Ukrainan konflikti/sota
Antares
Respected Leader
Otetaanpa tuosta lista talteen eli ryssien maihinnousualukset Mustallamerellä:
A Ukrainian Navy spokesman, Dmytro Pletenchuk, told the Liga Net news agency that the Russian Navy has only 5 sailable landing ships in the Black Sea.
So far, #Ukraine has destroyed the next five big landing ships:
"Saratov" (Project 1171; Class Tapir/Alligator; killed on March 24, 2022, in Berdiansk)
"Minsk" ((Project 775; Class Ropucha; killed on September 13, 2023 in Sevastopol)
"Novocherkassk" (Project 775; Class Ropucha; killed on December 26, 2023 in Feodosia)
"Ceasar Kunikoff" (Project 775; Class Ropucha; killed on February 14, 2024)
"Kostaintyn Olshansky" (Project 775 Ropucha; killed today in Sevastopol; was stolen from Ukraine in 2014)
The other five are:
"Orsk" (Project 1171; Class Tapir/Alligator); 60 years old)
"Kaliningrad" (Project 775; Class Ropucha; 40 years old)
"Georgiy Pobedonostets" (Project 775 Ropucha, 33 years old)
"Korolev" (Project 775; Class: Ropucha; 32 years old)
"Petr Morgunov" (Project 11711 Ivan Gren, 3 years old)
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Aikaisemmassa viestissäni (LINKKI) on yksi kuva ryssän merkittävimmistä solalaivoista Mustallamerellä.
Kyseisen kuvan mukaan Ropucha-luokan maihinnousualuksia olisi ollut 10 kpl joista 7 kpl upotettu tai vaurioitettu. Jäljellä olevat 3 kpl täsmäävät yllä olevan listan kanssa.
Toisaalta kuvan mukaan Alligator-luokan maihinnousualuksia olisi ollut 3 kpl, joista 1 kpl upotettu tai vaurioitettu. Jäljellä olevista 2 kpl toinen löytyy yllä olevalta listalta mutta toinen puuttuu ("Nikolay Filchenkov" (Project 1171; Class Tapir/Alligator))
ELI riippuen sitä, kenen seurantaa uskotaan, näitä suuria maihinnousualuksia olisi Mustallamerellä käyttökelpoisessa kunnossa joko 5 kpl tai 6 kpl.
Viimeksi muokattu:
Luottopakki
Kersantti
Magyar tarkoittaa unkarilaista. Hyvä jos edes joku sitkeä sissi sieltäkin, kun on niin p*skan maan maineen onnistunut hankkimaan.
Video vähän outo: 0:27 savu ei liiku. Ikään kuin kuvattu pysäytyskuvasta.
Antares
Respected Leader
Iso-Britanniassa kiusoitellaan "hyvin pian" julkistettavalla pitkän aikavälin suunnitelmalla, joka koskisi "erästä tiettyä yhtiötä". Tämän mukaan suunnitelma on jo hyväksytty, mutta sitä ei ole julkistettu. Sen pitäisi taata yhtiölle pitkään jatkuva, tasainen "tarve" eli tilauskirjoihin täytettä pitkäksi aikaa.
In field of ammunitions, stand by for a significant UK announcement for a new long term deal with a "specific company". It has been approved and will be announced "very soon" according to Deputy CDS Magowan. Work ongoing to give industries stable demand signal to work against.
Looking at the Procurement Pipeline paper released back in October, he MIGHT be talking about what was listed as "Project HORNET" with MBDA, a framework for in service support of 7 weapon systems (had an April 2024 commencement date in the paper).
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Kommenteissa kysytään se kaikkia kiinnostava kysymys: Wonder what 7 weapon systems they will be? I’m guessing brimstone will probably be one of them.
Johon Gabriele Molinelli vastasi näin: Well, I can immediately think of ASRAAM, CAMM, Meteor, Brimstone, Storm Shadow, Sea Venom. SPEAR 3 isn't yet in service, so don't know if this will touch it or not.
In field of ammunitions, stand by for a significant UK announcement for a new long term deal with a "specific company". It has been approved and will be announced "very soon" according to Deputy CDS Magowan. Work ongoing to give industries stable demand signal to work against.
Looking at the Procurement Pipeline paper released back in October, he MIGHT be talking about what was listed as "Project HORNET" with MBDA, a framework for in service support of 7 weapon systems (had an April 2024 commencement date in the paper).
-
Kommenteissa kysytään se kaikkia kiinnostava kysymys: Wonder what 7 weapon systems they will be? I’m guessing brimstone will probably be one of them.
