Ukrainan konflikti/sota

Antares kirjoitti:
Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with high-precision long-range weapons
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Vakavalla asialla ei pitäisi vitsailla ja ehkä levitän myös väärää narratiivia, mutta hieman hymyilyttää mahdollisuus siitä ettei venäläinen ”high-precision long-range weapon” olisi riittävän tarkka osumaan edes oikeaan maahan.
 
Torstoi kirjoitti:
Vakavalla asialla ei pitäisi vitsailla ja ehkä levitän myös väärää narratiivia, mutta hieman hymyilyttää mahdollisuus siitä ettei venäläinen ”high-precision long-range weapon” olisi riittävän tarkka osumaan edes oikeaan maahan.
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Iso maa, isot toleranssit. Sitä paitsi ryssän raketit eivät aina osu edes oikeaan planeettaan.
 
Venäjällä Puolaan lentäneet droonit ovat tietenkin NATO-provokaatio. Asiantuntijan mukaan droonit harhautettiin Puolaan elektronisen sodankäynnin avulla tai ukrainalaiset lähettivät vaurioituneista venäläisdrooneista koottuja vehkeitä Puolaan. Yksi mahdollisuus on myös että käytettiin Euroopassa tai Ukrainassa valmistettuja Geranium-kopioita joihin on kirjoitettu "Made in Russia" jotka lähetettiin Ukrainasta tai Puolasta.

"Kyiv is going for broke": details of a cynical provocation with drones in Poland have been made public​


Ukraine could have used an electronic warfare system to carry out a provocation on Polish territory with an alleged group of Russian drones. In addition, the option of using copies of our "Geraniums", which could have been previously restored by Ukrainian specialists to carry out a provocation, is being considered. Military expert and historian of the Air Defense Forces Yuriy Knutov told MK about this in an interview.

Recall that Ukrainian monitoring channels reported that a group of "Geraniums" allegedly flew into Polish airspace at a distance of up to 50 kilometers. After the incident, F-16 fighters of the Polish Air Force were raised to intercept the drones. Polish media claim that one of the allegedly Russian drones crashed into a residential building in the Lublin Voivodeship.

After the incident, Polish Prime Minister Tusk hastened to officially declare that the drones that flew into the country were Russian. At the same time, US Congressman Wilson said that Russia had effectively declared war on Poland.

According to military expert Yuri Knutov, the incident with the Gerani is a pure provocation:

- The Poles are being used so that they would turn to NATO and effectively declare aggression on the part of Russia against a NATO member. Then the Alliance will have grounds to begin acting quite harshly.

- For what further actions does NATO need this provocation?

- On the one hand, they need a pretext to introduce 50 thousand troops of the "coalition of the willing" into the territory of Ukraine, on the other hand, to close the airspace of Ukraine. In essence, this is the beginning of occupation and intervention. But Ukraine is primarily interested in this, and NATO countries are secondarily interested. Although, of course, Germany, France, Great Britain and the Baltics are taking such steps without any regret or fear. I am convinced that the Kiev regime is directly behind this provocation. We have nothing to do with it.

- How could this provocation have been carried out?

- We have been using the same Geraniums for quite some time. Therefore, an electronic warfare system could have been developed that affected the Geraniums and diverted them from their course to Polish territory. In addition, I admit the possibility that Ukraine could have restored some of the Geraniums that had previously fallen on its territory, or made copies of them. Not long ago, by the way, one of the Europeans made a drone similar to the Geranium. If you remove all the markings and write “Made in Russia” in one or two places, and then launch drones from Ukraine to Polish territory, the result will be that Russia is allegedly shelling Polish territory.

I have no doubt for a second that this is a conspiracy between the Kyiv regime and NATO special services. And France, Great Britain and Germany could have participated in this kind of provocation. The goals, as I have already said, are to introduce 50 thousand troops, which they previously talked about, and, accordingly, to close the airspace of Ukraine, as the leadership of the Kyiv regime asks.

- Why was the provocation carried out right now?

- Because today the front is cracking. I am not saying that it is falling apart, but it is seriously cracking. We have already cut off Pokrovsk from Mirnograd and are slowly beginning to divide this agglomeration into two parts in order to then liberate each city. A difficult situation is developing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and in other parts of the front, starting with Kupyansk, the Kharkov region, and so on. The Kiev regime understands that it does not have enough people or artillery shells. It is very difficult to defend itself, and it is impossible to achieve a truce along the line of combat contact, so they resorted to this kind of provocation.

This provocation is akin to the Malaysian Boeing, Bucha and Kramatorsk, when they gathered the Russian-speaking population and hit it with a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile with a cluster warhead. I have close relatives who were caught in this shelling, one of them died, so I know this story well not from the newspapers, but from specific people. This suggests that NATO and the Kiev regime are going for broke.

