Korean Sota Osa II ?

[scip10]

Kiina haluaa rajan taakse jakautuneen Korean jonka pohjoisosassa on ystävällinen hallinto eikä ulkomaista sotavoimaa. Se ei halua naapuriin veristä suursotaa, yhdistynyttä länsisuuntautunutta Koreaa eikä ainakaan amerikkalaisia joukkoja.

Kim sotkee keulimisellaan status quon jonka vuoksi Kiina on lisännyt painetta Pohjois-Korean suuntaan.

 

[baikal]

katsokaa piruuttan lamojen aikoja ja isojen sotien ajankohtia.

Ja tämä jatkuu läpi kirjoitetun historian. Joku mekanismi tähän liittyy, tai mekanismeja.

 

[KaneA]

(LEAD) One soldier killed, six injured in blast during artillery drill
2017/08/18 17:06

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(ATTN; CHANGES slug, headline; ADDS more info)

SEOUL, Aug. 16 (Yonhap) -- One Army solider was killed and six others were injured Friday in an explosion during an artillery firing drill, the military said.

The blast occurred at an Army shooting range in the border town of Cherwon at 3:00 p.m.

Seven servicemen were taken to a hospital and one died during treatment, an Army officer said.

"An unidentified explosion took place during the drill, injuring some people," he said.

A probe into the cause of the incident is underway, he added. The firing drill involved some 10 artillery guns.

(END)

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/08/18/0301000000AEN20170818008352315.html

Sabotaasi?



N. Korea media warns of 'catastrophe' over joint S. Korea-U.S. drills

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/08/17/0401000000AEN20170817010700320.html

 

[ctg]

The US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has insisted that Washington is still considering using force against North Korea, in a public challenge to claims by the White House’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon, that “there is no military solution” to the nuclear crisis.

Following talks with Japan’s foreign and defence ministers in Washington on Thursday, Tillerson said the US was seeking a peaceful solution to the standoff with Pyongyang but reserved the right to use military force if political and economic pressure failed to curb the regime’s nuclear ambitions.

The US was “prepared militarily” to respond, he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...annon-claim-that-military-strike-is-off-table

 

[Sissi]

Poistettu

 

[KaneA]

CS chief nominee expects air superiority to be secured in 3 days in peninsula contingency

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/08/18/0301000000AEN20170818004752315.html

Elikkä maanantaina alkaa jenkkien ja EK:n sotaharjoitukset. Olen erittäin yllättynyt mikä PK:n puolelta ei tule jonkinlaista protestia / provokaatiota ensi viikon aikana.

 

[Gyllis1]

Kiinasta on vuotanut sellaista tietoa, että heidän simulaatioidensa pohjalta on arvioitu, että vähemmän ajanmukaisella hävittäjäkalustollakin pärjää, jos ylivoima on kolminkertainen.

USAF hävittäjäkalusto tällä hetkellä on luokkaa ~1700 konetta, laivastolla ~ 700.

Mikäli nuo kaksi lähtevät hippasille, onko kiinalaisilla mahdollisuutta määrälliseen ylivoimaan (puhumattakaan kolminkertaisesta) muualla kuin omassa ilmatilassaan?

 

[runtik]

Jos tulisi tilanne, että Kiina kokisi itseään kohtaan existentiaalista uhkaa, niin 5000 hävittäjää valmistuisi aika nopeasti.

Kiinan teollisuuden tuotantokapasiteetti on kokonaisuudessaan jäätävä. Se kannattaa suhteuttaa neuvostoliiton tuotantoon vuosina 1941-1945. Tekivät vuodessa silti silloin yli 40 000 erilaista lentohärveliä.

Vaikka nykyiset sotakoneet ovat monimutkaisempia tehdä, on myös Kiinan teollinen voima vuonna 2017 jotain aivan muuta kuin Neuvostoliitolla oli vuonna 1945.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_aircraft_production

USAF hävittäjäkalusto tällä hetkellä on luokkaa ~1700 konetta, laivastolla ~ 700.

Mikäli nuo kaksi lähtevät hippasille, onko kiinalaisilla mahdollisuutta määrälliseen ylivoimaan (puhumattakaan kolminkertaisesta) muualla kuin omassa ilmatilassaan?

