Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Käännettynä vielä Serhii Flashin postaus tuolta telegramista:

All Russian groups are boiling with reposts, as the great OSINTers of the enemy have identified our "production" of Flamingo by photo. They post coordinates and demand to urgently destroy the site with missiles. Even Russian media have joined in. Some of our bloggers are actively fueling defeatism on the topic.

There is no need to shoot missiles or attack with Shaheds, traumatize local residents, and ruin someone's business; there is no and never was any production there.

We deliberately let Associated Press journalists photograph what we wanted them to photograph.

But the fact that OSINT is a dangerous and important thing is absolutely true. This must always be remembered.
 
Käännettynä vielä Serhii Flashin postaus tuolta telegramista:

All Russian groups are boiling with reposts, as the great OSINTers of the enemy have identified our "production" of Flamingo by photo. They post coordinates and demand to urgently destroy the site with missiles. Even Russian media have joined in. Some of our bloggers are actively fueling defeatism on the topic.

There is no need to shoot missiles or attack with Shaheds, traumatize local residents, and ruin someone's business; there is no and never was any production there.

We deliberately let Associated Press journalists photograph what we wanted them to photograph.

But the fact that OSINT is a dangerous and important thing is absolutely true. This must always be remembered.
Nauratti kun jossain x:ssä oli juttua tuosta geolokaatiosta ja oikein koordinaatitikin oli annettu. Grok tiesi kertoa, että ne koordinaatit ovat Kremlin. Joo, vakavasti otettava asia nykyään noin muuten!
 
Tässä yhden OSINT-tilin kommentti tästä "geopaikannuksesta":

It’s probably not the same building, there is a small chance is it the same building, however there are likely several other buildings, possibly hundreds of same building in Ukraine. Because that’s how Soviet construction was made.

There’s the same building in Dnipro as in Kyiv. Or likely Ukraine used that facility for the photo-op and moved everything out days ago before the press release. That would be the smart thing to do. We saw no production in that building anyway, just mostly or fully finished missiles and drones ready for ships, or ones that needed some final parts attached to them.

Regardless, now identical buildings in Ukraine will be targeted and destroyed because of this video, which wouldn’t be targeted for this reason before. They will fire missiles at this building and others, hopefully, the remaining <10 Patriot PAC-3 missiles Trump sent 2 months ago are able to shoot them down.



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Tässä toinen lisää:

The information spread so actively across the network that the enemy found the production site of "Flamingo," which forced us to analyze the similarities.

The Russians actually showed a similar, almost identical building. Red pipes, identical columns, exits, windows. Of course, we dismiss the fact that many warehouses are built according to an identical design.

For a long time, we analyzed the building in the AP report and photos from the rental advertisement for the warehouse. We won’t list arguments here about the different color of the wires on the ceiling or their density, as well as other details that could be countered with "They built it later," "They hung new ones," and so on.

The main argument is that the Russian OSINTers made a mistake - it’s the material of the walls in this building.

In the advertisement, it is clearly visible that it is concrete, with columns protruding inward and the presence of such stiffening ribs. In the AP footage, it is clearly visible that these are SIP panels and the divisions between them, which proves that the building is made of this material.

The enemy has already found a similar building (see image 4), but they made a mistake there too. This once again proves that there are, if not hundreds, then dozens of similar warehouses across the country.

In addition, the warehouse pointed out by the Russian OSINTers is located directly next to residential buildings, many civilian enterprises, and a busy road, and the territory is not shielded from prying eyes (see image 6 - a photo taken from the territory of a nearby enterprise, where this building is clearly visible), which poses a significant security problem for production of such scale.

This proves that the assumptions of the Russian OSINTers are mistaken, and if Russia strikes this building, it will only be attacking a civilian enterprise once again.


 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Anteeksi mutta mitä v-ttua, eikös ryssä ole lukuisia kertoja YRITTÄNYT iskeä Kiovaan, mukaanlukien hallintorakennukset? Muistan ainakin lukeneeni onnistuneista torjunnoista. Pahoittelut jos muistan väärin.
Jos en väärin muista niin sbu(vai mikä osasto olikaan) niin sai ihan osumaa. Omasta mielestä ton ensimmäiset 200 vois kaikki pyyhkästä kremlin sisä pihalle sillä sais koko maan ihan shokkiin hetkeksi sieltä tuota myllyä pyöritetään kuitenkin. Siinä ottas kerralla satologistiikka, ryssän talous ja etulinjojen vaikuttamis kyky osumaa. Mutta mikä olisi sitten ryssän vastaus siihen on eri asia. Noi on kuiten kantaa sitä 1000 kg hyötykuormaa niin noilla sais ton puljun kivijalkaan ihan heittämällä
 
Taas komeasti palaa:
💥💥🔥 Öljynsiirtoasema Unetšassa, Brjanskin alueella Venäjällä, palaa jälleen kirkkaasti. Ylipäällikkö Robert "Madjar" Brovdi, joka johtaa miehittämättömien järjestelmien joukkoja, on julkaissut videon tulipalosta, joka tapahtui eräässä strategisesti tärkeässä Družba-pääöljyputken solmukohdassa.