Johon Gabriele Molinelli vastasi näin: Well, I can immediately think of ASRAAM, CAMM, Meteor, Brimstone, Storm Shadow, Sea Venom. SPEAR 3 isn't yet in service, so don't know if this will touch it or not.
Antares
Respected Leader
Tällä on mahdollisuus liittyä Ukrainan sotaan, tosin kansainväliset asekaupat vievät aikaa joten ei kannata innostua liikaa:
"The Mirage 2000-5 is an exceptionally capable plane and can be sold. The Block 30 F-16s need to be sold. And I think we will be able to sell the [Mirage 2000-5 and Block 30 F-16s],” Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias said.
https://www.twz.com/air/greece-plans-to-sell-f-16s-mirages-to-rationalize-its-fighter-inventory
BY THOMAS NEWDICK
PUBLISHED MAR 26, 2024 6:18 PM EDT
AIRNEWS & FEATURES
(Photo by French Master Sergeant Malaury Buis)
SHARE
115
THOMAS NEWDICK
View Thomas Newdick's Articles
CombatAir
Greece looks poised to offload both its early-model F-16s and its French-made Mirage 2000 fighters, as part of a major overhaul of its armed forces, including the Hellenic Air Force. The F-16s and Mirages could be attractive on the secondhand market and it’s notable that the two types have also been repeatedly associated with potential transfers to Ukraine — which could be set to receive its first F-16s before the end of this year.
While the proposed reforms will affect all branches of the Greek military, the potential changes to the Hellenic Air Force are perhaps the most interesting. The changes were outlined yesterday by Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias, in a TV interview and were subsequently reported by the Kathimerini daily newspaper.
Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias (center, right) and French Ambassador to Greece Laurence Auer (center, left) pose with soldiers during the Olympic Cooperation 23 exercise at the Petrochori training area, near Xanthi, northern Greece, on November 24, 2023. Photo by SAKIS MITROLIDIS/AFP via Getty Images
Among the “very radical changes” announced by Dendias is the planned disposal of some of the Hellenic Air Force’s older combat aircraft equipment.
“We have a cartload of different types of aircraft. We have F-4s, Mirage 2000-5s, Block 30 F-16s, Block 50 F-16s, Block 52 F-16s, Viper F-16s, and Rafales,” Dendias explained. The “Viper F-16s” description refers to aircraft that have been upgraded to the F-16V (for Viper) configuration, which you can read more about here.
“We cannot carry on this way,” Dendias added. “The F-4s need to be retired and, if possible, sold. The Mirage 2000-5 is an exceptionally capable plane and can be sold. The Block 30 F-16s need to be sold. And I think we will be able to sell the [Mirage 2000-5 and Block 30 F-16s].”
A four-ship of Hellenic Air Force Mirage 2000-5s over the airbase of Tanagra, north of Athens, in November 2007, during a commissioning ceremony for the jets. ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images
That last statement cast doubt on whether a customer would ever be found for the veteran F-4 Phantoms, a type that is rapidly disappearing from service around the world.
Regardless, operating so many different types in a variety of configurations is a serious financial burden on Greece, especially in terms of the increasing maintenance demands.
The future Hellenic Air Force envisioned by Dendias will be more homogenous and offer better levels of interoperability.
Against this backdrop of planned retirements, Greece is also busy introducing new fighter equipment. As well as the aforementioned Viper upgrades for a portion of the existing F-16s, Rafales are arriving, with F-35A stealth fighters planned for the future.
A Hellenic Air Force Rafale. Dassault Aviation
With that in mind, Dendias confirmed the aspirations to complete the Viper upgrade, which he said had been delayed, as well as to buy additional Rafales. The defense minister wants to buy another six of the French fighters, on top of the 24 already acquired.
As for the F-35, Dendias said that Greece wants the more capable Block 4 version, which has yet to take to the air, amid ongoing problems with the software and hardware backbone that will enable those new capabilities. In the past, there had been signs that Greece might opt for secondhand F-35s, to speed delivery of stealth fighters. As it is, by waiting for the Block 4, Dendias thinks that Lockheed Martin “will have cured all the childhood illness of the fifth-generation aircraft.”
In January this year, the U.S. State Department approved the possible sale to Greece of as many as 40 F-35As and related equipment at an estimated cost of up to $8.6 billion. Such a deal still needs Congressional approval, but this is likely straightforward.
Looking at the particular aircraft that are set to be discarded, the F-16s are the survivors of 34 single-seat F-16C and six two-seat F-16D Block 30 jets that were procured under the Peace Xenia I Foreign Military Sales program and delivered between 1988 and 1990.
