Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Tuvalaisen aktivistin mukaan vähemmistökansat joutuu siksikin tykinruuaksi, että venäläiset voi leikkiä viattomia


Danhayaa Hovalyg, an activist from Russian Republic of Tyva, discusses why so many representatives of indigenous peoples from Russia are sent to the war in Ukraine.

"We are made the face of this war, so that later they can say that it was not Russians who killed Ukrainians. That Russians and Ukrainians are brothers," she thinks.
 
Ei taida poliisit ja palomiehet olla mitenkään innostuneita palkkasoturin tehtävistä. Oman alansa hommiin lähtijöitä löytyisi varmasti ja vielä enemmän jälleenrakennusvaiheessa.

Suomen kaltainen hyvinvointivaltio, jossa lähes kaikissa hommissa maksetaan säällistä palkkaa ei ole omiaan tuottamaan halukkaita palkkasotilaita.

Halua auttaa kyllä on ja esim. palokunnista on lähtenyt rekkakaupalla alan tarvikkeita Ukrainaan. Myös käyttökelpoisia paloautoja on mennyt lukuisia.
Olisin voinut jättää tietysti poliisit ja brankkarit mainitsematta mutta kun mainitsin ne ylenemismahdollisuudet niin tuli mainittua. Toki joku putkimies tai vaikka kirjastonhoitaja voivat olla yhtä hyvin parasta A-luokkaa, ei sitä ammatti ratkaise. Jos itse olisin menossa sinne niin liittyisin mieluiten ryhmään jossa olisi pari kokenutta ensihoitajaa :)
 
Washington Post -artikkeli Venäjän Shahed-136/131 droneja valmistavasta tehtaasta ja siitä vuodetuista dokumenteista. Lainaan alle ISW:n lyhyen twitter-ketjun sekä pidemmän, ISW:n viittaaman Washington Post -twitter-ketjun.

Laitan varsinaisen Washington Post -artikkelin tekstin ja kuvat spoilerin taakse näiden jälkeen:

Russian efforts to ramp up the domestic production of Iranian Shahed-136/-131 drones indicate that Russia aims to develop the long-term capability to conduct large strike series in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023

The Washington Post report indicates that Russia is struggling to produce its own variants of the Shahed drones at the pace and quality it desires.

Russia is likely dissatisfied with the quality of Shahed-131- and -136 drones it sources from Iran but likely seeks to retain Iran as a long-term strategic defense partner.

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Exclusive: A team of engineers had been secretly tasked with building a production line that would operate to churn out self-detonating drones, weapons that President Vladimir Putin’s forces could use to pummel Ukrainian cities, leaked documents show.

A retired official of Russia’s Federal Security Service was put in charge of security for the program.

The passports of highly skilled employees were seized so they could not leave the country.

In correspondence and other documents, engineers used coded language: Drones were “boats,” their explosives were “bumpers,” and Iran — the country covertly providing technical assistance — was “Ireland” or “Belarus.”

This was Russia’s billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran coming to life in November, 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region.

Its aim is to domestically build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 — enough to reverse the Russian army’s chronic shortages of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, on the front line.

If it succeeds, the new drone factory could help Russia preserve its dwindling supply of precision munitions, thwart Ukraine’s effort to retake occupied territory and advance Moscow’s position in the drone arms race that is remaking modern warfare.




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Washington Post -artikkelin teksti ja kuvat (jätin kolme kuvituskuvaa pois - artikkeli julkaistu 17.8.2023): LÄHDE

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help​

Leaked documents show that Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass-producing UAVs it could use to pummel Ukrainian cities


By Dalton Bennett and Mary Ilyushina
August 17, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help​

Leaked documents show that Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass-producing UAVs it could use to pummel Ukrainian cities


By Dalton Bennett and Mary Ilyushina
August 17, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

1692339140327.png
An industrial site several hundred miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region where U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia, with Iran’s help, is building a factory to produce attack drones for use in the war in Ukraine. (Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies)


The engineers at a once-bustling industrial hub deep inside Russia were busy planning. The team had been secretly tasked with building a production line that would operate around-the-clock churning out self-detonating drones, weapons that President Vladimir Putin’s forces could use to bombard Ukrainian cities.

A retired official of Russia’s Federal Security Service was put in charge of security for the program. The passports of highly skilled employees were seized so they could not leave the country. In correspondence and other documents, engineers used coded language: Drones were “boats,” their explosives were “bumpers,” and Iran — the country covertly providing technical assistance — was “Ireland” or “Belarus.”

This was Russia’s billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran coming to life in November, 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region. Its aim is to domestically build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 — enough to reverse the Russian army’s chronic shortages of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, on the front line. If it succeeds, the sprawling new drone factory could help Russia preserve its dwindling supply of precision munitions, thwart Ukraine’s effort to retake occupied territory and dramatically advance Moscow’s position in the drone arms race that is remaking modern warfare.

Although Western officials have revealed the existence of the facility and Moscow’s partnership with Tehran, documents leaked from the program and obtained by The Washington Post provide new information about the effort by two self-proclaimed enemies of the United States — under some of the world’s heaviest sanctions — to expand the Kremlin’s drone program. Altogether, the documents indicate that, despite delays and a production process that is deeply reliant on foreign-produced electronic components, Moscow has made steady progress toward its goal of manufacturing a variant of the Iranian Shahed-136, an attack drone capable of traveling more than 1,000 miles.