Unetšan asema vastaa raakaöljyn kuljetuksesta kahteen eri öljyputkeen, ja sen kapasiteetti on 60 miljoonaa tonnia raakaöljyä vuodessa. Aseman päätehtävänä on öljyn siirto noin 9 000 kilometrin pituisessa putkistojärjestelmässä.

‼️ Venäläiset lähteet raportoivat, että Ukrainan asevoimien droonit ovat tuhonneet Unetšan pumppaamolla viimeiset kolme öljynsiirtoon käytettävää yksikköä. Družba-öljyputken toiminta on täysin pysähtynyt.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Tosta flamingosta sen verran sehän on täys kopio brittien vastaavasta joka esiteltiin jollain sota messuilla että nuo linja kuvat voi olla vaikka briteistä. Ei hallia voi sisältä päin geota jos ei sitten joku pääsi pistä seinälle kylttiä tehtaan nimestä. Mitä tulee noihin numeroihin. Niin kappaletavara tuotantoa kun tehdään niin osa osista valmistuu aikaan x osa aikaan y ja itse tuotteen läpimeno aika on C. Joten runkoja voi olla tehty vaikka tuhat, haku päitä 10 ja on olemassa 1 kpl toimivia flamingoja.
 
Jos en väärin muista niin sbu(vai mikä osasto olikaan) niin sai ihan osumaa. Omasta mielestä ton ensimmäiset 200 vois kaikki pyyhkästä kremlin sisä pihalle sillä sais koko maan ihan shokkiin hetkeksi sieltä tuota myllyä pyöritetään kuitenkin. Siinä ottas kerralla satologistiikka, ryssän talous ja etulinjojen vaikuttamis kyky osumaa. Mutta mikä olisi sitten ryssän vastaus siihen on eri asia. Noi on kuiten kantaa sitä 1000 kg hyötykuormaa niin noilla sais ton puljun kivijalkaan ihan heittämällä
Kuulostaa kivalta, mutta iskisikö örkkilä takaisin taktisilla siviilikohteisiin? Örkkien kykyä barbaarisiin tekoihin ei mielestäni pidä aliarvioida. Niiden hirviömäisyydestä on ihan tarpeeksi esimerkkejä.
 
Russia: “Russia May Lose Several Major Oil Refineries Forever Due to Drone Attacks”

https://moscowtimes.ru/2025/08/22/r...avsegda-poteryat-neskolko-krupnih-npz-a172460

Russia May Lose Several Major Oil Refineries Forever Due to Drone Attacks

2 часа назад
Updated: 2 часа назад


Novokuibyshevsky Oil Refinery

Novokuibyshevsky Oil Refinery
Egor Aleev / TASS​
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which resumed in August and affected at least seven major refineries, could cause irreparable damage to the domestic oil refining industry, warns Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Since the beginning of the month, drone attacks have completely shut down the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov and Volgograd refineries in Russia. Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, which supplies fuel to Moscow and the region, has stopped half its capacity. Drone attacks have also hit the Slavyansk, Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsky refineries.

These refineries could be out of action for a long time or “even forever,” Vakulenko told the Financial Times .
Last year, Ukrainian drone strikes already dropped oil refining in Russia to a 12-year low of 267 million tons. But back then, the strikes were numerous but scattered and usually affected one refinery at a time, notes Vakulenko. Now, he notes, the campaign is aimed at all refineries in key regions of consumption and refining and could lead to “unprecedented” consequences for the fuel market.

The UAV strikes hit refineries that are among the country’s largest: Volgograd (Lukoil, 14.8 million tons per year) and Ryazan (Rosneft, 13.8 million tons per year). As a result, at least 10% of oil refining capacity was knocked out in just over two weeks, estimates Sergei Kaufman, an analyst at Finam.

To cover the deficit, the government imposed a complete ban on gasoline exports from Russia. This should add about 150 thousand tons of fuel to gas stations. "However, even with the export ban, domestic demand is not fully satisfied," Kaufman notes.