These were followed by successive orders for Block 50 F-16C/Ds capable of night attack missions with the LANTIRN targeting pod and navigation system and with AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) capability. Then came Block 52+ F-16C/Ds with conformal fuel tanks for extended range, and finally Block 52+ Advanced F-16C/Ds.
A Hellenic Air Force F-16C Block 50 armed with AGM-88 HARMs. Hellenic Air Force
Greece’s F-16V modernization is addressing 84 aircraft — all of them Block 52+ and Block 52+ Advanced jets — which will receive, among others, AN/APG-83 Scalable Agile Beam Radar (SABR) with active electronically scanned array (AESA), Raytheon Modular Mission Computer, remodeled cockpit including the second-generation Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS ΙΙ), and the Link 16 datalink.
All told, the fate of the Block 30 aircraft has been unclear for some time, with previous suggestions they could be sold off, or perhaps used as aggressors for air defense training.
As of today, the Block 30 jets are consolidated within a single squadron, and they have undergone the Falcon UP service-life extension, meaning they still have some valuable flight hours remaining.
A Hellenic Air Force F-16C Block 30 aircraft photographed at Kleine Brogel in Belgium in 2007. Jim van de Burgt/Wikimedia Commons
As for the Mirages, Greece placed an initial order for 36 single-seat Mirage 2000EGs and four two-seat Mirage 2000DGs that were delivered from 1988. These are used mainly for air defense but can be armed with the AM.39 Exocet missile for anti-shipping strike.
Greece subsequently obtained a further 15 new-build Mirage 2000-5BG/EG jets and brought 10 of its earlier aircraft to the same standard. These later jets are armed with the MBDA MICA missile, available in both radar-guided and infrared-guided variants, as well as the MBDA SCALP-EG cruise missile, which has notably been supplied to and used by Ukraine.
Afterburner take-off for a Hellenic Air Force Mirage 2000-5EG. Hellenic Air Force
Perhaps surprisingly, Dendias only discussed the disposal of the more capable Mirage 2000-5s, leaving a question as to what will happen to the older Mirage 2000EG/DG jets, unless he misspoke, and these also set for retirement.
Finally, the Hellenic Air Force’s surviving F-4E fighters, despite having undergone an avionics modernization, are unlikely to find a customer if offered for sale, beyond perhaps as museum exhibits. Despite some advanced capabilities — including color multifunctional displays, hands on throttle and stick (HOTAS), Rafael Litening II laser targeting pods, and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles — the limited service life left and dated infrastructure to support them would make their introduction a highly expensive endeavor for very little return.
A Hellenic Air Force F-4E in its hardened aircraft shelter, armed with the Vietnam War-era HOBOS TV-guided bomb. Hellenic Air Force
The story is very different for the F-16s and Mirages. Both these types are still in widespread service and have a lot to offer, not just for private contractors offering adversary services, but also for frontline air forces.
In particular, Ukraine could be interested.
Kyiv, after much hard campaigning, is finally set to receive F-16s, with these being drawn from a multinational European consortium spearheaded by Denmark and the Netherlands. The exact breakdown of the numbers of these jets that different countries will provide is unclear, with some earmarked for training and others headed to the Ukrainian Air Force for combat use. As well as Denmark, which has pledged 19 jets, and the Netherlands, with reportedly up to 48, Norway has also said it will seek to provide between five and 10 F-16s to Ukraine. However, Greece has, so far, not been mentioned in these discussions.
One of the first five former Dutch F-16s that will be used to train Ukrainian pilots as part of a European initiative that touched down in Romania on November 7, 2023. Dutch Ministry of Defense Dutch Ministry of Defense
Since Greece is not part of the European Participating Air Forces (EPAF), its aircraft will not have the same benefits of commonality shared by the other European F-16 operators involved in the Ukrainian effort, but the jets would still be a valuable acquisition for Kyiv.
Mirage 2000s, too, have been linked with a potential transfer to Ukraine, with proposals to transfer examples from French stocks. So far, these have come to nothing, with the F-16 emerging as the clear priority for Ukraine. That said, the availability of potentially dozens more surplus Mirage 2000s — including more advanced Mirage 2000-5 versions — could lead to a rethink and see those plans revisited.
In the past, Greece has also considered transferring other heavy weapons to Ukraine, most notably a proposal to send much-needed S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems. Unusually for a NATO member, Greece has fairly significant stocks of Soviet-era and Russian-made air defense systems, and early this year there were reports that Athens could be ready to provide some of these to Ukraine.