The documents show that the facility’s engineers are trying to improve on Iran’s dated manufacturing techniques, using Russian industrial expertise to produce the drones on a larger scale than Tehran has achieved and with greater quality control. The engineers also are exploring improvements to the drone itself, including making it capable of swarm attacks in which the UAVs autonomously coordinate a strike on a target.

1692339290834.png

Left: Construction of facilities Alabuga later used to establish a drone production line.
Right: Preliminary floor plan for part of the drone assembly line.

Researchers at the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, who reviewed the documents pertaining to the production process at the request of The Post, estimated that work at the facility in the Republic of Tatarstan’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone is at least a month behind schedule. The facility has reassembled drones provided by Iran but has itself manufactured only drone bodies, and probably for not more than 300 of the UAVs, the researchers concluded. Alabuga is unlikely to meet its target date for the 6,000 drones, they said.

Even so, David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who helped lead the research team that studied the documents, said: “Alabuga looks to be seeking a drone developmental capability that exceeds Iran’s.”

The Post obtained the documents from an individual involved in the work at Alabuga but who opposes Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The individual decided to expose details of the effort in the hope that international attention might lead to additional sanctions, potentially disrupting production and bringing the war to an end more quickly, the person told The Post.

“This was the only thing I could do to at least stop and maybe create some obstacles to the implementation of this project,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of safety concerns. “It has gone too far.”

The documents, dating from winter 2022 to spring 2023, include factory-floor blueprints, technical schematics, personnel records, memorandums provided to Iranian counterparts and presentations given to representatives of Russia’s Defense Ministry on the status of the effort code-named “Project Boat.” The Russian-language news outlet Protokol reported on some of the documents in July.

Source: Correspondence in January from Alabuga to Iranian officials

The team led by Albright and senior researcher Sarah Burkhard said the documents “appear authentic” and “go to great length to describe supply-chain procurement, production capabilities, manufacturing plans and processes, as well as plans to disguise and hide the production of Shahed drones.”

The research team found that the project faces challenges — including “doubt about its ability to reach its desired staffing levels” — but cautioned that Russia might be able to overcome those difficulties.

“Russia has a credible way of building over the next year or so a capability to go from periodically launching tens of imported Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian targets to more regularly attacking with hundreds of them,” Albright told The Post.

Albright said the disclosure of the records makes it difficult for Iran — which has publicly declared it is neutral in the war — to claim that it is not helping Moscow develop the ability to manufacture drones at Alabuga.

The Russian government and Alabuga did not respond to requests for comment from The Post. The Kremlin has dismissed reports that it is receiving assistance from Tehran on drones, saying that Russia relies on its own research and development.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations also did not respond to a request for comment.



‘The flying moped’​

While Russia has made breakthroughs in air defense and hypersonic missiles, its military was late to prioritize drone technology. To catch up, Moscow has had to turn to Iran, one of the few nations willing to sell it military hardware.

Last summer, Russia began receiving secret shipments of Iranian drones — many of them Shaheds that were quickly deployed to prop up its flagging war effort, U.S. and other Western officials have said.

Iran’s Shahed-136 — Russia calls the drone the Geran-2 — can carry a 118-pound explosive payload toward a target that is programmed in before launch. Because the drone is powered by a noisy propeller engine, some Ukrainians have dubbed it “the flying moped.”

The Iranian Shahed-136

Russia is working toward manufacturing a variant of the Iranian drone, which it calls the Geran-2, to supplement its dwindling stockpile of precision weapons. The drone can deliver small payloads of explosives in self-detonating attacks.

1692339456788.png

Sources: Defense Express, AeroVironment
WILLIAM NEFF/THE WASHINGTON POST

Russia’s drones have struck targets deep inside Ukraine, degrading Kyiv’s precious air defenses and allowing Moscow to preserve its more expensive precision-guided missiles. The attacks, often targeting critical civilian infrastructure, have had a devastating impact on Ukraine’s war effort, knocking critical power grids offline and destroying grain stockpiles, according to Vladyslav Vlasiuk, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Those drones are much cheaper to produce compared to the damage they cause, and this is the problem,” Vlasiuk told The Post.

In November, a Kyiv-based think tank became one of the first nongovernmental organizations to examine the wreckage from a Russian Geran-2 drone downed in Ukraine. It found that key parts — the motor and warhead — were produced by Tehran. “We knew the drone was from Iran,” said Gleb Kanievskyi, the founder of the StateWatch think tank.

That month, Iran acknowledged it had provided drones to Russia but said it had done so only before the start of the war.

In the past three months, Russia has attacked Ukraine with more than 600 of the self-detonating Shahed-136 drones, according to an intelligence assessment produced by Kyiv in July and obtained by The Post.

Conflict Armament Research, a weapons-tracking group based in Britain, examined two drones downed last month and concluded based on components it found that the Kremlin has started producing “its own domestic version of the Shahed-136.”

