Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Puretaanpas tämä Micekin tilannekatsaus karttakuvaan:

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What do I know for today, at 2 pm, about the Ukrainian offensive.

- Something goes there to find out, but 90% from Russian channels, where there is a lot of junk information. UA sources are mostly silent. We won't learn anything from the AU soldiers, moreover, many of them have no contact - an order to turn off the phones. The available information itself is very general.

- For the time being, it is impossible to determine what the AU and RUS forces control in the region of the front.

- AU is still pushing hard on a total of 4 directions - Wasyliwka, Tokmak, Bilmak and Roziwka (the last two cases are strikes from the region of Wełyka Nowosiłka).

- The situation north of Tokmak is supposed to be the worst for RUS. UA here uses a lot of artillery to fight. Supposedly, the first line of defense of RUS is to be full of holes like Swiss cheese. However, there is no hard evidence.

- No main strike by AU forces yet. In my opinion, active operations are currently carried out by up to 20% of the forces gathered by the Ukrainians on the front and rear. Many brigades have not yet started fighting, but are waiting to be broken. However, these brigades can conduct an indirect fight, i.e. move to different places to introduce chaos in the RUS and force the Russian reserves to move.

- UA artillery is running at maximum capacity. RUS channels strongly complain that UA seems to run out of ammo.

- It seems to me that UA's attacks are very methodical so far. They consist more or less of the following scheme: drone reconnaissance, artillery attack, land reconnaissance, artillery attack, attempt to reconnaissance with combat in small groups, in case of resistance, retreat and again artillery attack... In the event of detection of reserve movements, remote, overhead minelaying behind RUS lines defense. In addition, after all, slowly biting into the defense lines of the RUS with the help of infantry, including separate assault battalions.

- RUS moved the reserves from the Kherson region to Zaporozhye.

- RUS have big problems in the air due to strong AA defense of AU.

- AU actively uses its own aviation in the region.

- RUS complain about communication problems and lots of Ukrainian drones of various types.

In general, I am a bit optimistic, but only next week the situation will be clearer.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Mielenkiintoinen näkökanta jota harvemmin tulee mietittyä vapaaehtoisten suhteen.
 
Jaroslaw Wolskin tilannekatsausta tältä päivältä (9.6.2023 11:30):

The information that can be pieced together shows that so far the UA has lost about one and a half battalions of "technics" in attacks on RUS positions (i.e. 31 or 44 machines depending on the number of times x 1.5) but they have achieved success in the direction of Robotny (on Tokmak) and in the direction from W. Nowosilka to Bilmak.
The RUS have several lines of defense there and the above-mentioned description applies to the first of them and the RUS reserves at the regiment level.
For the time being, the AU is attacking in difficult terrain the fortified positions in the directions assumed by the Russians. So either a surprising different - main - direction of the attack awaits us, or UA will not play with finesse and will try to do it with a "classic" break of fortified positions. Something like the RUS tried at Wuhledar or Awdijewka or Bakhmut. However, the result may be different.
This does not change what I wrote yesterday about the secondary (or confusing) directions and the two main ones that will "appear" within a week or which will turn into the directions we see now.
But for now, this is not even the main strike of the UA SZ, and what has been defeated so far is the advanced line of defense of the RUS in two directions, which is located in front of the main lines of defense. Plus divisional and army level reserves.
Everything is ahead of us.

 
Kiinnostaisi aika paljon tietää, miten Leo 2 A6 on saatu tuhottua. Toki se tuhoutuu siinä missä muutkin vahvasti panssaroidut panssarit, mutta mutta... Tuo palo näyttää lisäksi hyvin voimakkaalta.
Eikö se miinaan ole ajanut ja sitten tullut perästä vielä jotain.
 
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