free Russia. Our task is victory over the Kremlin's dictatorial regime, restoration of Ukraine and Russia's legal borders to the state of 1991, compensation for Ukraine for the evil and destruction that has been committed, conducting international trial over those who initiated this war of conquest", the Memorandum says.The activists called to provide financial, informational and humanitarian aid to the military and their families. Russians can also join the ranks of volunteers because "Victory of Ukraine is the pre-requisite of destroying the Putin's regime."
: Yevgenia Chirikova speaking at the Forum. Brave words. Will we see a similar statement from Yulia Navalnaya?
linkki
google käännettynä:
Kiovassa järjestettiin 24.02 säätiön järjestämä venäläisten vapaaehtoisten tukifoorumi. Tämä hyväntekeväisyyssäätiö yhdistää Ukrainan puolella taistelevien venäläisten vapaaehtoisten vaimoja ja ystäviä. Yksi sen tehtävistä on tarjota luottamuksellisuutta ja läpinäkyvyyttä vapaaehtoisille avun välittämisessä. Foorumin osallistujien joukossa olivat Freedom to Russia -legionin ja Siperian pataljoonan edustajat. Ukrainan puolustustiedustelupalvelun päällikkö Kyrylo Budanov puhui osallistujille videon välityksellä. Tilaisuudessa esiteltiin tukimuistio venäläisille vapaaehtoisille, jotka taistelevat Putinin hallintoa vastaan. Sen laatijat kutsuvat oppositiota, jotka eivät tue Kremlin politiikkaa, auttamaan venäläisiä taisteluyksiköitä AFU:n sisällä. "Tällä hetkellä vapaaehtoiset vaarantavat henkensä päivittäin vapaan Venäjän puolesta, maan tulevaisuuden puolesta, ihmisarvoisen elämän puolesta todella suuressa (ei koon vaan elämänlaadun) valtiossa, inhimillisyyden, demokratian ja sananvapauden periaatteiden puolesta. Tavoitteemme on oikeuden ja lain voitto vapaalla Venäjällä Tehtävämme on voitto Kremlin diktatuurihallinnosta, Ukrainan ja Venäjän laillisten rajojen palauttaminen vuoden 1991 valtiolle, korvaus Ukrainalle tehdystä pahuudesta ja tuhosta, johtaminen kansainvälinen oikeudenkäynti niitä vastaan, jotka aloittivat tämän valloitussodan", muistiossa sanotaan. Aktivistit kutsuivat toimittamaan taloudellista, tiedotusta ja humanitaarista apua armeijalle ja heidän perheilleen. Myös venäläiset voivat liittyä vapaaehtoisten joukkoon, koska "Ukrainan voitto on Putinin hallinnon tuhoamisen edellytys".
: Jevgenia Chirikova puhumassa foorumilla. Rohkeita sanoja. Näemmekö samanlaisen lausunnon Julia Navalnajalta?
: Yevgenia Chirikova speaking at the Forum. Brave words. Will we see a similar statement from Yulia Navalnaya?
linkki
google käännettynä:
Kiovassa järjestettiin 24.02 säätiön järjestämä venäläisten vapaaehtoisten tukifoorumi. Tämä hyväntekeväisyyssäätiö yhdistää Ukrainan puolella taistelevien venäläisten vapaaehtoisten vaimoja ja ystäviä. Yksi sen tehtävistä on tarjota luottamuksellisuutta ja läpinäkyvyyttä vapaaehtoisille avun välittämisessä. Foorumin osallistujien joukossa olivat Freedom to Russia -legionin ja Siperian pataljoonan edustajat. Ukrainan puolustustiedustelupalvelun päällikkö Kyrylo Budanov puhui osallistujille videon välityksellä. Tilaisuudessa esiteltiin tukimuistio venäläisille vapaaehtoisille, jotka taistelevat Putinin hallintoa vastaan. Sen laatijat kutsuvat oppositiota, jotka eivät tue Kremlin politiikkaa, auttamaan venäläisiä taisteluyksiköitä AFU:n sisällä. "Tällä hetkellä vapaaehtoiset vaarantavat henkensä päivittäin vapaan Venäjän puolesta, maan tulevaisuuden puolesta, ihmisarvoisen elämän puolesta todella suuressa (ei koon vaan elämänlaadun) valtiossa, inhimillisyyden, demokratian ja sananvapauden periaatteiden puolesta. Tavoitteemme on oikeuden ja lain voitto vapaalla Venäjällä Tehtävämme on voitto Kremlin diktatuurihallinnosta, Ukrainan ja Venäjän laillisten rajojen palauttaminen vuoden 1991 valtiolle, korvaus Ukrainalle tehdystä pahuudesta ja tuhosta, johtaminen kansainvälinen oikeudenkäynti niitä vastaan, jotka aloittivat tämän valloitussodan", muistiossa sanotaan. Aktivistit kutsuivat toimittamaan taloudellista, tiedotusta ja humanitaarista apua armeijalle ja heidän perheilleen. Myös venäläiset voivat liittyä vapaaehtoisten joukkoon, koska "Ukrainan voitto on Putinin hallinnon tuhoamisen edellytys".
: Jevgenia Chirikova puhumassa foorumilla. Rohkeita sanoja. Näemmekö samanlaisen lausunnon Julia Navalnajalta?