The Post reported in November that Russian and Iranian officials had finalized a deal in which the self-detonating drones would be produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, a government-backed manufacturing hub designed to attract foreign investment. The cooperation included the transfer of designs, training of production staff and provision of increasingly hard-to-source electronic components.

“This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors and to the international community,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in June as the Biden administration confirmed plans by the two countries to build a drone production facility. Kirby said the plant “could be fully operational next year.”

Under the deal, the new documents show, Tehran agreed to sell Moscow what is effectively a franchise, with Iranian specialists sharing project documentation, locally produced or reverse-engineered components, and know-how. A document created in February by the project’s chief manager details the parameters of the effort and estimates the cost for some aspects of the project to be 151 billion rubles, more than $2 billion at the exchange rate at the time. Under agreements reached earlier, more than half of that sum was to go to Iran, which insisted on being paid in dollars or gold because of the volatility of the ruble, the individual who provided the documents said.

The effort — at a facility larger than 14 football fields and set to be expanded — is to be separated into three stages, according to a planning document. The first envisioned Iran’s delivery of disassembled drones that would be reassembled at the facility. The second called for the facility to produce airframes — the hollow bodies of the drones — that would be combined with Iranian-supplied engines and electronics. In the final and most ambitious stage, more than 4,000 drones would be produced with little Iranian assistance and delivered to the Russian military by September 2025.

A three-stage plan

Below is a visualization of the production timeline, based on internal documents, that engineers set out late in 2022. Experts who reviewed the documents for The Post said work has probably been delayed. (jouduin leikkaamaan kuvan kahdessa osassa joten viivat eivät ihan kohtaa)

1692340686699.png
1692340764511.png


The analysis conducted for The Post by the Institute for Science and International Security found that the facility’s production plan “appears to be feasible” but has “vulnerabilities that could disrupt its ability to fulfill its contract … or at least delay the fulfillment.”

Scarce components​

The documents identify the sourcing of components required to build the Shahed-136 as an immediate challenge, after Western restrictions disrupted Russian access to foreign-produced electronics.

A detailed inventory, based on data provided to the Russians by Tehran, shows that over 90 percent of the drone system’s computer chips and electrical components are manufactured in the West, primarily in the United States. Only four of the 130 electronic components needed to build the drone are made in Russia, according to the document.

The research team led by Albright and Burkhard noted that none of the required items appears to be exclusively for use in military drones, and none is listed as a sensitive technology that is subject to export controls by the U.S. Commerce Department. The components would, however, fall under a near-blanket ban the United States recently imposed on the export of electronics to Russia, the team said.

The flight-control unit, used to pilot the drone, comprises 21 separate electronic components manufactured by the Dallas-based company Texas Instruments. At least 13 electronic components manufactured by the Massachusetts-based company Analog Devices are present in all of the drone’s major circuit boards, including an accelerometer critical for the craft’s operation that allows the UAV to navigate along a preprogrammed route if the GPS signal is lost.

One document highlights the need to develop a supply channel for various American components, including a Kintex-7 FPGA, a processor used in the drone’s navigation and communication system, made by a company that was acquired last year by California-based AMD. Without elaborating, another spreadsheet notes the domestic availability of Western-made components inside Russia and lists U.S.-based electronics distributors Mouser and DigiKey as potential suppliers.

AMD, DigiKey, Texas Instruments and Analog Devices told The Post that they comply with all U.S. sanctions and global export regulations and work to ensure that the products they make or distribute are not diverted to prohibited users. Mouser did not respond to requests for comment.

The documents do not suggest that any Western company directly supplied Iran or Russia with components used in production of the drone.

In response to questions from The Post, the White House said U.S. officials have worked to prevent Moscow from obtaining technology that might be used in its war against Ukraine and have imposed sanctions against those involved in the transfer of Iranian military equipment to Russia.

“As Russia searches for ways to evade our actions, the U.S. government, alongside allies and partners, will continue to ramp up our own efforts to counter such evasion,” Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said in a statement.

According to a breakdown of material requirements along with the status of negotiations with suppliers, Alabuga specialists were able to promptly source the materials required for manufacturing the airframe. Most of those components are supplied by Russian or Belarusian companies, and the Chinese company Metastar provided a sample of a material used to make the wings, the breakdown shows.

Metastar did not respond to a request seeking comment.

Other components proved harder to obtain. Documents highlighted a problem that perpetually plagues Russian military production: the lack of a capable domestic engine industry. The Shahed-136 is powered by a reverse-engineered German Limbach Flugmotoren L550E engine, which Iran illicitly obtained two decades ago.

To reach the final stage of the project, Russia would have to come up with its own version of the engine, which engineers described in internal documents as their most complex task. A spreadsheet created by a senior engineer on Nov. 5, titled “Questions asked to Iran at the very beginning of cooperation,” listed a request for a copy of the engine as “the most important point.”

“Better two: one to take apart, and after the chemical analysis it will not be functional; the second one is for comparative tests. The propeller is also needed for testing,” the engineer wrote. “We’ll copy it too.”

The questions — over 120 in total — were separated into thematic categories that include “policy” and “warhead,” and requested details on how Iran achieved mass production. They also asked “which countries are suppliers of electronic components.” The documents obtained by The Post do not show a response to that question.