A gasoline shortage has arisen in Crimea, where the authorities have returned to the Soviet practice of selling fuel with coupons. Gasoline has disappeared from gas stations in Transbaikalia, the Kuril Islands, and Primorye, where drivers are forced to stand in hours-long lines to fill up. Exchange prices for gasoline have jumped by 40-50% since the beginning of the year and have been rewriting historical records throughout August: the cost of AI-92 reached 72.6 thousand rubles per ton, and AI-95 - 82.2 thousand.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that no one knows how much gasoline is actually produced in Russia, Kaufman notes: last year the government classified statistics on refineries.

The problems at the refineries are also connected with sanctions, which prevent them from being repaired properly, the head of the Ministry of Energy, Sergei Tsivilev, admitted in July.

Almost all large Russian refineries were built and modernized with the participation of European and American companies. However, Western equipment for refineries was immediately subject to sanctions - as part of the first package for the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the 2000s, foreign design solutions accounted for 80% of equipment in oil refining, and even during the Soviet era, technologies for refineries were purchased in the West, in particular catalytic reforming units, Sergei Kondratyev, deputy head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance, noted earlier.
The plants were never able to switch to domestic production, despite the state policy of import substitution. According to Kondratyev's estimates, by 2024 only 45% of the refineries' pumping equipment, 40% of the compressors, and only 30% of the reactors and coke chambers were domestic.


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Tuossa on mielenkiintoinen viittaus aikaisempaan 17.1.2025 julkaistuun artikkeliin: LÄHDE

Last year, Ukrainian drone strikes already dropped oil refining in Russia to a 12-year low of 267 million tons.

Lainaan viitatun artikkelin tekstin spoilerin taakse:

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/...tseny-na-sug-proekt-prikaza-minenergo-a152635

Ukrainian drone strikes send Russian oil refining to 12-year low

17.01.2025

816201_src.jpg

Screenshot of the video​
Russian refineries last year reduced their crude processing to a 12-year low of about 267 million tons due to unscheduled repairs after Ukrainian drone attacks and a collapse in margins, Reuters reports. A ban on gasoline exports, introduced to protect the domestic market, also had a negative impact on exports.
Ukraine attacked several Russian oil refineries and fuel facilities last year, including Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, Omsk refinery, Gazprom Neft's Slavyansk and Novoshakhtinsk refineries, and Rosneft's Tuapse refinery.
Against this backdrop, Russia in 2024 reduced the export of oil products through its seaports by 9.1% compared to the previous year to 113.7 million tons amid a drop in fuel production at refineries, Reuters notes, citing data from industry sources and its own calculations.
According to industry sources, in 2024, the total export of petroleum products through the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga fell by 9% compared to the previous year to 61.96 million tons. Fuel shipments through the Arctic ports of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk last year decreased by 14% compared to 2023 to 1.01 million tons. The southern ports of the Azov and Black Seas reduced export transshipment of petroleum products in 2024 by 10% year-on-year to 42.75 million tons. At the same time, fuel exports through the Black Sea port of Tuapse during the review period fell by a third compared to 2023 to 9.1 million tons due to unscheduled shutdowns and reduced refining at Rosneft's Tuapse Oil Refinery.
At the same time, export shipments of petroleum products through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in 2024 increased by 4% compared to the previous year to 19 million tons. Last year, the Far Eastern seaports of the Russian Federation reduced fuel export shipments by 3% compared to 2023 to 7.97 million tons, according to sources.
Meanwhile, in December 2024, the total export of petroleum products through Russian ports increased by 10.8% per day compared to the previous month to 10.37 million tons. In particular, export transshipment through the ports of the Black and Azov Seas last month increased by 23% compared to November to 4.17 million tons, through the ports of the Baltic Sea - to 5.49 million tons (+4.6%), through the ports of the Far East of the Russian Federation - to 637,100 tons (+0.3%).

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Minulla sattuu olemaan eräästä tutkimusartikkelista napattuna vuosien 2010-2018 jalostusmäärät:

1755880139593.webp

Artikkelissa mainittu vuoden 2024 kokonaismäärä 267 miljoonaa tonnia on sen mukaan alhaisin määrä viimeiseen 12 vuoteen, mikä täsmää yllä olevien numeroiden kanssa: vuoden 2012 kokonaismäärä on 265,8 miljoonaa tonnia ja sen jälkeen on tosiaan 12 vuotta vuoden 2024 loppuun.