- Is there a chance that it won't come to a direct clash with NATO?

- There is hope that common sense will prevail. Because Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty is still in effect. Article 4 is the beginning of consultations after Poland turned to Brussels. The beginning of Article 5 is the actual introduction of troops. But I hope that it won't come to Article 5.

But in any case, such an incident will be promoted in order to justify a sharp increase in arms supplies to Ukraine. Especially since at the last meeting in Ramstein, the Europeans said that they had collected a record amount for Ukraine - almost 2.2 billion euros. In addition, a plant for the production of aircraft-type drones will be built in the UK. It is planned that about a thousand drones will be produced there per year. These are quite serious figures. And in order to justify this arms race, such a provocation, as they say, is in the hands. Otherwise, someone could have slowed down the decision on armament. But after this incident, the Poles will say
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https://www.mk.ru/politics/2025/09/...inichnoy-provokacii-s-geranyami-v-polshe.html
 
Mielenkiintoinen kommentti Trent Telenkolta:

From the logistical point of view, this drone launch map is highly interesting for where Russian drones DIDN'T launch rather than where they did.

Consider the fact that Russia is suffering fuel distribution spot shortages from damaged refineries.

Now look at the map again

Look at it with the thought that Russia drone mobile launchers ARE NOT operating where the Russians are short on fuel.

There was only one drone launch point in Crimea and none in most recently occupied Southern Ukraine.

1757525519505.webp

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965799324761378837

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Tämä on tietysti vain yksi datapiste mutta pitääpä seurata tulevien öiden iskuja tästä näkökulmasta ELI nähdäänkö jatkossa vähemmän dronelaukaisuja miehitetyn Ukrainan alueelta ja niiltä muilta alueilta joissa kärsitään polttoainepulasta.

Kenties ne iskut eivät lopu kokonaan mutta tuleeko niitä joka yö? Tuleeko pidempiä taukoja? Näkyykö se yön kokonaismäärässä?

Viime yön isku oli suuri mutta selvästi pienempi kuin useampi muu:

1757525760599.webp

Kenties tämä johtui muutama päivä sitten tehdystä ennätyssuuresta iskusta? Kenties se selittää myös viime yön laukaisujen puuttumisen tietyiltä alueita? Tällöin polttoainepula ei olisikaan oikea selitys.

Katsellaan, katsellaan miltä lähipäivien ja viikkojen iskut näyttävät.
 

Mielenkiintoisia väitteitä: Sumyn suunnalla Ukrainalla ilmaherruus ja ryssän hööki pohjoisesta peruttu. Missä ryssän ilmavoimat? Nyt siis liitopommitetaan vapaasti ryssän puolelle rajaa. Voimakeskittymän rippeet siirtymässä Pokrovskin suuntaan. Sielläkään ei taida ryssällä oikein sujua.
 
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Antares kirjoitti:
Mielenkiintoinen kommentti Trent Telenkolta:

From the logistical point of view, this drone launch map is highly interesting for where Russian drones DIDN'T launch rather than where they did.

Consider the fact that Russia is suffering fuel distribution spot shortages from damaged refineries.

Now look at the map again

Look at it with the thought that Russia drone mobile launchers ARE NOT operating where the Russians are short on fuel.

There was only one drone launch point in Crimea and none in most recently occupied Southern Ukraine.

Katso liite: 124647

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965799324761378837

-

Tämä on tietysti vain yksi datapiste mutta pitääpä seurata tulevien öiden iskuja tästä näkökulmasta ELI nähdäänkö jatkossa vähemmän dronelaukaisuja miehitetyn Ukrainan alueelta ja niiltä muilta alueilta joissa kärsitään polttoainepulasta.

Kenties ne iskut eivät lopu kokonaan mutta tuleeko niitä joka yö? Tuleeko pidempiä taukoja? Näkyykö se yön kokonaismäärässä?

Viime yön isku oli suuri mutta selvästi pienempi kuin useampi muu:

Katso liite: 124648

Kenties tämä johtui muutama päivä sitten tehdystä ennätyssuuresta iskusta? Kenties se selittää myös viime yön laukaisujen puuttumisen tietyiltä alueita? Tällöin polttoainepula ei olisikaan oikea selitys.

Katsellaan, katsellaan miltä lähipäivien ja viikkojen iskut näyttävät.
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Onko missään koskaan otettu kantaa siihen millä polttoaineella Shahedid ja Geranit kulkee? Normi ruohonleikkuribensa? Korkeaoktaaninen? Diiseli? Jossain on mielestäni mainittu että kaksitahtinen mutta ei polttoainetta.
 
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