The Alabuga team also requested a meeting with Mado, an Iranian company that produces engines and other components for UAVs with the help of illicitly obtained Western technology. Western governments imposed sanctions on the company late last year for its contribution to the war in Ukraine.

Subsequent documents include a detailed description of the re-engineered Limbach engine, known as the Mado MD550. The authors indicated that the description was compiled on the basis of the information “provided by Mado specialists.”

Efforts to reach Mado for comment were not successful.

Despite those challenges, Alabuga engineers have worked to improve the drones, the documents show. They have swapped out malfunctioning Chinese electronic components for more-reliable analogues, and they replaced a glue the Russians deemed defective and added waterproofing in a design overhaul of the airframe.



Struggling to staff up​

Documents show that Alabuga has struggled to fill specialized positions at the facility, which was to have 810 employees for each of three shifts per day. The production team lacked experts in key and highly complex areas of drone development including electronic warfare systems.

Numerous Alabuga employees have traveled to drone manufacturing centers in Iran to gain expertise, according to personnel documents. Delegations included project managers and engineers, along with students and manual laborers.

While one group was visiting Tehran on Jan. 29, Israeli’s external intelligence service, the Mossad, carried out a strike on a weapons factory in the Iranian city of Isfahan, leaving flames billowing from a site believed to be a production hub for drones and missiles. Alabuga’s managers and engineers were forbidden to leave their hotel as Iranian officials worried that Israel might strike facilities the group was supposed to tour, according to the individual who provided the documents.

The documents also reveal that Central Asian workers who held low-level jobs at Alabuga were sent to Iran because they speak a language similar to Farsi. They were supposed to observe the assembly process on Iranian production sites, interpret for the rest of the delegation and undergo training that would allow them to build drones back in Russia.
By end of spring, an estimated 200 employees and 100 students had received training at the Iranian facilities, according to the documents and the individual.

Students from the local polytechnic university were required to work at the Alabuga factory as part of their curriculum, the Russian news outlet Razvorot reported in July.

Alabuga also has sought to recruit young people for menial assembly-line positions, with glitzy ads promising “a career of the future” and subsidized housing. One ad posted on Alabuga’s Telegram channels invites women ages 16 to 22 to relocate to the site and “build a promising career in the largest center for training specialists in the UAV production,” with a wage starting at $550 a month.

At the same time, the individual said, some workers have been uncomfortable with the idea of developing drones to pummel Ukraine and discontented by what they view as long work hours and poor management. To keep staffers and lure talent from rival manufacturers, Alabuga boosted salaries, budget documents show, with some key workers earning 10 times the median Russian salary. Management created obstacles to prevent employees from quitting, including seizing passports and requiring workers to seek sign-off before leaving their positions, according to the individual.



Damaged drones​

The Russians had issues in dealing with the Iranian side. An estimated 25 percent of the drones shipped from Iran for Alabuga’s use and delivered by Russian Defense Ministry aircraft were damaged, according to the documents and the individual who provided them.

One document from February includes a log of damaged or faulty drones received in a second shipment of the UAVs from Iran — separated into the categories of “big boats” and “small boats,” which refer to the Shahed-136 and the Shahed-131, respectively, despite Alabuga’s mainly being interested in the former. The document indicates that 12 of the Iranian drones in the Feb. 15 delivery were inoperable, including one irreparably damaged when it was dropped on the ground.

“That was an interesting moment, because the initial agreement with Iran concerned only big Shahed drones, as the smaller 131 model is pretty useless — its payload is ten times lower compared to the 136 model, and it can maybe blow up a car,” the individual said. “But as you can see, Iran pressed its own conditions for the deal and supplied smaller models, many of them broken.”

The log shows that the Russian team lacked the expertise and replacement parts to repair the damaged or malfunctioning drones.

The team struggled to meet initial deadlines. A February memo shows that project managers warned their higher-ups about a 37-day delay in the schedule as communications with Iran were slowed by the Russian Defense Ministry’s bureaucracy and Iran’s failure to provide some technical documentation.

“Iranians aren’t used to working according to some high European standards, and I suspect they didn’t have a ready set of all documentation,” the person said.

Technicians suggested reverse-engineering a drone already in the possession of Russia’s Defense Ministry to create their own project documentation, but the request was denied as their managers feared it would be perceived as a failure on Alabuga’s part by military officials in Moscow, according to the individual.

“There was a political moment that if we say that we don’t have something, it would show our weakness and inability to implement such a complex project, so all problems were being swept under the rug,” the individual said.

Delivery of the drones and equipment to the production facility also was a challenge. The first Iranian shipments arrived at Begishevo Airport in Tatarstan with little advance notice. Staffers at Alabuga scrambled to sort out the basic logistics of transporting the cargo back to their warehouse, the individual said.

In one instance, after securing trucks to transport the shipment, the staffers realized they did not have a forklift to load the heavy wooden crates full of disassembled drones. An employee was dispatched to a nearby business to find an off-loader, only to realize after finding one that no one was qualified to operate it.

The individual related that boxes of drones were first stored in a nearly empty warehouse as the facility was not yet prepared even for simple tasks such as reattaching parts of the UAV body that had been disassembled for transportation.