Tässä ei sanota asiaa suoraan, mutta rivien välistä on luettavissa / tulkittavissa että kenties vuoden 2025 kokonaismäärä voisi olla tätäkin huonompi (olettaen että Ukraina jatkaa purevia iskujaan ja ryssä ei kykene korjaamaan jalostamoita ripeällä tahdilla):

Last year, Ukrainian drone strikes already dropped oil refining in Russia to a 12-year low of 267 million tons. But back then, the strikes were numerous but scattered and usually affected one refinery at a time, notes Vakulenko. Now, he notes, the campaign is aimed at all refineries in key regions of consumption and refining and could lead to “unprecedented” consequences for the fuel market.
 
Ryssä kiistää osumat öljynjalostukseen ja väittää, että pendapula johtuu suunnitelluista huolloista.

Eikös jalostamot silloin ole paras mahdollinen kohde. Tiedetään, että sattuu ja lujaa, eikä kuitenkaan saada syitä niskoille. Siviilikohteiden pommitukset ovat edelleen terroria länsimaiden silmissä.
 
Tännehän tää varsinaisesti kuuluu, kun ei tää ole länsimaiden sanktioiden seurausta vaan Ukrainan omien.

Aijaijai, hyviä uutisia näin perjaintai iltaan. Vaikka onkin pelkkä "may/saattaa" niin ryssä saattaa menettää lopullisesti joitakin isoja öljynjalostamoja. :love:
Gy-AQ51WoAAVYpn.webp
 
Tosta flamingosta sen verran sehän on täys kopio brittien vastaavasta joka esiteltiin jollain sota messuilla
Veikkaan, että on lisenssivalmistusta ja ehkä modattu paikallisiin erityisolosuhteisiin tst-kärjen ja moottorin suhteen + ehkä jotain muuta. Tyyppinimikin FP-5 on sama kuin brittiesikuvalla.
 
72,6% ukrainalaisista uskoo edelleen voittoon Venäjästä. Tullut toki 20% alas vuodesta 2022. Ukrainailaisilta kysyttiin myös kolmea tärkeintä määritelmää mitkä indikoi Ukrainan voittoa.
TOP 6:
Kaikkien ukrainalaisten vankien, siepattujen ja kyyditettyjen palautus.
Ukrainan valtion säilyttäminen
Ohjusiskujen loppuminen
1991 rajojen palautus
Putin pois vallasta
Rauha turvatakuilla Euroopan USA:n taholta.

 
Les Observateurs (twitter-tilin bio = France 24's fact-checking service. News in pictures with our network of Observers, open-source investigations ( #OSINT ) and fact-checking.) on julkaissut ketjun jossa paneudutaan ryssän Shahed-136 / Geran-2 / "niiden kaltaisten dronejen" laukaisupaikkoihin.

Ketjussa käsitellään Tsimbulova sotilaslentokentän laukaisupaikkoja ja niihin liittyviä rakennuksia.

Lainaan koko ketjun tekstin mutta en kaikkia kuvia:

For several months, #Russia has been discreetly building launch bases for #Shahed #drones, used to bombard Ukrainian cities.

The Observers conducted an investigation into these facilities

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The #Shahed drones, of Iranian design, bomb Ukrainian cities daily.

Interviewed by our editorial team, a resident describes these strikes as follows:

“The Shaheds attack day and night [...] we can no longer sleep.”

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The #Shahed are also used to overwhelm #Ukraine's air defenses: launched in increasingly large waves, they enable Russian missiles to reach their targets.

They also help the Russians map out the enemy's defenses.

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Between 2024 and 2025, the launch frequency increased from 200 #drones per week to over 1,000.

To maintain this pace, #Russia has built new bases specifically dedicated to Shaheds.

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Here is the Tsimbulova base.

It can launch 14 Shahed drones simultaneously and has a 2.8 km runway for launching drones using 4x4s.

As this image shows, its construction began in September 2024.


1755886956124.webp

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The base is equipped with bunkers specially designed to protect #Shahed drones.

These locations are characteristic of these new types of “airports.”

Here, we can see Shaheds parked in front of the bunkers.

1755886385682.webp

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Sometimes, these bases are built on old airports.

This is the case with the #Donetsk airport, located in the occupied #Donbass: it now houses #Shahed drone launchers.

1755886826141.webp

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The construction of these bases is accelerating.

The Observers' editorial team was able to identify a new base under construction in the Russian village of Asovitsa, 35 km from the Ukrainian border.

In this image, construction equipment can be seen.

1755886501032.webp

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These bases are prime targets for the Ukrainian army.

For example, the Tsimbulova base was targeted during an attack on February 9th.

You can see the impact marks in these images.

