It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week
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Combat Strength
On April 8 US estimated that Russia retains 80-85% combat strength
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On April 12 this was updated to be just over 80%
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Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently between 65 and 75 BTGs in Ukraine as Russian moves and reconstitutes its forces
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The estimated number of BTGs rendered combat ineffective has been evaluated at 37-38.
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It is expected that the Russian concentration in the Donbas will increase significantly with the addition of dozens of new BTGs and tens of thousands of soldiers
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Russian Equipment Manufacturing
There have been several reports over the past few weeks of production delays at Russian tank assembly plants and now there are unconfirmed reports of new stoppages
Australia recently added the primary Russian truck manufacturer Kamaz to their sanctions list
There are calls for similar sanctions in other countries, which have been targeting other military manufacturing companies instead
One item of interest to me was that Russian missile production is reliant on just two suppliers and I hope to dig into their material this week to see if we can learn anything about production capacity
ktrv.ru
almaz-antey.ru/en/
http://www.ktrv.ru/
Repositioning
US defence officials have said that they expect Russia wants to move quickly
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However, western officials believe there are still significant bottlenecks limiting the speed with which Russia is repositioning its forces
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The speed of Russian repositioning of forces has been somewhat hampered by problems with rail transport, including reports of apparent sabotage
However, the increased supply of equipment to Ukraine has also begun to put stress on the rail network in Eastern Europe
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Captured Equipment
It was recently noted by the leading OSINT observer that equipment captured by Ukraine from Russia has now exceeded 1000 units
While there is not enough certainty around captured equipment to incorporate it into the force estimates at this time, there are increasing signs that captured equipment will be useful
Training on captured equipment
Repair
The ability to repair damaged heavy equipment has been reduced on the Ukrainian side by heavy damage to the tank factory in Kharkiv and missile attacks on the factory in Lviv
However, the Ukrainians have found new techniques to repair heavy equipment
This process appears to be increasingly systematized
Here is a discussion about Ukrainian thoughts on repairing damaged and captured equipment
and a video report
Unfortunately, Russia has begun to target these facilities. There was a recent strike on a facility in Kyiv that was until recently a tank storage facility
Impressive Two Tank Graveyards in Ukraine - Urbex Tour Tanks, missile launchers, barbed wire and other all this on the outskirts of Kiev within easy reach of the inhabited buildings. https://www.urbextour.com/en/kyiv-urbex/impressive-two-tank-graveyards-in-ukraine/
New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
The rate of supply of weapons to Ukraine remains high, with the arrival of 8-10 flights worth of equipment per day
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The US is confident it can get sufficient supplies to Ukraine before the resumption of a concerted Russian offensive
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A pentagon official has stated that it takes 4 days to ship weapons to near Ukraine’s borders and 1-2 days to distribute in the country
In addition to the announcements of armoured vehicles destined for Ukraine from the UK, the Czech Republic and Australia we have many new announcements.
The first of the Australian Bushmaster vehicles have begun to arrive and video has circulated of what is believed to be some Czech and Slovakian equipment on the move towards Ukraine
US supplies alone have been substantial, with the heaviest of the newly announced supplies being Humvees, M113 APCs and Mi-17 helicopters
There was speculation that Ukraine could purchase vehicles, possibly Leopard tanks, from German manufacturer Rheinmetall
rnd.de/politik/rheinm…
Germany has announced funding for Ukrainian purchases of military equipment worth between $1B and $2B USD
Germany To Provide Over 1 Billion Euros' Military Aid To Ukraine The German government on Friday said it plans to release more than a billion euros in military aid for Ukraine, amid complaints by Kyiv it is not receiving heavy weapons from Berlin. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ger...billion-euros-military-aid-to-ukraine-2892302
Rheinmetall will der Ukraine 50 Leopard-Panzer schicken Panzer aus deutscher Produktion könnten schon bald die ukrainische Armee in ihrem Kampf gegen die russischen Truppen verstärken. Denn der Rüstungskonzern Rheinmetall stellt sich darauf ein, bis zu 50 … https://www.rnd.de/politik/rheinmet...nzer-schicken-TPV2TCVFLXBD6UTDGEZ7UC7EI4.html
Canada has promised to provide light armoured vehicles as well
We have received the first details of French commitments to Ukraine
On the note of domestically produced Ukrainian weaponry, we have background information on previous statements about production capacity for Neptune antiship missiles and some estimates of current inventory
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Training of Ukrainian personnel
In addition to previously discussed training of Ukrainian military personnel in the US on the Switchblade systems and a Lithuanian training program, several other announcements have been made about training
It is reported that small units of the Ukrainian military will soon begin to be trained in Poland by the US military
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The UK has announced it will train Ukrainians on the vehicles it plans to provide
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