“So they just unboxed them and tried to reassemble on the floor,” the individual added. “At the same time, they wanted to show the Defense Ministry that the process was ongoing, the facilities are being built, so they bought some tables and did a photo shoot to show how they are supposedly actively assembling these drones.”

High-ranking officials at Alabuga spent a week taking and retaking photos, according to the individual.

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By Dalton Bennett
Dalton Bennett is a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and researcher at The Washington Post, where he has worked since 2016 after five years covering conflict with the AP. Twitter

By Mary Ilyushina
Mary Ilyushina, a reporter on the Foreign Desk of The Washington Post, covers Russia and the region. She began her career in independent Russian media before joining CNN’s Moscow bureau as a field producer in 2017. She has been with The Post since 2021. She speaks Russian, English, Ukrainian and Arabic. Twitter
 
Viimeksi muokattu:

Sitä kovempi asiantuntija mitä negatiivisemmat lausunnot. Naurettavaa hommaa edelleen. Tai sitten nämä on ihan pihalla mitä rintamilla tällä hetkellä tapahtuu.
 
Olisin voinut jättää tietysti poliisit ja brankkarit mainitsematta mutta kun mainitsin ne ylenemismahdollisuudet niin tuli mainittua. Toki joku putkimies tai vaikka kirjastonhoitaja voivat olla yhtä hyvin parasta A-luokkaa, ei sitä ammatti ratkaise. Jos itse olisin menossa sinne niin liittyisin mieluiten ryhmään jossa olisi pari kokenutta ensihoitajaa :)
Sama "vika" se on putkimiehissä ja muissa.

Saavat ihan kelvollista palkkaa, eikä palkkasotiluus oikein innosta. Edut ja riskit eivät kohtaa.
 
Ompa tuonne mennyt kakkoserää ottamaan useita suomalaisia jotka on välissä käynyt Suomessa tuulettumassa.

Spoileri kuvottavan twitteriin hukkuneen uutispätkän takia, omalla vastuulla lukekaa:
moni x/twittertili jakoi uutista, jossa kerrottiin Khersonin vapauttamisen jälkeen seksuaaliväkivaltaa kokeneiden eskari/ala-asteikäisten tyttöjen hoidosta. Ilmeisesti moni uhri on kokenut niin järkyttävää väkivaltaa että väliliha vaginan ja peräaukon välillä on muodostunut avanteeksi. Uutinen itsessään on hukkunut jonnekin enkä ensimmäisenä sitä tänne linkkaisikaan. Kuvottaa jo tämän tekstin kirjoitus kun itsellä on tuon ikäinen tyttölapsi. Mutta siinä päivittäinen viha-annos ja muistutus ruski miristä, mikäli sellaista kaipaa
 
Washington Post -artikkelin teksti ja kuvat (jätin kolme kuvituskuvaa pois - artikkeli julkaistu 17.8.2023): LÄHDE

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help​

Leaked documents show that Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass-producing UAVs it could use to pummel Ukrainian cities


By Dalton Bennett and Mary Ilyushina
August 17, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
Jatkoa edellisen viestin asiaan, tässä tarkempi kuva tehtaan väitetysti pohjapiirustuksesta (tekstit häviävät kuvan kopioimisen myötä, mutta löytyvät lainatusta viestistä spoilerin takaa):

1692341089714.png


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Koostin artikkelissa kerrotun tavoiteaikataulun numerot taulukon muotoon:

1692341175908.png

Tämän mukaan suunnitelma on siis ollut, että ensimmäisessä vaiheessa laitoksessa kootaan Iranin toimittamista kiteistä toimivia droneja. Samaan aikaan 1.4.2023 alkaen on ollut tarkoitus, että laitos kykenisi valmistamaan itse dronejen rungon (airframes) mutta varsinaiset sisuskalut saadaan edelleen Iranin toimittamina. Tämä toinen vaihe jatkuisi vuoden 2023 loppuun, minkä jälkeen laitoksen pitäisi kyetä valmistamaan tai hankkimaan kaikki tarvittavat komponentit itsenäisesti.

Toistaiseksi "tilauksen" takaraja on 30.7.2025 ja tänä aikana laitoksen pitäisi kyetä valmistamaan näiden kolmen vaiheen summana 6 000 kpl Shahed-136/131 drojena / niiden venäläistettyä versiota.

Nyt eletään 18.8.2023 joten tavoiteaikataulun mukaan ensimmäisen vaiheen pitäisi olla ohi ja toisen vaiheen puolivälissä. Kykeneekö laitos valmistamaan 170-180 kpl droneja per kuukausi? Entä kykeneekö se valmistamaan niiden rungot itse? Samaan aikaan laitoksen pitäisi valmistella muita tuotannon yksityiskohtia, koska itsenäisen tuotannon pitäisi alkaa 2.1.2024 eli neljän ja puolen kuukauden kuluttua.