Tarkoittanet palvelimia ja muita tietoteknisiä laitteita, niin pienimuotoisemmassakin teollisuudessa ne on aina kahdennettu ns. dual-site klusterointi. Pitäisi aika tarkoin tietää, missä palvelinsalit ovat osuakseen. Datat on yleensä varmistettu kolmannelle saitille backup-storageen. Ei ole ameriikan temppu rakentaa systeemejä uusiksi noista backupeista. Tai oikeastaan se on just ameriikan temppu.
Pitää vaan olla suunnitelmat disaster recoveryyn, varata HW ja testata eri skenaariot. Parempi varmaan kuitenkin tuollainen tislaamo posauttaa ja käräyttää pari hehtaaria tehdas alueelta. Hankalampi se on korjata.
Antares
Respected Leader
Pari päivää vanha uutinen Venäjän junakaluston vaikeuksista joita Stanimir Dobrev kommentoi näin:
The number of Russian Railways locomotives which are in need of urgent repair and thus caused delays rose 2,4 times in 2023 to 42 600.
The number of delays caused by a lack of a train crew was down 15,7 to 3 700.
Q4 2023 was heavily impacted by this.
At present it doesn't seem possible to repair the locomotives at a pace fast enough to reduce the delays due to a shortage of repair crews and spare parts.
Also the repair depots' equipment used for repairs is also in a poor state due to years of under-investment.
Finally a large portion of the locomotives that are in need of repair are diesel ТЭ116/ТЭ116У which were produced in Luhansk and use a lot of components that are produced in Ukraine and thus repair is even more difficult.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6564389
03/15/2024, 01:07
-
Ketjun viimeiseen viestiin tullut kommentti: And more modern locomotives use power electronics which are mostly imported and thus hard to replace. And they can't just be fixed with a hammer like the old locomotives were, and the old (Soviet era) locomotives are just getting too old.
Johon Stanimir Dobrev vastasi näin: And this is on top of them being unable to match the wear and tear of the rolling stock.
Johon alkuperäinen kommentoija vastasi näin: You know what's going to make this even better? Having to ship more gasoline/diesel around the country to rebalance refinery capacity.
Johon Stanimir Dobrev vastasi näin: They have the numbers, domestic transport of petroleum and petroleum distillates adds 4 days of extra travel compared to just moving it to export: (hän viittaa omaan 6.3.2024 julkaistuun ketjuunsa)
Ru business news 06/Mar/2024:
Rerouting Russian gasoline exports to the import market will have implications on the railway system. It will lower throughput as turnover for railway cars for exports is 17,6 days vs 21,8 days for domestic. LÄHDE
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6552489
03/05/2024
The number of Russian Railways locomotives which are in need of urgent repair and thus caused delays rose 2,4 times in 2023 to 42 600.
The number of delays caused by a lack of a train crew was down 15,7 to 3 700.
Q4 2023 was heavily impacted by this.
At present it doesn't seem possible to repair the locomotives at a pace fast enough to reduce the delays due to a shortage of repair crews and spare parts.
Also the repair depots' equipment used for repairs is also in a poor state due to years of under-investment.
Finally a large portion of the locomotives that are in need of repair are diesel ТЭ116/ТЭ116У which were produced in Luhansk and use a lot of components that are produced in Ukraine and thus repair is even more difficult.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6564389
03/15/2024, 01:07
Locomotives don't pull
The situation with their readiness to work has deteriorated sharply
03/15/2024, 01:07
51K3 min.7
Expand to full screen
Photo: Alexander Miridonov, Kommersant
The number of trains suspended due to problems with locomotives increased noticeably in 2023, as follows from the disclosure of information by Russian Railways on Form 9g-8. First of all, this concerns the number of trains delayed due to reason 22 - “the absence or waiting of the carrier’s locomotive due to the lack of maintenance of the operating fleet of locomotives to the established plan for types of traffic.” It increased 2.4 times, to 42.6 thousand.
The problem of the absence or waiting of locomotive crews (reason 23), which was repeatedly emphasized by market participants as extremely significant, did not manifest itself so acutely in 2023: the number of downtime for this reason decreased by 15.7%, to 3.7 thousand.
Due to the large volume of locomotive repairs and their long stay with service companies, the ability to remove cargo is reduced, as noted by Russian Railways.
“JSC Russian Railways forms a transportation plan based on a certain level of technical readiness of locomotives, that is, the proportion of time when they should be in working condition,” the monopoly reports. “However, for reasons beyond the company’s control, this indicator is not met.” Russian Railways adds that the situation worsened especially strongly in the fourth quarter of 2023.
In an interview with Kommersant, Deputy General Director of Russian Railways Alexey Shilo noted that due to systemic problems in the maintenance of locomotives, due to the fault of service companies, it was not possible to transport about 2 million tons of cargo at the Eastern training ground, although the problems with import substitution and personnel at enterprises are quite objective ( see. “Kommersant” dated March 4 ). IPEM Deputy Director Vladimir Savchuk says that the shortage of personnel, especially highly qualified personnel, remains an important factor, primarily in the Far East, where employees “easily move to other network companies and large industrial enterprises.”
The LocoTech company (which provides locomotive servicing) explains that it took control of the service business more than ten years ago.
“During this time, both the fleet itself and the equipment maintenance standards have changed,” the company says. “Under previous conditions, it was not possible to meet the planned locomotive reliability indicators laid down in our main agreement with the customer.”
