1. This is called "Preparing the Battlefield" by Ukraine.
Let's talk about
logistics, Starlink & Ukraine's southern front.
2. All #railroad-based resupply of RU in southern Ukraine cut to...
#Melitopol, #Enerhodar, #NovaKakhovka (northeastern #Kherson Oblast via #Kakhovka #hydroelectric dam & rail x-ing), #Tokmak, #Berydansk and #Mariupol (from west)
3. Ukraine's destruction of these railway bridges require far more exposure of the declining Russian tactical truck fleet to Ukrainian ATGM/Mortar/Drone kill teams in the south.
-> #Ukraine: A curious buggy (all terrain vehicle) armed with a Stugna-P anti-tank guided missile was recently destroyed in the vicinity of Izium, #Kharkiv Oblast.
Such vehicles are currently used by many Ukrainian hit-and-run and raid teams in the region.
4.
This is a defacto operational truck lift per day kill in terms of delivered supplies at Kherson.
It also exposes Russian Railway Troops trying to fix those bridges
to Ukraine's new loitering munitions:
- Like the
Polish WARMATE. #Ukraine: Few hours ago two Ukrainian Polish-made WARMATE loitering munitions armed with high-explosive warheads were shot down by the Russian forces in Enerhodar, #Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
-
The US Switchblade 300 & 600. Switchblade 600 that has the same anti-tank warhead as a Javelin missile.
5. Michael Kofman makes clear in this latest 'War on the Rocks' podcast that
Russia at its current level of mobilization has just ONE! more offensive in them, in Donbas & is perilously short of infantry, lots of reasons. You all need to listen to it:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/
6. The offensive in the Donbas & shortage of Russian infantry means
Ukraine can infest the countryside in the South with those missile armed ATV/Buggy's.
Moving at night with Western NVG & hiding during the day means RuAF helicopters can't interdict them.
7. With (@elonmusk) Starlink ukrainians can communicate with Ukrainian high command to coordinate & synchronize strikes across the whole of the southern theater with post-strike video uploaded in short digital encrypted bursts.
"I want to say one thing: @elonmusk's Starlink is what changed the war in #Ukraine's favour. #Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can't. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol."
Starlink is widely used in Ukraine because it's really hard to jam Starlink.
- EW 101 -- the best place for a jammer is between a transmitter and a receiver.
- Thousands of Starlink satellites mean it's impossible to do that without the right software.
- Ukrainians soldiers use this gift (Starlink) everywhere. And send greetings from the front (hot spot). #Ukraine #Starlink #UkraineRussiaWar
8. ...in the Starlink receivers.
Software that SpaceX wrote for 2nd gen receivers _AFTER_ the war in Ukraine began at no cost to Ukraine.
Believe me when I say the US three letter national security agencies NOTICED that.
9. Ukraine punched 40km of the 100km towards Mariupol yesterday before those bridges were blown. The Russian formations in the south have been staved of troops by the Kyiv & Donbas offensives since the beginning of the war. -> Apr 27: Polohy is still occupied. I called someone there and they said that the Russians still occupy it.
The only counter offensive that matches with this report is to go through Fedorivka.
10. This dual rail bridge destruction just hollowed out the Russian Southern front's logistics plus requires more combat vehicle escorts for truck convoys needed to replace railway shipments.
This further dilutes Russian Army combat power at the South where Ukraine is pushing.
11. Now to the gut punch of the thread !!
I believe Ukraine's 'right wing wheel' offensive in the south is imminent.
-> Ukraine has been able to replace losses in the South and Russia has not.
The survival of the Azov/Marine garrison in Mariupol means many of the 13 000 man Russian ground formations attacking there are still pinned screening it.
Since many of those 13K are dead or casualties
...there are little or no reinforcements for the Russian front lines in the south
And note, the Mariupol garrison still has Starlink communications to coordinate with Ukrainians outside Mariupol.
12. Ukrainian hearts will want to push to Mariupol, but Ukrainian strategists would want a push to put Crimea's air & sea facilities into Smersh BM-30 & GMLRS range.
Ravaging Russia's Crimean logistics facilities will do more to unhing Russia's military in the south than pushing ...a narrow relief corridor to Mariupol.
Crimea seriously threatened will collapse Russian positions across the south, possibly causing a southern front wide rout. This is the risk Russia is running by pushing it's last offensive into Donbas.
We will see if Ukraine wants to wait out the Russian's Donbas offensive or play for higher stakes right now. I think its going to be soon.
21/End
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