 

[Mustaruuti]

Jos tulisi tilanne, että Kiina kokisi itseään kohtaan existentiaalista uhkaa, niin 5000 hävittäjää valmistuisi aika nopeasti.

Kiinan teollisuuden tuotantokapasiteetti on kokonaisuudessaan jäätävä. Se kannattaa suhteuttaa neuvostoliiton tuotantoon vuosina 1941-1945. Tekivät vuodessa silti silloin yli 40 000 erilaista lentohärveliä.

Vaikka nykyiset sotakoneet ovat monimutkaisempia tehdä, on myös Kiinan teollinen voima vuonna 2017 jotain aivan muuta kuin Neuvostoliitolla oli vuonna 1945.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_aircraft_production

Öö, mites jenkkien tuotantokapasiteetti? 2. MS tai nykyään?

 

[runtik]

Öö, mites jenkkien tuotantokapasiteetti? 2. MS tai nykyään?

Toki jenkit ovat vielä edellä, mutta Kiinallakin on omat vahvuutensa. Huipputeknologian tuotannossa jenkit ovat edellä, mutta bulkissa luultavasti Kiina on jo kovempi pelaaja. Lisäksi kommunistisilla mailla on melkoinen kyky ohjata tuotantoaan uusiksi radikaalimmin kuin kapitalistisilla mailla.

No miten tämä sivuseikka liittyy Pohjois-Korean tilanteeseen? Siten, että niin kauan kuin Kiina haluaa puolustaa ja tukea Pohjois-Koreaa, ei sitä voi sotilaallisesti lyödä millään järkevillä tappioilla. Lännen teknologiaylivoimaa vastaan Kiinalla ja Pohjois-Korealla on merkittävä määrä peruskalustoa ja kyky kestää tappioita.

Sotasuunnitelmissa ei kannata laskea kolmen päivän sisällä saatavaan pysyvään ilmaherruuteen.

 

[ctg]

There is a way out, but this means acknowledging just how bad the current situation is. Because Pyongyang relies on nuclear weapons for its security, it won’t give them up voluntarily. The only plausible way to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is through military force, which would trigger a war that would likely kill millions.

That fact hasn’t been lost on senior White House officials. In a conversation that appears to have been mistaken for off the record, Steve Bannon, Trump’s chief strategist, told a reporter that “there’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it … they got us.”

That leaves the United States with very few options other than to accept a deterrence relationship with North Korea. As distasteful as this sounds, it might not be all that bad, as it is key to much-needed nuclear restraint.

https://warisboring.com/breaking-down-the-north-korea-crisis/

But the Western press apparently did not know one crucial fact: The rocket carried a reduced payload and, therefore, was able to reach a much higher altitude than would have been possible if it had instead carried the weight associated with the type of first-generation atomic bomb North Korea might possess. Experts quoted by the press apparently assumed that the rocket had carried a payload large enough to simulate the weight of such an atomic bomb, in the process incorrectly assigning a near-ICBM status to a rocket that was in reality far less capable.

Only three and a half weeks later, on July 28, there was a second launch of the same type of missile, this time at night, Korean time. The rocket flew approximately the same powered flight trajectory that it had on July 3 (or July 4 in North Korea), this time, however, reaching a higher altitude—a reported 3,725 kilometers. This longer flight path led to yet more unwarranted conclusions that the continental United States was now directly under threat of nuclear attack by North Korea. Actually, however, in this second case, by our calculations, the second stage of the so-called ICBM carried an even smaller payload and tumbled into the atmosphere at night over the Sea of Japan. The spectacular night-reentry of the rocket—what was almost certainly the heavy front-end of the nearly empty upper stage—created an impressive meteoric display that some experts mistook for the breakup of a failed warhead reentry vehicle.

From the point of view of North Korean political leadership, the general reaction to the July 4 and July 28 launches could not have been better. The world suddenly believed that the North Koreans had an ICBM that could reach the West Coast of the United States and beyond. But calculations we have made—based on detailed study of the type and size of the rocket motors used, the flight times of the stages of the rockets, the propellant likely used, and other technical factors—indicate that these rockets actually carried very small payloads that were nowhere near the weight of a nuclear warhead of the type North Korea could have, or could eventually have. These small payloads allowed the rockets to be lofted to far higher altitudes than they would have if loaded with a much-heavier warhead, creating the impression that North Korea was on the cusp of achieving ICBM capability.

http://thebulletin.org/north-korea’s-“not-quite”-icbm-can’t-hit-lower-48-states11012

 

[KaneA]

(CNN)North Korea warned Sunday that the upcoming US-South Korea military exercises are "reckless behavior driving the situation into the uncontrollable phase of a nuclear war."

Pyongyang also declared that its army can target the United States anytime, and neither Guam, Hawaii nor the US mainland can "dodge the merciless strike."

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/20/asia/north-korea-south-korea-us-military-drills/index.html

 

[ctg]

Seoul and Washington have begun annual war games, prompting the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, to warn North Korea against using them as an excuse to intensify the “vicious cycle” of tensions.

Tens of thousands of South Korean and US troops are taking part in the Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military drills, a largely computer-simulated exercise that runs for two weeks in the South.

The exercises are viewed by nuclear-armed Pyongyang as a provocative rehearsal for invasion, and it always meets them with threats of strong military counteraction. North Korea said recently it was considering firing a salvo of missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam.

Moon described the exercises as “purely defensive in nature” and told Pyongyang it “must not use it as an excuse to launch provocations that will worsen the situation”.

“North Korea must understand its repeated provocations are what is forcing South Korea and the US to conduct the joint defensive drills, which in turn keeps the vicious cycle going,” the president told a cabinet meeting.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/21/south-korea-warns-north-seoul-us-war-games-begin

 

[KaneA]

http://www.sss.fi/2017/08/kiina-kehottaa-usata-ja-etela-koreaa-keskeyttamaan-sotaharjoituksen/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40957725

 

[ctg]

Eikä?

North Korea has warned Australia it has committed a “suicidal act” by committing its troops to help the US in any conflict over Pyongyang’s nuclear program and by joining military exercises with US and South Korean forces.

The official KCNA news agency noted that the Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, had recently vowed his country’s military would fight alongside the US if the latter was attacked by North Korea.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...tralia-that-supporting-trump-is-a-suicide-act

Huvittaa ajatella kengurunpurijoita ahdikossa PKn suunnalla. Ainoastaan jos kiina lähtee hyökkäämään, ja PK tulee mukana, niin uskon tähän satuun. Muuten paksu poika saa kaivaa navastansa paremman tarinan.

 

[ctg]

Ballistisen ampuminen australian suuntaan ei ole ihan samanlainen tarina kuin jenkkien kuurmoottaminen, koska radan saaminen aikaan on hankalaa maapallon pyörimisen ja vetovoiman johdosta. Brittien Skylonin matkustaja version rata Heathrowilta Melbourneen menee pohjoisnavan kautta, eikä suoraan kaakkoon kuten tehdään ilmakehässä. Operaatio on paljon vaikeampi kuin mitä PK on tähän mennessä esittänyt maailmalle.

 

[ctg]

Teams of modified MQ-9 Reaper drones are being prepped to keep airborne eyes on North Korea, ready to track missile launches and feed crucial data to Navy interceptor warships far offshore, the drones’ maker says.

A June 2016 missile defense drill called Pacific Dragon, which brought together the militaries of Japan, the U.S., and South Korea, showed that a pair of modified MQ-9 Reaper drones could effectively track a ballistic missile. The successful tracking was due in part to special Multi-Spectral Targeting System C sensors from Raytheon aboard the drones. Their electro-optical infrared sensors can detect the heat of a missile as it enters its boost phase. A pair of these modified drones can triangulate on the plume to obtain 3D targeting data, helping interceptor ships draw a better bead on the flying missiles.

Now General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, which makes the Reaper, is working to improve its ability to contribute to missile defense.

“Let’s just say that within the next few years, there’s lots of improvements in the tracking capability. The accuracy in the early part of the boost phase that this provides is game-changing,” company president David Alexander told reporters last week at the company’s headquarters here. “If I say any more, I might get into trouble.”

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is looking to do more testing in coming years, according to a separate source familiar with the matter. MDA wants to reduce to one the number of Reapers needed to track enemy launches, likely by adding a tracking laser to keep tabs on the soaring missile, the source said.

Further into the future, Alexander said that the company’s large, jet-powered Predator C “Avenger” drone could add a layer of surveillance and targeting data to North Korea — or anywhere else the military might want one. Originally designed for the U.S. Navy’s aborted Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike, or UCLASS program, the Avenger and its 3,000-pound-capacity weapons bay could loft the massive, much longer-ranged l MS-177A sensor package (the MS stands for multi-spectral) from United Technologies.

“That would be a sensor so big you couldn’t really put it on an MQ-9,” Alexander said.

Competitor Northrop Grumman is using the MS-177 in its $222.7 million Global Hawk drone for the Air Force.

Alexander said a Predator C, equipped for an MS-177 and priced at between $12 million to $15 million, might be able to do a similar job. And in the future, a similar long-range sensor with “very large aperture, so if you wanted to fly this airplane along the border of someone else’s country and look deep in,” said Alexander.

http://www.defenseone.com/technolog...am-north-korean-missiles/140400/?oref=d-river

 

[ctg]

Sanctions and the worst drought for almost two decades threaten to cause severe hardship for millions of people in North Korea, while the country’s leadership continues to plough scarce resources into its missile and nuclear programmes, according to UN agencies and those with contacts in the impoverished nation.

A drought that ravaged crops earlier this summer will leave the North unable to properly feed many of its people, including soldiers in the country’s million-strong army, the groups have warned.

While living standards have improved for some North Koreans under Kim Jong-un’s leadership, many of the country’s 25 million people face a struggle to secure enough food while others risk losing their jobs due to sanctions, according to Jiro Ishimaru, a Japanese documentary maker who runs a network of citizen journalists inside North Korea.

“For one thing, there are too many soldiers to feed,” Ishimaru, whose contacts are equipped with contraband mobile phones, told the Guardian at his Asia Press office in the western Japanese city of Osaka.

“And corruption is rife, so that by the time senior military officers have taken their share of food provisions to sell for profit on the private market, there is next to nothing left for ordinary soldiers.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-drought-pushes-millions-towards-malnutrition

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator, has ordered his scientists to step up production of warheads and solid fuel rocket engines for long-range ballistic missiles.

Requests in recent days from both South Korea and the United States for Pyongyang to halt its provocations and return to the discussion table appear to have fallen on deaf ears after Mr Kim was shown making his demand during a visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defence Sciences.

"He instructed the institute to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips" through the use of carbon compounds, the Korean Central News Agency reported on Wednesday. Pictures show Mr Kim touring the research facility, trailed by uniformed officials assiduously scribbling in notebooks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...orders-production-warhead-tipsas-north-korea/

 

[Leaderwolf]

Minkähän verran noita automaattisia sentry guneja mahtaa rajalla olla? Lähinnä noita konekiväärillä tai kranaattikonekiväärillä varustettuja Samsung SGR-A1 robotteja kai? Niiden kun oli tarkoitus tasata eroa sotilaiden määrässä.

 

[ctg]

So, what can the Norks actually achieve: do they have working nukes, and can they reach the US? Realistically, the chances of either North Korea or the US slinging missiles at each other are slim. China says it will retaliate if America launches a preemptive strike against North Korea, filling the skies with warheads aimed at US cities. So it's, as we say around here, suboptimal even for Trump to wipe North Korea off the map. However, China said it will take a neutral stance if the US responds to a Nork launch, so it would be pure suicide for Kim Jong-Un to try to hit America. And he doesn't want death, well, not for himself: he wants sanctions lifted and respect from world leaders.

And whatever happens, if North Korea is going down, it's taking South Korea with it. And no one wants the blood of Seoul on their hands.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/08/22/nork_nukes_could_emp_us/?page=1

So far, the answer to the question, can North Korea reach California with a rocket, is: probably possibly. Can it actually survive reentry and nuke the Golden State? maybe.

But there is another option for the North Koreans, and one that could potentially do far more damage than a single nuclear strike. Before reentry temperatures kick in, the bomb could be detonated in the upper atmosphere – and the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) generated would do more damage than a single missile could ever manage. Emitting an EMP blast over the US West Coast, with Silicon Valley within its grasp, or further inland, would be extremely bad news for our future on this planet.

In other words, Kim Jong-Un doesn't have to strike America, setting off a cliched mushroom cloud: using EMP high in the skies to wreck our electronics and communications could be, potentially, enough to upturn society and put us on the path to global thermonuclear war.