Over the past two years, regulatory and technical documentation, standards for the consumption of material and technical resources, the number of personnel for each type of repair and series of locomotives have been revised, LokoTech says. “Now, for certain types of maintenance, we must change critical inventory items regardless of their condition,” the company notes. “For example, brushes of electrical devices, the wear of which gave us a large percentage of failures, or brake pads, the load on which has increased due to increased weight of trains. Preventive replacement of these items should reduce the number of malfunctions that occur.” The company adds that the results of the experiment will be summed up in the second half of the year.
According to Rollingstock Agency editor-in-chief Sergei Belov, there are several reasons for problems with the service. Firstly, there is significant wear and tear on the equipment in repair depots, which has been accumulating for decades. Secondly, a significant part of the fleet consists of mainline diesel locomotives of the TE116/TE116U platform, which were produced in Lugansk and contain a significant share of the component base produced in Ukraine. The first locomotives of the modern series also had a decent import component. Against the backdrop of recent events, it was necessary to create analogues, develop relevant industries, develop new units - this is time and people. According to the latter, thirdly, there is the most acute shortage.
President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure Pavel Ivankin notes that, based on the forecasts of Russian Railways, in 2024 more than twenty trains every day will not be provided with locomotive traction due to low-quality routine maintenance. He believes that the situation will not improve in the near future, since it seems that Russian Railways has exhausted its ability to influence locomotive suppliers to speed up repairs.
-
Natalya Skorlygina
51K3 min.7
Locomotives don't pull
The situation with their readiness to work has deteriorated sharply
From the reports of JSC Russian Railways it follows that the monopoly has difficulties with servicing locomotives: the number of trains suspended due to “under-maintenance of the locomotive fleet” more than doubled in 2023. JSC Russian Railways confirms the presence of problems. Service companies say they have begun proactively replacing critical parts, which should reduce the number of malfunctions. Analysts note a shortage of components and personnel among service organizations and do not see prospects for a quick improvement in the situation.Expand to full screen
Photo: Alexander Miridonov, Kommersant
The number of trains suspended due to problems with locomotives increased noticeably in 2023, as follows from the disclosure of information by Russian Railways on Form 9g-8. First of all, this concerns the number of trains delayed due to reason 22 - “the absence or waiting of the carrier’s locomotive due to the lack of maintenance of the operating fleet of locomotives to the established plan for types of traffic.” It increased 2.4 times, to 42.6 thousand.
The problem of the absence or waiting of locomotive crews (reason 23), which was repeatedly emphasized by market participants as extremely significant, did not manifest itself so acutely in 2023: the number of downtime for this reason decreased by 15.7%, to 3.7 thousand.
Due to the large volume of locomotive repairs and their long stay with service companies, the ability to remove cargo is reduced, as noted by Russian Railways.
“JSC Russian Railways forms a transportation plan based on a certain level of technical readiness of locomotives, that is, the proportion of time when they should be in working condition,” the monopoly reports. “However, for reasons beyond the company’s control, this indicator is not met.” Russian Railways adds that the situation worsened especially strongly in the fourth quarter of 2023.
In an interview with Kommersant, Deputy General Director of Russian Railways Alexey Shilo noted that due to systemic problems in the maintenance of locomotives, due to the fault of service companies, it was not possible to transport about 2 million tons of cargo at the Eastern training ground, although the problems with import substitution and personnel at enterprises are quite objective ( see. “Kommersant” dated March 4 ). IPEM Deputy Director Vladimir Savchuk says that the shortage of personnel, especially highly qualified personnel, remains an important factor, primarily in the Far East, where employees “easily move to other network companies and large industrial enterprises.”
The LocoTech company (which provides locomotive servicing) explains that it took control of the service business more than ten years ago.
“During this time, both the fleet itself and the equipment maintenance standards have changed,” the company says. “Under previous conditions, it was not possible to meet the planned locomotive reliability indicators laid down in our main agreement with the customer.”
Over the past two years, regulatory and technical documentation, standards for the consumption of material and technical resources, the number of personnel for each type of repair and series of locomotives have been revised, LokoTech says. “Now, for certain types of maintenance, we must change critical inventory items regardless of their condition,” the company notes. “For example, brushes of electrical devices, the wear of which gave us a large percentage of failures, or brake pads, the load on which has increased due to increased weight of trains. Preventive replacement of these items should reduce the number of malfunctions that occur.” The company adds that the results of the experiment will be summed up in the second half of the year.
According to Rollingstock Agency editor-in-chief Sergei Belov, there are several reasons for problems with the service. Firstly, there is significant wear and tear on the equipment in repair depots, which has been accumulating for decades. Secondly, a significant part of the fleet consists of mainline diesel locomotives of the TE116/TE116U platform, which were produced in Lugansk and contain a significant share of the component base produced in Ukraine. The first locomotives of the modern series also had a decent import component. Against the backdrop of recent events, it was necessary to create analogues, develop relevant industries, develop new units - this is time and people. According to the latter, thirdly, there is the most acute shortage.
President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure Pavel Ivankin notes that, based on the forecasts of Russian Railways, in 2024 more than twenty trains every day will not be provided with locomotive traction due to low-quality routine maintenance. He believes that the situation will not improve in the near future, since it seems that Russian Railways has exhausted its ability to influence locomotive suppliers to speed up repairs.
-
Natalya Skorlygina
-
Ketjun viimeiseen viestiin tullut kommentti: And more modern locomotives use power electronics which are mostly imported and thus hard to replace. And they can't just be fixed with a hammer like the old locomotives were, and the old (Soviet era) locomotives are just getting too old.
Johon Stanimir Dobrev vastasi näin: And this is on top of them being unable to match the wear and tear of the rolling stock.
