Antares
Respected Leader
Kopioin alkuperäisen haastattelun käännöksen (Google Translate) jos joku haluaa lukea enemmän - huom: otin väliotsikot pois mutta jätin kysymykset ja vastaukset ennalleen.
Tämä on pitkä haastattelu, mutta siinä käsitellään montaa asiaa mm. sodan jatko, ydinaseet, tilanne Valko-Venäjällä, Venäjän sisäinen vakaus ja hänen arvio mitä tapahtuu kun sota päättyy yms. ja tiedustelupäällikkö Kyrylo Budanov vastaukset kirjattu sanasta sanaan: LÄHDE
The head of the main intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, is considered one of the most accurate forecasters regarding the course of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine. That is why within the Orestocracy project he was asked the most frequent questions about Russian aggression: starting with when the occupiers will run out of missiles and drones, and ending with scenarios of palace coups and scenarios of victory.
Budanov: To begin with, we will go to the borders of 1991. And then the long-awaited will begin
Orest Sohar
War
10/18/2022 1:35 p.m
The head of the main intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, is considered one of the most accurate forecasters regarding the course of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine. That is why within the Orestocracy project he was asked the most frequent questions about Russian aggression: starting with when the occupiers will run out of missiles and drones, and ending with scenarios of palace coups and scenarios of victory.
- We are talking to you on days when Kyiv and other big cities, infrastructure facilities of the country are attacked by "Russian" "shahedes". Today, in particular, rockets flew after the "mopeds".Therefore, the first question arises by itself: what is the stockpile of resources of the Russians, how many missiles and drones do they have left, according to intelligence data?
- You must understand that the very fact of the Russian Federation switching to the use of foreign drones is in itself an extraordinary case for Russia, let's say so. This was "contributed" to the low accuracy of Russian missiles, as well as their small number. The Russian defense industry cannot produce enough new missiles, and the ones with which they entered the war on February 24 are already running out.
In many denominations, this number has already fallen below the critical level. I mean the 30% level. Therefore, they were forced to look for some options to overcome the shortage of missiles. They reached the point where they began to use Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles. Can they replace missiles by their characteristics? No, they cannot, but it must be assumed that there are a sufficient number of them now in the Russian Federation, and the accuracy of hitting UAVs is much higher than these missiles. This is what they count on.
- According to the concept of security, the Russians should leave some minimum for their own defense. It turns out that the Kremlin is so eager to prove something that it completely ignores the country's defense capabilities?
- That's how it is. For example: in terms of "Iskander" missiles, they have already approached the mark of 13% availability of missiles. The concept prohibits "dropping" below 30%, but the war makes its adjustments.
Such a picture is real now.
- That is, cooperation with Iran is very important for the Russian Federation. What batch of these flying "mopeds" can Russian soldiers count on?
- The first batch was ordered in the amount of 1,750 drones, then new orders followed, but the speed of their production and delivery to Russia, you must understand, is not a one-moment process. They are gradually exhausting them, the Iranians are making new ones, but there is another side to this issue: we consistently shoot down about 70% of all drones.
- If the Israelis give them so-called rifles to shoot down drones, will it help to increase the percentage of destruction?
- Unfortunately, this will not affect this situation in any way, and rifles will not solve the problem here, serious air defense systems are needed.
- Shouldn't we have air defense systems? At the last Ramstein, there was talk of creating an echeloned air defense system...
- The number of air defense systems supplied to us is absolutely insufficient to completely remove the missile threat. However, our domestic defense industry is working on solving this issue. In addition, we look for where to buy any air defense systems in the world ... and something is supplied to us.
- Tell me, please, what is known today about Putin's closest entourage: how they feel in a situation of absolute loss, because it is already obvious that they cannot win the war. Is some scenario of a coup, removing Putin from power, being considered?
- Putin's entourage is not a homogeneous mass, let's face it.
- Well, conditionally there is a newly-emerged block "Kadyrova-Prygozhina"
- Well, this is not the block of Kadyrov and Prigozhin. There is something called the Kremlin towers. In other words, some of them are conditional "doves", others are conditional "hawks". Both of these towers understand that things are very bad, they just have "slightly" different opinions on how to get out of this situation.
Some clearly understand that it is necessary to stop and look for some kind of peaceful settlement, others believe that Russia will cease to exist if they do not go further, if they are defeated, let's say that. Therefore, a new thesis has now appeared, by the way, the Russian leadership has already openly expressed it: our main task is not to lose. It's no longer about winning, it's about not losing. "We cannot allow ourselves to lose", "the main thing is not to lose", and so on, the interpretations are different, but this is the message.
