Twiitin kommentti:
Thomas Wood
Putin will now have to act. No effective military can function in this way.
Imagine what would happen if the Commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet or the Commanding General of the U.S. Army in Europe declared that he would not take orders from Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Secretary of Defense or Gen. Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Even worse for Putin, it’s not even clear that Putin *can* respond effectively, since Prigozhin declares that the Wagner PMC is “integrated into the overall system,” and he says that his forces would be damaged if he had to report to Shoigu (whom he regards as incompetent).
Decoded, this must mean what many have long suspected: that Prigozhin is supported by an anti-Shoigu, anti-Gerasimov dissident faction inside the security services and the military.
It is an interesting question whether Shoigu got Putin’s backing and approval before he demanded that the Russian PMCs, including Wagner, sign contracts with the MoD.
But even if Shoigu didn’t, it is clear that Putin cannot let Prigozhin get away with asserting complete independence from Shoigu and Gerasimov without publicly acknowledging that he has lost (and may never have had) full control over the Russian military forces operating in UKR (and 90% of those forces are in UKR).
When a country is engaged in a major war (which this is: Putin can call it whatever he wants) and the country’s military falls apart, the country falls apart.
Prigozhin and Girkin/Strelkov have long warned of a possible civil war in Russia. It's not impossible that this will lead to that.
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