Why won't Western sanctions make Putin change his strategy ? - Dima Vorobiev, Former Soviet propaganda executive.
,
The name of the game for President Putin is
strategic patience.
Goal
His goal is to perpetuate his rule for as long as possible. His exit as per today will most probably cause a massive redistribution of wealth in Russia under the banner “Return the loot to the nation”. This threatens to swallow his family and closest friends among the oligarchs. He simply can’t allow this to happen.
Which is why Putin’s strategy is to play for time. Sooner or later, some friendly Black Swans may arrive for him to find a form of acceptable power transition to the next generation of rulers in the Kremlin.
Reducing exposure
This way, Western sanctions—while gradually weakening the
country—objectively play into his hand in his
personal agenda. They reduce the exposure of Russia to global factors. The fewer contacts the West has with Russia, the fewer are vulnerable points of attack where President Putin must prepare a layered defense.
Sanctions also help keep his oligarchs on a short leash. This gives our president ample opportunity to hold their fortunes under tighter control.
Better bottom line
At the same time, they give a plausible excuse for countersanctions. When they hurt Russian producers and consumers, he can play the patriotism card: “we need to retaliate, or what?”
Countersanctions and currency policy are the secret weapons behind the impressive stats of Russia’s national debt, sovereign debt, and currency reserves. Whenever our exports get hit by another slump in petroleum prices, President Putin simply screws down the imports.
This keeps bearing fruit even against the unabating capital flight to the West. Investments suffer, but the bottom line is strong. Stability, not development or reforms, are at the top of our President’s agenda.
Below, President Putin at his first G8 summit in Okinawa. As per March 2019, he’s the only one left on the top of the game. Many won’t even recognize the names of several other men in the photo. Authoritarianism has its advantages. Looking back at two decades of his rule, President Putin has many reasons to believe he can beat anyone in the global
Long Game.