Ukrainan konflikti/sota

No kyllä tuo pitäisi aika vakavasti ottaa, kun asia on pöydällä. Tuosta ei ole kovin pitkä matka kiristykseen. Varsinkin, kun ottaa huomioon, paljonko erilaiset sopimukset painaa Trumpin vaakakupissa🤔 Se on yksi huono päivä noille gangstereille, ja starlink sammuu tai pätkii juuri kiusallisen sopivasti.
Muskia voi syyttää miksi vaan, mutta ei valehtelijaksi. Siitä se ottaa kunnon kierrokset, ihan perinteisen ADHD yms tapaan. Vaikka mieli heittelee miten tahansa, ne ei valehtele.
 
Tänään on nähty twitterissä monenlaista epämääräistä ja suoraan sanottuna noloa möykkää Starlinkkiin liittyen, mutta sanoisin että tässä lienee se oleellisin kommentti Muskilta:

To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals.

I am simply stating that, without Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other communications!

We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip.



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Fakta on se että Starlinkin kaltaista ja yhtä laajaa satelliitti-internet järjestelmää ei ole kenelläkään toisella, erityisesti kattavuuden ja datasiirron osalta.

Starlink yhteyksien katkaiseminen olisi myös merkittävä sopimusrikkomus, joten en ennakoi että sellaista tultaisiin näkemään.

Toisaalta voidaan miettiä, millaisia riskejä Ukraina on valmis ottamaan tämän kanssa? Tässä puhutaan kuitenkin hyvin merkittävästä viestijärjestelmästä ja he ovat rakentaneet suuren osan toimintojaan Starlink-yhteyksien varaan (kuten on ryssäkin). Joku voisi sanoa että Ukrainan olisi ehdottomasti kannattavaa rakentaa tämän rinnalle toisiin yhteyksiin perustuva "varajärjestelmä". Helpommin sanottu kuin tehty: miten paljon resursseja, rahaa ja aikaa tällaisen rakentamiseen kannattaa käyttää, JOS siihen päätettäisiin ryhtyä?

Toki riskinä on se että kaikista vakuutuksista ja lupauksista huolimatta joku päättää jossain vaiheessa että Starlink yhteyksien katkaiseminen, edes väliaikaisesti, olisi sopiva "näpäytys" jolla Ukraina pakotettaisiin neuvottelemaan. Ei voitane kokonaan sivuuttaa tällaista riskiä, vaikka se olisikin vain väliaikainen katkos (päivä tai pari). Rintama ei tietysti romahtaisi tällaiseen, mutta pidempi katko olisi jo selvästi vaikeampi asia.
Tähän mohdolliseen starlink järjestelmien korvaamiseen on alettu jo tehdä töitä, mutta ottaa hetkisen. Kuitenkin hyvä että ovat tiedostaneet etukäteen mohdollisista ongelmista.

 
Näin se kehitys kehittyy! Kohta tämä pystyy korvaamaan Patriotin. Toivottavasti myös puikkojen tuotantomääriä skaalataan riittävästi ylöspäin!
Mahtavaa! Ja toivotaan, että lähivuosina moni Patriot kauppa jää tämän takia tekemättä.
 
Moni sotaa alusta asti seurannut muistanee tämän kirjoituksen, mutta kenties on silti hyvä verestää muistoja, varsinkin kun on ohitettu 1100. sotapäivä ja "rauhanneuvottelut" ovat vahvasti kielen päällä (tämä käännös julkaistiin 27.2.2022 eli kolme päivää hyökkäyksen jälkeen, mutta varsinainen teksti julkaistiin ryssäläisissä medioissa 25.2.2022 eli välittömästi suurhyökkäystä seuraavana päivänä) - Christo Grozev jakoi sen ja kirjoitti näin:

Yesterday, multiple Russian state media published an extremely shocking, even for Kremlin standards, essay: it presumed "Putin solved the Ukrainian question for ever" - i.e. it presumed Russia took over Ukraine and essentially annexed it into a forever-new--old-union.