Johon alkuperäinen kommentoija vastasi näin: You know what's going to make this even better? Having to ship more gasoline/diesel around the country to rebalance refinery capacity.
Johon Stanimir Dobrev vastasi näin: They have the numbers, domestic transport of petroleum and petroleum distillates adds 4 days of extra travel compared to just moving it to export: (hän viittaa omaan 6.3.2024 julkaistuun ketjuunsa)
Ru business news 06/Mar/2024:
Rerouting Russian gasoline exports to the import market will have implications on the railway system. It will lower throughput as turnover for railway cars for exports is 17,6 days vs 21,8 days for domestic. LÄHDE
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6552489
03/05/2024
Gasoline export embargo could disrupt rail logistics
03/05/2024, 00:48
54K4 min.4
Photo: Alexey Smagin, Kommersant
The resumption of the ban on gasoline exports could cause additional complications in the market for rail transportation of petroleum products, the Operators Information Center (OIC) told Kommersant. The ban will lead to a reorientation of gasoline transportation to the domestic market.
ISC experts note that car turnover on export routes is significantly lower than on domestic routes (17.6 days versus 21.8), which is explained by the greater technology of export transportation and the high share of route shipments (16% versus 1%). In addition, when delivering to the domestic market, the wagon remains unloaded on average 56% longer than in export transportation. “As a result, one domestic flight requires 4.2 days more time than an export flight,” explains the ICO, adding that sometimes this figure can exceed five days.
At the end of 2023, gasoline accounted for about 17% of oil cargo transportation by rail, 75% of their volume was domestic, and 17% was exported.
ICO experts believe that domestic demand may “not accept the entire flow of exported gasoline,” and the shortage of tanks will not allow exporting the same volume with increased turnover.
According to their estimates, the shortage of tanks will lead to the non-export of 3.2 thousand tons of gasoline per day. But even with replenishment of the fleet, the problem cannot be solved, since if the network is clogged, it will only lead to a further increase in car turnover, the ICO believes.
Experts believe it is necessary to increase the priority of domestic gasoline transportation. The transfer of petroleum products and LPG to a higher priority category is currently being discussed, however, according to Kommersant’s information, a decision has not yet been made.
SOZHT Executive Director Igor Sankovsky agrees with the conclusions of the ICO. “We believe that the ban on the export of gasoline will lead to an increase in the turnover of tank cars due to an increase in the transportation time of petroleum products on the domestic market,” he notes, “as less or complete absence of routing will affect a significant number of recipients, as opposed to a limited number of ports.”
The increase in tank car turnover will also be affected by the fact that the minimum sales volumes of diesel fuel at exchange trading have been increased - from 12.5% to 16%, clarifies Mr. Sankovsky. “This means that, according to working estimates, for sales on the domestic market, 0.5 million tons of cargo per year will need to be “removed” from the pipe,” he explains. “And the increase in shipments of petroleum products through exchange trading significantly increases the downtime at unloading.” Up to 75–80% of tanks idle for unloading are tanks with exchange-traded petroleum products, Mr. Sankovsky emphasizes. “Therefore, in general, we can expect a decrease in supply of tanks and an aggravation of their shortage,” he sums up.
JSC Russian Railways, however, does not expect a significant impact of the ban on gasoline exports on the network.
“Taking into account the expected reorientation of product supplies to the domestic market, a significant reduction in the network-wide volume of gasoline transportation is not expected after the government of the Russian Federation resumes regulatory measures,” the monopoly says, noting that, for its part, it is taking measures for the unconditional export of the entire volume required for transportation oil cargo.
As JSC Russian Railways believes, the existing fleet of tanks is “more than enough to organize both domestic and export transportation.” “In February, almost 18 thousand oil and gasoline tanks stood idle on non-public tracks without operations every day,” the company notes. The reliability of gasoline delivery for the needs of domestic Russian consumers remains at a consistently high level, they say, this figure reaches 96.5% this year.
At the same time, JSC Russian Railways notes a long period of idle time for tanks in the queue for unloading at oil depots, mainly among enterprises in the south of the country. “In addition, due to delays in the delivery of the tanker fleet, cases of untimely unloading of petroleum products by operators of marine terminals in the Far East are also recorded,” the company says. “This situation leads to the use of wagons by oil companies as “warehouses on wheels,” which also negatively affects to ensure subsequent supply of empty rolling stock for loading.” The Ministry of Energy told Kommersant that they are working to “increase the priority of oil cargo shipments.”
The Russian government renewed the ban on gasoline exports on March 1, while the embargo is expected to last six months.
A similar measure was in effect last year from September to November to saturate the domestic fuel market. According to Kommersant, in October 2023 (the only full month of the embargo), gasoline supplies abroad decreased to a minimum of 1.3 thousand tons per day (the embargo did not apply to supply volumes under intergovernmental agreements and to the EAEU countries). For comparison: after the lifting of the ban, gasoline exports in December 2023 were at the level of 15 thousand tons per day, and fuel production was more than 100 thousand tons per day. The current decision to limit exports was made against the background of a decrease in fuel output due to an accident at the Nizhny Novgorod LUKOIL refinery, as well as in anticipation of the start of a repair campaign at the largest plants with a simultaneous seasonal increase in demand. So far, the embargo has not led to a steady decrease in fuel prices: since February 28, AI-95 gasoline in wholesale prices has been rising daily. On March 4, the exchange price of AI-95 increased by 1.4%, to 58.6 thousand rubles. per ton.