An S-300PMU-1 anti defense system launches a missile during a Greek Army military exercise near Chania on the island of Crete on December 13, 2013. Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images
As it stands, Greece looks set to retire its Block 30 F-16s as well as at least a portion of its Mirage 2000 fleet. All these aircraft remain highly capable assets that could be relatively easily incorporated into other nations’ existing fleets. They could also be very attractive acquisitions for private contractors looking to offer ‘red air’ services. Were they to be made available to Ukraine, they would very likely be snapped up. For now, that’s just one possibility of many, as Greece sets about a radical consolidation of its combat aircraft fleet.
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Contact the author: [email protected]
"The Mirage 2000-5 is an exceptionally capable plane and can be sold. The Block 30 F-16s need to be sold. And I think we will be able to sell the [Mirage 2000-5 and Block 30 F-16s],” Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias said.
https://www.twz.com/air/greece-plans-to-sell-f-16s-mirages-to-rationalize-its-fighter-inventory
Greece Plans To Sell F-16s, Mirages To Rationalize Its Fighter Inventory
Greece is set to sell off some of its F-16s and Mirage 2000s as it plans to reduce its diverse combat aircraft fleet.BY THOMAS NEWDICK
PUBLISHED MAR 26, 2024 6:18 PM EDT
AIRNEWS & FEATURES
(Photo by French Master Sergeant Malaury Buis)
SHARE
115
THOMAS NEWDICK
View Thomas Newdick's Articles
CombatAir
Greece looks poised to offload both its early-model F-16s and its French-made Mirage 2000 fighters, as part of a major overhaul of its armed forces, including the Hellenic Air Force. The F-16s and Mirages could be attractive on the secondhand market and it’s notable that the two types have also been repeatedly associated with potential transfers to Ukraine — which could be set to receive its first F-16s before the end of this year.
While the proposed reforms will affect all branches of the Greek military, the potential changes to the Hellenic Air Force are perhaps the most interesting. The changes were outlined yesterday by Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias, in a TV interview and were subsequently reported by the Kathimerini daily newspaper.
Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Dendias (center, right) and French Ambassador to Greece Laurence Auer (center, left) pose with soldiers during the Olympic Cooperation 23 exercise at the Petrochori training area, near Xanthi, northern Greece, on November 24, 2023. Photo by SAKIS MITROLIDIS/AFP via Getty Images
Among the “very radical changes” announced by Dendias is the planned disposal of some of the Hellenic Air Force’s older combat aircraft equipment.
“We have a cartload of different types of aircraft. We have F-4s, Mirage 2000-5s, Block 30 F-16s, Block 50 F-16s, Block 52 F-16s, Viper F-16s, and Rafales,” Dendias explained. The “Viper F-16s” description refers to aircraft that have been upgraded to the F-16V (for Viper) configuration, which you can read more about here.
“We cannot carry on this way,” Dendias added. “The F-4s need to be retired and, if possible, sold. The Mirage 2000-5 is an exceptionally capable plane and can be sold. The Block 30 F-16s need to be sold. And I think we will be able to sell the [Mirage 2000-5 and Block 30 F-16s].”
A four-ship of Hellenic Air Force Mirage 2000-5s over the airbase of Tanagra, north of Athens, in November 2007, during a commissioning ceremony for the jets. ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images
That last statement cast doubt on whether a customer would ever be found for the veteran F-4 Phantoms, a type that is rapidly disappearing from service around the world.
Regardless, operating so many different types in a variety of configurations is a serious financial burden on Greece, especially in terms of the increasing maintenance demands.
The future Hellenic Air Force envisioned by Dendias will be more homogenous and offer better levels of interoperability.
Against this backdrop of planned retirements, Greece is also busy introducing new fighter equipment. As well as the aforementioned Viper upgrades for a portion of the existing F-16s, Rafales are arriving, with F-35A stealth fighters planned for the future.
A Hellenic Air Force Rafale. Dassault Aviation
With that in mind, Dendias confirmed the aspirations to complete the Viper upgrade, which he said had been delayed, as well as to buy additional Rafales. The defense minister wants to buy another six of the French fighters, on top of the 24 already acquired.
As for the F-35, Dendias said that Greece wants the more capable Block 4 version, which has yet to take to the air, amid ongoing problems with the software and hardware backbone that will enable those new capabilities. In the past, there had been signs that Greece might opt for secondhand F-35s, to speed delivery of stealth fighters. As it is, by waiting for the Block 4, Dendias thinks that Lockheed Martin “will have cured all the childhood illness of the fifth-generation aircraft.”
In January this year, the U.S. State Department approved the possible sale to Greece of as many as 40 F-35As and related equipment at an estimated cost of up to $8.6 billion. Such a deal still needs Congressional approval, but this is likely straightforward.