Mietin myös tätä: onko tarkoitus jatkaa dronejen ostamista Iranista samalla kun oma tuotanto käynnistetään? Entä voiko tavoiteaikataulussa annettuja numeroita soveltaa Iranin omaan dronetuotantoon? JOS tässä on käytännössä kopioitu 1:1 Iranin tyyli valmistaa näitä, niin samalla tuotantomäärät per kuukausi voisivat olla otettu sellaisenaan Iranilta. Koska kyseessä on modernimpi laitos tai ehkä myös suurempi / useita tuotantolinjoja, niin kenties tuo kolmannen vaiheen tavoite on suurempi kuin Iranin nykyinen kapasiteetti?

Artikkelissa väitetään näin (alleviivaus minun): The documents show that the facility’s engineers are trying to improve on Iran’s dated manufacturing techniques, using Russian industrial expertise to produce the drones on a larger scale than Tehran has achieved and with greater quality control.

Tämän perusteella Iranin nykyinen tuotantokapasiteetti olisi pienempi kuin se mitä Venäjä suunnittelee.

Muistetaan kuukauden vanha Budanov haastattelu jossa sivuttiin myös Shahed-136/131 dronejen toimituksia, kirjoitin silloin näin: LINKKI

Muutama päivä sitten tähänkin ketjuun lainattiin Ukrainan GUR:n päällikön Budanovin tuore haastattelu (Warzone), lainaan siitä pätkä alle (artikkeli julkaistu 29.6.2023 - alleviivaukset minun): LÄHDE

TWZ: The last time we talked, you said that Russia was on the verge of receiving short-range ballistic missiles from Iran as well as more drones. Is that still the case?

KB: As of today, there are no Iranian ballistic missiles in Russia or in Ukraine. Speaking of drones, they are used at large scale.

TWZ: Do you anticipate Russia getting more drones from Iran?

KB: New batches of drones from Iran are coming constantly to the Russian Federation.

TWZ: How many?

KB: Usually one batch is 50 to 70 drone per time. And it happens quite regularly, once every two weeks, sometimes every three weeks.


TWZ: Do the Russians have enough missiles to continue barrages against Ukraine?

KB: As you see from the recent strikes, they've reduced the numbers of missiles they're using first strike each time. So the answer is no. They are no longer able to conduct the same attacks which they did last fall. So if you excuse us, we have to go.

TWZ: Thank you very much as always.

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Budanovin mukaan yhden toimituserän koko olisi 50-70 kpl ja näitä eriä toimitettaisiin kerran kahdessa viikossa, joskus joka kolmas viikko.

Kerran kahdessa viikossa voisi tarkoittaa "kaksi erää per kuukausi" mikä puolestaan tarkoittaisi:

2 x 50 = 100
2 x 70 = 140

Eli 100-140 kpl per kuukausi.

Toisaalta hän sanoo että joskus toimituserien aikaväli on kolme viikkoa, mikä tarkoittaisi että eivät ole kyenneet ylläpitämään tätä tahtia koko sodan ajan.

Tuossa puhutaan yleisesti "droneista" joten ei voida olla varmoja, tarkoitetaanko pelkästään Shahed-136/131 itsemurhadroneja vai lasketaanko mukaan erilaiset tiedustelun dronet kuten Mojaherit yms. mitä Iran on toimittanut myös.

Joka tapauksessa mielenkiintoinen tiedonmurunen Budanovilta, pitääpä tutkia miten tämä sopii yhteen Ukrainan ilmoittamien Shahed-136/131 dronejen torjuntojen kanssa (mikä ei tarkoita tietysti laukaisujen määrää kokonaisuudessaan, ainoastaan torjutuiksi ilmoitetujen määrää).


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MUOKKAUS: nyt kun katsoo tuota tehtaan väitettyä pohjapiirustusta, niin siinä on kolme kokoonpanolinjaa rinnakkain - tai ainakin rungon valmistukseen ja kokoonpanoon sekä maalaukseen on kolme linjaa. Näiden lisäksi on erikseen moottorien kokoonpano, avionic kokoonpano yms. mutta ei ole selvää, missä tiloissa nämä asennetaan runkoihin. Tuskin kuitenkaan samoilla linjoilla, joissa runkojen kokoonpano tehdään ja vieläpä ennen maalausta?

Satelliittikuvissa näkyy kaksi suunnilleen samankokoista rakennusta vierekkäin. Mietin, onko tässä tarkoitus olla kaksi samanlaista tehdasta rinnakkain vai onko toinen rakennus muuta käyttöä varten? Toisaalta Washington Post artikkelin mukaan näiden rakentaminen on alkanut jo vuonna 2021 eli ennen Ukrainaan hyökkäämistä ja rakennukset olisi otettu dronejen tuotannon käyttöön vasta sen jälkeen (tosin puhutaan myös laajentamissuunnitelmista).

Joka tapauksessa, jos on kolme runkojen kokoonpanolinjaa rinnakkain, silloin yhden linjan tavoitekapasiteetti on toisen vaiheen suunnitelman mukaan:

170 - 180 / 3 = 56,67 - 60 per kuukausi

Kolmannessa vaiheessa yhden linjan tavoiteltu kapasiteetti olisi:

226 / 3 = 75,333... per kuukausi

Toisin päin nähtynä: toisessa vaiheessa tavoite on, että valmistuisi 2 kpl runkoja (ja arvatenkin droneja itsessään) per päivä per tuotantolinja. Kolmannessa vaiheessa tavoite olisi 2,5 kpl per päivä per tuotantolinja. Näin siis keskiarvoisesti, jos laskee että kuukaudessa on 30 päivää ja tuotantoa tehdään jokaisena päivänä ilman poikkeuksia. Washington Post artikkelissa puhutaan kolmesta vuorosta per päivä ja mainitaan ohimennen toisessa lauseessa "wor around the clock" eli tuotanto jatkuisi kellon ympäri eli koko päivän ajan.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Ompa tuonne mennyt kakkoserää ottamaan useita suomalaisia jotka on välissä käynyt Suomessa tuulettumassa.