In general, oil refining coped with the initial shock caused by accidents and attacks on refineries in January, and by the end of February reached a more or less acceptable load level of 5.35–5.4 million barrels per day, says Victor Katona from Kpler. Apart from several secondary oil refining units, the only large facility that has not yet been put back into operation remains the Tuapse Refinery, he notes.
-
Natalia Skorlygina, Dmitry Kozlov
54K4 min.4
In unbearable conditions
Gasoline export embargo could disrupt rail logistics
As Kommersant learned, railway operators expect new significant problems with transport flows in Russia due to the ban on gasoline exports introduced on March 1. According to market participants, the reorientation of gasoline volumes from export to the domestic market will increase the delivery time of goods by an average of more than four days and will require additional fleet. Russian Railways does not share these concerns.
Photo: Alexey Smagin, Kommersant
The resumption of the ban on gasoline exports could cause additional complications in the market for rail transportation of petroleum products, the Operators Information Center (OIC) told Kommersant. The ban will lead to a reorientation of gasoline transportation to the domestic market.
ISC experts note that car turnover on export routes is significantly lower than on domestic routes (17.6 days versus 21.8), which is explained by the greater technology of export transportation and the high share of route shipments (16% versus 1%). In addition, when delivering to the domestic market, the wagon remains unloaded on average 56% longer than in export transportation. “As a result, one domestic flight requires 4.2 days more time than an export flight,” explains the ICO, adding that sometimes this figure can exceed five days.
At the end of 2023, gasoline accounted for about 17% of oil cargo transportation by rail, 75% of their volume was domestic, and 17% was exported.
ICO experts believe that domestic demand may “not accept the entire flow of exported gasoline,” and the shortage of tanks will not allow exporting the same volume with increased turnover.
According to their estimates, the shortage of tanks will lead to the non-export of 3.2 thousand tons of gasoline per day. But even with replenishment of the fleet, the problem cannot be solved, since if the network is clogged, it will only lead to a further increase in car turnover, the ICO believes.
Experts believe it is necessary to increase the priority of domestic gasoline transportation. The transfer of petroleum products and LPG to a higher priority category is currently being discussed, however, according to Kommersant’s information, a decision has not yet been made.
SOZHT Executive Director Igor Sankovsky agrees with the conclusions of the ICO. “We believe that the ban on the export of gasoline will lead to an increase in the turnover of tank cars due to an increase in the transportation time of petroleum products on the domestic market,” he notes, “as less or complete absence of routing will affect a significant number of recipients, as opposed to a limited number of ports.”
The increase in tank car turnover will also be affected by the fact that the minimum sales volumes of diesel fuel at exchange trading have been increased - from 12.5% to 16%, clarifies Mr. Sankovsky. “This means that, according to working estimates, for sales on the domestic market, 0.5 million tons of cargo per year will need to be “removed” from the pipe,” he explains. “And the increase in shipments of petroleum products through exchange trading significantly increases the downtime at unloading.” Up to 75–80% of tanks idle for unloading are tanks with exchange-traded petroleum products, Mr. Sankovsky emphasizes. “Therefore, in general, we can expect a decrease in supply of tanks and an aggravation of their shortage,” he sums up.
JSC Russian Railways, however, does not expect a significant impact of the ban on gasoline exports on the network.
“Taking into account the expected reorientation of product supplies to the domestic market, a significant reduction in the network-wide volume of gasoline transportation is not expected after the government of the Russian Federation resumes regulatory measures,” the monopoly says, noting that, for its part, it is taking measures for the unconditional export of the entire volume required for transportation oil cargo.
As JSC Russian Railways believes, the existing fleet of tanks is “more than enough to organize both domestic and export transportation.” “In February, almost 18 thousand oil and gasoline tanks stood idle on non-public tracks without operations every day,” the company notes. The reliability of gasoline delivery for the needs of domestic Russian consumers remains at a consistently high level, they say, this figure reaches 96.5% this year.
At the same time, JSC Russian Railways notes a long period of idle time for tanks in the queue for unloading at oil depots, mainly among enterprises in the south of the country. “In addition, due to delays in the delivery of the tanker fleet, cases of untimely unloading of petroleum products by operators of marine terminals in the Far East are also recorded,” the company says. “This situation leads to the use of wagons by oil companies as “warehouses on wheels,” which also negatively affects to ensure subsequent supply of empty rolling stock for loading.” The Ministry of Energy told Kommersant that they are working to “increase the priority of oil cargo shipments.”
The Russian government renewed the ban on gasoline exports on March 1, while the embargo is expected to last six months.
A similar measure was in effect last year from September to November to saturate the domestic fuel market. According to Kommersant, in October 2023 (the only full month of the embargo), gasoline supplies abroad decreased to a minimum of 1.3 thousand tons per day (the embargo did not apply to supply volumes under intergovernmental agreements and to the EAEU countries). For comparison: after the lifting of the ban, gasoline exports in December 2023 were at the level of 15 thousand tons per day, and fuel production was more than 100 thousand tons per day. The current decision to limit exports was made against the background of a decrease in fuel output due to an accident at the Nizhny Novgorod LUKOIL refinery, as well as in anticipation of the start of a repair campaign at the largest plants with a simultaneous seasonal increase in demand. So far, the embargo has not led to a steady decrease in fuel prices: since February 28, AI-95 gasoline in wholesale prices has been rising daily. On March 4, the exchange price of AI-95 increased by 1.4%, to 58.6 thousand rubles. per ton.