Looking at the particular aircraft that are set to be discarded, the F-16s are the survivors of 34 single-seat F-16C and six two-seat F-16D Block 30 jets that were procured under the Peace Xenia I Foreign Military Sales program and delivered between 1988 and 1990.
These were followed by successive orders for Block 50 F-16C/Ds capable of night attack missions with the LANTIRN targeting pod and navigation system and with AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) capability. Then came Block 52+ F-16C/Ds with conformal fuel tanks for extended range, and finally Block 52+ Advanced F-16C/Ds.
A Hellenic Air Force F-16C Block 50 armed with AGM-88 HARMs. Hellenic Air Force
Greece’s F-16V modernization is addressing 84 aircraft — all of them Block 52+ and Block 52+ Advanced jets — which will receive, among others, AN/APG-83 Scalable Agile Beam Radar (SABR) with active electronically scanned array (AESA), Raytheon Modular Mission Computer, remodeled cockpit including the second-generation Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS ΙΙ), and the Link 16 datalink.
All told, the fate of the Block 30 aircraft has been unclear for some time, with previous suggestions they could be sold off, or perhaps used as aggressors for air defense training.
As of today, the Block 30 jets are consolidated within a single squadron, and they have undergone the Falcon UP service-life extension, meaning they still have some valuable flight hours remaining.
A Hellenic Air Force F-16C Block 30 aircraft photographed at Kleine Brogel in Belgium in 2007. Jim van de Burgt/Wikimedia Commons
As for the Mirages, Greece placed an initial order for 36 single-seat Mirage 2000EGs and four two-seat Mirage 2000DGs that were delivered from 1988. These are used mainly for air defense but can be armed with the AM.39 Exocet missile for anti-shipping strike.
Greece subsequently obtained a further 15 new-build Mirage 2000-5BG/EG jets and brought 10 of its earlier aircraft to the same standard. These later jets are armed with the MBDA MICA missile, available in both radar-guided and infrared-guided variants, as well as the MBDA SCALP-EG cruise missile, which has notably been supplied to and used by Ukraine.
Afterburner take-off for a Hellenic Air Force Mirage 2000-5EG. Hellenic Air Force
Perhaps surprisingly, Dendias only discussed the disposal of the more capable Mirage 2000-5s, leaving a question as to what will happen to the older Mirage 2000EG/DG jets, unless he misspoke, and these also set for retirement.
Finally, the Hellenic Air Force’s surviving F-4E fighters, despite having undergone an avionics modernization, are unlikely to find a customer if offered for sale, beyond perhaps as museum exhibits. Despite some advanced capabilities — including color multifunctional displays, hands on throttle and stick (HOTAS), Rafael Litening II laser targeting pods, and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles — the limited service life left and dated infrastructure to support them would make their introduction a highly expensive endeavor for very little return.
A Hellenic Air Force F-4E in its hardened aircraft shelter, armed with the Vietnam War-era HOBOS TV-guided bomb. Hellenic Air Force
The story is very different for the F-16s and Mirages. Both these types are still in widespread service and have a lot to offer, not just for private contractors offering adversary services, but also for frontline air forces.
In particular, Ukraine could be interested.
Kyiv, after much hard campaigning, is finally set to receive F-16s, with these being drawn from a multinational European consortium spearheaded by Denmark and the Netherlands. The exact breakdown of the numbers of these jets that different countries will provide is unclear, with some earmarked for training and others headed to the Ukrainian Air Force for combat use. As well as Denmark, which has pledged 19 jets, and the Netherlands, with reportedly up to 48, Norway has also said it will seek to provide between five and 10 F-16s to Ukraine. However, Greece has, so far, not been mentioned in these discussions.
One of the first five former Dutch F-16s that will be used to train Ukrainian pilots as part of a European initiative that touched down in Romania on November 7, 2023. Dutch Ministry of Defense Dutch Ministry of Defense
Since Greece is not part of the European Participating Air Forces (EPAF), its aircraft will not have the same benefits of commonality shared by the other European F-16 operators involved in the Ukrainian effort, but the jets would still be a valuable acquisition for Kyiv.
Mirage 2000s, too, have been linked with a potential transfer to Ukraine, with proposals to transfer examples from French stocks. So far, these have come to nothing, with the F-16 emerging as the clear priority for Ukraine. That said, the availability of potentially dozens more surplus Mirage 2000s — including more advanced Mirage 2000-5 versions — could lead to a rethink and see those plans revisited.
