'Stanien ja entisten ussr alusmaiden irtautumisesta moskovasta oli puhetta, niin sopivasti osui eteen aihetta käsittelevä
twiitti-lanka. en muista täällä nähneeni, vaikka on syyskuun puolivälistä.
Thread. Russia's declining influence can be seen throughout the post-Soviet world and here's few signs:
* Vladimir Putin’s jet also landed in Uzbekistan – but president Shavkat Mirziyoyev was not there to welcome him, sending his Prime Minister Abdulla Oripov instead.
* On the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian forces are suffering from increasingly obvious manpower shortages that make a mockery of attempts to portray Russia as the world’s number two military power.
* The Kremlin has been forced to withdraw troops from deployments across the former Soviet states while also recruiting soldiers from among the Russian prison population.
* Russia’s withdrawal of nearly 1,000 troops from Armenia to bolster the faltering invasion of Ukraine was a signal to the countries of the South Caucasus that Kremlin influence in the region is in decline, which is likely to be filled by Turkey and other actors.
* Azerbaijan, which has pursued a multi-vector foreign policy and has not joined Russian-led initiatives, has used Moscow’s waning influence to bolster its geopolitical position in Karabakh and other areas of the South Caucasus.
* Even Georgia under pro-Kremlin oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili has not officially backed Ukraine over the Russian invasion and has instead joined Armenia in helping Moscow evade sanctions.
* Kazakhstan's president Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would not be recognizing the independence of the breakaway states in Eastern Ukraine that Vladimir Putin says he's liberating.
* Kazakhstan also didn't hold a military parade to celebrate the Soviet interpretation of its World War II victory
* Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan expanded cooperation in rerouting energy supplies to Europe bypassing Russia.
* Long-serving Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov spoke out in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
* In Moldova, which depends on Russian energy supplies and hosts hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, President Maia Sandu said her government is following Russia’s actions in Transnistria with “caution and vigilance.”
* A few days after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Moldova applied for European Union membership, along with Georgia and Ukraine.
* Even Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenko only managed to survive a prolonged popular uprising in the fall of 2020 once he received support from Putin.
The collective grievances of Belarus’s society have not been solved.
* Despite Russia's objections, Russian only remains a state language in Belarus, although it retains the status of an official language in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan...for now.
* Azerbaijan switched from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet in the early 1990s while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are at different stages of the same transition.
* Just four countries have joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and the intergovernmental military alliance the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has 6 members, Russia included.
* Large pro-Ukraine protests were held in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. Even in countries like Kyrgyzstan, where the government banned anti-war protests, a few brave activists still filled the streets.
* Russian culture is losing its dominant position among younger generations in post-Soviet states. These more diverse and new generations are formed by domestic as well as foreign influences, whether from Turkey, the Persian Gulf, or Europe.
Russia's weakening influence does not necessarily mean post-Soviet countries will seek a closer alignment with the West.
Political incumbents in Central Asia and the South Caucasus may be more inclined to seek closer ties with China and Turkey.
Post-Soviet states are not pawns that are moved around on Moscow's chessboard.
Russia’s neighbours are turning into active players in the international arena—and have not hesitated to play external powers against one another to extract maximum benefits.
* Central Asian states are becoming more like other countries in Asia and Africa—searching for multilateralism rather than solely attaching themselves to Russia.
Russia is just becoming just another neighbour, along with the EU, China, Turkey, and Iran.
* More people in former Soviet states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus now see Russia as an agressive neighbour engaging in genocidal violence rather than as an historic ally.
And Moscow's imperialistic and nationalist crusade in Ukraine is boosting this negative image.
It wouldn't surprise me if Uzbekistan like Kazakhstan in further undercutting Russian influence likely to develop energy infrastructure to pump oil and gas into existing networks that lead from Azerbaijan to Turkey and onward to Europe.
In a nutshell, Ukraine and Moldova are now within the EU sphere of influence.
Azerbaijan has bolstered a strategic alliance with Turkey
Georgia’s unnatural pro-Russian stance is going downhill.
Meanwhile, China has replaced Russia as the preeminent power in Central Asia.
Russia is just became China's junior partner after military fiasco in Ukraine and economic isolation from the West.
And yes, it was Ukraine that is serving as the catalyst for Russia’s retreat and opened pandora's box for Moscow.