In general, oil refining coped with the initial shock caused by accidents and attacks on refineries in January, and by the end of February reached a more or less acceptable load level of 5.35–5.4 million barrels per day, says Victor Katona from Kpler. Apart from several secondary oil refining units, the only large facility that has not yet been put back into operation remains the Tuapse Refinery, he notes.
-
Natalia Skorlygina, Dmitry Kozlov
Lahtinen
Kapteeni
Kyllä noita lihavia maaleja piisaa, ei siinä, mutta ongelma lienee nyt se, että ihan kaikkeen ei riitä paukkuja iskeä. Mutta, se mikä näistä jalostamoista tekee täysin omantasoisen maalin, on se, että kun ne on tuhottu tai ns. ”ajettu alas”, niin se venäjälle Game Over. Venäjä on iso maa, joka on täysin riippuvainen näistä polttoaineista (kuten moni muukin maa). Ja jos polttoaineet loppuvat, niin sitten loppuu ihan kaikkia. Koko yhteiskunta pysähtyy ja mitään varasuunnitelmaa ei ole.
Sodan alussa joku venäläinen taloustutkija totesi, että tämä sodan lopussa tullaan näkemään tilanne, että monet venäläiset tulevat kuolemaan nälkään. Silloin sille naurettiin, mutta kyllä näyttää tällä menolla realisoituvan viimeistää ensi talvena.
Nick Kane
Eversti
Melkoista rohkeutta 
Kaksi aseistettua sotilasta ja siviilinainen kulkevat talosta taloon vaatien ukrainalaisten äänestämistä väliaikaisesti miehitetyillä alueilla. Tämä video on peräisin Melitopolista (Zaporizzhian alue), mutta ihmiset kommentoivat, että se oli samalla tavalla Hersonin alueella.
linkki
Kaksi aseistettua sotilasta ja siviilinainen kulkevat talosta taloon vaatien ukrainalaisten äänestämistä väliaikaisesti miehitetyillä alueilla. Tämä video on peräisin Melitopolista (Zaporizzhian alue), mutta ihmiset kommentoivat, että se oli samalla tavalla Hersonin alueella.
linkki
Maidan
Respected Leader
Saksan ulkoministeriö: "Venäjän pseudovaalit eivät ole vapaat eivätkä oikeudenmukaiset. Tulos ei yllätä ketään."
"Putinin hallinto on autoritaarista, hän luottaa sensuuriin, sortoon ja väkivaltaan", ja "vaalit" Ukrainan miehitetyillä alueilla ovat pätemättömiä ja ovat jälleen kansainvälisen oikeuden rikkomus, ministeriö korosti.
Tämän päivän vaalit on rituaali, tulos on suunniteltu ja selvä, mitään valinnanvaara näille ihmisille ei edes tarjottu.
Antares
Respected Leader
Putinin ääniosuus on huippu korkea, mistä lie johtuukaan:
Putin vote totals in all past elections. Vote share is directly proportional to the state efforts invested in manipulation and rigging of the vote
2024: 87%
2018: 77%
2012: 64%
2004: 72%
2000: 53%
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MUOKKAUS: tomutetaanpa näin "vaalien" kunniaksi oma 13.2.2024 julkaistu arvaukseni, linkki viestiin josta teksti kopioitu: LINKKI
Venäjän "demokratia" toiminnassa: ainoastaan neljä ehdokasta on kelpuutettu presidentinvaaleihin sopiviksi, kun alunperin ehdokkaaksi rekisteröintiä yritti 15 kpl.
HUOM: tämä on ensimmäinen kerta vuoden 2008 jälkeen kun ehdokkaita on näin vähän.
Tämän täytyy tietysti kertoa Putinin vahvuudesta ja voimasta? Vai olisiko juuri toisinpäin? Vaihtoehtojen sijaan tarjotaan vaihtoehdottomuutta?
Putin ollut ehdolla vuosina 2000, 2004, 2012 ja 2018. Hänen "paras tuloksensa" on vuodelta, jolloin sai 76.69% "äänistä".
Oletan että papparaisen "voiman näyttäminen" vaatii, että vuoden 2024 tulos on tuota parempi. Vähäisempi tulos ei kertoisi "kansan vahvasta yhtenäisyydestä ja tuesta Putinille". Täten ennustan että Putin tulee samaan vähintään 80% äänistä, todennäköisemmin 85%. Tulos ei tietysti ole haluttu, jos äänestysprosentti jäisi alhaiseksi, joten ennustan että "virallinen äänestysprosentti" tulisi olemaan 75%.
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Tosin minun "ennustukseni" nojasi muihin, aikaisemmin kerrottuihin arvioihin (tässä lainaus 3.12.2023 julkaistusta viestistäni, linkki viestiin josta alla oleva teksti on otettu: LINKKI):
Luin eilen erään artikkelin, jossa haastateltiin Navalnyn avustajaa Espanjassa. Tämä sanoi että presidentinvaalien tulos on jo tiedossa: Putin saa 85% äänistä ja äänestysprosentti tulee olemaan 85% - lainaan alle sen mitä hän tarkalleen ottaen vastasi: LÄHDE
Q. Do you expect any changes from the presidential elections next March?
A. They will be mostly symbolic and we already know the outcome. Putin will win 85% of the vote with 85% participation. We’re not optimistic about our ability to influence that outcome. However, we’ll use the weeks leading up to the election, when people are more receptive to political discourse, to provide as much information as possible. We’ll leverage all our resources to persuade the public that Putin is not a viable choice for the future.