In the past, Greece has also considered transferring other heavy weapons to Ukraine, most notably a proposal to send much-needed S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems. Unusually for a NATO member, Greece has fairly significant stocks of Soviet-era and Russian-made air defense systems, and early this year there were reports that Athens could be ready to provide some of these to Ukraine.
An S-300PMU-1 anti defense system launches a missile during a Greek Army military exercise near Chania on the island of Crete on December 13, 2013. Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images
As it stands, Greece looks set to retire its Block 30 F-16s as well as at least a portion of its Mirage 2000 fleet. All these aircraft remain highly capable assets that could be relatively easily incorporated into other nations’ existing fleets. They could also be very attractive acquisitions for private contractors looking to offer ‘red air’ services. Were they to be made available to Ukraine, they would very likely be snapped up. For now, that’s just one possibility of many, as Greece sets about a radical consolidation of its combat aircraft fleet.
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Contact the author: [email protected]
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Putinxyjlo
Eversti
Oliskohan 360° domekameran stillikuvasta. Tiedusteluun varsin soivapeli, jos halutaan katsoa kiinteäsiipisen lentämää reittiä tarkemmin videolta. Samanlaisia vempeleitä kuin google mapsi autoissa siis.
Ja ihan täyttä mutua tämä.
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ISW:n mukaan väite, ettei sota ole voitettavissa Venäjän ylivoiman takia, on venäläinen informaatio-operaatio, joka antaa väläyksen Kremlin todellisesta strategiasta ja ainoasta toivosta saavuttaa menestystä.
www.understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, all
Antares
Respected Leader
HUOM: kertauksen vuoksi, tässä se mitä näistä kirjoitettiin 7.2.2024: LÄHDE
"In Ukraine, the mass production of UAVs of the type of Russian Lancets with a range of 40 km will soon begin", - Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov
️ The first contracts will be signed in the coming weeks. They will get to the front soon after that.-
A Ukrainian version of the Russian "Lancet" FPV attack drone with a 40km range is expected to be under production and will be entering service soon.
"It is difficult to say when, but I think that within two months information will begin to appear in the Russian public about how their tanks are on fire." Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov
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Odottavan aika on tietysti pitkä ja uuden tuotteen saaminen tuotantoon sekä sen jälkeen tuotantokapasiteetin kasvattaminen vievät aikaa, mutta toivotaan tosiaan että näiden käyttöönotto tapahtuisi piakkoin.
En sulje pois sitä vaihtoehtoa että Ukraina valmistaisi näitä tarkoituksella varastoon, varsinkin jos odotetaan ryssän yrittävän vakavammin esim. rospuuttokauden jälkeen. Uuden tuotteen uustuotanto ei ole välttämättä valtaisan suurta, mistä syystä sellaisten valmistaminen varastoon voi olla perusteltua.
Toki toinen näkemys on että tappioiden tuottaminen pitää aloittaa heti kun siihen on kyky ja varastoista viis.
Antares
Respected Leader
Dmitri uudelleentwiittasi vuosi sitten julkaisemansa twiitin (alkuperäinen twiitti julkaistu 28.3.2023):
Russian military reporter Sladkov claims that 50,000 of North Korean spetsnaz are ready to join the war on the Russian side, in addition to 800,000 regular troops.
We are concerned for the welfare of this potential force, who may disappear into nothingness as the 10k Syrian volunteers did a year ago.
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Muistan että vastaavia "huhuja" kuultiin jo aikaisemmin, kesällä 2022.
Kuten tuossa ylempänä ISW:n julkaisussa todetaan, ryssällä on tarve ylläpitää ja voimistaa legendaa heidän mahdistaan, voimastaan ja kestävyydestään.
Samaan aikaan heillä on tarve vihjailla "hyvistä ystävistään" eli Syyria, Pohjois-Korea, Iran ja Kiina. Yllä olevan twiitin viesti koskee osaa näistä.
Kuitenkin, kun huomioidaan oikea ja toteutunut apu, se on ollut pelkästään rahalla tai vaihtokaupoilla ostettua. Yksikään "ystävä" ei ole antanut ryssälle mitään ilmaiseksi - ja oikea, aito sotilaallinen apu uusien joukkojen muodossa on loistanut poissaolollaan. Liekö sellaista ollut koskaan edes olemassakaan, muuten kuin ryssän propagandatorvien märissä unissa.
Tilanne on tämä, tällä hetkellä kun hyökkäyksen alkamisesta on kulunut hieman yli 25 kuukautta.
Russian military reporter Sladkov claims that 50,000 of North Korean spetsnaz are ready to join the war on the Russian side, in addition to 800,000 regular troops.
