Concern that war with Ukraine may not be in Russia’s best interests is percolating through Russia’s national security community.5 Two retired Russian officers, Colonel General Leonid Ivashov and Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, warned in Russian defense publications that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may not go as easily as some assume. Even if victorious in battle, they argue that the war could be counterproductive for Russia.6 Neither Ivashov, who heads a Russian veterans organization dedicated to strengthening Russia’s military, nor Khodarenok, who served in the Operations Directorate of the Russian General Staff, can be considered pro-Western foreign agents or dilettantes in military strategy.
Additionally, as early as December 1, 2021, the head of the Russian Academy of Science’s Center for Ukrainian Research, Viktor Mironenko, warned that Ukraine could become another Afghanistan.7 While all of these analysts argue that Russia could eventually defeat Ukraine, they believe that a war would still be counterproductive and costly. The fact that such articles were published and have not been taken off their websites, like other publications that displease the Kremlin, indicates that these views may have the support of some individuals in the Kremlin.
The article by Colonel Khodarenok is most revealing. He argues against a war because (1) the Ukrainians will strongly resist; (2) the effects of Russian firepower are overestimated and advanced weapons systems have limited supplies of ammunition; (3) air superiority has not always translated into victory in Moscow’s previous wars; (4) the Ukrainian air force and air defense forces, however limited, will draw blood just as even the less capable Georgians did in 2008; and (5) urban combat will draw even more blood.8
Despite these cautions, a military incursion may still be possible.
