Konflikti Kiinan merellä

[Bushmaster]

Rajoittaisin Venäjän pois tästä selkkauksesta muuten kuin Kiinan kumppanina. Kiinalla, nyky hallinnon pysyessä samana, ei ole tarvetta lähteä Siperian valtaukseen. Kummatkin ovat suuntaamassa resurssejaan pysyvän kuutukikohdan luomiseksi. Kaikki mikä on harvinaista, kuten esimerkiksi titaani, on siellä jollain muulla nimityksellä kuin harvinainen.

Tämä konflikti on osa tätä vuosisataa ellei vuosituhatta. Ihmiset on tulleet pitkälle sitten Maon kommunistikiinan. Kommunismi on ainoastaan hallituksen sisäinen juttu, kun taas ulospäin Kiinan pyrkimykset on verrattavissa länsimaiden pyrkimyksiin, mutta toisin kuin jenkit, Kiina ei ole sotimassa.

Normikiinalainen ei halua sotaa Lännen kanssa.

Eipä sitä N-liittolainenkaan sotaa halunnut tai venäläiset...?

 

[Juna112Porojetsiin]

turvallinen energian ja muiden resurssien toimittaja

Jep .. turvallinen

 

[Juna112Porojetsiin]

kuutukikohdan

Kaikki mikä on harvinaista, kuten esimerkiksi titaani

Ei titaani ole harvinaista. Se on maapallon seitsemänneksi yleisin metalli ja yhdeksänneksi yleisin alkuaine. Mutta joo .. ymmärrän pointtisi tuossa, Kuusta saa kaikkea vänkää.

Mihin perustat näkemyksesi siitä että Kiinan nykyhallinto ei olisi kiinnostunut Siperiasta ?

 

[ctg]

Mihin perustat näkemyksesi siitä että Kiinan nykyhallinto ei olisi kiinnostunut Siperiasta ?

Etäisyydet, ja heillä on sama ongelma kuin naapurilla Lapin valtauksessa. Tiestö vie sinne minne naapuri on niitä tehnyt eikä yhtään pidemmälle. Heillä on myös kohtuu selvillä että atomipakettia tulee niskaan jos kovasti vääntää ja jos naapuri onnistuu kuluttamaan lohikäärmään kulmahampaat, niin kuka sitten pistää hanttiin Intialle - se toinen miljardikansa.

 

[aj77]

Dokumentti Kiinan kasvaneesta kyvystä. Joka väitteen mukaan perustuu täysin Usalta pöllittyyn tietoon. Mainitaan mm. uudet hiljaiset dieselsukellusveneet joista yksi nousi lentotukialusryhmän keskellä pintaan kenenkään havaitsematta.

 

[vonrehausen]

HANOI —

Japan pledged new patrol boats and $1.1 billion in aid to Vietnam Monday as part of a sprawling package targeting maritime and security affairs to bolster ties in the face of regional powerhouse China.

Hanoi and Tokyo are locked in separate standoffs with Beijing over territorial claims in disputed regional waters, pushing the two countries closer in recent years.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the six new vessels and the 130 billion yen loan package during a two-day visit to Vietnam, which is also aimed at boosting business ties with the fast-growing communist nation.

“I wish to make basic principles such as freedom of navigation, rule of law and peaceful resolution of conflict to become unshakable,” Abe told reporters.

Vietnam welcomed Japan’s maritime pledge made earlier on Abe’s trip, his third visit to the country as prime minister.

“Both sides agreed on the importance of ensuring the maritime security on the issue of the South China Sea and promoting to resolve conflict by peaceful means (and) respecting international law,” Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said.

Vietnam and China have traded barbs over disputed territory in the South China Sea, where Beijing has built islands capable of hosting military installations.

Tokyo has also sparred with Beijing over its territorial claims in the East China Sea, and both Japan and Vietnam have repeatedly stressed that maritime disputes should be addressed according to law.

Japan has made similar gifts of patrol vessels and aircraft to the Philippines, which also has competing maritime claims with China.

