https://politik.watson.de/internati...er-putin-plan-fuer-ukraine-bis-2026-enthuellt
Russia: Secret Putin plan for Ukraine by 2026 revealed
December 15, 2023, 5:33 p.m
Anna Von Stefanelli
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There has been war in Ukraine since February 2022, i.e. for almost 22 months. Hopes for an early end to the conflict are rather limited. At his first press conference on Russian television on Thursday, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin once again made it clear that Russia would continue until Russia's goals were met.
Officially, Putin speaks of a “denazification” of Ukraine – a pretext for the “special military operation,” as he calls the invasion.
According to a recent report, Putin is working on a detailed plan for Ukraine in the coming years. Accordingly, he is proceeding with an unscrupulous strategy. The Russian president is relying on the West's declining aid to Ukraine and so-called sham negotiations. He wants to gradually expand his power.
There has been war in Ukraine for almost 22 months. image: ap / evgeniy maloletka
Putin has ambitious plans for Ukraine
Vladimir Putin actually expected a lightning victory when he invaded Ukraine in February 2022. But nothing came of it because of the bitter resistance from the smaller neighboring country. Instead, the front line is now almost frozen.
There are small territorial gains on both sides only at the expense of immense losses. But that is apparently about to change.
According to information from "
Bild ", Russia is working on a new medium-term war plan for Ukraine. According to intelligence reports, Putin plans to gain complete control over the entire Donbas,
including the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, by the end of 2024.
Russia currently controls around half of the Donetsk region and around 95 percent of the Luhansk region. Major cities such as Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Pokrovsk are currently under Ukrainian control, but are expected to be conquered by the end of next year.
Russia wants to take over several areas in Ukraine
However, according to the report, the plan extends beyond 2024.
According to intelligence sources, Moscow plans to conquer large parts of the Zaporizhia, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions in 2025 and 2026, with a particular focus on the city of Kharkiv. An insider tells "Bild" that Russia wants to conquer all of the areas to the left of the Dnieper within 36 months. According to Putin's wishes, the river will probably become the new front.
Ukrainian soldiers stand on a country road in the liberated area in the Kharkiv region. image: ap / kostiantyn liberov
In the south of Ukraine, however, Russia shows lower ambitions, according to “Bild” information. Despite Putin's annexation of the entire Kherson region in autumn 2022, Moscow only aims to hold the current front along the Dnieper River. A Ukrainian advance towards Crimea should be prevented.
“Sham negotiations”: Putin pursues unscrupulous tactics
The Russian strategy is based, among other things, on speculation that the war economy will continue to grow and become more effective every month. In addition, it is assumed that Russia can deploy an additional 100,000 military servicemen and mobilized people in Ukraine every year; in technical jargon, this approach is also called "low-threshold mobilization."
In addition, according to intelligence information, Putin is probably hoping that support from the West, including Germany, will increasingly weaken. Another basis of the plan is the possible reduction or termination of military support to Ukraine by a future US president.
US President Joe Biden is currently calling for further US aid to Ukraine. image: ap / andrew harnik
According to the report, experts also believe that an approach reminiscent of past Russian actions is likely. The Kremlin could once again rely on sham negotiations while at the same time taking military action. According to an insider, this tactic was used as early as 2015, as “Bild” reports. In Minsk, Putin negotiated “peace” with Angela Merkel. At the same time, Russia captured ten villages and the strategically important city of Debaltseve.
According to the report, the latest statements by Russian Foreign Office spokeswoman Maria Zakharova could also be part of a diversionary tactic.
She called on Ukraine to “recognize the new territorial realities” and withdraw troops from Russian-controlled areas. An “end to the fighting” could be considered.
The war in Ukraine has already claimed thousands of lives. image: ap / libkos
Experts warn of Putin's actions in Ukraine
Military expert Thomas Theiner suspects to "Bild" that the Russian plan is based on the belief that Western support for Ukraine is waning. He says about it:
"Only if the Ukrainians no longer receive weapons and ammunition from the West can the Russians implement their extremely ambitious goals. The consideration also shows that Russia has never backed away from its original plan to bring large parts of Ukraine under its control."
Military expert Nico Lange also warns that Russia's long-term military goal is to bring large parts of Ukraine under its control. He emphasizes the crucial role of continued arms supplies in stopping Russia's ambitions.
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