(katso kuva twitteristä)

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Consequently, the Russians protect these valuable bases.

It is thus common to observe batteries of surface-to-air missiles, such as the S-400s (in pink) here at Primorsko-Akhtarsk.

1755886690545.webp

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To understand the Russian tactics of using Shahed, read our article here.

https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20250822-russie-ukraine-guerre-drones-shahed-geran2-attaques-2025?utm_slink=f24.my/BNnV

 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Tännehän tää varsinaisesti kuuluu, kun ei tää ole länsimaiden sanktioiden seurausta vaan Ukrainan omien.

Aijaijai, hyviä uutisia näin perjaintai iltaan. Vaikka onkin pelkkä "may/saattaa" niin ryssä saattaa menettää lopullisesti joitakin isoja öljynjalostamoja. :love:
Katso liite: 124060
No, tuo on Moscow Times. Minä luen sen näin:

"Olemme menettäneet useita merkittäviä jalostamoja jo ajat sitten ja tahti tulee liki varmasti vielä kiihtymään. Tämä on ollut selviö jo pitkään. Nyt olemme tilanteessa, jossa on sallittua alkaa totutella ajatukseen."
 
No, tuo on Moscow Times. Minä luen sen näin:

"Olemme menettäneet useita merkittäviä jalostamoja jo ajat sitten ja tahti tulee liki varmasti vielä kiihtymään. Tämä on ollut selviö jo pitkään. Nyt olemme tilanteessa, jossa on sallittua alkaa totutella ajatukseen."
Moscow Times on maonpaossa ollu jo pitkään.
Edit. Samanlailla kun Meduza ja Novaja Gazeta esim. Tosin Novaja Gazetasta taitaa olla se alkuperäinen maanpaossa oleva media ja venäjälle uudelleenperustettu media erikseen.

Edit2: Tarkoitan siis että noista maanpaossa olevista itsenäisistä medioista saa sen olosuhteisiin nähden mahdollisimman luotettavimman tiedon tuolta. Heidän Venäjällä olevat toimittajansa aika pitkälti taitaa työskennellä mahdollisimman nimettöminä maan sisällä. Tietysti seuraavat täysin vapaasti sitten esim venäläisiä Telegram kanavia ja muuta sosiaalista mediaa. Tämä ei tietysti poissulje sitä että noissakin voi olla FSB:n/GRU:n soluttautujia.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Veikkaan, että on lisenssivalmistusta ja ehkä modattu paikallisiin erityisolosuhteisiin tst-kärjen ja moottorin suhteen + ehkä jotain muuta. Tyyppinimikin FP-5 on sama kuin brittiesikuvalla.
ite veikkaan, runko britit, ohjaus saksa, suihku tulee ukrainalta(niillä on jotain 9000 konetta tolla moottorilla), tst ei voi tietää ja nyt mukama joku yritys kerjää rahaa että voitas valmistaa noita ua pudjetista. Siis Ukrainalainen firma. No lapin lisää noita on jo varastossa tarpeeksi. Ja lähes kaikki Eu maat on luvannut auttaa Ua drone tuotanossa. Niin eikö toi ole aika helppo homma. odotetaan vaan missä rupee paukuu ensin. Mutta noi kun lähtee ilmaan ja jos osuu niin sitten kyllä paukkuu.
 
Yllä olevassa viestissä (LINKKI) jaetussa ketjussa viitattiin France24 nettisivulla julkaistuun artikkeliin, lainaan sen tekstin ja kuvat spoilerin taakse (artikkeli julkaistu 22.8.2025):

https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20250822-russie-ukraine-guerre-drones-shahed-geran2-attaques-2025?utm_slink=f24.my/BNnV

How Russia is building airports to launch Iranian drones at Ukrainian cities​

Europe

Since the beginning of 2025, Russia has been carrying out increasing raids using Shahed kamikaze drones. This Iranian-designed drone is raining down on Ukrainian cities in ever-increasing numbers, terrorizing the population. To fuel these attacks, Russia has built airports specifically designed for mass drone launches. The Observers editorial team consulted satellite images to locate these sites.
Published on:08/22/2025 - 4:20 PM

11 min
Reading time

By :
Guillaume MAURICE
/
The Observers


(katso kuva linkin takaa)
Russian Shahed kamikaze drones are raining down en masse on Ukrainian cities. To sustain a sustained bombing tempo, Russia has built bases to launch and store its drones. © Observers


The Shahed is a drone that knows no diplomacy. While Oval Office talks hint at a potential meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky , Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones —also known as “Geran-2” by the Russians—continue to strike Ukrainian cities. According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry , 546 drones fell on cities in western Ukraine during the night of August 20-21. For Ukrainian civilians, this drone, with a range of between 1,700 and 2,500 kilometers, represents the main threat. For the Russians, the Shahed is an unparalleled means of pressure, and the Russian military is quietly building airports specifically designed for the large-scale launch of these weapons.