Tokyo is an increasingly vital ally to Vietnam—it is the country’s largest aid donor, the second largest foreign investor and a key trading partner.

At their meeting Monday, both sides pledged to keep trade ties alive in the wake of a promise by US President-elect Donald Trump to scrap the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first day in office.

“We must create free, fair and rules-based market… we should all aim at the early entry into force of TPP,” Abe said.

Abe, who has previously said the TPP would be “meaningless” without the U.S., added that he he wants to meet the U.S. leader “as soon as possible after he takes office” on Friday.

Abe was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his shock election victory in November and on Monday he described the U.S.-Japan alliance as “rock solid”.

His six-day swing through Asia-Pacific also took him to the Philippines, Australia and Indonesia before his final stop in Vietnam.

Climate projects and waste management were also included in Japan’s aid package to Vietnam announced Monday.

Vietnam has come under fire for failing to enforce environmental regulations, especially in the industrial sector. Last year, Taiwanese steel firm Formosa was blamed for a toxic waste dump that killed tonnes of fish along Vietnam’s central coast.

The leaders also announced a visit by Japan’s emperor and his wife in the spring.

https://www.japantoday.com/category...ledges-patrol-vessels-1-1-bil-aid-for-vietnam


Uuden vuoden Abe kiertää Filippiinejä ja Vietnamia jakamassa rahaa ja lahjoja. Nyt 6 venettä ja 1,1 miljardia dollaria Vietnamille.

 

[ctg]

Vietnam shows signs of softening its approach toward China over their bitter maritime dispute, a move welcomed by nervous leaders in Beijing as it could rebalance Hanoi’s foreign policy away from Washington while cooling decades of strife.

Beijing and Hanoi issued a communique Saturday proposing negotiations on their conflicting claims in the South China Sea, state-run media from both sides report. The two sides will also look for shorter-term solutions that avoid slighting either country’s political position, the reports say.

Cooperation with China would remove the thorniest opponent to Beijing’s expansion in the sea. Four other governments claim the ocean, which is rich in fishery stocks and possible fuel reserves. They normally keep quiet about Beijing’s military maneuvers and reclamation of small, disputed islets.

http://www.voanews.com/a/vietnam-signal-softer-stance-on-contested-south-china-sea/3680878.html

Philippines Defence Minister Delfin Lorenzana has said China's arms buildup on the disputed islands in the South China Sea is "very troubling".

Lorenzana's comments come a day after Foreign Minister Perfecto Yasay confirmed that Manila had lodged a low-key diplomatic protest with Beijing in December, after a US think thank reported that China appeared to have installed anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons on its man-made Spratly islands in the strategically vital South China Sea.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/philippine...uildup-south-china-sea-very-troubling-1601473

In comments that could raise the stakes in the South China Sea, Donald Trump’s choice for secretary of state said the U.S. should stop Beijing from constructing artificial islands and deny it access to them.

“We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed,” former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson said during his Senate confirmation hearing. He compared China’s island-building in the disputed waters to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

The outgoing U.S. administration has challenged China by sending warships close to man-made islands on four occasions, but the talk of denying access to those features could significantly raise the risk of military confrontation. It wasn’t clear if Tillerson was referring to the islands with a Chinese military presence already established or those like Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing wrested from the Philippines in 2012 but hasn’t built on yet.

Blocking China’s access to the islands “could spark armed conflict,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “I can’t help but think that he did not mean it this way.”

A person familiar with deliberations inside the Trump transition team was aware of no such plans, raising the likelihood that Tillerson misspoke.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...10fe486791c_story.html?utm_term=.2782fc749baa

Miksi tillersonille ei näytetty ovea?

 

[ctg]

Duterte flipfloppailee taas kertaalleen.

In his latest outrage, the Philippines’ ultra-hardline President Rodrigo Duterte has now threatened to actually impose martial law across the country if the drug problem became “very virulent.”

On Monday, Reuters quoted him as saying: “If I wanted to, and it will deteriorate into something really very virulent, I will declare martial law. No one can stop me.”

In a comment apparently directed at the Supreme Court and Congress, he voiced open defiance of legal norms, stating, “My country transcends everything else, even the limitations.”