We are concerned for the welfare of this potential force, who may disappear into nothingness as the 10k Syrian volunteers did a year ago.
-
Muistan että vastaavia "huhuja" kuultiin jo aikaisemmin, kesällä 2022.
Kuten tuossa ylempänä ISW:n julkaisussa todetaan, ryssällä on tarve ylläpitää ja voimistaa legendaa heidän mahdistaan, voimastaan ja kestävyydestään.
Samaan aikaan heillä on tarve vihjailla "hyvistä ystävistään" eli Syyria, Pohjois-Korea, Iran ja Kiina. Yllä olevan twiitin viesti koskee osaa näistä.
Kuitenkin, kun huomioidaan oikea ja toteutunut apu, se on ollut pelkästään rahalla tai vaihtokaupoilla ostettua. Yksikään "ystävä" ei ole antanut ryssälle mitään ilmaiseksi - ja oikea, aito sotilaallinen apu uusien joukkojen muodossa on loistanut poissaolollaan. Liekö sellaista ollut koskaan edes olemassakaan, muuten kuin ryssän propagandatorvien märissä unissa.
Tilanne on tämä, tällä hetkellä kun hyökkäyksen alkamisesta on kulunut hieman yli 25 kuukautta.
tienvarsipummi
Ylipäällikkö
Ei muuten ehtinyt olla se venäjän uusi mustanmeren laivaston komentaja (Moiseyev) kuin viikon virassaan kun neljä purkkia meni.
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
Ehkä kuitenkin V-V. "Suojelua" vastaan luultavasti.
Antares
Respected Leader
Ei voida olla varmoja, mitä ovat sopineet, mutta erilaisista "asekaupoista" on ollut puhetta. Iskander-M ohjuspattereita ja T-72B3 panssarivaunuja, tosin näistä on voitu sopia (alustavasti) jo ennen hyökkäyksen alkua.
Ryssä kävi tyhjentämässä Valko-Venäjän ammusvarastot jo kesällä 2022 ja sai myös pienehkön määrän panssarivaunuja, BMP-vaunuja yms.
Kenties olet oikeassa ja Lukashenko antoi sen mitä pystyi?
Toinen vaihtoehto on että saavat öljyä ja kaasua "suurella alennuksella", se olisi ryssän perinteinen tapa maksaa.
Kolmas vaihtoehto on sopimus siitä että heille toimitetaan vastaavan suorituskyvyn (tai paremman) kalustoa "sitten joskus".
Lukashenkoa ei turhaan kutsuttu "Euroopan viimeiseksi diktaattoriksi": hänen pitkä valtakautensa kertoo siitä ettei hän ole täysi hölmöläinen vaan hallitsee valtapelin. Minun on vaikea uskoa että olisi antanut omistaan ilmaiseksi, vaan jotain hänelle on annettu tai luvattu vastineeksi.
Antares
Respected Leader
Tällainen asia harkinnassa:
Urgent evacuation of Kharkiv region: people will be forcibly resettled from the northern regions, mayor Sinegubov.
"We are considering Bogodukhivskyi, Kharkivskyi district in order to announce a mandatory evacuation there."
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Tälle voi keksiä monta selitystä, yksi on se että odotetaan ryssän käyttävän tykistöä ja heittimiä rajaseudun asutuskeskuksia vastaan eli ennakoidaan siviileihin kohdistunutta uhkaa.
Toisaalta, en voi sivuuttaa niitä viime päivinä nähtyjä lehtikirjoituksia, joiden mukaan ryssällä olisi tähtäimessä Kharkovan "piiritys". En ole tästä suuresti huolissani, koska ei ole nähty selviä merkkejä näin suuresta operaatiosta vaan on ainoastaan saatu lukea nimettömien lähteiden kommentteja. JA niissäkin on todettu että ensin tarvitsee kerätä 300 000 sotilasta tällaista operaatiota varten, eli homma on vielä lähtötelineissä.
Yllä olevan twiitin mukaan "asiaa harkitaan" mikä kertoo sekin alustavasta pohdinnasta / arviosta eikä suuresta kiireestä.
Pitänee silti jossain vaiheessa kaivaa esiin kartat vuodelta 2022 eli hyökkäyksen ensimmäiseltä kuukaudelta. Mitä reittejä pitkin ryssän hyökkäsi Kharkovaa kohti? Montako kärkeä ja mistä suunnista? Mille tasalle ne pysäytettiin?
