Katse SE aasiaan päin, lepo. Kirje Taiwanista.
The trade situation is very simple. My back of the napkin calculations are that Americans will suffer a 12.5% cost-of-living increase if the tariffs are all passed. Trump is finally beginning to realize this. He is desperate to get a deal or anything he can spin as a victory. The problem is that Trump’s trade policies are simple-minded and ineffective. All of industrial China is enacting “Plan B” right now, which is basically finding/building factories outside of China where they can launder/wash the country-of-origin on Chinese made goods for final export to the USA. I’m based in Taiwan and the Chinese are desperately seeking “manufacturing” capacity here. My guess is that these are going to be “strawman” facilities. They will be stocked with enough production equipment to satisfy any inspection, but their main purpose will be to remove the “Made in China” stickers on goods and replace them with “Made in Taiwan” stickers.
This is going on in Vietnam, Thailand, Korea, Singapore and all of SE Asia. China will continue to be the industrial manufactory of the world. The goods will just all go to an intermediate country to be “washed” clean before final export to America. Trump isn’t smart enough to tariff ALL incoming goods. He’s targeting individual countries. It just won’t work in a global economy. The Communists know how to beat Trump. Laws/contracts are meaningless. Enforcement and obligations are carried out through “guanxi”. Current Chinese negotiations, to me, seem more like a polite effort to rebuff the opposing party. If I saw this in a Chinese/American business negotiation, I’d tell the American side to stop wasting money – the deal isn’t going to work because the Chinese side doesn’t want it to work. Passive-aggressiveness is the epitome of Chinese business etiquette.
Chinese Communist goals:
1. Delay as long as possible, blaming everything on Trump.
2. Set up manufacturing “laundering” facilities can be quietly and quickly set up to continue trade. Business as usual.
3. Give Trump some meaningless ego-bauble he can spin to his base while completely ignoring him. This gives more time to set up “laundering” facilities in the rest of the world.
The trade situation is very simple. My back of the napkin calculations are that Americans will suffer a 12.5% cost-of-living increase if the tariffs are all passed. Trump is finally beginning to realize this. He is desperate to get a deal or anything he can spin as a victory. The problem is that Trump’s trade policies are simple-minded and ineffective. All of industrial China is enacting “Plan B” right now, which is basically finding/building factories outside of China where they can launder/wash the country-of-origin on Chinese made goods for final export to the USA. I’m based in Taiwan and the Chinese are desperately seeking “manufacturing” capacity here. My guess is that these are going to be “strawman” facilities. They will be stocked with enough production equipment to satisfy any inspection, but their main purpose will be to remove the “Made in China” stickers on goods and replace them with “Made in Taiwan” stickers.
This is going on in Vietnam, Thailand, Korea, Singapore and all of SE Asia. China will continue to be the industrial manufactory of the world. The goods will just all go to an intermediate country to be “washed” clean before final export to America. Trump isn’t smart enough to tariff ALL incoming goods. He’s targeting individual countries. It just won’t work in a global economy. The Communists know how to beat Trump. Laws/contracts are meaningless. Enforcement and obligations are carried out through “guanxi”. Current Chinese negotiations, to me, seem more like a polite effort to rebuff the opposing party. If I saw this in a Chinese/American business negotiation, I’d tell the American side to stop wasting money – the deal isn’t going to work because the Chinese side doesn’t want it to work. Passive-aggressiveness is the epitome of Chinese business etiquette.
Chinese Communist goals:
1. Delay as long as possible, blaming everything on Trump.
2. Set up manufacturing “laundering” facilities can be quietly and quickly set up to continue trade. Business as usual.
3. Give Trump some meaningless ego-bauble he can spin to his base while completely ignoring him. This gives more time to set up “laundering” facilities in the rest of the world.
Kyllä ne sitten lopulta kyllästyivät kyselemään ja laittoivat koneelle jonkin merkinnän että "harmiton"..tai "oman joukkueen porukkaa". 
Eiku..?