Since Duterte took office at the end of June, it is believed that more than 6,000 people have been killed in his anti-drug crackdown—both in “official” police operations and paramilitary “vigilante” activity. More than one million drug dealers and users have been arrested or have surrendered to authorities.

Just last month, Duterte denied that he was considering a declaration of martial law.


“That’s nonsense,” he said in response to a reporter’s question. “We had martial law before, what happened? Did it improve our lives now? Not at all.”

http://hightimes.com/news/philippines-anti-narco-strongman-threatens-martial-law/

Hänellä on vaikea asema Kiinan taskussa ja Jenkkien silmätikkuna. Toivon Dutertelle diplomatia oppitunteja ennenkuin Lohikäärme jyrähtää.

Some 100 armed men stormed the North Cotabato Jail in the restive southern island of Mindanao the night of Jan. 3, setting free 158 detainees after an hour-long gun-battle with guards. A guard and six escapees were reported killed. It was the third and biggest jailbreak in the past decade at North Cotabato District Jail, according to the Philippine Star. The jailbreaks are believed linked to Mindanao’s Islamist insurgency.

Having isolated himself with his open contempt for human rights, Duterte is of course seeing CIA destabilization conspiracies against him. He said in an interview with CNN Philippines: “Most of the ambassadors of the United States…are not really professional ambassadors. At the same time, they are spying, they are connected with the CIA.”

Duterte was commenting on a report in the Manila Times claiming that Philip Goldberg, who resigned in November as the U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, left behind a detailed plan on how to undermine and oust the Duterte government. Citing a document received from a “highly placed source,” the newspaper said that Goldberg’s “blueprint to undermine Duterte” included supporting domestic opposition with grants and diplomatic assistance and pressuring other Asian nations to cut ties with the Philippines.

The claims were of course eagerly taken up by Russian state propaganda mouthpiece RT.

It will be interesting to watch whether Duterte patches things up with Washington and calls off his “separation” from the United States once Donald Trump is in office, and the Philippine strongman is once again given free rein to unleash state terror on druggie scum.

 

[Guderian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...10fe486791c_story.html?utm_term=.2782fc749baa

Miksi tillersonille ei näytetty ovea?

Sputnik sanoo:

Beijing Predicts 'Military Clash' If US Blockades South China Sea

Sputnik News

In-Depth Coverage

22:09 13.01.2017(updated 23:37 13.01.2017)

In response to Rex Tillerson's rocky confirmation hearing, Chinese state media Global Times published an op-ed blasting the former ExxonMobil CEO for "unprofessional" comments that could lead to a "military clash."

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milit...sputnik02.htm?_m=3n.002a.1914.qa0ao069zz.1rdk

 

[ctg]

Donald Trump’s election has raised questions about the future of U.S. foreign policy—and perhaps nowhere more consequentially than for Sino-U.S. relations. During the presidential campaign, Trump focused most of his fire on China’s economic policies, but during the transition he has broadened his critique to include China’s military buildup and activities in the South China Sea, and he has called into question America’s long-standing One China policy. In light of these comments, it’s particularly timely to assess the state of the bilateral security relationship, and whether new developments warrant a fundamental rethink of our security policy toward China.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/can-donald-trump-avoid-dangerous-south-china-sea-showdown-19099

Huomatkaa kiinalaisten sanoitukset heidän artikkelissaan.

We should not take Rex Tillerson too seriously when he threatened last week that America would deny China access to its bases in the South China Sea, plainly implying a willingness to use force to do so if necessary. He was not speaking from a prepared text, and his remarks were so ill-informed and foolish that he probably just didn’t know what he was talking about. So this was a gaffe, not a statement of policy.

But that doesn’t mean his ill-considered words don’t have serious consequences. They have certainly damaged his credibility. He might have been a very effective businessman, but it is hard to take seriously someone who, as the new administration’s nominee for secretary of state, presents himself to the Senate confirmation hearing so poorly prepared to discuss the most sensitive issue in the most important and difficult bilateral relationship that America has today.

