Nobody should be surprised that the man who called the unraveling of the Soviet Union “
the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century” has been trying to reverse history. He took the first step
in Crimea in 2014, and in the early morning hours of 24 February he ordered a large-scale
invasion of Ukraine. This war will have many long-term consequences, but possibly none more important than its effects on the future of the European energy supply.
At the time of this writing, four days after the start of the invasion, many outcomes are possible. Russia might even become, miraculously and temporarily, less intransigent, and Europe might then welcome
status quo ante. A very different outcome seems much more likely, though, as the European Union scrambles to reduce its dependence on Russian imports.
This will be harder and more painful than most people realize. Economically punishing Russia is difficult to do, for a variety of reasons. One is that the road to new energy realities in Europe will be long, rough, and twisty. Russia’s energy resources
are enormous and Europe’s dependence on them is deep and pervasive. Rapid severing of Europe’s Russian supplies would create an unprecedented economic and existential emergency on the continent.
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