But this essay was apparently written for a scenario where Russian armed forces had taken over Kyiv and subjugated the country...Which didn't actually happen.

So, what did state news agency do? They deleted the article, as if the plan had never been published in the first place.

(if you click on the article in @skazal_on's link you will get a non-existing page...but here's the original, archived:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html)

Ok, one can assume this was just an editorial mistake that was caught early, and the essay did not reflect the State view..EXCEPT.. this same essay was carried on other state-run channels too, like @SputnikInt:

https://uz.sputniknews.ru/20220226/nastuplenie-rossii-i-novogo-mira-22994815.html

So indeed, this was meant to toast a Greater Russia outcome that never happened. Here's the plan the author had - and apparently, was seen as endorseable by state media:

(lue koko tekstin käännös spoilerin takaa)

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Yesterday multiple Russian state media published this essay, which was apparently written for the scenario where Russia *won*; Bellingcat exec dir. @christogrozev reports

Since deleted, but http://archive.org had it gtranslate & i formatted it

revealing, insane stuff


1741554921872.webp

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Lainaan loput tekstimuodossa (lihavoinnit alkuperäisen artikkelin mukaisesti, eivät siis ole minun omia): LÄHDE

The offensive of Russia and the new world

Kyiv. February 25, 2022 -

Petr Akopov

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, in Russia. 



Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system.

Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.

Nationalists in Ukraine are fighting on the recommendation of foreigners, Putin said

Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.

The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And in the event of the consolidation of the full geopolitical and military control of the West over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc.

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.

And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.

Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools.

More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning.

Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.

Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chances of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China. If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible.

Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

No one in Europe wants to fight Russia, says the French defense minister.


China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.


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Suosittelen lukemaan tuon ja miettimään, ovatko ryssän tavoitteet muuttuneet kolmessa vuodessa. Alkuperäisiä tavoitteita ei ole kyetty saavuttamaan sodan keinoilla, joten "rauhanneuvotteluissa" pyritään saamaan ilmaiseksi sellaista mitä ei ole saavutettu.

Miten "pysyväksi" kuvittelee muodostuvan "rauhan"? Vaikkei ampumasota jatkuisikaan, ryssä tulee olemaan Ukrainan kimpussa kaikin muin keinoin. Suuntaviivoja voi katsoa Georgiasta: vuoden 2008 sodan jälkeen maan suunta on käännetty 180 astetta toiseen suuntaan - ryssän eduksi. Ukraina ei ole Georgia ja tällaisen suursodan jälkeen halu alistua ryssän käskettäväksi on pieni, mutta se ei poista sitä, etteikö ryssä olisi Ukrainan kimpussa tästä huolimatta.

Yleisemmin, tuossa kirjoituksessa lausutaan julki ryssän strategiset tavoitteet Euroopan, Lännen ja koko maailman osalta. Näitä voidaan pitää "ikiaikaisina ja muuttumattomina" eli vaikka sotaan tulisikin tauko tai pidempiaikainen "rauha", ei kannata kuvitella että ryssän ajattelu ja tavoitteet olisivat muuttuneet näiltäkään osin.
 
Thorkillin mukaan Ukrainan perääntyminen Kurskissa vaikuttaa tapahtuvan onnistuneesti.

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The situation in the Sudza region, part IVAs expected, Ukrainian troops continued their retreat from the so-called Kursk Bridgehead today. In its northern part, the rear guards of the 22nd Brigade, 80th and 95th VDV Brigades left the Malaya Loknya - Kositsa - southern part of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye border in an organized manner at about 12:00 local time and moved on foot to the next delay line in the area: Loknya - Yuzhnyi - Ivashkovsky. At about the same time, the rear guards of the 82nd VDV Brigade withdrew from the Martynovka - Mikhailovka area and took up positions on the Mirny-Bondarevka line. In general, it seems that the retreat of Ukrainian troops is being conducted efficiently. So far, the Russians have only boasted about individual films of Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner. Everything indicates that tomorrow the Russians will enter Sudzha.Below is an indicative presentation of the current shape of the Ukrainian defense line in the Sudja region.

 
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