I agree with him here: Russia's defeat is inevitable, it cannot be stopped, and it will lead to its destruction.
- What "scenarios and destructions" do you see?
- If, as they say, the branch of supporters of peace wins, then they will be able to admit that "it was all a mistake." The troops will move back, beyond the administrative border of 1991, and somehow overload relations with the whole world.
- Can you somehow personify them, who are these "pigeons"?
- I will move away from this, if possible.
- The hawks want to go all the way, right?
- They understand that in any configuration, at best, they face a solid prison term, so for them the continuation of the war is a matter of personal survival.
- What is the probability that the pigeons will win, and what does it look like in terms of time?
- Let's wait. The ending will be the same in any of these options. This is a modification of the Russian Federation.
- Currently, in Russia, all underground parking lots are being converted into bomb shelters, and nuclear exercises are taking place at the same time, and nuclear weapons tests are being prepared in the Barents Sea. What is this scenario? Was the situation incited or did they intend to "play hooligans" with warheads?
- Both the first and the second together.
First of all, all you mentioned now are the annual nuclear drills, this year they are called Thunder 2022. They take place almost synchronously with NATO exercises. However, the culmination of the "training" of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation is planned immediately after the end of the active phase of NATO exercises, with the sole purpose of showing that "we can do more." That is, no matter what NATO training shows now, they will launch at least one missile, but more. All this will take place in the north of the country, there will be launches from 3 nuclear submarine missile carriers, the launch of hypersonic missile weapons is being prepared, the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the launch of the RS-28, as well as the use of strategic non-nuclear forces, strategic and long-range aircraft, "Iskanders", launch of "calibres". Including for real purposes, etc.
- Again, are they ready to cross some line that the Americans called red and for which there will be a very strong retribution to the Russians? Are they really ready to use a tactical warhead somewhere in the Black Sea, or in the south of Ukraine, or in the west...
- The question is rhetorical. Are they ready to do it? No, not ready. I can explain very easily. They've been talking about it for so long, remember.
- The thesis that "they are not bluffing" sounded most clearly in September, but before that there were constant hints.
- It is already the middle of October, but they threatened back in September that "we will shoot now."
- Nuclear weapons in any country in the world are a means of deterrence. This, in principle, is not a weapon, but a tool, I repeat, of strategic deterrence. Can they theoretically use nuclear weapons? Theoretically, they can, it will only speed up the collapse of the Russian Federation, and they know and understand this very well. They are not as stupid as we would like them to be.
- You announced a reward for Girkin-Strelkov - 100 thousand dollars. Why is it so expensive and what is it for you?
- It is, in principle, not so expensive for such a person. It is an important carrier of information, and above all, for international criminal justice. In principle, as they say, he is a client of The Hague. He will not even be "ours".
- Well, you know for sure that he is somewhere in the Kherson region?
- One of his whereabouts is known, he has already arrived on the territory of occupied Ukraine, let's wait for everything else. There are chances. By the way, an interesting fact: in addition to all the slag that is sent to that phone number, several people appeared with absolutely real offers, and it was quite interesting for me. Let's see.
- I understand that GUR now has $100,000.
- GUR will find such money to help our colleagues from The Hague (laughs).
- This is exactly what I wanted to talk about: now the whole country is volunteering, helping the Armed Forces. How much support do you feel from the public and business?
- It's no secret that the volunteer movement in Ukraine is quite developed, it all started in 2014 and took a new turn after the events of February 24, and we are no exception in this sense. Many businessmen and foundations, various international organizations help us quite a lot. A lot of businessmen help, a lot of simply caring people, a lot of organizations, unions and so on. I will name a few surnames: Vodoviz Oleksandr, he brought us a lot of automobile equipment; Oleksiy Kavilin... and many other people, I just can't list them all from memory now. The volunteer movement has greatly developed us.
First of all, they help to solve our current problems. For example, it is known that motor vehicles today are just consumables, a car does not last long at the front, and a lot of them are needed. They fail or are destroyed, it must be replaced with something. It is often impossible to buy cars with state funds. Even holding procurement tenders takes some time, and transport is needed now. Well, thank God, caring people help.
- We constantly hear assurances that nothing is planned in Belarus, there is no preparation for an attack. But at the same time, a strange story is happening: first, some old Belarusian equipment is exported to Russia, and now some other is imported to Belarus, and it seems that the Russian group is getting stronger. Is it all to keep our contingent in good shape?