(katso kuva linkin takaa)
The Shahed-136 drone used by Russia is small, 3.5 m long and 2.5 m wide, and easily transportable. © Cat-Uxo


Inexpensive, simple to manufacture, and easy to deploy, the Russians have been using Shahed drones against Ukraine since October 2022. The Shahed-136 reaches a maximum speed of 180 km/h and detonates itself upon hitting its target. While the drone's speed is significantly slower than that of a ballistic missile, the Shahed is easier to deploy. This drone is also easy to launch. It is possible to launch multiple drones from a truck or from a simple ground launch pad. A Shahed drone can even be launched from a simple pickup truck or SUV.

Above, a Chinese-made SUV converted by the Russian military into a Shahed drone launch platform. Below, a Russian-made Kamaz truck capable of launching two drones.

Above, a Chinese-made SUV converted by the Russian military into a Shahed drone launch platform. Below, a Russian-made Kamaz truck capable of launching two drones. © Observers


But the drone's greatest strength lies in the large number of units produced. Indeed, its cost is estimated at between $20,000 and $50,000, depending on the model's specifications. By comparison, the price of a 9M728 Iskander K cruise missile is estimated at between $1 million and $2 million. This low cost allows Russia to ensure a high rate of drone production.


(katso kuva linkin takaa)
This image, shared on Telegram in March 2024, shows a Russian factory for the large-scale production of Shahed drones. © Telegram


Since the beginning of 2023, the Shahed has been mass-produced on Russian soil under the name “Geran-2.” While the contribution of Chinese and, more rarely, Iranian components remains necessary, Russia is making its production autonomous. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, estimates that the rate of Russian Shahed launches will increase from 200 per week in 2024 to more than 1,000 per week in 2025.



This map, published by the Ukrainian analyst group Monitoring War, shows the waves of Shahed drones (in yellow) and missiles (in red) that flew over Ukraine on the night of August 20-21, 2025.

This map, published by the Ukrainian analyst group Monitoring War, shows the waves of Shahed drones (in yellow) and missiles (in red) that flew over Ukraine on the night of August 20-21, 2025. © Telegram/mon1tor_ua


“You can no longer sleep because you know there is a threat hanging over you.”

These drones are frequently involved in attacks on civilian infrastructure, sometimes causing deaths among the population . These incessant raids affect the morale of the population, as described by a resident of central Ukraine who wished to remain anonymous:

"If a drone flies over my city, I can hear it, even from afar. The sound is like a very loud motorcycle with its exhaust removed. The air raid warning is activated, and you can't sleep because you know there's a threat to you and your loved ones. The Shahids are attacking Ukraine day and night. While we were talking to you, we received an air raid warning, and it has just been canceled. For the children, everything depends on the adults' reaction. We are doing everything we can to keep the children sleeping."
This graph, published in May 2025 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shows the evolution of the number of Shahed drones launched against Ukraine over the months.

This graph, published in May 2025 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shows the evolution of the number of Shahed drones launched against Ukraine over the months. © CSIS Future Labs


Waves of hundreds of drones to “saturate” Ukrainian defenses

In addition to terrorizing the Ukrainian population, Shahed drones are used to overload Ukrainian missile defenses. An analyst with the Ukraine Control Map group describes a two-pronged strategy :

"The Russian doctrine for employing the Shahed is 'saturation'. It consists of overwhelming the air defenses in order to disperse them, which makes the Ukrainian batteries incapable of handling the volume of attacking drones. This tactic also allows Russia to map the Ukrainian air defense networks in order to target them.

While the Shahed are easy to detect by radar, their destruction at low cost is difficult due to the size of the area to be protected and the large number of targets requiring air defense.

Russia is therefore seeking to overwhelm Ukraine with its Shahed strikes. The scenes of Ukrainians hiding in subway stations are certainly reminiscent of Nazi Germany's Blitz against England during World War II.

According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies published in May 2025, Ukrainian air defenses are capable of shooting down 75% of Russian Shahed drones.