Mark Galeottin kirjoituksessa ollaan hyvin samoissa numeroissa:
75-80% of the vote on a 70% turnout
Sota-ajan presidentillä täytyy tietysti olla selvä ja vahva tuki jatkokauden osalta. Tästä syystä juuri tätä pienempää väärennöstä ei kannata odottaa.
Putin vote totals in all past elections. Vote share is directly proportional to the state efforts invested in manipulation and rigging of the vote
2024: 87%
2018: 77%
2012: 64%
2004: 72%
2000: 53%
-
MUOKKAUS: tomutetaanpa näin "vaalien" kunniaksi oma 13.2.2024 julkaistu arvaukseni, linkki viestiin josta teksti kopioitu: LINKKI
Venäjän "demokratia" toiminnassa: ainoastaan neljä ehdokasta on kelpuutettu presidentinvaaleihin sopiviksi, kun alunperin ehdokkaaksi rekisteröintiä yritti 15 kpl.
HUOM: tämä on ensimmäinen kerta vuoden 2008 jälkeen kun ehdokkaita on näin vähän.
Tämän täytyy tietysti kertoa Putinin vahvuudesta ja voimasta? Vai olisiko juuri toisinpäin? Vaihtoehtojen sijaan tarjotaan vaihtoehdottomuutta?
Putin ollut ehdolla vuosina 2000, 2004, 2012 ja 2018. Hänen "paras tuloksensa" on vuodelta, jolloin sai 76.69% "äänistä".
Oletan että papparaisen "voiman näyttäminen" vaatii, että vuoden 2024 tulos on tuota parempi. Vähäisempi tulos ei kertoisi "kansan vahvasta yhtenäisyydestä ja tuesta Putinille". Täten ennustan että Putin tulee samaan vähintään 80% äänistä, todennäköisemmin 85%. Tulos ei tietysti ole haluttu, jos äänestysprosentti jäisi alhaiseksi, joten ennustan että "virallinen äänestysprosentti" tulisi olemaan 75%.
-
Tosin minun "ennustukseni" nojasi muihin, aikaisemmin kerrottuihin arvioihin (tässä lainaus 3.12.2023 julkaistusta viestistäni, linkki viestiin josta alla oleva teksti on otettu: LINKKI):
Luin eilen erään artikkelin, jossa haastateltiin Navalnyn avustajaa Espanjassa. Tämä sanoi että presidentinvaalien tulos on jo tiedossa: Putin saa 85% äänistä ja äänestysprosentti tulee olemaan 85% - lainaan alle sen mitä hän tarkalleen ottaen vastasi: LÄHDE
Q. Do you expect any changes from the presidential elections next March?
A. They will be mostly symbolic and we already know the outcome. Putin will win 85% of the vote with 85% participation. We’re not optimistic about our ability to influence that outcome. However, we’ll use the weeks leading up to the election, when people are more receptive to political discourse, to provide as much information as possible. We’ll leverage all our resources to persuade the public that Putin is not a viable choice for the future.
Mark Galeottin kirjoituksessa ollaan hyvin samoissa numeroissa:
75-80% of the vote on a 70% turnout
Sota-ajan presidentillä täytyy tietysti olla selvä ja vahva tuki jatkokauden osalta. Tästä syystä juuri tätä pienempää väärennöstä ei kannata odottaa.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Kylmään ne voi kuolla ensi talvena, jos ei ole lämmitystä ja polttoaineet on loppu. Nuo jalostamot ovat tosiaan elintärkeitä ryssälän taloudelle. Niiden korjaaminen ja suojaaminen on tärkeämpää kuin sota Ukrainassa. Saa nähdä mihin ryssä priorisoi hupenevat voimansa, meneekö ne asetehtaisiin ja armeijaan, vai jalostamo infran korjaamiseen? Suuren ja mahtavan voimat alkaa hiipua, kun raaka-aineiden jalostus käy vaikeaksi tai loppuu kokonaan. Ryssän vahvuus suuri pinta-ala ja suuret raaka-aine varat on kääntynyt heikkoudeksi, jota Ukraina hyödyntää suurella intensiteetillä.
teknohippi
Ylipäällikkö
..tulevat kuolemaan nälkään ja kylmään. Tässä p itää huomata että esimerkiksi valtakunnallisen sähköverkon ulkopuolella asuu 15milj ryssää
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148120303256
Eli jalostetun polttoaineen puute vie logistiikan ja sitämyöten ruuan, valon ja lämmön yli 10% ryssiä. Lämmityksen osalta lömmitysöljy on hyvin kriittinen aine ja sillä lämpiää varmaan puolet ryssistä. Sähkö tuolle ei ole tarkoitettu vatnikin lämmittämiseen vaan valaisimeen ja propagandatuutin käyttövoimaksi. Hella lämpää kaasulla ja torppa öljyllä/kaasulla. Vähänkin syrjemmässä kaasu tulee pullossa ja öljy tankkiautolla. Keskiverto lämmitysöljy on diiseliä vastaava tisle eli vaatii jalostamon.
Elämme mielenkiintoisia aikoja idän ihmemaan suhteen. "pommitetaan kivikauteen" on hyvin lähellä totuutta jo nyt
Antares
Respected Leader
Etsivä löytää:
Czech Republic has secured 800,000 artillery ammunition from a variety of suppliers around the globe, and has also found another 700,000 that can be secured with additional funding.
