As a war in Iran draws closer, Britain should press for peace
Tough diplomacy and sanctions rather than an Israeli air strike remain the best option for dealing with the global pariah.
Twice in the opening decade of this century, Britain has embarked on misbegotten wars – in Afghanistan, where our soldiers are about to resume control of the killing fields of Helmand, and in Iraq. This week may mark the entry to the third and potentially most devastating conflict, this time against Iran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will shortly issue a report on Tehran’s alleged attempts to develop a nuclear weapon. Specifically, it is expected to confirm the building of a steel container to test the explosives needed to detonate a bomb, as well as detailing plans for uranium enrichment centrifuges and claiming that engineers are working on modifying ballistic missiles to carry nuclear payloads.
This time, the mood is more ominous. Senior Foreign Office figures, alarmed by Israel’s growing isolation in the Middle East, no longer regard air strikes as unthinkable. Far from being surprised at reports that Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for an assault, diplomats point out that Iran has already passed several nuclear “thresholds” that the Israeli PM previously indicated would be insupportable. In the words of one source, “the temperature is rising”.
Were Israel to strike nuclear sites, Iran would certainly retaliate with rocket attacks on Tel Aviv, leaving Barack Obama with little or no choice but to join the conflict in defence of America’s ally, and ours. With Nato already saying that it would play no part in any conflict (a stance on which Germany would surely insist), pressure would fall on Britain to stand with the US, allowing, at the least, for attacks to be launched from the UK base in Diego Garcia.
Reports that Britain’s Armed Forces are stepping up contingency planning to join in an air and sea offensive may be exaggerated. Some sources suggest that such claims have been leaked by MoD officials so worried by the growing mood of aggression in the Pentagon that they wish to sound an alarm, aimed at ensuring Britain’s non-participation.
Still, as Enoch Powell said, “history is littered with wars which everyone knew would never happen”. Several factors beyond the Iranian nuclear advances suggest the runes may now point to conflict. The Arab Spring, besides leaving Israel isolated, has weakened Iran, the last great civilization to choose pariah status. While Israel may see an opportunity to strike, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, held in disdain by a young electorate, might welcome a chance to re-establish itself as a glorious guardian of the revolution.
Saudi Arabia, increasingly concerned about Iran, is thought tacitly to approve the idea of an attack. In America, embroiled in pre-election fever, Mitt Romney, the most plausible Republican challenger, claims that Obama “has thrown Israel under the bus”. :dodgy: :maija: :lanssi: