"A very, very high priority"
According to the recently retired Chief of Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces Wayne Eyre, expanding its submarine fleet would be a major asset for Ottawa in the current military context
“I come from the military. I’m an infantry officer. And you won’t find a bigger believer in submarines,” General Wayne Eyre says bluntly.
La Presse caught up with the officer a few weeks before he retires as chief of staff of the Canadian Armed Forces on July 18. It was an opportunity for him to talk about the most pressing challenges facing his organization. The acquisition of modern submersibles to replace the Royal Canadian Navy’s old, outdated and often broken-down craft is certainly one of them.
“For me, investing in submarines is a very, very high priority,” he insists.
Why a priority?
“We’re seeing a fundamental change in the character of warfare, the way wars are fought. We see it in Ukraine, and we see it in [other countries’] investments,” the officer explains.
“You now have constant surveillance capabilities. If you see something, you can target it and destroy it, from increasing distance,” he says.
He cites the massive use of drones and missiles in Ukraine as well as the investments of several countries in surveillance systems and long-range missiles, “including hypersonic missiles developed by China.” Faced with this reality, modern armies seek to reduce their visual or electronic signature, to camouflage their equipment, to make them undetectable.
Submarines capable of operating discreetly across oceans, without being seen or targeted, are therefore becoming a major asset, according to Canadian General Wayne Eyre. Especially for a country like Canada, bordered by three oceans and with an economy highly dependent on maritime trade, he adds.
The next submersible purchased by Canada will have to check several boxes, according to the general. First, it will be necessary to make a realistic choice, which respects Canada’s ability to pay. The officer has long since written off nuclear-powered submarines, which would require new port facilities and a complete reorganization of the Canadian Navy.
He believes that it will also require a product that can travel very long distances, given the size of Canada’s coastline, and that can operate in the very specific conditions of the Arctic. Above all, the submarine will have to be deliverable “as quickly as possible.”
“The speed of delivery will be crucial,” says the officer.
A versatile tool
At the NATO summit in Washington in early July, Canada announced that it was launching the process to formally solicit industry for the purchase of 12 conventionally powered submarines. More specific criteria should be made public in the fall.
In its press release on the subject, the Department of Defence noted that Russian submarines “are widely probing the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific oceans” while China is “rapidly expanding its submarine fleet.”
“The new fleet will allow Canada to protect its sovereignty in a changing world, while making valuable, high-end contributions to the security of our NATO partners and allies,” said Minister Bill Blair.
That contribution will go far beyond simply deterring attack, said Professor Andrea Charron, director of the University of Manitoba’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies.
“We have a vision that comes from old Cold War movies like The Hunt for Red October. We see submarines as killing machines, designed to deploy ballistic missiles. But submarines are very versatile tools, they can do all sorts of things. They can track adversaries, intercept electronic signals for intelligence purposes. They can also be great for diplomacy: when they come into a port, it sends a signal,” she said.
Visits to Europe and Asia
Representatives of the Canadian Navy, the Department of National Defence and Public Services and Procurement Canada “visited Europe and Asia to meet with representatives of foreign countries, companies and navies that have submarines in service, under construction or in the design phase that could meet Canada’s needs,” the Department of National Defence confirmed to La Presse.
The companies being considered at this stage, according to federal authorities, are TKMS (Germany), Hanwha and Hyundai (Korea), Navantia (Spain), Naval Group (France), Kawasaki and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) and Saab (Sweden). Each has its flagship submarine to offer (see other text).
Some of the manufacturers are already heavily involved in the race to win the contract, the value of which is unknown to this day. The Ottawa Citizen has published internal military documents that estimated it at $60 billion, but experts have put the figure up to twice that high in various publications.
Public registrations in the Lobbyists Registry show that the Germans, Swedes and Koreans have made numerous approaches to elected officials, senior civil servants, senators and representatives of the Prime Minister’s Office or the Privy Council Office to discuss the upcoming contract.
To plead their case in Ottawa, the Korean manufacturers are working with lobbyists who have previously worked for the Royal Canadian Navy: Norman Jolin, a former captain who once served with NATO, and Dave Hatherall, a former head of procurement.
The German firm TKMS is counting on the help of the lobbying firm Hill and Knowlton.
As for the Swedes at Saab, their representations to the Canadian government so far have been made by their Canadian president himself, Simon Carroll, a former Australian naval officer and Gulf War veteran.
The other manufacturers in the running could pick up the pace soon.
Political pieces
“It’s very competitive! It’s still quite rare for so many manufacturers from different countries to offer their services,” says Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, European correspondent for the specialist publication Defense News, who is particularly responsible for covering military acquisitions.
According to the Quebec expert, the fact that Canada waited a long time to replenish its fleet opens the door to greater competition among potential suppliers. Because when it comes to submarines, “we don’t have a long history of partnership with any one country.”
The choice of the country of origin of the next submersibles will probably have an impact that goes beyond a simple commercial transaction, believes Ms. Gosselin-Malo.
“It’s often said that submarines are one of the most political pieces of equipment to choose,” she emphasizes.
“It involves a significant sharing of classified information, it requires a lot of coordination between the two countries, which will often lead to other contracts, for maintenance or other things.”