The total purchase of 1.5 million shells will cost $3.3 billion", - WSJ
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Nopea laskutoimitus yhden laukauksen hinnalle:
3 300 000 000 / 1 500 000 = 2 200 dollaria
Czech Republic has secured 800,000 artillery ammunition from a variety of suppliers around the globe, and has also found another 700,000 that can be secured with additional funding.
The total purchase of 1.5 million shells will cost $3.3 billion", - WSJ
-
Nopea laskutoimitus yhden laukauksen hinnalle:
3 300 000 000 / 1 500 000 = 2 200 dollaria
Ideaalisessa maailmassa noin muttei edes länsimaissa toteudu - juurihan tässä seurattiin Tiedon seikkailuja kun venäläisten kiristyshaittaohjelma iski Ruotsin datacenteriin ja asiakkaiden systeemien palautus kesti viikkotolkulla.Tarkoittanet palvelimia ja muita tietoteknisiä laitteita, niin pienimuotoisemmassakin teollisuudessa ne on aina kahdennettu ns. dual-site klusterointi. Pitäisi aika tarkoin tietää, missä palvelinsalit ovat osuakseen. Datat on yleensä varmistettu kolmannelle saitille backup-storageen. Ei ole ameriikan temppu rakentaa systeemejä uusiksi noista backupeista. Tai oikeastaan se on just ameriikan temppu.
Parempi varmaan kuitenkin tuollainen tislaamo posauttaa ja käräyttää pari hehtaaria tehdas alueelta. Hankalampi se on korjata.
putkirassi
Kapteeni
Mielenkiitoinen "ristiriipunta" tulossa. Venäjähän ei toki tumput suorana aio olla, vaan pyrkii korvaamaan tuotannon tuonnilla. Siispä onko maailman markkinoilla edes teoreettisesti tarvittavaa määrää? Venäjä voi viedä öljyään jalostettavaksi, onko jalostamokapasiteettia? Kuljetuskapasiteetti kuitenkin loppuu, ei riitä "purkkeja". Toki kaikki edellä haluttu valmiit tuotteet, jalostus, kuljetus jne kapasiteetti tulee löytyä venäjää tukevilta mailta. Tuskin on muita isoja pelureita kuin Kiina, Intia, Iran ja jokin Arabi( saudi, emiraatit?). Afrikassa varmaan on jalostamoa, liekö enempi länsiomistuksessa. Mustameri tulee saattaa tukkoon, niin ettei krimille tuoda polttoaineita tai edelleen asovanmeren kautta emäryssälään. Tulee mielenkiintoiset ajat diplomatian suhteen kun noita juttuja junaillaan. Itämeri / pietari ei liene saatavissa merisaartoon ja jäämeri / Vladivostok ainakin ovat auki. Onko niissä satamakapsiteettia?
OXPAHA
Kenraali
Putler laski sen varaan että kansa kestää mitä vain, koska niillä ei ole mitään. Ei ottanut huomioon että aina voi mennä huonomminkin. Isku energiainfraan on varmaan viimeinen mitä ryssä odotti, ja kertoo siitä millaisen vallankumouksen sodankäynti on kokenut. Laivasto tuhotaan ilman laivastoa, kaukovaikutetaan ilman ilmavoimia ja ballistisia; sota viedään vihollisen siviileille ilman iskuja siviileitä vastaan...tulevat kuolemaan nälkään ja kylmään. Tässä p itää huomata että esimerkiksi valtakunnallisen sähköverkon ulkopuolella asuu 15milj ryssää
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148120303256
Eli jalostetun polttoaineen puute vie logistiikan ja sitämyöten ruuan, valon ja lämmön yli 10% ryssiä. Lämmityksen osalta lömmitysöljy on hyvin kriittinen aine ja sillä lämpiää varmaan puolet ryssistä. Sähkö tuolle ei ole tarkoitettu vatnikin lämmittämiseen vaan valaisimeen ja propagandatuutin käyttövoimaksi. Hella lämpää kaasulla ja torppa öljyllä/kaasulla. Vähänkin syrjemmässä kaasu tulee pullossa ja öljy tankkiautolla. Keskiverto lämmitysöljy on diiseliä vastaava tisle eli vaatii jalostamon.
Elämme mielenkiintoisia aikoja idän ihmemaan suhteen. "pommitetaan kivikauteen" on hyvin lähellä totuutta jo nyt
Kustavi
Ylipäällikkö
Alkaa olemaan kranaattia kesän yllätyksiin. Vielä kun jenkkipaketti menisi läpi niin olis mahtava juttu.
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
Kun vaan näkisi ensin, että kranut tosiaan ovat olemassa ja matkaavat perille asti. Sitä on tässä vuosien mittaan nähnyt kaikenlaista...
Kuinkas suuri osa ryssän rautateistä olikaan sähköistettyä ?
Nyt kun ensin rikotaan jalostamoinfra, niin eikö seuraavaksi kannattaisi pyrkiä häiritsemään rautateiden sähkönjakelua. Näin ryssän on pakko käyttää entistä enemmän dieselvetureita, joka taas pahentaa polttoainepulaa entisestään.
Joko kohta näemme Tampellan lokomotiivien paluun ryssän rautateille
Nyt kun ensin rikotaan jalostamoinfra, niin eikö seuraavaksi kannattaisi pyrkiä häiritsemään rautateiden sähkönjakelua. Näin ryssän on pakko käyttää entistä enemmän dieselvetureita, joka taas pahentaa polttoainepulaa entisestään.
Joko kohta näemme Tampellan lokomotiivien paluun ryssän rautateille