Belgorodin kaupunki on suuri rautateiden solmupiste ja siten loogisin paikka tällaisten hyökkäysjoukkojen "lähtötasaksi", sikäli kun mitään joukkojen ja kaluston siirtoja tullaan näkemään (jossain vaiheessa vuoden 2024 aikana). Nämä eivät tietysti pysy salassa vaan saadaan lukea niistä sitä mukaa kun niitä tapahtuu, jos tapahtuu.
Eikä voida sivuuttaa sitä vaihtoehtoa että kaikki nämä puheet Kharkovaan hyökkäämisestä ovat ryssän sumutusta ja maskirovkaa jolla pyritään saamaan Ukraina siirtämään joukkoja pois idästä ja etelästä - eli niiltä suunnilta missä ryssän on tarkoitus hyökätä oikeasti. Alunperin tosiaan uutisoitiin että vuoden 2024 tavoite olisi Donetskin ja Luhanskin alueiden valtaaminen - eli Kharkovan kaupunki ei kuulu siihen, sen vuoro (kuten myös Dnipron muut itäpuoliset alueet) oli tarkoitus vallata vuosien 2025 ja 2026 aikana - jos uskotaan mitä kirjoitettiin aikaisemmin "ryssän tavoitteista".
Urgent evacuation of Kharkiv region: people will be forcibly resettled from the northern regions, mayor Sinegubov.
"We are considering Bogodukhivskyi, Kharkivskyi district in order to announce a mandatory evacuation there."
-
Tälle voi keksiä monta selitystä, yksi on se että odotetaan ryssän käyttävän tykistöä ja heittimiä rajaseudun asutuskeskuksia vastaan eli ennakoidaan siviileihin kohdistunutta uhkaa.
Toisaalta, en voi sivuuttaa niitä viime päivinä nähtyjä lehtikirjoituksia, joiden mukaan ryssällä olisi tähtäimessä Kharkovan "piiritys". En ole tästä suuresti huolissani, koska ei ole nähty selviä merkkejä näin suuresta operaatiosta vaan on ainoastaan saatu lukea nimettömien lähteiden kommentteja. JA niissäkin on todettu että ensin tarvitsee kerätä 300 000 sotilasta tällaista operaatiota varten, eli homma on vielä lähtötelineissä.
Yllä olevan twiitin mukaan "asiaa harkitaan" mikä kertoo sekin alustavasta pohdinnasta / arviosta eikä suuresta kiireestä.
Pitänee silti jossain vaiheessa kaivaa esiin kartat vuodelta 2022 eli hyökkäyksen ensimmäiseltä kuukaudelta. Mitä reittejä pitkin ryssän hyökkäsi Kharkovaa kohti? Montako kärkeä ja mistä suunnista? Mille tasalle ne pysäytettiin?
Belgorodin kaupunki on suuri rautateiden solmupiste ja siten loogisin paikka tällaisten hyökkäysjoukkojen "lähtötasaksi", sikäli kun mitään joukkojen ja kaluston siirtoja tullaan näkemään (jossain vaiheessa vuoden 2024 aikana). Nämä eivät tietysti pysy salassa vaan saadaan lukea niistä sitä mukaa kun niitä tapahtuu, jos tapahtuu.
Eikä voida sivuuttaa sitä vaihtoehtoa että kaikki nämä puheet Kharkovaan hyökkäämisestä ovat ryssän sumutusta ja maskirovkaa jolla pyritään saamaan Ukraina siirtämään joukkoja pois idästä ja etelästä - eli niiltä suunnilta missä ryssän on tarkoitus hyökätä oikeasti. Alunperin tosiaan uutisoitiin että vuoden 2024 tavoite olisi Donetskin ja Luhanskin alueiden valtaaminen - eli Kharkovan kaupunki ei kuulu siihen, sen vuoro (kuten myös Dnipron muut itäpuoliset alueet) oli tarkoitus vallata vuosien 2025 ja 2026 aikana - jos uskotaan mitä kirjoitettiin aikaisemmin "ryssän tavoitteista".
Viimeksi muokattu:
Poteropio
Kersantti
Tyly arvio Venäjän asevoimista: ”Eeppinen epäonnistuminen”
Oryx-blogin avointen lähteiden avulla keräämät tilastot muodostavat eräänlaisen alarajan Ukrainan sodan kalustotappioille.
StepanRudanskij
Respected Leader
Luka sai lämmintä ilmaa eli lupauksen pääsystä merelle. Näin kertoi Putlerin luvanneen, mutta tuo lupaus ei toteudu.
Luottopakki
Kersantti
Vois hyvinkin olla. Virtaakin säästyy jos väijylaitteen ei kaikissa tilanteissa tarvitse lähettää livestreamia.