IF Russia has been under the unprecedentedly wide sanctions for almost two years
BUT It has increased its output of missiles
THEN The
sanctions have been targeted wrong all along
Now that is because the policy makers have limited understanding of how the war economy works
The astonishing inefficiency in undermining the Russian military production makes more sense, considering that the sanctions have not been based on any serious understanding of the Russian military manufacturing base, of its rationales and tradeoffs, bottlenecks and chokepoints
To target the military production, you first need to identify its bottlenecks. And to identify the bottlenecks you must understand how the production chain works, both in theory
and in practice. Now the latter requires a serious OSINT investigation
And that is what we did
We have investigated:
· 4 missiles producing corporations
· 28 key production facilities
· A broad range of sources varying from the official TV propaganda to the PhD dissertations by the military industrial executives
What we found:
CNC Machines: EMCO
, Haas
, Kovosvit Mas
, DMG MORI
, Hermle
, GF
, Tos Varnsdorf
, Skoda
, Hyundai
, Walter
, Schaublin
, Index
, Parpas
, Hardinge
, Fanuc
, TDZ Turn
, Leadwell
, VDF Boehringer
, Doosan
, Heller
, Mazak
, Okuma
, Kitamura
, Hanwha
, Trumpf
, Biglia
, NSH
, Spinner
, Prima
, Anca
, Techni Waterjet
, LVD
, Mazak
, Stan
, DMTG
+ minor producers, mostly Western European & Taiwanese
CNC Controllers: Fanuc
, Siemens
, Heidenhain
PLC Controllers: Siemens
Measurement: Renishaw
, Hexagon
, Zeiss
, Bosch
Tooling: Sandvik
, Seco
, Guhring
, Erowa
, Walter
, Zoller
, Kyocera
, Tungaloy
, Korloy
Iscar
, Eroglu
Integrated solutions: Siemens
, Dassault
, PTC
, Ansys
NB: Siemens is the only company in the world capable of providing the all-in-one CAD to CNC solution of the military tier, minimising the human factor at any stage of the production process
If I were to name one critical bottleneck in the Russian military manufacturing, I would choose
Siemens Teamcenter. The most sophisticated enterprises in Russia including aircraft/aircraft engine/missile producers developed the overreliance on the foolproof Siemens solutions
Resurrected from the ashes of the 1990s, they had neither the Soviet craftsmanship, nor tacit knowledge, nor vocational training system. To compensate for the uneven (low) quality of their workforce and reduce variance in product they had no choice but to overrely on Siemens