And by damaging his own credibility, his effectiveness in that office, if he is confirmed, will also be undermined.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight...s-china-trump-and-tillerson-are-making-rookie

 

[ctg]

China has warned the US to “speak and act cautiously” after the White House said it would act to foil Chinese attempts to “take over” the South China Sea, amid growing hints that Donald Trump’s administration intends to challenge Beijing over the strategic waterway.

At a press conference in Beijing on Tuesday, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying urged Washington to tread carefully “to avoid harming the peace and stability of the South China Sea”.

Hua was responding to comments made by White House press secretary Sean Spicer the previous day.

Speaking at a press briefing on Monday, Spicer vowed the US would “make sure that we protect our interests” in the resource-rich trade route, through which $4.5tn (£3.4tn) in trade passes each year.

His comments came less than a fortnight after Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, set the stage for a potentially explosive clash with Beijing by likening its artificial island building campaign in the South China Sea to “Russia’s taking of Crimea”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/24/trump-white-house-beijing-takeover-south-china-sea

However, scholars who have been advising Trump’s team on China policy back a more muscular military approach, primarily through a dramatically strengthened navy in the region.

“We’ve talked a big game on security but haven’t really followed it up all that well with the military muscle that was needed,” Daniel Blumenthal, the director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington-based thinktank, told the Guardian.

Blumenthal said a “strong, persistent US naval presence” was required to back up a foreign policy “that at its bottom line says that China’s not going to control the South China Sea … But you can’t do that without military resources.”

“A blockade [of China’s artificial islands] would be incredibly provocative and would almost certainly spark a US-China confrontation on the water … If the US is going to blockade China’s access to territories which it – rightly or wrongly – believes are its, then we are in for a confrontation.”

More likely, Townshend said, was that Trump would order the stepping-up of freedom of navigation and overflight operations, which have come increasingly close to features in the South China Sea claimed by China.

Despite fears about the direction US policy towards China may take under the new president, Blumenthal argued a more robust stance from Washington could in fact improve ties.

“My own view and my own experience in government is that when you are very clear with China about what your national interests are and what you are going to do in the region, they become very clear as well and say, ‘You know what, we’re going to stop pushing’ and the relationship in certain areas can improve.

“I think the most dangerous scenario was the one we were heading towards: a lot of tough talk on the South China Sea, but China continuing to encroach and the United States not really putting a lot of muscle behind the statements it was making.”

 

[ctg]

Despite the recent escalation in rhetoric, China is "not worried" about rising tensions with Washington, Hua said.

Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost all of the resource-rich region despite rival claims from Southeast Asian neighbours and has rapidly built reefs into artificial islands capable of hosting military planes.

Though it lags behind the US in raw military power, experts say China is counting on a strategy of deterrence to keep the world's most powerful navy at bay.

"Beijing knows that it cannot win a conventional frontal conflict with the US," Valerie Niquet of French think tank Foundation of Strategic Research told AFP.

"China is therefore seeking to develop capacities that would restore its freedom to manoeuvre by pushing Washington to hesitate before a potentially costly intervention in Asia."

On Tuesday leading Chinese newspaper the Global Times called for the country to expand its nuclear arsenal to "force the US to respect it".

Citing Trump's calls for the US to acquire more atomic weapons, the popular paper, known for its inflammatory rhetoric and hawkish views, said that Beijing's nuclear forces "must be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown" with it.

In recent days, Chinese social media has carried pictures purporting to show an advanced intercontinental ballistic missile system deployed in the northeast.

The Dongfeng-41 is reportedly a nuclear road-mobile missile thought to have a payload of 10-12 warheads and a range of 14,000 kilometres (8,700 miles), according to the Global Times.

The newspaper said some media claimed the People's Liberation Army leaked the photos as a warning to Trump.

"They think this is Beijing's response to Trump's provocative remarks on China," it added.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-not-back-down-south-china-sea-094926130.html

 

[aj77]

China tests new extremely long-range missile that could muscle the US out of the South China Sea

Image shows the unnamed Chinese long range missile that could be a big problem for the US.
dafeng cao via Twitter
Chinese media on Thursday indicated ongoing work on a new long range air-to-air missile that seems tailor-made to give the US Air Force problems when operating in the Pacific.