Spoileri kuvottavan twitteriin hukkuneen uutispätkän takia, omalla vastuulla lukekaa:
moni x/twittertili jakoi uutista, jossa kerrottiin Khersonin vapauttamisen jälkeen seksuaaliväkivaltaa kokeneiden eskari/ala-asteikäisten tyttöjen hoidosta. Ilmeisesti moni uhri on kokenut niin järkyttävää väkivaltaa että väliliha vaginan ja peräaukon välillä on muodostunut avanteeksi. Uutinen itsessään on hukkunut jonnekin enkä ensimmäisenä sitä tänne linkkaisikaan. Kuvottaa jo tämän tekstin kirjoitus kun itsellä on tuon ikäinen tyttölapsi. Mutta siinä päivittäinen viha-annos ja muistutus ruski miristä, mikäli sellaista kaipaa
Tuo kyseinen twiitti oli täälläkin jaettu.
Barbaariset on ryssän tavat jos pitää paikkaansa...😥
 
Heh, eilinen tiputus Robotynessä. Alligaattori mätkähtää kuin jauhosäkki, toiselle muistui mieleen että hellan levy taisi jäädä päälle lähtiessä.


Tämän mukaan olisi pudotettu RBS-70 MANPADS:illa:

Footage of the Russian Kamov Ka-52 which got shot down by the 47th Brigade using a RBS-70 MANPADS near Robotoyne.

Source:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110431

 
Brady Africk vertaillut Berdyanskin lentokentän satelliittikuvia, ensimmäinen otettu 2.7.2023 ja toinen 16.8.2023. Kuvista näkee että kentällä on enemmän koptereita JA niille on kaivettu suojavalleja, arvatenkin pyritään suojaamaan iskuilta (ainakin osaksi).

Aikaisemmin ollut kirjoituksia että mm. Ka-52 kopterin mutta myös muut operoineet tältä kentältä. Pitäisin näitä kuvia vahvistuksena sille, että operoivat edelleen. En myöskään usko, että kopterit juurikaan vaihtaisivat paikkaa, koska miksi muuten olisi nähty tällainen vaiva kaivantojen yms. tekemiseen?

Helikopterit olisi toki teoriassa helppo hajauttaa, koska ne voivat laskeutua melkein minne vain, mutta syystä tai toisesta ryssä ei ole mokomaan ruvennut. Hajautetun kaluston huolto ja vartioiminen on toki selvästi vaikeampaa kuin keskitettyjen. Sama juttu kaluston korjaamisen osalta, se vaatii osaavan henkilökunnan, varaosat, työkalut, hallit yms. eikä näitä ole helppoa hajauttaa pitkin maita ja mantuja. Toisaalta johtaminen ja hyökkäysten koordinointi on helpompaa jos kopterit on keskitetty, varsinkin jos viestivälineet ja johtamisvälineet eivät ole parasta laatua.

Liekö tuossa riittävästi syitä miksi kopterit on keskitetty yhdelle kentälle (toki jokin määrä operoi myös toisilta kentiltä mm. Taganrog) vai tuleeko vielä mieleen muita selityksiä?

Russian forces continue digging new revetments to protect vehicles and equipment at the airport in occupied Berdyansk.

This site is used as a base for Russian helicopters operating over southern Ukraine.


Katso liite: 82564

Katso liite: 82565

Omituista toimintaa ryssiltä keskittää noin arvokasta tavaraa Storm Shadown kantamalle. Vai yltääkö tuonne melkein Himarsillakin? Maallikolle ei tule mieleen muita syitä kuin järjen köyhyys tai se, että kopterit ovatkin valemaaleja.
 
Ka-52:ssa on heittoistuimet. Lavojen pultit räjäytetään pois ja ukot istuimineen lähtee sitten.
Tässä vähän tarkempaa selostusta:

"When the pilot realizes that he needs to urgently leave the helicopter, he puts the system into action, at that moment the blades are shot off, a hole is burned with a special pyro cord in the cockpit glazing, and then the ejection rocket engine fires. For a special halyard, he pulls the pilot out of the cockpit, after which a parachute opens at a safe distance. This system allows crew to catapult almost from the ground and from an extremely low altitude, on which attack helicopters are usually used."

Eli näemme videossa tuon heittoistuimeen kuuluvan raketin toiminnassa. Sitä videossa ei näy aukesiko laskuvarjo. Todennäköisesti kyllä.
 
Ukrainasta Odessan satamasta keskiviikkona liikkeelle lähtenyt konttialus on saapunut määränpäähänsä Istanbulin tuntumaan. Alus oli ensimmäinen, joka pääsi matkaan Mustanmeren viljasopimuksen purkautumisen jälkeen.