For Daniele Barbera , of the Tochnyi investigative group , the Shahed also serve as bait for Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses to allow the Russian missile to penetrate the defenses more easily:

"While air defenses know how to neutralize Shaheds, it is more difficult to destroy a large wave of Shaheds; especially when this wave of drones is coordinated with missile and aerial bomb attacks. [...] Often, Shahed drones are used to outflank Ukrainian defenses, allowing missiles to pass through and strike specific targets."

Infrastructure designed specifically for the Shahed

The Shahed's strength lies in numbers. To maintain constant pressure and fuel daily waves of drones, Russia is building new infrastructure. Thus, the borders of Russian territory are dotted with Shahed drone launch sites. The Ukrainian investigative group Oko Gora has identified 11 Russian Shahed drone launch sites .


(katso kuva linkin takaa)
This image from July 17, 2025, shows Shahed drone launch pads positioned at Donetsk Airport in Russian-occupied Donbass. © MaxarTechnologies2025


Near the city of Oryol, 170 km northeast of Ukraine, is located the main Shahed drone launch hub: the Tsimbulova base. Nicknamed “the airport” by Ukrainians, the structure includes eight ground launchers and a 2.8-kilometer stretch of road for launching drones from vehicles. According to the Ukrainian investigative group DniproOsint , the site can launch 14 drones simultaneously, and nearly 100 in a single night.

This satellite image released on August 14, 2025, shows Shahed drones parked in front of their storage bunker at Russia's Tsimbulova base.

This satellite image released on August 14, 2025, shows Shahed drones parked in front of their storage bunker at Russia's Tsimbulova base. © MaxarTechnologies2025


Using a series of satellite images, it is possible to date the start of construction of the site to August 2024.

Satellite images show the progress of the construction of the drone launch site at Russia's Tsimbulova base between June 2024 and May 2025. Location: 53.364701343443905, 35.82215622049165.

Satellite images show the progress of the construction of the drone launch site at Russia's Tsimbulova base between June 2024 and May 2025. Location: 53.364701343443905, 35.82215622049165. © Copernicus Browser


This strategic site has already been the target of Ukrainian missile strikes. On January 26, 2025, the airport was hit by Storm Shadow missiles. Satellite images released by the Ukrainian analyst group Cyber Boroshno show impacts on the bunkers.

The impact of Ukrainian missiles on a Russian drone launch site in Tsimbulova is visible in this image published on February 9, 2025, by the Cyber Boroshno analyst group. Location: 53.372340,35.800360.

The impact of Ukrainian missiles on a Russian drone launch site in Tsimbulova is visible in this image published on February 9, 2025, by the Cyber Boroshno analyst group. Location: 53.372340,35.800360. © Telegram/kiber_boroshno


As of August 2025, Russia continues to build new drone launch sites. The Observers editorial team has identified a potential site under construction near the village of Asovitsa in the Bryansk region, 35 km from Ukraine.

This satellite image, taken by Maxar on August 10, 2025, shows a Shahed drone launch site located near the village of Asovitsa in Russia. Location: 52.32282673988489, 34.506064868010526.

This satellite image, taken by Maxar on August 10, 2025, shows a Shahed drone launch site located near the village of Asovitsa in Russia. Location: 52.32282673988489, 34.506064868010526. © MaxarTechnologies2025


Air bases adapted for drones

Russia is also rehabilitating airports to transform them into storage facilities for Shahed drones. This is the case at the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airbase. Located 230 kilometers from the front line, it can launch around ten drones simultaneously. Proof of its strategic importance to the Russian command is that it is protected by S-400 anti-missile batteries.

This map shows the composition of the Russian Primorsko-Akhtarsk airbase with its ground launchers (in yellow), warehouses (in red) and anti-aircraft missiles (in pink). Location: 46.05948751501472, 38.235667644909164.

This map shows the composition of the Russian Primorsko-Akhtarsk airbase with its ground launchers (in yellow), warehouses (in red), and anti-aircraft missiles (in pink). Location: 46.05948751501472, 38.235667644909164. © Telegram/DniproOfficial


This satellite image taken on July 27, 2025, shows Shahed drones stored next to bunkers at Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airport in Russia.

This satellite image taken on July 27, 2025, shows Shahed drones stored next to bunkers at Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airport in Russia. © MaxarTechnologies2025


Here too, the site has been targeted by Ukrainian missiles on several occasions. On the night of August 1 to 2, 2025, the airfield was targeted by a Ukrainian missile strike. The impacts of the submunitions, as well as traces of intense heat triggered by the fire, are visible in this satellite image.

These images show significant heat sources released by the August 2, 2025, Ukrainian missile strike against the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airbase, a Russian facility modified to allow the launch of Shahed drones.