As Business Insider has previously covered, tensions between the US and China have been steadily ratcheting up over the last few years, and they have spikedsince Donald Trump took office after breaking with decades of tradition and taking a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

Advertisement:
Photographs posted on IHS Jane's and on Chinese media show China's J-11B and J-16 fighters carrying an as-of-yet unnamed missile that Air force researcher Fu Qianshao told Chinese state-run media has a range of almost 250 miles - much further than current Chinese or even US capabilities.

"The successful development of this potential new missile would be a major breakthrough," Reuters reports Fu as telling a Chinese state-run newspaper.

According to Fu, the missile would enable the People's Liberation Army Air Force to "send a super-maneuverable fighter jet with very long-range missiles to destroy those high-value targets, which are the 'eyes' of enemy jets."

The US's airborne early warning and control planes (AWACS), basically giant flying radars, are the "eyes" Fu refers to. These planes can detect enemy movements and give targeting data to US fighter jets and bombers. Without them, the US Air Force faces a steep disadvantage.

US Navy E-3 Hawkeye's fly above Japan's Mt. Fuji.
Lt. J.G. Andrew Leatherwood/US Navy


This echoes analysis provided to Business Insider by Australia Strategic Policy Institute's senior analyst Dr. Malcolm Davis, who told Business Insider that "the Chinese are recognizing they can attack critical airborne support systems like AWACS and refueling planes so they can't do their job ... If you can force the tankers back, then the F-35s and other platforms aren't sufficient because they can't reach their target."

The new Chinese missile could grant the PLA Air Force the ability to cripple the US's airborne support infrastructure, and figures into a larger anti-access area denial (A2AD) strategy the Chinese have been developing for years now.

In combination with China's massive, networked array of multiphase radarsacross artificial, militarized islands in the South China Sea, these missiles and the coming J-20 strike aircraft show that China has leveraged multiple technologies to side-step the US's emerging stealth capabilities.

According to Davis, the US's advantage over adversaries like China has faded over the last few years. "The calculus is changing because our adversaries are getting better," Davis said of China's emerging capabilities.

Older Chinese jets like the J-11s could be devastating with extremely long range missiles.
Xinhuanet


Davis said that adversaries like China and Russia are "starting to acquire information edge capabilities that [the US] has enjoyed since 1991 ... The other side had 20 years to think about counters to the Joint Strike Fighter (the F-35). Given the delays, by the time [the F-35] reaches full operation capability, how advanced are the Chinese and Russian systems going to be to counter it?"

As a possible solution, Davis recommended pairing fleets of unmanned vehicleswith the F-35 to give the US a quantitative advantage as Chinese advances, like the new missile and plane, erode the US's qualitative edge.

"We don't have time to be leisurely about the fifth generation aircraft," said Davis. "The other side is not going to stand still."




http://nordic.businessinsider.com/c...ce=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer&r=US&IR=T

 

[OldSkool]

Havaintoja ja kuvia Kiinan tukialuskelpoisesta early-warning -koneesta. http://defence-blog.com/news/new-ca...-early-warning-aircraft-spotted-in-china.html
Näyttää kuin olisi risteytetty E-2 ja An-26.

 

[Torrakko]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-not-back-down-south-china-sea-094926130.html

Alkaa tuo teksti olemaan paljon jyrkempää kuin viime vuosina.

 

[aj77]

Kiina testaa uutta monikärkiohjustaan. 10 ydinpaukkua ja tuntuu toimivan.

This month China tested a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile capable of raining 10 nuclear warheads upon its target at once. The test marks what is likely to be a preamble to a highly unnecessary diplomatic clash between two nations who don’t need any more reasons to fight.


The DF-5C missile, which is a newer variant of China’s DF-5 ICBM, was launched earlier in January from the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in central China and landed in an impact range in the desert in western China, according to the Washington Free Beacon. Mounted on the missile were 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, each one containing a nuclear warhead capable of leveling an entire city.