- This is one of the main goals: on the one hand, a group of so-called of the Union Republics, which should include units of the Armed Forces of Belarus and these terrorist groups of the Russian Federation. But in fact, on the territory of Belarus, at all bases of long-term storage, equipment is deconserved and transferred to the Russian Federation. It mostly goes to replenish losses in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Belarusians themselves do not have the forces that could frighten us so much, that is why Russia is transferring personnel there and mostly with automobile equipment, that is, it is just a picture. At least at this stage.
- What are your predictions for the development of the situation at the front in the near future?
- The heaviest battles are currently taking place in the area of the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar. The fiercest hostilities are currently taking place there... Well, to reveal the plans, I think it would be a little incorrect.
- What war scenario do you see by the end of the year?
- By the end of the year, we will make significant progress, these will be significant victories, you will soon see it.
- Could this be the liberation of Kherson?
- Well, I hope that it can be Kherson.
- What does the forecast for next year look like?
- At the end of spring, it should all end. Everything should be finished by the summer.
- "Completion" is an exit to the borders of 1991?
- First, let's go to these borders.
- You said, "to begin with, we will go to the borders of 1991." And what other plans are there?
- After the end of the war, a very serious political process related to changes in the current Russian Federation will begin: certain regions will be separated from Russia... Moscow will pay reparations to us, this is all waiting for them, it will lead to the shift of a certain economic center of the Russian Federation to our territory … that is, there are many very steps.
- And which regions will secede, will these be the Caucasian republics?
- Caucasians, I believe, will be the first to secede, it will not only be Caucasians.
- And who else?
- But there are many territorial problems, "Russian Federation" is one name for federalism.
This is too large a territory that has existed for quite a long time, it is not clear how, within these borders. It was based solely on faith in the power of the regime. As soon as the regime collapses, it will all fall apart.
- About half a year ago, OBOZREVATEL wrote with reference to sources that Putin is in a coma, and doubles work as his "face" instead. Later, somewhere similar information sounded from you. Is Putin alive, in your opinion?
- And this is another question to which I will not give an answer to the end. I can confirm that he had very significant health problems in the spring. Is he alive now? Let's wait for the moment when the transfer of power in the Russian Federation takes place, maybe only then we will be able to find out the truth: if he died, when did it happen, or if he is still alive, how will he end his life.
- About the transfer of power: there are actually 2 scenarios, the first is our victory and exit to the borders of 1991, and then some irreversible processes in Russia. But there is another scenario that you and I discussed before the interview: it could be the premature removal from power of the one we call Putin.
- It doesn't matter, it will all lead to the same thing. Remember what I told you about changing the rhetoric from "winning" to "not losing". In any case, their loss is the end.
- I don't understand at all how the Russians can not lose.
- Everything is very easy here. They went, as they say, all-in, they annexed the occupied Ukrainian territories for themselves; and now every village that we de-occupy is no longer a retreat of the Russian army or a tactical loss for them, it is a loss of the lands of the Russian Federation.
- Formally yes.
- For them it is so. For us it is "formal", but for them it is a legal loss of Russian territory. And how to explain to such a typical Russian that Ukraine took some city from the Russian Federation. Well, this is a revolution of his consciousness, well, "it can't be."
- Do you have a slice of social sentiment in Russia?
- Yes, we periodically do this.
- Can you share? How do the "scrapers" react to the latest events in the Russian Federation?
- Unfortunately, 82% absolutely support hostilities in Ukraine.
- That is, they were not affected by this "mobilization", as well as the fact that Russia will lose?
- For them, the realization of the factor that "perhaps our king is not so powerful" influenced them.
- But they still hate to fight with us, right?
- Unfortunately, we have to face the truth. We are not at war with the Russian regime, as many there believe, but, unfortunately, with the Russian people, 82% is the majority.
- Putin represents their interests at this stage.
- So. So it is.
- What are the forecasts for the change in the situation in the near future, before the New Year? After January 1? Won't the economy change for the better?
- Russia's economy is actually being transferred to a wartime regime, just like ours. This means that the lion's share of all costs will go to the defense industry, everything else - according to the residual principle. But not the economy, not "mobilization" will change the mood, but the loss of territories, when they say "Ukraine has recaptured another city", this is already something incredible, this cannot happen. Here the question arises, is Russia so powerful in our country? And they associate Russia exclusively with the figure of the leader. Do you remember how in the Soviet cinema: "The king is not real"... That's where everything started...
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