Ukrainan presidentti Volodymyr Zelenskyin mukaan alus käytti uutta "humanitaarista käytävää". Hongkongin lipun alla seilaava alus kulki läheltä Mustanmeren länsirantaa kansainvälisiä vesiä välttäen, käy ilmi meriliikennettä seuraavan Marine Traffic -sivuston seurannasta.

Mustanmeren sopimuksesta viime kuussa irtautunut Venäjä on sanonut voivansa hyökätä Ukrainan satamia käyttäviä aluksia vastaan.

(STT-AFP)
Olen ajatellut jotenkin suoraviivaisesti, että Odessaan matkaavien laivojen kannattaisi purjehtia Natomaan lipun alla, mutta tuo Hongkong onkin astetta kierompi valinta.
 

Novorossiysk on Venäjän tärkein satama Mustallamerellä ainakin öljyn viennin näkökulmasta. Lisäksi hyvin tärkeä satama sotilasalusten kannalta, siellä on huomattava määrä niitä.

Tämä toinen lähde kirjoittaa konttiterminaalista (container terminal) mutta sinun toisessa viestissä puhutaan myös öljytynnyreistä (barrels of oil are burning and exploding). Mitä lie palaakaan, tulee vaikuttamaan vientiin ja sataman käyttöön ainakin väliaiaikaisesti, mikä on tietysti kaikki plussaa.

A major fire broke out at the Russian sea port of Novorossiysk. The container terminal is on fire.

Source:
https://t.me/c/1192373108/30590

 
Juoruilua, jonka mukaan Shoigu laitettaisiin syrjään tehtävistään viimeistään kuukauden kuluttua. Liekö totta vai keksittyä, tiedäpä näistä. Vaikka näin tapahtuisikin, vaikuttaisiko se mihinkään?

Lainaan käännöksen alle:

Shoigu will be dismissed in a month?

General Teplinskiy told what they are talking about at the front Among the military at the front, there are rumors that Sergei Shoigu will be dismissed until mid-September at the latest, and after that the situation in the NVO zone will seriously improve.

This opinion, in particular, is shared by Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinskiy, one of the supporters of changing the defense minister.

“Sergei Kuzhugetovich stayed too long at his post, everyone understands this. He does not react in any way to sound ideas for improving the situation at the front, and we We are losing not only territories, but also people. It’s time to stop,” said a military man close to Teplinsky.

According to him, the general had heard in recent weeks from many at the front that Putin would soon fire Shoigu.

"On the resignation of the Minister of Defense not only officers speak, but also ordinary military men. Everyone is waiting for this. There is information that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is preparing to replace the Minister of Defense. We hope that one of the military generals will be appointed to this post,” the source said.

He is sure that the post of Minister of Defense can appoint a "successful military type of the same Teplinsky."

“Mikhail Yuryevich is not eager to become a minister, but he is ready to take on this heavy burden. It's time to win," the military said.

He also believes that Valery Gerasimov should also be dismissed, but nothing concrete is said about this at the front.



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Mitäpä tuosta pitäisi ajatella? Shoigun ja Gerasimovin laittamisesta sivuun on liikkunut juoruja sodan alkamisesta lähtien, vaan vielä näin ei ole tapahtunut. Nyt sitten tapahtuisi, viimeistään syyskuun puolivälissä?

HUOM: jos kuulut Putinin lähipiiriin tai tukijoihin, silloin sinun pitäisi olla turvassa. Möhlitpä miten pahasti tahansa, ei pitäisi olla pelkoa aseman tai tulojen menetyksestä. Tällekin on toki rajansa, miten alas johtoketjussa tämä suojelu ulottuu, mutta Shoigu ja Gerasimov ovat ihan siellä ylhäällä. Lisäksi syrjään laittaminen sota-aikana näyttäisi huonolta ulospäin eikä Venäjä halua koskaan näyttää heikolta.

Minä uskon, että Putin on perusluonteeltaan tosi varovainen ja hän ei mielellään tee vaikeita päätöksiä kuin vasta sitten, jos muita vaihtoehtoja ei ole. Tästä syystä mobilisaation käynnistäminen venyi viime vuonna niin pitkään, kuin se venyi. Virallisesti toista suurta kierrosta ei ole julistettu sen jälkeen. Muitakin esimerkkejä löytyy. Putin ei tee päätöksiä vaan antaa asioiden rullata omalla painollaan ja ilmeisesti toivoo, että syystä tai toisesta tästä seuraisi tavoiteltu menestys. Shoigun korvaaminen jollain toisella sotisi tätä kaavaa vastaan, siksi on vaikea nähdä että näin tapahtuisi. On helpompaa jättää Shoigu tehtäviinsä ja toivoa, että sodan suunta kääntyisi.

JOS Shoigu saa jatkaa tehtävissään, tämä on omiaan vahvistamaan armeijan ja MoD sisäisiä jakolinjoja, koska selvästi nykyiset temput eivät toimi - eivät ole toimineen pidemmän aikaa, mutta mikään ei silti muutu vaikka olisi tarve kokeilla jotain uutta.
 
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