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/china-tests-long-range-missile-with-10-warheads-amid-te-1791843658

 

[ctg]

The United States and China will fight a war within the next 10 years over islands in the South China Sea, and “there’s no doubt about that”. At the same time, the US will be in another “major” war in the Middle East.

Those are the views – nine months ago at least – of one of the most powerful men in Donald Trump’s administration, Steve Bannon, the former head of far-right news website Breitbart who is now chief strategist at the White House.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...non-donald-trump-war-south-china-sea-no-doubt

 

[ctg]

BEIJING remains braced for a war with the US and its new President Donald Trump as it announced a second aircraft carrier is to be based in the South China Sea.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...carrier-South-China-Sea-tensions-Donald-Trump

Construction of The Shandong, China's first indigenous aircraft carrier which was named after a province in China's east coast, began in 2014.

Three years later, the carrier is said to be “taking shape” - and a report suggests the vessel could be bound for the South China Sea.

Being built at the eastern port of Dalian, the ship is currently being built at a rapid pace to ensure it is ready to handle “complicated situations” that have arisen since Donald Trump’s inauguration last month.

 

[ctg]

Those weapons, however, were potential game-changers. While they failed to reverse the tide of the war in Nazi Germany's favor, they laid the groundwork for decades of subsequent innovation and even military application. To be sure, they are the progenitors of China's satellite-guided anti-warship missiles. As a land-based military power, China can conduct its anti-shipping activities safely from inland bases-bases that would ultimately be difficult to locate and strike once found even despite the US possessing long-range strike capabilities.

Despite the advantage the US holds over China in terms of military equipment and operating capabilities, control of the air can be sought from two completely disparate points. For the US, control of the skies around China is determined by in part by its naval power but one still needs to consider American air bases in Guam, Okinawa, the Japanese Mainland, and South Korea. All possess US Air Force-operated bases on their soil. We have well seen the reaction of the US toward the rise of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) (formerly called the 2nd Artillery Corps), which altered US defense strategy in the region. For China, control of the skies can be realized by overwhelming US naval forces from its mainland. China can attempt to achieve airpower indirectly through its land-based military capabilities, at least in principle. Air superiority could effectively follow.

Although the technologies that were introduced during the second global war of the 20th century are abundantly evident in many modern militaries, like those of the US and China, practices, responses, and defensive measures in the wake of their use has not followed in equal measure. While many of these weapons have not been fully tested in actual combat, defending against the force of such weapons would likely come at a much higher price.

China and certainly the US, the United Kingdom (UK), and Russia, among others, have much to owe to German theoreticians and Nazi scientists, who helped produce an impressive array of (if even half-baked or pencilled) Wunderwaffen. Unlike Nazi Germany, during its shining period of military campaigning and expansion, China has the financial and economic structures to continue investing in newer and more advanced technologies inspired by the Nazis, build thousands more weapons than Hitler could have ever dreamed of, and can laud time as one of its closest and most reliable allies.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/The_Legacy_of_Nazi_Germanys_Wonder_Weapons_999.html

 

[Nurkantakanen]

A War Between the U.S. and China Would Be World War III (And Might Be Hard to Shut Off)

February 2, 2017

The window for war between the United States and China will, in all likelihood, last for a long time. Preventing war will require tremendous skill and acumen from diplomats and policymakers. Similarly, the demands of positioning either side for victory will continue to tax diplomatic, military, and technological resources for the foreseeable future. At the moment, however, we shouldn’t forget that China and the United States constitute the heart of one of the most productive economic regions the world has ever seen.

How does the unthinkable happen? As historians continue to contemplate the various historic anniversaries around World War I through next year, the question of unexpected wars looms large. What series of events could lead to war in East Asia, and how would that war play out?

Robert Farley is a senior lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. His work includes military doctrine, national security, and maritime affairs. He blogs at Lawyers, Guns and Money and Information Dissemination and The Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter: @drfarls.

This first appeared in 2014 and is being reposted due to reader interest.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...s-china-would-be-world-war-iii-might-be-19287