These images show significant heat sources released by the August 2, 2025, Ukrainian missile strike against the Primorsko-Akhtarsk air base, a Russian facility modified to allow the launch of Shahed drones. © NASA FIRMS


Easy targets?

If journalists and online investigators can detect Russian drone launch facilities, it's clear that the Ukrainians know where they are, too. Daniele Barbera of the Tochnyi investigative group explains why the Russians decided to group drones into these hubs:

"At first glance, the construction of these launch bases is quite strange. With satellite images, everyone knows where they are. They could be easy targets.

The Russians need this launch infrastructure because they are conducting waves of simultaneous drone launches. This requires significant logistics, and therefore appropriate infrastructure. Imagine, for each drone in the sky, you have to: transport the device to the launch zone, place the explosive charge, program the drone, and finally organize the launch. Multiply these tasks by dozens or hundreds of Shahed launches, and you have a logistical headache. It's therefore simpler to create suitable launch sites.

Before these bases were built, the Russians used mobile launchers that struggled to launch so many drones at once, and these older shelters were much less reinforced. They were therefore easier to destroy. The new bases are protected by missile batteries that can intercept other enemy missiles. Concentrating the drones in a single location makes them easier to protect.

The Shahed drone launch stations are located close to Ukrainian territory. This gives Ukrainian air defenses less time to react. If you launch the drones from a more distant area, the Ukrainians will have time to calculate the drones' trajectory and destroy them."

For the Ukrainian command, the destruction of these launch bases, as well as the Shahed drone production plants, is a priority. While negotiations with Russia could begin, drones continue to strike Ukrainian cities without interruption.

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Tuossa on mielenkiintoinen arvio Tsimbulovassa sijaitsevan laukaisupaikan suorituskyvystä (vaikea sanoa, miten hyvä arvio tämä on):

Near the city of Oryol, 170 km northeast of Ukraine, is located the main Shahed drone launch hub: the Tsimbulova base.

Nicknamed “the airport” by Ukrainians, the structure includes eight ground launchers and a 2.8-kilometer stretch of road for launching drones from vehicles.

According to the Ukrainian investigative group DniproOsint , the site can launch 14 drones simultaneously, and nearly 100 in a single night.
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Moscow Times kirjoittaa että Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery (OR) ei ole maksanut urakoitsijoille ja työntekijöille palkkaa viiteen kuukauteen (alkuperäinen lähde on VChK-OGPU joka on joskus oikeassa ja joskus julkaissut perättömiä huhuja):

One of the largest oil refineries in southern Russia has stopped paying wages

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/08/...yuga-rossii-perestali-platit-zarplatu-a172468

One of the largest oil refineries in southern Russia has stopped paying wages

час назад
Updated: 36 минут назад

The management has not paid salaries to employees of the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the fifth month

The management has not paid salaries to employees of the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the fifth month


nznp.ru

The personnel of the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery (OR), one of the largest in southern Russia, which was attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the fifth time since the war began, have been without pay for the fifth month. This was reported by the VChK-OGPU, citing the plant's employees. The enterprise provided 1.7% of Russia's oil refining capacity, or 5.6 million tons.
According to the channel, the general customer of the enterprise "NZPN Engineering" does not pay money to contractors, and accordingly, workers, welders, fitters do not receive wages, employees said. According to them, they contacted the governor of the Rostov region Yuri Slyusar, but did not receive an answer
"The recent attack on the plant and the subsequent fire have made the situation worse," a source at the plant said.
Another raid on the plant, which was launched in 2009 and became the first major refinery built in Russia from scratch in the last 30 years, took place on the night of August 21. Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar reported that the strike hit "one of the industrial enterprises" and a fire broke out there. As of the evening of August 22, Russian authorities have not reported that the fire at the facility has been extinguished. The first time Ukrainian drones attacked this refinery was back in June 2022.
Meanwhile, the overall wage arrears of large enterprises in Russia are growing. According to Rosstat, at the end of May this figure in the country jumped 3.4 times year-on-year to 1.66 billion rubles (excluding small and medium-sized companies). According to estimates by the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia ( FNPR), by July this amount had increased to 1.7 billion.
In addition, since the beginning of 2025, more than 100,000 Russians have been laid off or transferred to part-time work, President Vladimir Putin reported last week. This is a sign of the growth of "hidden unemployment," he said.


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Novoshakhtinsk sijainti kartalla:

1755888479650.webp

Tämä on se jalostamo jota vastaan iskettiin viime yönä, tosin kuvien perusteella iskettiin polttonestesäiliöitä vastaan eikä varsinaista jalostamoa.
 
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