Analysis of the situation of the front in the area of Robotyne - Verbowe.
On this section of the front, we have something that can be called reaching the climax - yes, because this is not the climax, but it will be - when - when the Ukrainian Command decides that the time has come. New Map
The Ukrainian side introduced elements of several brigades to this area of the front, which translated into greater dynamics of action - the liberation of Robotyne (fights in the settlement for two houses means ruins) and entering the first line of Russian defense on a wider section.
However, everything is fine because we still have a lot of units in reserve, but the problem is that the section of the front where the fights are taking place is narrow and thus the introduction of additional forces may cause greater losses and channeling Ukrainian strikes.
Each of us can see the map and say yes, they try to get between Robotyna and Verbowe - Yes - but what's next - attack on Nowe and the direction of Tokmak??. Sorry, but that's not how it works. In order to break the front, we must have space to introduce troops into the breach that will not only deepen it but will collapse the defense on both wings. Subsequent formations will deepen the break and, through the speed of action, destroy the opponent's attempts to organize a defense. However, the situation is not easy and Ukrainian troops have to break through the defense at great depth and break up the reserves.
I divided this episode into 4 sectors, each of which is important for the Ukrainian side.
Sector A is the region - Nesterianka - Kopani
Sector B - Novoprokopivka area
Sector C - The area between Nowoprokopiwka and Oczeretuwate
Sector D - Verbowe area
To expand the intrusion and secure the attack wings - Ukrainian Command must operate in sectors A and D - why?. Because both regions are places from which Russian strike groups can operate. They can put pressure on the wings of the Ukrainian attack but also try to encircle units that will go deeper into the Russian defense lines. The Russian Command - brought the 7th Gw Mountain Assault Division to this area in Kherson - which is a strategic reserve in this section and on which the construction of the grouping can be based impact. But it takes two to tango and the Russian Command, due to the fact that the 1st PanzerGw ceased to be a strategic reserve by engaging this army in offensive operations in the north, decided - probably from the area of Kreminna - the 76th VDV Division.
On the basis of the 76th Guards assault division, the Russian command wants to build a second grouping that will not only be able to defend the indicated area, but will be able to attack if necessary. But we have sectors and the Ukrainian Command that ..... must act..
As I wrote - the priority for the Ukrainian side is to widen the section, i.e. burglary through attacks in sector A and D. While Sector A seems to be easier to conquer, we must remember that it is a very heavily mined area and both towns will be heavily defended.
Sector D looks even worse. Werbowe itself is well fortified and prepared for defence. the main 1st line of Russian defense runs there. the foreground is mined and the Ukrainian troops who fight there know it - and they note the progress on this section.
Sector B is the Novoprokopiwka sector which is heavily defended by Russian troops. Probably at the rear of this village there are strong reserves of the 7th Division, ready to support the defense and make counterattacks, either in favor of defending the village or to the east.
Sector C. This sector is the weakest place - a place that only seems to be such a place. Breaking the defense in this sector, crossing the main 1 line of defense is both a success, but also getting into the crossfire from sectors B and D and additional lines of defense.
It doesn't look rosy but - let's remember - fortifications are as strong as the soldiers who defend them. You probably know how long the MRU defended itself? max 2 days - why - because it was defended by few soldiers and the soldier was weak. That's why we're facing an attrition fight and several stages
The stages can be implemented in parallel, but this will require great flexibility and skill from the Ukrainian command.
1/ Fighting to expand sectors A and D
2/ Capturing Nowoprokopiwka and destroying the Russian reserves.
3/ Exit to the area of Sołodek Bałka - Myrne - Nowe
This is just my analysis and you don't have to agree with it
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